Life is seldom black and white with everything typically being more in shades of gray. Tracking stats and looking at the Oilers start to the season is no different. Two things can be true at the same time; the Oilers have run into some bad puck luck to start the season, and they also have not played nearly good enough.

The Oilers rank 4th in the NHL with an xGF of 14.97 they rank 25th in actual 5 on 5 goals with 8. They also have the 5th lowest PDO at 0.941 and the second worst shooting percentage in the NHL at 4.94%.

Putting all those elements together suggests that very similar to last season, the Oilers are creating among the best chances in the NHL and eventually this will regress back to the mean and once it does, we will see a huge uptick in production from all the top end players.

Also true is that the Edmonton Oilers aren't playing nearly good enough.

The last game against the Stars was a perfect example. For nearly 40 minutes, the Edmonton Oilers were dominating the Dallas Stars who had started the season 4-1-0 up to that point. Shots at one point were 20-8 in favor of the Oilers and had it not been for an outstanding performance from Jake Oettinger, the Oilers likely would have been leading 3-0.

Instead the game remained scoreless until a late PP where Duchene beat Skinner clean from far away, putting the Stars up. From then on, the wind seemed to be sucked out of the Oilers sails as the Stars continued to pile on. Skinner certainly wasn't good enough but it's hard to win any game when you don't score.

Some of these elements will improve just by some puck luck going their way but the team also cannot simply sit there and hope that it improves. The team needs to collectively return to playing a far simpler game at both ends of the ice.

Here are the lines tonight against the Hurricanes:

RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Podkolzin-Henrique-Perry
Janmark-Ryan-Brown

Ekholm-Bouchard
Dermott-Nurse
Kulak-Stecher

Skinner

A couple switches in the bottom six and McDavid and Draisaitl are once again split up with their originally expected wingers. Most interesting here is that Darnell Nurse will be playing his off side along with Travis Dermott. I can't recall any game where Nurse played the right side which is very intriguing. I suppose that Nurse likely cannot play any worse on the right side so it's a decent gamble by Knoblauch.

---

The other area of play that needs a massive fix is special teams. The Oilers currently have the worst PK in the NHL at 55% and the 4th worst PP in the NHL at 6.7%. This is a long way away from the dominant special teams that were shown in the playoffs last year. The PK is at least somewhat understandable with the loss of some personnel and the goaltending issues Edmonton has started the season with.

The powerplay issues are more concerning to me because this isn't about puck luck or great goaltending. The Oilers powerplay has looked brutal to start the year with an absence of an urgency or real high danger chances. One of the biggest issues has been Ryan Nugent Hopkins who simply has not looked confident at any areas of the ice yet. The coaching staff has stated they may try new things on the powerplay and first and foremost in my mind would be putting Jeff Skinner on the PP over Nuge. Skinner is a natural shooter and gives the Oilers a legit scoring threat from the opposite end of the ice, something they really have never had in the McDavid era.

The Hurricanes are a great team and tonight will be another hard test for the Oilers but if this team hopes to be a contender once again they need to start showing it.

Thanks for reading.

Join the Discussion: » 2 Comments » Post New Comment

» Oilers Start To Get Back On Track - Big Test Against Dallas

» Oilers Need To Think Faster

» History Repeats As Oilers Start Season Flat

» Oilers Season Opener - Quest for Cup Begins Again

» Pre-Season Almost Finished - Opening Night Roster Set?