Last night, the Canucks traded Eric Gudbranson and a 5th to the Canucks for Jared McCann a 2nd and a 4th.
In my opinion, it is a the most interesting trade the NHL has seen in a long time because it clearly pits the old-school (size, draft position, strength, size, draft position) vs the new school (objective, stats based analysis).
The Canucks are perhaps the NHL's most analytic-adverse team (based on their recent moves) and the Panthers are looking to be the opposite of that.
Eric Gudbranson is a former 3rd overall pick who is 6'5, skates well for a big guy and is a punishing hitter. He is also 'captain material' and generally loved by the local media and fans alike.
Jared McCann, as a 19 year old centre in the NHL, was one of only five players on his team to post a positive relative possession rating, and appears to be a very promising two-way centre with upside.
As a 19 year old rookie on one of the NHL's worst teams, you can see he didn't do half bad. He was basically a decent to good 4th liner with promise. If you're a legit NHL player at 19, I think it's safe to say improvement is almost guaranteed. Add in the fact that most Canucks players improved their possession when on the ice with McCann, and it's easy to see why the Panthers would want him.
Gudbranson, while fitting the classic definition of what an NHL defenseman should be, is the exact antithesis of what the stats say makes a good NHL defenseman.
If you can move the puck up the ice, don't get hemmed in your own zone on a consistent basis and limit shots against, you are a good defenseman. The theory is that players whose main job is to hit and be big are not effective in today's NHL.
It's a concept that is hard to argue when you consider that if a defenseman's job is to limit goals against, limiting shots should be the most important measure of how he does his job. Gudbranson's shot prevention is not even equal to what is expected from a third-pairing defenseman, and he doesn't make up for it by putting extra shots on net.
He is, according to every way we have to measure a hockey player empirically, a bad player. Sure, he does some nice things, but if you replaced him with a guy who was smaller and not a leader, but who prevented and took shots, you'd come out ahead every-time, since you could probably find that leadership somewhere else from someone who is more effective.
Since the Panthers recently made management changes to make their team a more 'analytics based' one, this trade makes perfect sense. Not only do they move out a player who is constantly caved in and who allows a frighteningly high number of shots against when he plays, but they potentially set themselves up with a nice 1-2-3 centre combination in Barkov, Bjugstad and McCann - another tenant of the analytic movement.
While this trade (from a Vancouver perspective) was completely panned by most of the people who base their analysis on stats, predictably, the old-guard loved it.
Nick Kypreos said "I absolutely love it (for Vancouver)" and "For Florida....it's a head-scratcher."
But it isn't, not really. Gudbranson is basically all he's ever going to be at age 24. That is a classic defensive defenseman who can't move the puck and doesn't prevent shots. He is basically a younger version of Roman Polak or Dan Girardi.
In the end, the Panthers get a better player (not hard since Gudbranson is basically replacement level) and the better draft picks. They took advantage of the fact that Jim Benning believes that big players who used to be high draft picks and are all leadery and stuff are the kind of players you need to win, despite evidence to the contrary.
Also, Florida got the cheaper player, the player who is not yet into his prime and they probably won't have to pay him close to the five million the Canucks will inevitably sign Gudbranson to, for four or five years.
Some will insist that Vancouver made a good trade here. They may be right, I mean, certainly some people in very prominent positions think so. I think, however, that as time goes on this trade is going to look worse and worse for the Canucks - and it already looks awful.
For the Panthers: it's an absolute steal.
Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»