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Coronato's Emergence – First Line Troubles – Calgary's Secret Weapon |
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The Calgary Flames are now 45 games into the 2024-2025 season and get a brief period of rest before getting back to action on Thursday against the down-and-out Buffalo Sabres at the Scotiabank Saddledome.
With a bit of time off, we can take a moment to catch up with the team. With a record of 22-16-7, where is this group at? Who is rising and who is falling? Most importantly, what’s next?
A Timely Emergence
It’s been no secret that Matthew Coronato's offensive success has served as a primary contributor to the recent success of the team.
Recording two goals and four assists for six points in eight January games to date, Coronato has climbed to fourth in team scoring, trailing Blake Coleman by a mere point.
Statistics aside, Coronato’s puck protection game has improved significantly in the second quarter. His ability to win short puck races has been a primary driver of his increased amount of offensive opportunities.
At just 22 years old, the Greenlawn, New York product is taking a major step this season toward running the offence. If he passes Coleman, Coronato has only Jonathan Huberdeau (32 points) and Nazem Kadri (29 points) to pass.
Speaking of 22-year-olds.
A Roring Start
It’s been fun watching Rory Kerins start out his career.
The 174th selection in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft now has four assists in his first four games including one on the power play. His big start has thrust Kerins past Justin Kirkland at the top of the Flames even strength points per 60 list.
Points Per 60 – Calgary Flames
Rory Kerins: 3.77
Justin Kirkland: 2.67
Jakob Pelletier: 2.63
Rory and his most frequent linemate, Jakob Pelletier, have promptly proven that the two are able to translate their AHL chemistry to the National Hockey League. The two have been on the ice for four 5v5 goals and are yet to allow a goal against.
There are a few underlying stats that imply that the two will slow down.
Their PDO (as close as we have to a luck stat) together is remarkably high at 1.286. They get most of their deployments in the offensive zone; 66.67% of their 31 faceoffs, which probably won’t continue to fly once they go a couple games without a goal.
The two, in combination with the Coleman-Backlund-Coronato line have carried the offence in the new year.
Which is convenient because.
The First Line Aint It Lately
The unit of Huberdeau-Kadri-Pospisil is likely due for a shakeup. Finishers Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau have just three points apiece in eight January games. Pospisil has a mere primary assist, recorded during a 2-1 loss to the St. Louis Blues last Tuesday.
The three simply seem to be missing a step lately. High-danger passes arrive a half-second too late, puck movement along the perimeter isn’t concise enough, and there isn’t a threat of beating the opposition to the outside in a race.
Much of the line’s success quietly goes to Martin Pospisil. Kadri and Huberdeau love to involve the defenceman in the play, and Martin has already done most of the hard work by the time the Flames are ready to set up a shot on net.
Hits Leaders Through Eight January Games
Martin Pospisil: 33
MacKenzie Weegar: 18
Blake Coleman: 17
Pospisil, who has played through injuries already this season, may simply be tired. Perhaps four days off between games is just what the doctor ordered for the Flames’ first line.
It certainly is interesting to see fans hoping to see the 25-year-old Slovakian demoted. Kadri and Huberdeau would need to either pick up the slack on the forecheck or find another puck-retrieval specialist.
The Team is Enjoying Trade Silence
2024-2025 has to be a nice change from the season prior. The lingering exodus of pending free agents, the contract extension drama, the Jacob Markstrom deal that fell apart mere steps from the finish line.
This season has been a pleasant game of asking, “Who is injured now?”
Followed by, “Which player on the Wranglers will get a shot while they’re out?”
That’s pretty much been it. No lingering questions about players wanting to be in Calgary. The biggest question surrounding a player has been, “Will Andrei Kuzmenko get out of his funk?”
To be sure, General Manager Craig Conroy is working to phones. The second-year GM has noted that this year has been tricky given the amount of league-wide parity.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/qa-flames-gm-craig-conroy-on-deadline-plans-amid-surprising-playoff-hunt/
“Everyone feels like they're in the fight here,” said Conroy during an interview with Eric Francis in early January. “And that complicates the process. Every staff is asking, ‘are we adding or are we selling? What's the best path moving forward?’”
Perhaps we see the market open up a bit, but returns on Kuzmenko, Kevin Rooney, or goaltender Daniel Vladar are likely to be low in value.
Conroy also mentioned that the team continues to look for a trade that will bring in a 23 to 25-year-old center. Preferably, one that shoots right.
Good luck.
The Ideal Fit
In terms of Conroy’s quest, the market does indeed seem a strange place to make a deal.
Dylan Cozens out of Buffalo fits the criteria. Minus 18 and with a mere 22 points through 45, he may be interested in a change of scenery. The Sabres currently sit in 29th place with just 39 points.
Another option? One of JT Miller or Elias Petterson out of Vancouver.
There appears to be a great deal of drama in the Canucks dressing room. Elliotte Friedman reported last weekend that a deal sending Miller back to the New York Rangers fell through.
Could the Flames swoop in and make a deal? Would Miller, 31, or Petterson, 27, waive their trade protection to go to Calgary?
The latter could perhaps be sold on joining his fellow countrymen Rasmus Andersson and Mikael Backlund. Elias has reportedly told the Canucks that he wants to stick around.
Given the rumours about clashing personalities and the fact that Miller is signed at an $8,000,000 annual average value for another five seasons; it’s impressive that he is drawing so much interest.
Oh, what a +100 point season will do for a player’s trade value.
Friedman reported today that he beleives Miller’s preference is to go to the eastern United States.
MVP
Most Hart Trophy candidates need to be on a team considered in contender territory to get enough votes to make noise.
Add on that rookie netminder Dustin Wolf is playing in a Western Conference that most experts don’t stay up to watch, and you can say goodbye to whatever fever dream that notion is.
Still, in Calgary, it’s a discussion. The Calgary Flames are likely floating just above the real stinkers of the NHL without Wolf and his 16-7-2 record in net.
Per Money Puck, Wolf is carrying his team just about as much as former Flames Jacob Markstrom is with his new team, the New Jersey Devils.
Goals Saved Above Expected
10. Jacob Markstrom: 11.8
11. Dustin Wolf: 11.7
Markstrom was in Vezina contention last season until a rough finish saw the goaltender fall out of the race.
Interestingly enough, Wolf isn’t even pushing the letter when it comes to the Calder Trophy. The Gilroy, California product comes in at around +3000 odds on most lists. That’s a $30 dollar payout for every dollar staked.
2024 first overall pick Macklin Celebrini remains the favourite, Lane Huston in Montreal has surged to second place in the odds, and Matvei Michkov of the Flyers slots in third at around +1300.
Even Jakub Dobes of the Canadiens has passed Wolf on several lists, despite playing only six games (5-0-1).
This is because the majority of the guys doing the voting are secretly fans of the teams they cover and usually don't have the time or energy to watch Western Conference teams playing each other.
Perhaps this is all for the best for the six-foot keeper. He can remain Calgary’s secret weapon. The team already has a Calder winner in Jonathan Huberdeau when the crafty playmaker won it in 2013.
14 of Wolf’s 16 wins have been in games where the Flames scored three or less goals. Over 25 games, Dustin has a save percentage of .917 and a goals against average of 2.50.
The Calgary Flames resume play on Thursday against the Buffalo Sabres.
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