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The Real Reason 2015 is Considered a "Deep Draft" Part Deux |
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I really hated cutting this blog into two separate pieces. The main purpose of my first article was to point out why I believed the 2015 draft was deep.
The insanely talented group of defensemen that seem criminally underrated thus far in the rankings. This is a continuation of the previous. I had to break it up, because just doing the CHL was about 5 blogs for most and I feared losing the attention of the audience.
Here is the second half of the look on great defenders from the 2015 draft. If you want to see the previous piece on the Q, W and O HL's, it's easy to find. Click the Coyote above or my name.
NCAA and the USHL
Let's start out with the big guns. Two of the best defensemen in this draft are coming out of the NCAA this year. Both are universally in the top-10, though Werenski is quietly gaining some serious hype as teams begin to really hyper-critique Hanifin's (the consensus top defenders) game. The NCAA is providing three stud prospects in one year and in my estimation this is a banner year for American hockey even without nabbing the top selection (in all likelihood).
Ranked 3rd of Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Noah Hanifin - 6'2 205lbs, 18 years old, Boston College
31gp 4g 16a 20p +13
Noah Hanifin is "the" defenseman of the draft. Or at least the early and still undisputed leader in that race. While Provorov and Werenski are pushing him, it remains highly unlikely that either will pass him as the first defender picked. More realistically his fight will be with Strome and Marner as teams that might prefer a forward might see him hop down from the usual third spot (See Larsson and Jones). Hanafin is getting a lot of complimentary comparisons to Ryan Suter for his amazing endurance and calmness on the ice. The skating, the skill, the nice array of offensive and defensive abilities are compounded in a player that plays more mature than his years. The "two-way" label is bandied about a lot, but Hanifin embodies it. While he didn't blow me away at the U20's, he was solid and was one of the few that weren't abused by the Russians in that disastrous game (looking at you Carlo).
Ranked 6th of Central Scouting's NA Skaters - Zach Werenski - 6'2 214lbs, 17 years old, University of Michigan
26gp 7g 14a 21p +17
Werenski is a real wildcard this draft. Much like fellow American Trouba was in 2012. Werenski is the youngest player in the NCAA and will finish his season there before he turns 18. As you can see by the numbers, Werenski is making the most of the offensive juggernaut Michigan squad. He sits in 9th for PPG of defensemen in the NCAA, this includes all ages. Something that is pretty unheard of. He's a prime puck mover with excellent offensive instincts. That mixture with his size makes him such an interesting prospect. While his offensive abilities are his forte, he isn't terrible in his own end and can use his speed and size to counter players. Hanifin is the safer bet right now, just like Ryan Murray was the safer bet over Trouba...but you look at Werenski as one of the younger defensemen in this draft and you wonder just how high the potential is. His rise has been monumental.
Honourable Mention to Grant Gabriele
Elitserien, Allsvenskan and SuperElit
Ranked 1st of Central Scouting's EU Skaters - Oliver Kylington - 6'0 174lbs, 17 years old, AIK
17gp 4g 3a 7p
Kylington like most top Swedish players has bounced around a lot as he plays as much as he can to develop. He has played in all three of the above mentioned leagues, though last I checked he was still on loan with AIK in the Allsvenskan. We all lost a great opportunity to watch his magic at the U20's as he was injured before the tournament. Kylington is often described as a two-way defenseman, but I was slightly suspicious of that title after watching the Ivan Hlinka. There was certainly more rushing, pinching and offensive zone starting than I would have expected from his reputation. Then I watched two Allsvenskan games and one Elitserien game on a stream to see and I have to say, this kid is a wizard in the offensive zone, but slightly scary at times in his own. I'm not going to say Erik Karlsson...but he plays that kind of style. Shifting through the neutral zone with ease and creativity. I am looking forward to seeing him play at the U18's, since that could be the tournament that puts him on the map (and Werenski for that matter).
Ranked 5th of Central Scouting's EU Skaters - Jacob Larsson - 6'2 181lbs, 17 years old, Frölunda
15gp 1g 1a 2p
Another Larsson. Seriously who is this Lars and why does he have so many sons? Larsson is more of what you would call a "two-way" defender and was given a lot of the nasty assignments at the Ivan Hlinka. I'd however stress that I don't think he brings all that much offensive ability to the mix. Just from what I've seen. He's more of a first pass, get it out quick and shadow the play kind of defender. Stability and room to grow put him at number 5 on CS's list, though I'm a bit more impressed with a few others that fall farther down on this rather Swedish-centric list.
Ranked 15th of Central Scouting's Eu Skaters - Jesper Lindgren - 6'0 161lbs, 17 years old, MODO
4gp 0g 1a 1p
I'll just add this because 4 games is pretty much nothing. He has 24 points in 23 games in the SuperElit (good for third place in defensive scoring) and is widely considered one of the best offense only defensemen in the draft. Defensively...oh baby. He can get away with it in the less physical and more space filled large rinks, but there's a reason Sweden hasn't invited him to many international events. Needless to say Lindgren is a hope and a prayer kind of pick. A ton of upside as a PP QB and puck rusher with the hope that as he grows physically, he will grow the other side of his game. A lot of teams would do well to use a third rounder on him if he's still around.
Honourable Mentions to the Carlsson's, Lucas and Gabriel.
NLA
Ranked 12th of Central Scouting's EU Skaters - Jonas Siegenthaler - 6'2 214lbs, 17 years old, ZSC
40gp 0g 3a 3p
Being a shutdown defenseman often seems to keep players out of the draft spotlight. It also doesn't hurt that so many of the ultra high profile shutdown defenders in the draft never reach their lofty expectations and a large chunk of the leagues best are unheralded players. I really liked his game at the U20's, he was quietly impressive. Very physical, very hard to handle and a guy who didn't make too many bad reads. When I was watching I wondered who he was. Since he looked so mature I figured him to be one of the plethora of undrafted 19 year old defenders that countries like Switzerland inevitably bring out to stay competitive. To my surprise and delight, he was the youngest player on the Swiss team. Completely flew under the radar and might still be doing so. More research into Siegenthaler keeps bringing me uncomfortably to the situation with Roman Josi and the lack of exposure of the NLA. Both on the surface look like they had/have very similar draft years...though Josi really brought his stock up at the U18's. Here's hoping Siegenthaler can blow us away at the U18's and be a nice surprise.
Slovakia
Ranked Unfairly at 24th of Central Scouting's EU Skaters - Erik Cernak - 6'3 204lbs, 17 years old, HC Kosice
43gp 5g 8a 13p
There were only a handful of defensemen at the U20 tournament that were under 18. Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski, Kylington*, Siegenthaler and...Cernak. There were only three 16 year olds in last years U20 tournament and they were McDavid (1st), Zacha (8th) and...Cernak. There's only one of three players in this draft who are going for their third U18 tournament in a few months and he's one of them (Zacha and Siegenthaler the others). Cernak is playing on HC Kosice's top-pairing at 17 and was in the top-4 last year at 16. As Rodney Dangerfield said "I don't get no respect, no respect at all!" Cernak like Siegenthaler impressed me, though I had Cernak on my watch list a lot longer. He was a major force behind Slovakia's surprise Bronze medal and showed his mobility, tenacity and general pain in the arse to play against...ness. I would argue pretty vehemently that he is the best shutdown defenseman in this draft and certainly the most unappreciated. In the Bronze medal match Cernak had his best game of the tournament and was on the ice for the final nail biting minutes while being forced to match against the Nylander-Kempe-Holmstrom line. If he's in the second round, he would be a good sleeper pick.
Thanks for reading.
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