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The Real Reason 2015 is Considered a "Deep Draft" |
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The 2015 draft is being heralded as an especially deep draft. Personally, I agree with that assessment, but for a different reason than most. While the majority of the focus on the strength of this draft comes from the wunderkind Connor McDavid simply being in it. Jack Eichel setting NCAA records. Having the OHL scoring leader (Marner) and the second highest point getter (Strome) in the OHL both not even in the discussion for the top draft slot...is well, pretty ridiculous when you look at it. Let alone a guy like Nick Merkley in the WHL hardly ranked in many top-10's despite being a top-5 point producer. Let's just say it's a pretty good time to be at the top of the draft.
However, the reason why I think this draft is so strong is not just the frightening top-6ish that has emerged, but the plethora of defensemen in this draft. This is the year to go big on defenders. It's fairly ridiculous how many excellent years defensemen are having this season...to little fan fare. Sure we hear about Hanifin, maybe the odd Provorov or Werenski tidbit, but mostly the world seems silent on the wealth of defensemen in this draft. There are guys ranked in the second and third rounds that are having seasons that would, nay, should get them in the top-20. More refreshing is that it isn't just the old song and dance of "The WHL = Defensemen!" There are amazing defenders coming from every league...well...okay, nobody good is really coming out of the KHL/MHL, but that's par for the course on Russian defenders.
I'd also like to mention that there have been some concerns on a lot of the forwards that we really haven't seen with the defenders. Travis Konecny has had a very inconsistent year. Pavel Zacha has seemingly forgot what scoring is. Nikita Korostelev has been dreadful under the weight of expectations. Jens Lööke hasn't really found the production expected of him. Colin White hasn't found his scoring touch. Nicolas Roy hasn't been able to re-capture the magic he had at the Ivan Hlinka and bears the weight of being the 1st overall pick in the QMJHL draft. Lawson Crouse is intriguing, but hasn't shown he can produce to the level expected of a guy ranked in the top-5. Timo Meier is producing, but he's one of the oldest draft eligibles (2 weeks from the 2014 draft) and from my understanding has a symbiotic relationship in production to his proximity to Nikolaj Ehlers (Jets). These are all guys that going into the draft were locks from as high as top-5 to the late first. Now? Maybe some start to fall a little.
This hasn't been the case with the defensemen, most seem to not only be matching the lofty expectations, but achieving even more. To little note. Well...I noticed and hopefully everyone will by the end of this article. I'm going to go league by league of the guys that have impressed me.
OHL
Ranked 84th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Rasmus Andersson - 6'0 214lbs, 18 years old, Barrie Colts
56gp 10g 47a 57p +14
I've gone on crazy long rants about Andersson and his ranking. It's a crime. A big, physical, highly talented two-way defenseman that is over a PPG as an OHL rookie...ranked 84 of just NA skaters, so essentially the third round. What world am I living in? I got to see him on a recent stream of Barrie vs Sudbury, was hoping to come away impressed and I was. Moved the puck ferociously, but never enough to put himself out of the play. Noted, I did see one pretty glaring missed assignment that went unpunished, but other than that he was fantastic. He ended up with no points to show for it, but most of the plays started with him. You all know my views on this guy, so we'll leave it at that.
Ranked 53rd on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Vince Dunn - 6'0 185lbs, 18 years old, Niagara Ice Dogs
57gp 13g 29a 42p
On a pretty much one line squad, Dunn has managed to be highly effective in the offensive zone and at generating puck possession and momentum. He's a highly mobile player and skating is definitely a strong suit. He's highly effective at moving the puck and at running a power play, things most teams are always on the lookout for.
Ranked 33rd on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Mitchell Vande Sompel - 5'10 180lbs, 18 years old, Oshawa Generals
49gp 9g 42a 51p +27
Every year there seems to be a 5'10ish offensive defender that goes in the early-mid first round. Whether it's the right move or if it works out doesn't really seem to matter since GM's keep doing it. Vande Sompel is that guy this year. Yet we find him in the mid-secondish round. He's sitting in 5th overall for scoring by defensemen in the OHL currently. You have the cliches, he's a dynamic puck moving offensive defenseman. Ryan Ellis, Ryan Murphy, Derrick Pouliot, Anthony De Angelo, Thomas Hickey, Kevin Shattenkirk...you get the idea. He impressed me at the Ivan Hlinka and I like his smarts.
Ranked 51st on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Matt Spencer - 6'2 194lbs, 17 years old, Peterborough Petes
55gp 6g 20a 26p
The Petes are sort of where +/- goes to die as they've been a right royal mess. Despite having a solid offensive season, Spencer is viewed more as a two-way player with leanings towards the defensive side. All in all though, he's the kind of guy that you can throw out for an important penalty kill, maybe get a little offense generated and generally be a dependable player. Only real complaint is that he looks to pass far too often, as Leafs fan used to shout at Kaberle "Shoot!"
Ranked 68th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Gustav Bouramman - 6'0 185lbs, 18 years old, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
57gp 5g 30a 35p +28
Bouramman has sort of come out of nowhere to be a surprise rookie sensation in the OHL. So I can understand why he might be ranked so low. That will likely change as we approach the draft. When Darnell Nurse (Oilers) was at the WJC's, it was Bouramman that stepped up and took his heavy minutes. He's shown a high level of two-way play. I really didn't know much about this guy, unlike Andersson he wasn't high profile. Without Andersson and DeBrincat (2016) coming as rookies, he likely would have won the OHL Rookie Award. The Swede has made a strong transition to North America and should be one to watch for.
Ranked 98th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Thomas Schemitsch - 6'4 206lbs, 18 years old, Owen Sound Attack
55gp 9g 30a 39p
Schemitsch has quietly put up a really good year offensively. Playing often on the second wave PP, he has still managed to be highly effective...though more so when he's playing with Bigras (Avalanche) on there. He's a left defender that shoots right handed and from what I can tell that has sort of scared people off of him. Simply put, that's the side he plays and can't make the transition to the right side, which probably worries some scouts who know potential coaches might want him on the right side. He needs work in his own zone and to up his speed, but by and large 6'4 offensive defenders are interesting players.
Honourable Mention to Travis Dermott from the Eerie Otters
WHL
Ranked 10th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Ivan Provorov - 6'0 201lbs, 18 years old, Brandon Wheat Kings
48gp 12g 39a 51p +25
Provorov is currently the fourth highest scoring defenseman in the WHL. Though with the WJC's and a recent injury, there's little doubt he would be first otherwise. There hasn't been as big a riser as Provorov other than maybe Lawson Crouse...though Crouse's is certainly debatable. Provorov is not just about the points, which is what is really getting people excited, he's so smart positionally and such a tremendous skater. He leads all WHL rookies in points. He's going to win WHL Rookie of the Year and likely the CHL ROY...hell he should probably win Best Defenseman in the WHL. He has a shot at becoming an elite two-way defenseman and I keep getting shades of Oliver Ekman-Larsson off this guy. Also, for anybody worried that he will bolt to the KHL, like Galchenyuk, Provorov has played his hockey in the USA for years before moving to the WHL.
Ranked 31st on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Ryan Pilon - 6'2 212lbs, 18 years old, Brandon Wheat Kings
56gp 10g 37a 47p +25
As you might have guessed with the identical +/- and strong point...and being on the same team, Pilon is Provorov's partner. Something I really like when two draft eligible players form one of the best tandems in a league. If you wanted to find the steryotypical WHL defenseman, it's Pilon. Who does not play like a pylon I might add. Fairly strong skater, plays well at both ends of the ice, has an extremely heavy shot and won't back down from physicality. Interesting to note he only has one more year of WHL eligiblity, so he's a bit more further along than most.
Ranked 38th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Noah Juulsen - 6'1 180lbs, 17 years old, Everett Silvertips
56gp 7g 38a 45p +19
Juulsen has had an excellent year and has helped spark some life into a Silvertips offense that is basically inconsistent outside of Scherbak (Habs). The lanky two-way defender has a lot of room to grow and as a guy on the younger side of a draft filled with a ton of 1996 birthdays ahead of him has intriguing upside. Mobility, all zone play and sometimes a nasty side...there's a lot to like. Most players having a year like he is with his ability and play style would never dream of being ranked out of the first round.
Ranked 16th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Brandon Carlo - 6'5 185lbs, 18 years old, Tri-City Americans
52gp 3g 20a 23p
Carlo has sort of been in limbo since he made the American U20 squad...but was pretty much the second worst player on the ice against the Russians when they needed him most. So, yay for making it! Nay for having a dreadful performance! As one would imagine when looking at the raw size he brings, Carlo is expected to be a physical shutdown defender at the NHL level. What's nice is that he is fairly mobile for his size and still extremely raw. He's a guy who might take a little longer to develop, but a team with the ability to be patient might get a gem as he matures into his body.
Ranked 46th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Parker Wotherspoon - 6'0 170lbs, 17 years old, Tri-City Americans
60gp 9g 24a 33p
So I'm going to make enemies, but Wotherspoon is better than Carlo at every other than being tall. He's more physical. He's a better skater. He's a better puck mover. He has more offensive creativity. He has a harder and more accurate shot. More importantly, he thinks the game better. Sadly he is in desperate need for a protein shake. His size will hinder him going into the draft, but it isn't a dire issue in my opinion. Wotherspoon is an extremely young player in this draft being 3 weeks from the 2016 draft. That age divide give him a lot of room to grow. He's actually one of the few on this entire list that is a late birthday. Most as you might have noticed are already 18. I think he's a sleeper to be honest, though with a brother already well looked at as an NHL prospect, you wonder if he doesn't climb the rankings even higher near the end.
Ranked 133rd on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Ethan Bear - 6'0 203lbs, 17 years old, Seattle Thunderbirds
56gp 11g 23a 34p
Now I know that Thunderbirds prospects are notorious for being weird and unpredictable. Bear leads the team in points by a defenseman and filled the hard to replace boots of Shea Theodore (Anaheim) while he was in the AHL and then WJC. He had an impressive showing at the Ivan Hlinka earlier and I was impressed by his defensive reads. He has his head up all the time and seems to anticipate plays. It wasn't hard to be impressive on that IH team, but he was good.
Honourable Mention to Brendan Guhle.
QMJHL
Ranked 23rd on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Jérémy Roy - 6'0 182lbs, 17 years old, Sherbrooke Phoenix
45gp 5g 38a 43p
Roy is often overlooked despite an ever increasing mature two-way game. Lauded for his offensive instincts and abilities, people forget that he is extremely capable in his own end. Sitting at 5th overall in defensive scoring, Roy was also arguably Canada's best defenseman at the Ivan Hlinka tournament where he turned heads with his smart reads and surprising penalty killing prowess. He is a defender that understands the game well and seems to know where everybody is on the ice at all times. He was already coming off a very impressive 44 point campaign as a 16 year old rookie that earned him the QMJHL Defensive Rookie of the Year and his play is just simply better. He's the kind of guy I can see a GM taking a lot earlier than expected.
Ranked 91st on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Loik Léveillé - 6'0 220lbs, 18 years old, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles
56gp 9g 33a 42p
I was debating if I should just honourable mention him, but decided to just go for it. Léveillé might well be the oldest non-passed over player in this draft. He was about 7 days from being in 2014. Secondly that size is real. This kid is built like a truck. Léveillé has proven to be quite formidable in all three zones this season and is notoriously hard to handle in the crease. He's a surprisingly excellent skater. While he has an okay shot, he's pretty innacurate with it, despite the 9 goals. He's the kind of defenseman that really likes to go for the "big bomb," but it's pretty erratic from what I've seen. You can't fault him for trying though, because he shoots a lot.
Ranked 45th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Nicolas Meloche - 6'2 198lbs, 17 years old, Baie-Comeau Drakkar
44gp 10g 24a 34p
Meloche is severely underrated right now. He's a lot younger than a ton of guys ahead of him, yet he's seriously good. He's a physically intimidating defender that plays heavy penalty killing minutes and has even managed to score 2 shorthanded goals this year. He has the ability to change games with a big hit or a big goal. Big nasty defensemen with some offensive upside are always worth the pick.
Ranked 15th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Thomas Chabot - 6'2 179lbs, 18 years old, Saint John Sea Dogs
56gp 9g 25a 34p
Chabot is sort of shockingly high in my estimation. Though that isn't to say he isn't a very good player. It's just that at 15, I can think of several guys ahead of him. Chabot is a big part of a revamped Sea Dogs team, that while not as memorable as the Huberdeau led Mem Cup winners, still has quite a few draft eligible players like Zboril, Noel and Marsh. Two-way ability and particularly good puck handling help him stand out from the crowd. Bulking up is going to be the big issue with him going forward.
Ranked 11 on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Jakub Zboril - 6'2 185lbs, 18 years old, Saint John Sea Dogs
34gp 9g 14a 23p
Zboril was a surprise cut from the Czech U20 team that was so disappointing. After Zboril had a dominant Ivan Hlinka and U18 tournament both where the Czech team won Silver, it was shocking that they didn't bring him. Well, they could have used his amazing speed and excellent transition game. Zboril is one of the prime puck movers in the draft and while the point totals are solid, it doesn't tell you the amount of offense and pressure he builds up in the play. He's also a guy who isn't afraid to play physical, which is always a plus. Sometimes you question his creativity because he can be really single minded and force plays. That's one of the few concerns.
Ranked 60th on Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Alexandre Carrier - 5'11 168lbs, 18 years old, Gatineau Olympiques
58gp 9g 38a 47p
Carrier has been on the radar for a long time. Being 2 weeks from the 2014 draft makes him one of the older hands in this draft. Strong offensive abilities combine with some very good stick work. While not terrible defensively, he's certainly more of a "soft" defender if you take my meaning. More stick play and trying to outmaneuver and position himself than separation and body work. I think he's ranked pretty fairly to be honest, might even go a bit lower despite a strong season.
Honourable Mentions to Jérémy Lauzon and Guillaume Brisebois (He of the league worst -38).
Now you might be wondering where the NCAA, USHL and various European leagues representatives are. Have no fear, that's coming in the next part. Basically this thing got way too long for one solitary post. There are a lot of excellent players in those leagues too.
Thanks for reading.
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