Follow Paul on Twitter: @paulstewart22
Famed cartoonist Charles M. Schultz was a devoted sports fan, especially baseball, football and hockey. As a matter of fact, Schultz himself played hockey until near the end of his life and is
inductee in the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame. Many of his “Peanuts” comic strips were set against a sports backdrop.
One of my favorite sports-related cartoons has know-it-all Lucy ticking off a dizzying array of statistics to explain to Charlie Brown why their baseball team lost every game.
Charlie Brown listens patiently at first and then becomes increasingly exasperated. Finally, he exclaims “Lucy, tell your statistics to shut up!”
Baseball is a sport that actually does lend itself to detailed statistical analysis. Although it is a team game, it is one designed around a series of one-on-one tactical battles. Hockey is the ultimate team game and is also a much faster-moving game.
As such, I am not a fan of all the newfangled individual statistics that have started to invade hockey. I get the idea behind them -- things like Corsi and Fenwick aren't rocket science -- but they often present a rather distorted picture from actual hockey.
There are no wins and losses awarded based on shot attempts and there's no losing team that takes solace in having out-possessed the puck in a game or playoff series. Players with bad "Corsi numbers" can still be valuable to their teams bigger objectives, and ones who "drive possession" according to the boutique stats may be getting scratched for good reason.
Listen, I may be a dinosaur but I am no simpleton. I wasn't handed my degree from the University of Pennsylvania based on my hockey playing.
When I say that I put no merit in all the boutique stats, it is not because I don't understand them. I reject them because, as someone who was been around the game all my life (and who played it and refereed it in the top leagues in the world), I have a pretty damn good grasp on the difference between how the game can be sliced and diced on paper and how it's actually played and officiated on the ice.
Statistics may have a certain persuasive power for some. To me, there is good reason why Mark Twain's famous quote that there are "lies, damn lies and statistics" resonates more strongly than ever today.
In hockey, the only statistics that truly matter are team ones: wins and losses, goals for and goals against. For individual players, once you take their particular role on the team into account, the longevity reflected in their games played and seasons in the game -- a number derived by simple addition -- tells you far more than any spreadsheet.
The latest incarnation of so-called hockey analytics is derive "advanced stats" for officials. Some folks actually take the time to compile and analyze things such as total penalties called (and then break them down between home and visiting teams), penalties by period and the home team's winning percentage.
As someone who trains, reviews, assigns, hires and fires officials for a living, I can say with a lot of experience and expertise that I find these sorts of data completely useless. I look at things like positioning, presence, skating, stamina and poise.
Home team winning percentage? That has everything to do with assignments and not with anything the official is doing. What if Official A works a series of games taking him through Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles and then on to Chicago and St. Louis and Official B got games in Long Island, Buffalo and then on to Ottawa and Toronto with the Senators and Maple Leafs in a slump? Pretty good chance the home team winning percentages for Official A are going to be much higher.
Penalty calling breakdowns per game? Well, what is going on during those games? Were these the right calls?
On a single-game basis, officiating "advanced stats" are even more meaningless. Are they designed to be predictors of how the game will be called? If you can predict that, folks, you should go into the Psychic Detective business.
As a matter of fact, quite a few officials would like to get your phone number as well, so they can find out in advance exactly where the puck and players will throughout the night. While you're at it, perhaps you can tip them off on which normally placid player may have had a fight with his wife that morning and be in a goal slump, so he uncharacteristically takes an unprovoked chop at an opponent to vent some frustration.
Hockey is a human game. It's a team game through and through. It's a high-tempo game. No matter how much some folks may want it to be, it's not Moneyball.
Well, I guess I've made an enemy of the advanced stats crowd. Perhaps I can make it up to them with a little-known statistical tidbit. During my hockey playing and officiating careers, I often led the entire league in Fenway Percentage: I rarely missed a Red Sox game.
*********
Paul Stewart holds the distinction of being the first U.S.-born citizen to make it to the NHL as both a player and referee. On March 15, 2003, he became the first American-born referee to officiate in 1,000 NHL games.
Today, Stewart is an officiating and league discipline consultant for the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) and serves as director of hockey officiating for the Eastern College Athletic Conference (ECAC).
The longtime referee heads Officiating by Stewart, a consulting, training and evaluation service for officials. Stewart also maintains a busy schedule as a public speaker, fund raiser and master-of-ceremonies for a host of private, corporate and public events. As a non-hockey venture, he is the owner of Lest We Forget.
Stewart is currently working with a co-author on an autobiography.
Blogger •Former NHL Referee • 
Join the Discussion:
»