The Pittsburgh Penguins have had the luxury of entering the 2016-17 season with most of its championship roster intact. This is something that isn’t a given for a Stanley Cup winner. Most years the champion will have turnover due to expiring contracts and the raises that come with players who go on a long playoff run.
The biggest offseason move that had potential to happen was a Marc-Andre Fleury trade. It did not materialize. The Calgary Flames decided to go the Brian Elliott route instead.
The beginning of the regular season is just around the corner and the Penguins don’t have a pressing need to make a move. However, the situation out in Winnipeg with Jacob Trouba creates a business opportunity for the Penguins if they so choose. Jacob Trouba and his agent asked Winnipeg for a trade months ago and it has yet to materialize. The player is not going to report to camp and it looks like that trade request will finally be granted.
So why bring up the Penguins? They are very thin at the right defense position when looking at things from a long term perspective. They are stronger at the left defense position. This could be an opportunity to strengthen a weakness while not compromising their roster construction. It seems to be harder to find right shot defensemen who can play at a high level in the NHL for whatever reason. The Jets specifically want a left handed defenseman of the same caliber and age of Jacob Trouba. Pittsburgh has one of those in Olli Maatta. Both Trouba and Maatta are 22 years old and Maatta compares favorably to Trouba
Olli Maatta just signed a six-year contract extension that has an AAV of 4.083M. The Jets would get a player they know they won’t have to mess around with on the contract front.
Rumors out of Winnipeg had Trouba asking for eight years and 6.5-7.0M. The key to remember is that was his ask and not what he is going to get. That is how negotiations work. You ask for the moon, the team low balls you, and then you meet somewhere in the middle. My guess is that Trouba will eventually come in at the 5.0-6.0M range. Any team looking to trade for him will know what that price will be beforehand.
As you can see above Olli Maatta’s NHL sample has been slightly better than that of Jacob Trouba, specifically the offensive output at even-strenght. So why should Pittsburgh do this other than the fact they are weak at the right defense position for the long term? Jacob Trouba’s usage hasn’t been ideal. There is legit room for growth once he leaves Winnipeg. In Trouba’s young career his most common defense partner has been the replacement level Mark Stuart (2050:26 minutes together).
This is similar to how Pittsburgh thought Rob Scuderi would get the most out of Kris Letang. Usage like that will only hold a player back. The proof is in the numbers. Here are some of the with or without you evidence that shows how Stuart has been a negative influence on Trouba.
Their possession numbers together are respectable, but Trouba’s numbers away from Stuart are really good. Stuart plummets away from Trouba.
We see a similar relationship when we look at expected goals
On the flip side Olli Maatta’s two most common partners have been Kris Letang and Matt Niskanen (in a sheltered role). Throw in the fact that he plays frequently with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and it is sizable usage advantage for Maatta.
Pittsburgh is not in a bad spot. They are not desperate. They don’t have to make a move like this, but I still find this as an intriguing option. The point of entertaining this deal would be to solidify the right side of their top four defense for the remainder of the Crosby/Malkin era. Olli Maatta is good, but that is the point of including him in this. You have to give to get. Moving Maatta also gives a path to Derrick Pouliot to play with the organization long term. I feel strongly that Pouliot will be a good NHL player and that allows the Penguins to move Maatta for a player of his caliber on the right side.
This is what things could look like for the long term
Dumoulin-Letang
Pouliot-Trouba
That is a great top four grouping.
So the last thing Pittsburgh would have to consider if they wanted to go this route is how they would fit Trouba in their 2016-17 salary structure. He needs a new deal and it will be more than Maatta’s 4M. Once again I look at the depth Pittsburgh has with forwards on ELC contracts and see Eric Fehr and his 2.0M AAV as somebody they could move for salary relief.
My offer would be Olli Maatta and Eric Fehr for Jacob Trouba. This would create the cap space necessary for a move.
What reservations would Winnipeg have with this deal? They might be scared off by Olli Maatta’s injury track record to this point (cancer, mumps, shoulder surgery, lower body injury). Maatta has had miserable luck on this front. The Jets might not want to move a top asset for Maatta even if he is a comparable player because of his injury past. You won't know unless you ask.
The Penguins can stick with the status quo and that would be OK, but I would definitely explore the acquisition of the right handed Jacob Trouba. It fills a long term need and I still believe with proper usage there is still more growth to be had with Trouba as a player.
Something to think about.
Thanks for reading!
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