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Sam Gagner Can Still be a Star in the NHL |
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This past summer, the Coyotes acquired former Oilers centre Sam Gagner from the Lightning, as well as BJ Crombeen, in exchange for a sixth round pick, after the Lightning traded Teddy Purcell to the Oilers for Gagner.
The deal has been widely misunderstood, if comments to this blog are any indication. People seem to look at a player who is traded for a sixth rounder and think there is something wrong with him. This perception stems from not properly understanding how things work in a salary cap system.
Tampa Bay currently sits over the salary cap by approximately a million dollars, even after shedding the Ganger and Crombeen Salaries. Teddy Purcell is a winger with a cap hit of $4.5 million. The lightning have Jonathan Drouin, future superstar, waiting in the minors on an entry level deal (i.e he`s better than Purcell and cheaper and plays the same position). So Tampa realized they had to move out a pretty high quality player in Purcell in order to get under the cap. No team was going to help them out just to be nice.
In the NHL, because of the cap, you get situations where teams are making salary trades and not hockey trades, so it`s important to realize that the Gagner trade is not indicative of his value as a player.
When the Lightning acquired Gagner, they were just going to buy him out, but when it turned out the Coyotes were interested in Gagner, they basically paid the Coyotes to take him, rather than go the buy-out route. They gave the Coyotes two players far beyond what you could hope to get with a sixth rounder in order to save money. They also paid the amount of Gagner`s salary that a buy-out would have cost them. The draft pick is irrelevant - the equivalent of buying a car off your brother for $1. What Arizona traded was cap space.
The trade is a steal.
Gagner may or may not live up to his potential, but the risk here is nil and the reward potential is quite high.
Gagner is only 25. He`s versatile, able to play C or RW. He is under six feet, just, but he is 200lbs, so his size isn`t that much of an issue. People say he`s no good at defense, but maybe Tippett -known as a master of coaching defense - can help there. What he is, is a highly talented offensive player who has never been able to really put his talent to use in the NHL.
His 6th overall selection in the 2007 draft and his 49 point rookie season set expectations sky high. He hit at least 40 points in each of the next four years, but missed time with injuries every year and couldn`t match his rookie year output until the lockout season. During the shortened campaign, he got 38 points in 48 games, a ppg average that would have translated to a career high. In addition, he had an 8 point game in the year prior to the lockout (02-02-12 vs. chicago).
Things were looking good, as talent was never a question with Gagner - just injuries and playing on a young team with a seemingly never ending carousal of coaches. He was the de facto pick across the league as breakout candidate for last season. The Oilers had a new coach, he was getting better every year and the talent level around him was now very high.
Unfortunately, Gagner was absolutely destroyed in a pre-season game and had his jaw smashed up. He missed the start of the season - but because he has the heart of a fourth liner - he rushed back to help his team, probably much too early, and had the worst season of his career. All of a sudden, the perception about him changed.
Instead of a young player with massive potential, he was now a chronically injured veteran of seven seasons who had never cracked 50 points. The Oilers rebuild was stalled, they did not have enough size down the middle and Gagner was moved out.
Perception is a funny thing in the NHL. When it goes bad and all you have to counter it is potential, it`s a hard - if not impossible - argument to make that the perception is wrong.
I don`t know how Sam Gagner is going to do in the desert. What I do know is that he is just one year removed from many experts picking him to break out for 70 odd points. I know that he once scored 8 points in a single game and can be a wizard with the puck. I also know that on the Coyotes, with their dearth of high quality offensive options, that he stands a good chance to get the ice time afforded to Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall on the Oilers.
I think that if things were ever going to align for Gagner to succeed in the NHL, they have now. If he stays healthy, you can write him in for 50 points - that has pretty much been established. But when you factor in his level of talent, his opportunity and what one assumes is his desire to prove his detractors wrong, he seems like he could give a lot more.
Watching some highlights of Gagner`s career, the things he can do with the puck, his creativity and his hockey sense do not seem like those of a player who maxes out at 50 points. I believe - after doing the research, watching the tapes and talking to some people who have watched him for years in Edmonton - that Sam Gagner has it in him to be a star in the NHL.
Yes, the odds are against him. Any player who, after 7 years in the league, constant health troubles and questions about his defense, questions about his ability to play centre and his size would be bucking the odds if he suddenly broke out and had a huge year. So, I do temper my excitement a bit. I mean, there are no guarantees and the numbers are against him.
But, anomalies do happen. People buck the odds all the time. Players don`t just follow a set path. Sam Gagner may just be at the nadir of his career. I just can`t believe he`s already had his peak.
I`ll predict him for 70 points this season. I like his attitude and his talent and from what I can tell, only bad luck has prevented him from becoming a star - he has been injured, but not necessarily injury prone, he didn`t choose to have a new coach ever six months, to play for a chronically losing team or to be rushed to the NHL at the age of 18.
He`s only 25.
Expect big things.
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