This could mean a) Dave Tippett insists on signing slow-footed, old-school, "stay at home" defenseman and in order to get his way on other things, John Chayka acquiesced
BUT I HIGHLY DOUBT IT, even though it's going to be perceived that way.....
or b)The Coyotes analytics department knows things about Luke Schenn and his ability to be effective in the NHL that are not apparent to the general public.
Hard to say.
My first reaction to the news was mild surprise given the direction I assume the Coyotes are going. What good are guys who don't move the puck? Isn't Schenn just a better version of Nick Grossmann?
But wait, isn't Luke Schenn a much better skater and passer than given credit for? I think he is.
My second reaction is that I've always been a fan of Luke Schenn. He was drafted on the day my daughter was born, and the Leafs are the team I grew up cheering for. If you read this column with any frequency, you know I like to try to base my opinions on the stats, but it wasn't always this way. My favorite players growing up were Wendel Clark and Mats Sundin, but I always loved the big hitting defensemen, and when the Leafs were good for the first time in my life, they were stacked with guys like Bob Rouse, Dmitri Yushkevich and Danil Markov. I also loved Vlad Konstantinov, Scott Stevens and Adam Foote.
So when the Leafs drafted Schenn, I was pretty excited - I hoped they'd have a thunderous checker who played the game 'the right way' and who could be a Scott Stevens for a new era.
Schenn's early Leafs career coincided with my trip through university, my training in critical thinking, the advent of the statistical revolution and my career as a hockey writer. As may be obvious, my thinking on hockey evolved and I now know that while big hits are still awesome, they don't necessarily correlate with being a good hockey player.
I, like many other open-minded people, have had to re-think what "playing the game the right way" means.
Luke Schenn, born a decade earlier, would have been a big star in the NHL - warranted or not. Today, we know better. But that doesn't mean I still don't hold romantic feelings about playing the game a certain way, and I think Schenn embodies that.
Like I said, he was drafted the same day my daughter was born and he was supposed to anchor the Leafs' blue-line until the 2020s, become my favorite player and the next Shea Weber.
But he didn't develop very well - partly because he can't skate at the level you need to to be an NHL star (his skating has improved since he broke into the league, but no one is confusing him with Chris Kreider) and partly because of a self-fulfilling prophecy about what his role should be, but mostly because he plays the game (or has been asked to) in a way that would be more effective had the NHL not eliminated the red-line, cut back on hocking and holding and sped the game up. He grew up in the "dead puck" era and tailored his game to fit it, but when he was old enough to make it, the game had changed.
Or maybe that's too easy. Maybe he just wasn't good enough. Or deployed correctly. Who knows?
Eventually he was traded for JVR in a trade that was echoed this summer by the Oilers and Devils, and then after he spent 3.5 seasons in Philly, he went to LA where he managed to (for the first time ever) become a positive possession player on a deep team.
Here's what we know about Schenn: his career high in goals is 5. His career high in assists is 20. He's not that fast, he isn't known as a great puck mover and he hits like a truck.
BUT: He's also only 26, he shoots right, and, having watched him a lot, I'd say it's possible he has some un-tapped puck moving skills - I've seen him on several occasions do things where you go "was that Schenn? Seriously?" Though realistically, that could be confirmation bias, because I was, am and likely always will be, a fan of his.
The Coyotes signed Luke Schenn for $1.25 - essentially a league minimum salary for a guy, who, at worst, is a replacement player. Basically, if he's your third-pairing right-D, you probably have a third-pairing right-D who is better than ten teams, worse than ten other teams and the same as the other nine teams.
(One thing that makes this move somewhat surprising, is that the Coyotes already have a far-above average 3rd pairing RD in Michalek, who, while his game may have declined, still suppresses shots at a very effective level).
So it's a no-risk move with the potential to pay off. It has potential because Schenn could still tap into his potential and become a better puck mover. Perhaps he adjusts his game after what he learned in LA or - and this isn't that crazy - they could try him with OEL. Certainly he can't be any worse than Murphy has been.
As for where he fits in the lineup, the Coyotes' other right-handed D are Michalek (still a good shot-suppressor) Murphy, Stone and Deangelo.
As you can see from the chart, it's interesting that Schenn's value seems to come more from offense than defense. His scoring /ice time ratio is actually that of a decent second pairing guy, but as is wont for your classic "stay at home" guy, he actually bleeds shots against is not at all effective at (ironically) defense.
Comparing him to Murphy shows more interesting things. Murphy, who people think of as "offensive" is actually pretty terrible. If you adjust for not playing with OEL, he doesn't suppress shots any better than Schenn, but actually produces less offense.
Perhaps the Coyotes saw this too and thought that maybe they could get Schenn to alter his game towards puck moving and away from what his reputation says he should be. Schenn appears like he could be an upgrade over Murphy, and if he isn't deployed in the way his reputation has always forced him to be, perhaps there is a whole new player to be had.
At a near minimum salary, there is no risk. The Coyotes now have five serviceable right-handed defenseman: Deangelo, Murphy, Stone, Michalek and Schenn.
Michalek is a perfect bottom pairing guy who actually plays good defense and will look much better without an anchor like Dahlbeck. Dangelo should be able to partner with Goligoski to form a dynamic second pairing. Schenn could play with OEL, and Murphy and Stone could be trade-bait.
Both are young and right-handed enough that they should create some interest on the market and bring back something interesting. An opening night roster of:
might actually be much better than it appears. Last year, the Coyotes had the worst (non-Canucks) defense group in the entire NHL. If they return with the only two useful parts of that group, I won't be disappointed. Not to mention, I guarantee there are GMs who will overrate Michael Stone.
The truth is, Murphy and Stone have failed to develop into what they were thought to be. They are both RFA and now they are both expendable.
Look, I'm not trying to convince you that Schenn is a legit top pairing guy. But I will say this: his skating and puck moving are underrated. His reputation has always caused teams to deploy him as a stay-at-home defensive-defensemen, but he sucks at that. He doesn't drive possession and he hits too much, and it's like a circle that feeds itself: he blocks shots, hits and gets deployed in situations where he gets hemmed in and beat-down.
But, given a new role, he might thrive. He can move the puck, so lets see what he can do with a real partner not playing crap minutes. The point is, he isn't much worse than what they have and he's cheap and is a very positive risk/reward decision.
Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»