Yesterday we covered guys who have the chance to breakout in the upcoming season. I listed Boedker, Yakupov and Kadri as I guys I thought would take the next step in their careers and explode for some relatively high point totals.
Today we look at guys I think will regress. Now, they may still be good players, this isn't to call them crappy and it certainly isn't a scientific process. Miss Cleo isn't around today, so these aren't physic predictions. These are just opinions. I'll try to spell out my thought process as clearly as I can, but please take these with a grain of salt. If nothing else, it's something to consider when drafting your hockey pool.
#1 Joe Pavelski
I hate to write this about Joe Pavelski because he is awesome. Like Jose Bautista in baseball, Pavelski came out of nowhere to score 40 goals. This is a guy who's under six feet and who was drafted in the seventh round. Imagine the heat the Sharks blogger took in 2009 if/when he called out a prediction that Pavelski would score 40 one day.
If we pro-rate his lockout campaign, JP has hit 30 goals in each of the last three season. So, lock him down for 25-30 again this year. Just don't expect him to be a point-per-game 40 goal scorer when you do your draft.
Pavelski had one of the highest shooting percentages in hockey last year at 18.2%. Consider that this absurdly high percentage pushed his career average to 11%, and you will come to the same conclusion I did: Pavelski got lucky last year. Yes, he's a good player. Yes, he'll continue to score. He just won't do so at that pace because, over time, that 18% will dip below ten.
If you're picking a hockey pool, don't overrate Pavelski because of his 40 goals and 78 points. I'd put him at a more reasonable 30-60.
#2 Alexander Steen
Last season Alexander Steen scored 33 goals and 62 points in only 68 games. This beat his previous best season, which occurred in 2009, by 9 goals and 13 points. Steen will turn 31 this season, and while he is an excellent player who does a whole lot more than just score points, if you pick him too high in your pool you will live to regret it.
There is just no way that Steen will continue the torrid pace he set for himself last season. Without looking at the data, I can still comfortably state that it is very rare for players to not only have a career year when they are 30, but then to top it the next year.
The Blues were smart to only sign him to a three year extension, but I think that $6.5 in 2016-17 is going to be preposterous. I still like St. Louis and I like Steen, but its worth asking if their status as unquestioned contenders this upcoming season is being overrated by people expecting Steen to score and play like the first line player that he isn't.
I'm not saying that's the case, I'm just saying it's worth thinking about.
#3 Patrick Sharp
Discounting a year where he was injured a lot, Patrick Sharp has 7 straight seasons of at least 20 goals, and 3 straight at more than 30. He hit his career high last season in points with 78, when he potted a pretty sweet 34 goals. Sharp is a decent bet to still hit 30, but I doubt you'll see him in the top ten in total scoring again.
Sharp is a great player who no doubt benefits from being an after thought in team's coverage of the Blackhawks. Yes, he'll burn you if you ignore him, so it's not like teams do, it's just that if you are playing Chicago, you have to send you best players out after Kane, Toews and Hossa, which allows Sharp to exploit some favorable coverage. This should continue, so you can't expect him to regress very far, it's just that a repeat of his top ten performance after hitting a career high in points seems unlikely.
This is not to take anything away from him, because he is still a great player. But, at age 32 he just had his career year, and if your drafting a hockey pool, that's got to be a red flag. Not a "don't draft him at all" red flag, but more of a "Let someone else pick him too high and capitalize on it" kind of red flag.
To be clear, I don't think Sharp is going to regress to being a bad player. I would just say that if you are picking a pool, look for him to hit around 30/60 rather than 35/80.
Thanks for reading.
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