Consider this blog the counterpoint to the point made in a
previous blog on October 19 that focused on the impact of having a Big 3 on the blueline.
For the Blackhawks, do any of the D prospects project to be Big 3 material? Are there even two to form a top pair? How about just one to be the #1 defenseman?
Furthermore, if a team lacks the personnel for a prototypical Big 3 -- think Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Niklas Hjalmarsson in their prime -- then is being a contender simply out of the question?
I would argue no.
There’s no doubt that one ideal scenario would be to have a Big 3 who can carry the load as far as shutting down the other teams’ best players and consistently flipping the ice with ease.
However, another ideal scenario -- especially in this era of smaller puck-moving blueliners -- is to have a Starting 6 who are each balanced to effectively play in all zones and equally trusted to log minutes.
So do the Blackhawks have enough for a Big 3 or enough for a Starting 6?
I would argue the latter is the reality for Chicago’s future on the back end and that this set of six on the backline could be a key cog -- not a detriment -- to building a contender again.
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What's the criteria then for a Starting 6?
From my perspective, each defenseman needs:
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Strong Skating: Does each D-man have quickness and agility with straight-away speed a definite advantage but not a requirement?
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Passing Ability: Does each D-man have the acumen to make smart, crisp passes to clear the zone and to generate offense from the point?
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Hockey IQ: Does each D-man have the intelligence and vision to see the entire ice, realize a variety of options, and make the optimal decision?
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Defensive Toolkit: Does each D-man have the wherewithal and courage to defend in different ways including stick checking, managing gaps, closing off lanes, bumping to cause separation, playing the body, etc?
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Compete Level: Does each D-man have the capacity to compete hard every shift, contest every puck, and commit to defense in every zone?
With these traits in mind, who has them -- not necessarily all equally but to some degree or other?
The D prospects who check off all the boxes are Ian Mitchell and Lucas Carlsson.
Mitchell has the edge in terms of the potential to pull everything together into a cohesive package at a level worthy of the top pair or even status as a #1 defenseman.
While Carlsson possesses all of these traits, he is a notch below with a 2nd pair ceiling similar to fellow Swede and comparable Hjalmarsson.
Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin are plus skaters with dynamic passing and keen hockey sense but their defense needs refining and their compete needs consistency.
I would use the same description as Boqvist and Beaudin to also describe Chad Krys. However, like Carlsson is a step below Mitchell, Krys is a step below Boqvist and Beaudin.
Wyatt Kalynuk and Alec Regula are being hyped up to be on the same plane as Beaudin but could be more on par with Krys as more 2nd or 3rd pair defenders.
Same with Slava Demin. While he is an excellent skater like Kalynuk, he needs to push the pace more at both ends but seems to be fine if he exerts himself.
Alex Vlasic could be the defensive defenseman that the team needs on the 1st or 2nd pair. However, he is similar to Demin in needing to put all his raw skills together to be an impact player.
Then there’s Jakub Galvas who is undersized but competes hard in his own end, skates well, and jumps into the play but may not be as high as other D prospects in the hockey IQ department.
Joshua Ess, Roope Laavianen, and Cole Moberg may not have enough to climb the depth chart within the system to garner an ELC. Perhaps they get signed to AHL deals to prove their worth in the ECHL first.
However, it wouldn’t be a loss if the Hawks part ways with all three of them. Nothing really stands out with them that pushes the needle past the marker for career minor leaguer.
Lastly, there is this year’s crop of rearguard draftees in Wyatt Kaiser, Michael Krutil, Isaak Phillips, and Louis Crevier. Too early to prognosticate yet I do like the high compete level that all four have.
The two that stand out most are Kaiser and Phillips. Kaiser is the other Wyatt who already has NHL-caliber skating. Phillips plays a two-way physical style that reminds me of P.K. Subban.
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Once Keith and Seabrook are gone either by way of retirement, trades, or not re-signed once their contracts expire, what could the future blueline look like?
Let’s take a look at a projection of the D corps based on who is in the system presently while keeping in mind that not all will make it to the NHL or at least not in a Blackhawks sweater.
1st pair options: Beaudin, Boqvist, Mitchell
2nd pair options: Carlsson, Kaiser, Kalynuk, Vlasic
3rd pair options: Demin, Galvas, Krys, Phillips, Regula
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See you on the boards!
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