Updated at 1:55pm:
The Rangers and Ryan Lindgren reached agreement on a one-year, $4.5 million deal, avoiding arbitration. The dollars are certainly a bit higher than I expected for a one-year deal, probably by 250-500k, which also allows Lindgren to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2024-25 season. He can sign an extension January 1, but with $4.5 million possibly as the starting point, that may be unlikely. As I said below, I would have tried for at least a three-year deal in this dollar range, but that time may have passed.

Puck Pedia has the Rangers at 623K with a 23-man roster. We all know, at most the will go with a 22-man roster, adding another 750K or more to that total. Barring a major injury, that should allow a decent amount of available cap space at the deadline, likely around $5 mil or so. In addition, because Lindgren filed for arbitration, New York is eligible in 48 hours to use the second buyout window. I highly doubt that will be exercised, but the option is now there.

Ryan Lindgren and the Rangers have settled on a one-year deal at $4.5M

All arbitration is done

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 30, 2024

Lindgren gets the expected value but only on a one year contract, walking him to UFA in 2025. Arb was scheduled for this Friday. One year for the top 4 defenseman is an interesting choice. #NYR #NHL #Hockey #HockeyX pic.twitter.com/tB8D8Ymzef

— AFP Analytics (@AFPAnalytics) July 30, 2024

After signing Lindgren for $4.5M, #NYR have $623K Projected Cap Space with 23 active players (14F/7D/2G)

With no roster moves, this could fit $2.8M in annual cap hit at the trade deadline.https://t.co/m5lkKF3Esf

— PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) July 30, 2024

Original:
The Rangers and Ryan Lindgren continue to negotiate in the hopes of reaching an agreement in advance of the scheduled August 2 arb hearings. Per Larry Brooks, It is believed that the club is looking for a shorter-term deal in the length of two-to-three seasons while the 26-year-old Lindgren is seeking a deal for four or five seasons. It is also believed that the Blueshirts are offering between $4 million and $4.25 million per year while No. 55 is seeking up to $5M per.

How far apart Rangers, Ryan Lindgren are in contract talks as they try to avoid arbitration tension https://t.co/CZZ2kasZfG pic.twitter.com/NXhKgBdWds

— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) July 29, 2024

Let me tackle a few points in the column, which we have likely discussed in the past. Contract length - Brooks notes that the team and Lindgren could opt for a one-year arb deal and then start re-negotiations to arrive at a longer-term deal on January 1, similar to how New York extended Henrik Lundqvist years ago. Then, the contract was pretty much all buttoned up and the Rangers were playing the salary cap game in waiting to extend him. Now, the two sides are not in alignment, which means Lindgren is looking at free agency, so a solid first half could entice to utilize that option. Though the downside risk of getting injured certainly applies.

Lindgren was qualified at the $3.6 million arb figure, that's the starting point. The risk of arb is that you are at the whim of the arbitrator, who can award a figure anywhere between what the Rangers propose and Lindgren's agent submits. That leaves New York at risk of a higher than anticipated award, which is why agreeing prior to a ruling is key, plus it avoids airing dirty laundry and criticisms somewhat publicly.

I had a feeling the Rangers would be looking for a shorter-term deal, concerned about Lindgren's wear and tear and injury history, though he has almost always come back faster than expected. If they are going to go the shorter route, the likelihood is that the $ figure will need to be higher. A longer term deal, they may be able to massage the dollars to tamp down the impact somewhat.

New York can't go more than five years at the max, seeing that Lindgren is Dan Girardi 2.0. Three years would be the sweet spot, four is fine, five may be pushing it. But if you can get Lindgren for five years at $4.25 million, it's actually a fairly solid contract based on the expected cap rise. On the flip side, as noted above, there is the wear and tear on his body. In addition, as Brooks noted, there are the unknowns of the next contracts for Igor Shesterkin, K’Andre Miller and Alexis Lafreniere that will kick in 2025-26 when the cap increases from this season’s $88M to an expected approximate $92M.

One key is the lack of defensive depth in the system for this season plus where the team stands as ready in the near future. In addition, one aspect which is not just a factor, but could be a primary one, is the relationship between Lindgren and Adam Fox. The duo have a sixth sense for each other. Plus, as we saw last year, Fox is markedly better when he plays with Lindgren. As Brooks stated, in the 4,279:42 of ice time that Lingren has been paired with Kemosabe Fox since they joined forces in 2019-20, the Rangers have scored 200 goals and have allowed 136 for a 59.5 percent goals-for ratio. This is a partnership worth more than traditional offensive numbers, certainly for the Rangers.

Who blinks first?

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