Steven Hindle: The Subban Effect ...

Good Stuff Steve!

Subban is an absolute gem!!!

Steven Hindle: The Subban Effect
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- hindlehabs

Subban is tied with Daniel Sedin because Luongo's contract sucks!!!

So the answer is to trade him while his value is high right?
I suggest we ship PK, Price, Pacioretty and a 1st to Tampa.

He looks great out there, no question, but it hasn't been even CLOSE to top 3 in the league, especially when the vast majority of his points are on the man-advantage - he's only scored 10 even strength points through 31 games.

He's also 4th on his own team in TOI among defensemen, not exactly a common quality among Norris winners....

Lastly, the player usage charts for Habs defensemen shows he's being sheltered more than any other D on the team, with Diaz/Gorges/Yemelin/Markov taking all the tough opponents and D zone starts:



They do make one hell of a PP pairing, but based on all of the above there's simply no way he's a Norris candidate. The PP skill is mostly what he's bringing to the table.

He looks great out there, no question, but it hasn't been even CLOSE to top 3 in the league, especially when the vast majority of his points are on the man-advantage - he's only scored 10 even strength points through 31 games.

He's also 4th on his own team in TOI among defensemen, not exactly a common quality among Norris winners....

Lastly, the player usage charts for Habs defensemen shows he's being sheltered more than any other D on the team, with Diaz/Gorges/Yemelin/Markov taking all the tough opponents and D zone starts:



They do make one hell of a PP pairing, but based on all of the above there's simply no way he's a Norris candidate. The PP skill is mostly what he's bringing to the table.
- TommyDeVito

The problem with that chart is that in a shortened season, he missed 5 games and then when he came back he was eased into his role because of no camp. As such he is playing his 25 mins or so a game now but was only playing 12 mins a game for his first 7-8 games.

He is withiout a doubt in the Norris conversation because like Suter and Letang he is getting the points but does so against the oppositions best on a nightly basis.

He looks great out there, no question, but it hasn't been even CLOSE to top 3 in the league, especially when the vast majority of his points are on the man-advantage - he's only scored 10 even strength points through 31 games.

He's also 4th on his own team in TOI among defensemen, not exactly a common quality among Norris winners....

Lastly, the player usage charts for Habs defensemen shows he's being sheltered more than any other D on the team, with Diaz/Gorges/Yemelin/Markov taking all the tough opponents and D zone starts:



They do make one hell of a PP pairing, but based on all of the above there's simply no way he's a Norris candidate. The PP skill is mostly what he's bringing to the table.
- TommyDeVito

His name is in the mix. But no he won't win it this season.

There still are games to be played mind you.

The problem with that chart is that in a shortened season, he missed 5 games and then when he came back he was eased into his role because of no camp. As such he is playing his 25 mins or so a game now but was only playing 12 mins a game for his first 7-8 games.

He is withiout a doubt in the Norris conversation because like Suter and Letang he is getting the points but does so against the oppositions best on a nightly basis.
- willey101

No, he's not. It's that simple. Make all the excuses you want, he's a PP wizard and isn't playing the tough minutes.

The chart is not all about TOI, if he was playing less minutes but playing them against tough opponents and starting shifts deep in his own zone, it would show.

10 ES points in 31 games is not Norris #'s.

EDIT: In fact, if anyone should be in the Norris convo based on the numbers and ice time this season, it's my man Andrei (frank)ing Markov.

No, he's not. It's that simple. Make all the excuses you want, he's a PP wizard and isn't playing the tough minutes.

The chart is not all about TOI, if he was playing less minutes but playing them against tough opponents and starting shifts deep in his own zone, it would show.

10 ES points in 31 games is not Norris #'s.

EDIT: In fact, if anyone should be in the Norris convo based on the numbers and ice time this season, it's my man Andrei (frank)ing Markov.
- TommyDeVito

You do an adorable impression of a hockey fan, Tommy.

Subban plays shutdown defense. You know who doesn't? Erik Karlsson.

No, he's not. It's that simple. Make all the excuses you want, he's a PP wizard and isn't playing the tough minutes.

The chart is not all about TOI, if he was playing less minutes but playing them against tough opponents and starting shifts deep in his own zone, it would show.

10 ES points in 31 games is not Norris #'s.

EDIT: In fact, if anyone should be in the Norris convo based on the numbers and ice time this season, it's my man Andrei (frank)ing Markov.
- TommyDeVito

The man with all his points on the PP? Subban has benefited from Markov but he's more valuable to the habs than Markov. I don't care for all norris talk (i personally would rather he doesn't win it) but Subban is by far our most important player after Price.

You do an adorable impression of a hockey fan, Tommy.

Subban plays shutdown defense. You know who doesn't? Erik Karlsson.
- oniremosewa

Ignore the chart showing you that what you're saying is completely untrue, IDGAF - just don't be shocked when Subban isn't nominated for the Norris.

No, he's not. It's that simple. Make all the excuses you want, he's a PP wizard and isn't playing the tough minutes.

The chart is not all about TOI, if he was playing less minutes but playing them against tough opponents and starting shifts deep in his own zone, it would show.

10 ES points in 31 games is not Norris #'s.
- TommyDeVito

Again, this is an account since the beggning of the year when he first came in.
For the first 7-8 games Therrien put a leash on the kid and restricted his minutes which now hurts his ice time.

You bring up tough minutes but that didn;t seem to impeed Karlsson last season in winning the Norris. Every D man on Ottawa played more than him on PK

Again, this is an account since the beggning of the year when he first came in.
For the first 7-8 games Therrien put a leash on the kid and restricted his minutes which now hurts his ice time.

You bring up tough minutes but that didn;t seem to impeed Karlsson last season in winning the Norris. Every D man on Ottawa played more than him on PK
- willey101

Yes, and he played the toughest even strength minutes out of anyone. But again, we're not talking about Karlsson so I'm not sure why he's being brought up.

I'm not trying to start a pissing match, I'm just telling you, based on the numbers, Subban spends most of his even strength time on ice against the other teams third lines, and he's still only putting up 0.33 ES points per game.

If he has been playing great against the top opposition the last handful of games, hat's great, I'm happy to hear that for you guys, he's a good player - but don't start Norris talk when the first half of his season wasn't really impressive.

No, he's not. It's that simple. Make all the excuses you want, he's a PP wizard and isn't playing the tough minutes.

The chart is not all about TOI, if he was playing less minutes but playing them against tough opponents and starting shifts deep in his own zone, it would show.

10 ES points in 31 games is not Norris #'s.

EDIT: In fact, if anyone should be in the Norris convo based on the numbers and ice time this season, it's my man Andrei (frank)ing Markov.
- TommyDeVito

I don't know how you can, on one hand, say Subban can't be in the Norris convo because he only has 10 points ES and then, on the other, say Markov should, despite the fact that all his points come on the PP...

Yes, and he played the toughest even strength minutes out of anyone. But again, we're not talking about Karlsson so I'm not sure why he's being brought up.

I'm not trying to start a pissing match, I'm just telling you, based on the numbers, Subban spends most of his even strength time on ice against the other teams third lines, and he's still only putting up 0.33 ES points per game.

If he has been playing great against the top opposition the last handful of games, hat's great, I'm happy to hear that for you guys, he's a good player - but don't start Norris talk when the first half of his season wasn't really impressive.
- TommyDeVito

Where do you see that? Subban/Gorges is our most trusted shut down combo. Markov/Emelin hardly face tougher opposition.

I sort of agree, sort of disagree w/ Tommy on this.

I don't blame Therrien for using P.K. Subban in soft[er], offensive-minded minutes. It's brilliant deployment, and it's not dissimilar to what MacLean did last year w/ Karlsson. When you have a weapon like that, you give him the minutes, and let the plugs clean up the mess on the back-end.

Or, alternatively: the disparity between Subban and Canadien Defender X in DZ TOI is probably marginal; the disparity between Subban and Canadien Defender X in OZ TOI is probably great.

What I do agree w/ is that his points are padded by the power-play, and although he's been fantastic at driving possession on even-strength, the points simply haven't come, even though his on-ice shooting percentage is 10.22%, which is dumb high. On one front, I'd say that if Subban keeps playing as he is, the ES scoring will come. On the other front, I think the lack of scoring there can strip down his Norris candidacy -- unfortunately, the award's not awarded on what shouldbe happening there.

The PK argument is yawnworthy, as usual. You're not going to waste your best defenseman on heavy PK TOI if you have other depth that can pick up those minutes and preserve a quality defenseman w/ superior offensive skills to go to work at evens or the man advantage.

I'd give Subban a vote, but the ES scoring and lack of TOI probably holds him back from winning it.

Yes, and he played the toughest even strength minutes out of anyone. But again, we're not talking about Karlsson so I'm not sure why he's being brought up.

I'm not trying to start a pissing match, I'm just telling you, based on the numbers, Subban spends most of his even strength time on ice against the other teams third lines, and he's still only putting up 0.33 ES points per game.

If he has been playing great against the top opposition the last handful of games, hat's great, I'm happy to hear that for you guys, he's a good player - but don't start Norris talk when the first half of his season wasn't really impressive.
- TommyDeVito

personally bringing up karlsson because you say tough minutes and a player cannot win nor even be mentioned in a conversation because of a perceived lack of tough minutes yet you fail to acknowledge that karlsson played the least amount of PK minutes on a team yet still was able to win.

Cannot have an argument 2 ways.

Furthermore you're basing an argument on this spreadsheet which accounts for the ice time since the beginning of the year. A spreadsheet which features Diaz who hasn't played in over a month.

if you watched the games you'd see that PK originally played soft minutes paired with Bouillon but after 7 games + 5 he missed because of a contract he then became the top paring with Gorges playing against the oppositions best every single night

Where do you see that? Subban/Gorges is our most trusted shut down combo. Markov/Emelin hardly face tougher opposition.
- God_then_kovy

Maybe lately that's been true, but season-wise that chart above I posted shows a GLARING difference between Subban's lack of shutdown minutes, and Gorges always playing shutdown minutes.

I sort of agree, sort of disagree w/ Tommy on this.

I don't blame Therrien for using P.K. Subban in soft
- Travis Yost[er], offensive-minded minutes. It's brilliant deployment, and it's not dissimilar to what MacLean did last year w/ Karlsson. When you have a weapon like that, you give him the minutes, and let the plugs clean up the mess on the back-end.

Or, alternatively: the disparity between Subban and Canadien Defender X in DZ TOI is probably marginal; the disparity between Subban and Canadien Defender X in OZ TOI is probably great.

What I do agree w/ is that his points are padded by the power-play, and although he's been fantastic at driving possession on even-strength, the points simply haven't come, even though his on-ice shooting percentage is 10.22%, which is quite high.

The PK argument is yawnworthy, as usual. You're not going to waste your best defenseman on heavy PK TOI if you have other depth that can pick up those minutes and preserve a quality defenseman w/ superior offensive skills to go to work at evens or the man advantage.

I'd give Subban a vote, but the ES scoring and lack of TOI probably holds him back from winning it.

Subban and Gorges plays as much as Markov and Emelin against other team's top lines. It wasn't the case for Subban when he was being eased into the team but for the past 20 games he's been our most reliable defenseman.

I sort of agree, sort of disagree w/ Tommy on this.

I don't blame Therrien for using P.K. Subban in soft
- Travis Yost[er], offensive-minded minutes. It's brilliant deployment, and it's not dissimilar to what MacLean did last year w/ Karlsson. When you have a weapon like that, you give him the minutes, and let the plugs clean up the mess on the back-end.

Or, alternatively: the disparity between Subban and Canadien Defender X in DZ TOI is probably marginal; the disparity between Subban and Canadien Defender X in OZ TOI is probably great.

What I do agree w/ is that his points are padded by the power-play, and although he's been fantastic at driving possession on even-strength, the points simply haven't come, even though his on-ice shooting percentage is 10.22%, which is dumb high.

The PK argument is yawnworthy, as usual. You're not going to waste your best defenseman on heavy PK TOI if you have other depth that can pick up those minutes and preserve a quality defenseman w/ superior offensive skills to go to work at evens or the man advantage.

I'd give Subban a vote, but the ES scoring and lack of TOI probably holds him back from winning it.

Nobody here is arguing that PK will win the Norris but he is without a doubt in the conversation.

Maybe lately that's been true, but season-wise that chart above I posted shows a GLARING difference between Subban's lack of shutdown minutes, and Gorges always playing shutdown minutes.
- TommyDeVito

That chart doesn't indicate Subban's softened role at the start of the season and missing the first 6 games. Therien trusts Subban/Gorges just as much as Markov/Emelin if not more considering Markov's reduced mobility.

Nobody here is arguing that PK will win the Norris but he is without a doubt in the conversation.
- willey101

Considering how crazy our fans are and the fact that he'll be up for a huge contract, i'd rather he doesn't win it. I wouldn't even mind if he doesn't get nominated. Team Canada in the Olympics is a different story though..

personally bringing up karlsson because you say tough minutes and a player cannot win nor even be mentioned in a conversation because of a perceived lack of tough minutes yet you fail to acknowledge that karlsson played the least amount of PK minutes on a team yet still was able to win.

Cannot have an argument 2 ways.

Furthermore you're basing an argument on this spreadsheet which accounts for the ice time since the beginning of the year. A spreadsheet which features Diaz who hasn't played in over a month.

if you watched the games you'd see that PK originally played soft minutes paired with Bouillon but after 7 games + 5 he missed because of a contract he then became the top paring with Gorges playing against the oppositions best every single night
- willey101

First off, it's not having an arguement two ways, because this spreadsheet is ES minutes only (you know, the MAJORITY OF MINUTES IN A GAME). Secondly, defensively specialists are better served for the PK than stars. I don't care if Subban plays the PK or not, I'm not judging him for that.

Secondly, you're trying to tell me that this chart should count because 7 of 31 games where PK was eased in throws it off, but there's simply no way that it could be thrown off by that much based on 23% of the season. If, like you're saying, he's played the toughest minutes on D of anyone on the team for the other 77% of the games this year, then he would be up well above the middle horizontal line, and further back towards the middle line.

Subban and Gorges plays as much as Markov and Emelin against other team's top lines. It wasn't the case for Subban when he was being eased into the team but for the past 20 games he's been our most reliable defenseman.
- God_then_kovy

You're neglecting zone starts, which really contribute to possession numbers and scoring.

Subban and Markov see > 51% OZs -- a nice balance of minutes, and honestly, if I'm Therrien, I'm giving them a higher amount. Emelin's right there at about 50%.

Gorges sees 45%, Diaz 44%. Those are the two that stand-out as statistically significant.

There's nothing about reliability here. Subban can eat up defensive zone minutes and play well in them, I don't doubt that. Great coaches know how to fix deployment, though. Therrien probably could even skew it a bit further, if you ask me.

Vigneault's been riding the Sedin twins into lofty minutes for the past five years, and really, it's just smart matching. If you want the Sedin twins to play a two-way, balanced game, you're not extrapolating proper output, and you're going to need a bunch of bottom-six plugs to pick up scoring slack in OZ TOI.

Considering how crazy our fans are and the fact that he'll be up for a huge contract, i'd rather he doesn't win it. I wouldn't even mind if he doesn't get nominated. Team Canada in the Olympics is a different story though..
- God_then_kovy

Just think of the contract extension we need o offer Ryder, let alone Subban.
Then Again maybe Ryder's goals shouldn't be important since they are only PP goals with very little productivity ES>