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Adam Fox signs seven-year deal with a $9.5 mil AAV, my take, @VAN tonight |
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The Rangers continued to lock up their young core, inking Adam Fox to a seven-year extension with a $9.5 million AAV. A Blueshirt fan since birth and a Jericho, LI native, a little more than two years ago Fox made his debut with the team. He has morphed into one of the best d-men in the league, earning the Norris Trophy last season and playing at potentially an even higher level this season. At 24, the seven-year contract buys out several UFA seasons and also leaves Fox in line for possibly another big contract at 31.
Contract Announcement:
Discussions have been ongoing for a while and picked up in earnest recently. The long-term signings of several blueliners coupled with Fox's continued excellent play - slightly above what we saw last year - likely accelerated the timeframe. Larry Brooks had a nice summary of the deal: "When you have an elite player in your midst, no less at the age of 23, the price tag becomes affordable by definition. When you have an elite homegrown player, you do everything in your power to reward him and keep him for as long as possible. The Rangers have done that with a contract that buys out four seasons of unrestricted free agency. There is clarity here."
Just enjoy, don't question it.
Contract Comparables and Analytics:
Look at the deal Charlie McAvoy signed. Same with Morgan Reilly and others. Factor in Fox is 24 and he could have signed a five-year deal, which would have made him a free agent at 29 and the deal looks even better.
If Fox ends up with another Norris Trophy like year and wanted between $10-11 million, would the team have said no? Would it have been a bad deal? So while he didn't really give the team a hometown discount, he also didn't squeeze them for more money that he likely could earned. Plus, now, the possible specter of him being offer sheeted next year is gone.
On the flip side, I think we all know how well - poorly - the team has done with long-term deals for blueliners. Wade Redden is one. Kevin Shattenkirk another. You can argue that Ryan McDonagh didn't fully earn his deal - i will disagree with you - but have heard the argument. Jacob Trouba, despite being better, is overpaid. So the history is unkind. Maybe this is the deal that breaks that trend.
Future Cap Space:
For 2022-23, the Rangers have only 15 players signed with more money committed to this season’s cap ($72.67 million) than they do to the 2022-23 cap ($70.87 million). That is what is known as a cap crunch. The cap is expected to stay flat at $81.5 million net season and rise a $1 million the following season, but the hope has to be that life continues to normalize, allowing for an increase in attendance and hopefully a subsequent rise in the cap. Next season, New York goes from $4.427,778 in dead cap space to $3,427,778 in 2022-23, all of which comes off the books in 2023-24, as of now.
As Arthur Staple wrote, Kaapo Kakko and Sammy Blais will be restricted free agents. If the Rangers move on from Alexandar Georgiev (which looks to be very likely), also an RFA, they’ll need a backup goalie. Ryan Strome is a UFA and needs either a raise or to be replaced. To do all that on less than $12 million will be a challenge, especially if Kakko finds his game this season. He’d be a prime offer-sheet target. K’Andre Miller will be eligible for an extension next summer as well.
The above paragraph shows just how challenging cap management will be. While Patrik Nemeth looked like a decent signing at the time, the difference between him at $2.5 million and let's say Zak Jones or especially Braden Schneider at about $1 million (irrespective of signing bonuses) is a material difference. Is Chris Kreider at $6.5 million, despite his play early this season, now a luxury? What about Barclay Goodrow at $3.641 million? I already highlighted Trouba's $8 mil per season. Plus, just to be clear, not criticizing any of the deals - save for maybe Trouba - but you can understand why the deals could and would be questioned. You could use the same argument on Artemi Panarin's contract if you wanted to, though that would be more of a stretch.
GM Chris Drury will have some difficult decisions this offseason. Fox, however, at that price is not an overpayment, driven by what the market has recently borne. But his signing - along with several others, including Mika Zibanejad's $8.5 mil deal that kicks in next year (and yes, I still like the signing)- does make roster construction more challenging. Kids and cheap veterans will need to be the path forward, which might result in certain players thought to be part of the long-term issue no longer in that spot.
For tonight's game against Vancouver, the lineup for today looks to be the same as Sunday. I would expect Igor Shesterkin between the pipes, which likely means he won't be in net for both ends of the back-to-back this weekend. Ryan Reaves is not yet ready to return from his minor injury, though he is skating. Nils Lundqvist will probably sit a second straight game for Jarred Tinordi. Why, who the heck knows.
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