The Penguins got a taste of what the top of the Eastern Conference looks like and it didn’t go so well. The score was close, but the game wasn’t. Florida was the obvious better team. They have more lines that can do more things. Pittsburgh did score three times and it was Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust. They are a one, maybe two, trick pony at the moment. The Panthers are a well-rounded team.

Something has to give for the Penguins. Either some of these depth players regress back to contributing a goal every once in a while, or the coach has to break up the first line to help out in the lineup. The following is a worst case scenario and will probably improve on its own, but the chance is real it doesn’t improve enough for a playoff run:

Kasperi Kapanen has one goal in 24 games while Jeff Carter has one goal in the last 17 games. I’m grouping these two together because they both have mid-tier contracts. It isn’t good enough.

Kapanen has been a disgrace. He is supposedly in his prime. Evgeni Malkin is still a great center and he can’t be bothered to make it work. Kapanen has been demoted multiple times. Mike Sullivan keeps going back to it because it is the coach’s version of a desperate plea to make it work because he really needs it to work. It isn’t working. Kapanen is a limited player. If he is getting rush chances and his shooting percentage is average or better he will look functional. If not, he looks like just another guy. The Penguins overpaid a first round pick and are using up cap space for just another guy at the moment. Even if they secretly wanted to trade Kapanen the timing couldn’t be worse. NHL general managers suffer from recency bias as a general rule. Being demoted and perhaps scratched before the trade deadline isn’t going to help things. The Penguins could of course trade him for a mid-round draft pick to clear the cap space for other moves. I'm over him.

Brock McGinn is another depth player struggling offensively. He has two goals in the last 23 games. While his role isn’t exactly defined by his offense he makes 2.7M and it isn’t good enough. He’s an overpriced 3rd/4th line tweener on a team that didn’t have cap space for an overpriced 3rd/4th line tweener. They didn't learn from the Tanev cap hit that you don't need to pay a premium for capable 4th line play.

Zach Aston Reese has one goal in 50 games. I would move him. I can’t get on board with the “he’s one of the best defensive forwards in the league” stuff. Who cares? I just can’t pretend to care. I dont think defensive metrics are as valuable as the offensive metrics we have at our disposal. I don’t know how you can watch Zach Aston-Reese and think the league’s best players are worried about lining up against him. He makes 1.725M. Every dollar matters for this team. Let Radim Zohorna or Drew O’Connor take his place. Nobody would notice.

Then there’s the group of depth players that make close to the league minimum so part of it is you get what you pay for, but these guys need to be better and have been better this year.

Evan Rodrigues’ fall from grace has been rough. He has one goal in the last 25 games. Unlike Kapanen he is a competent NHL player when not scoring goals. He’s certainly not the player he was for two months, but I also think he’s better than what his production has been the last 25 games. I would put him with Evgeni Malkin instead of Kapanen even though he is in a similar slump. He has more to give.

Danton Heinen was a throwaway depth signing. He has three goals in the last 22 games. He has 12 goals on the year. He’s a 1.1M player who is doing things a 1.1M player does. You can navigate this situation because of the lower cap hit situation and the one-year term. I look at Heinen as an extra forward you plug in as a placeholder in the lineup, wherever that may be.

Domink Simon, well we knew he can’t score goals. Anybody surprised by his three goals in 52 games is just choosing not to pay attention. He sees the ice well. Is a good passer. Underlying numbers have historically been decent. He just isn’t going to score goals and you kind of need to do better than 3 in 52.

In the meantime, Mike Sullivan could break up the first line and help spread the talent out more evenly. Sidney Crosby is playing at an amazing level since finding his stride this season. Given he is playing like a superstar perhaps he could afford to give up one of his wingers and elevate someone else. Malkin is flying solo right now. He's also looking like himself and I can't help but believe if he had Guentzel or Rust we would be seeing even more tangible results from 71. Splitting Guentzel and Rust also creates a situation where Evan Rodrigues and perhaps Danton Heinen can play the third wheel on a line with two studs. I would imagine they'd find the back of the net in a situation like that. Sure, the team would still be top heavy, but with Teddy Blueger coming back the fourth line would be set and forget and you'd really just be figuring out the third line. It might be easier to find third line help given the assets the Penguins have available anyways.

Something has to give. The status quo isn't going to work.

Thanks for reading!

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