I don't agree with your characterization for the Senators re-build.

They dealt away Mike Fisher (for two picks not one), Chris Kelly, Alex Kovalev, Chris Campoli, Jarkko Ruutu and then flipped picks with Detroit at the draft to stockpile four choices among the first 31 in the up coming entry draft.

They also had a depth of talent to draw from their Calder Cup winning farm club in addition to the draft picks they acquired.
- Doppleganger

you just regurgitated what I said.

None of the 2011 picks the Sens got had any impact on the sens making or not making the playoffs the following season. its the 5 or 6 stars and veterans they kept.

any prospects the sens had coming that were ready to step in were drafted long before the proclaimed rebuild. Cowan, Silf, Lehner, Karlsson, weirchoch, zack smith, gryba, daugavins...all drafted 2009 and back...2 years before the "rebuild" started

also forgot Condra, Greening drafted in 05 and 06

I do t give a poop about the number of hacks in their basement using advanced stats. It's nonsense. Unproven and incredibly flawed.


Real hockey publications (ie THN are saying otherwise regarding the leafs and the playoffs)

If you're having a hard time understanding what is writen Perhaps you could ask someone nearby to explain it. It's right there in black and white, writen in plain English. You only have your self to blame it you are having issues understanding.
- burn

There's actually a Calgary guy who came up with some possession stat (Where that's all that matters) and he came up with the conclusion Calgary is a better team than the Leafs

You're right, the main publications pick the Leafs as a solid up-and-coming team.

I think that is a pretty good account of the situation.

My interpretation is that ownership (Bell) wanted to fire him for off ice issues and management style reasons. I believe he was fired at the last minute in a shock announcement because Bell feared he might make the playoffs in a shortened season and it would have made it so much harder to release him.

Remember, when they did fire him there was not much media support in his corner. Lots of stories about the failure of team to make playoffs and the negative consequences coming from the Kessel trade.
- spatso

I think Burke and the Kessel deal look much better now in everyone's eyes now than the day he was fired. The team getting to the playoffs and Kessel looking like a true star in those playoffs turned things around.

The criticism over the Kessel trade has been proven to be premature. Very premature.

The Ottawa thing is really important. Many Leaf fans benchmark the progress of the Leafs in relation to other Canadian teams, especially Montreal and Ottawa. Indeed, Leaf post season success over the last 45 years is measured in relation to a non call on a high sticking by Gretsky and a series of first round playoff victories over an emerging and talented Ottawa team. But, those are now historical items.

The Ottawa rebuild is a perplexing and intimidating matter to all Leaf fans. The prediction that I made that got some Leaf fans so twisted was that the Senators would recognize their need for a rebuild, trade some key players, build through the draft and attain elite status before the Leafs. For lack of a precise definition let's assume elite status is becoming a legitimate Stanley Cup contender in the eyes of a majority of hockey students. (In that regard I advocated that the Senators should cut deep, including trading Spezza as part of the rebuild.) Clearly my thinking in this regard was shaped by the Kessel deal. Again, I need to stress I never disliked Kessel, as a player, but I despised the deal. The same can be said for the Senators and their deal for Bobby Ryan. Love the player but they gave up way too much talent.

Anyway, it appears that many commentators believe the Senators are now ready for prime time. Is it true they only missed the playoffs one year during their rebuilding period? This is and should be upsetting to many of the Leaf faithful. We wandered in the wilderness for 10 years and commentators ( especially those doing advanced metrics) suggest the Leafs are going to fall back again this year).

I have no difficulty with the idea that Burke did some very good hockey deals. But, in my mind, the Kessel trade was a deal breaker. He broke the promise that he would build through the draft. We will never know how different this team could be had Burke taken a few years to build a deeper talent pool by employing a stronger draft and development priority in those first few years.

Not sure why your so hostile to Seguin. Kid has some off ice issues. Not uncommon in the NHL. He is earning huge bucks at 21 years of age. Boston has a serious cap squeeze so they trade Seguin for Ericsson, pretty good hockey trade for a Stanley Cup finalist. But, you miss the entire issue when you spend your time hoping that Seguin fails in order to prove maybe Burke did a good deal. It was not the players involved, it was the bankruptcy of his conviction to build through the draft.
- spatso

This is news to Leaf fans. They finished below the Leafs in the standings.


You seem to not get this. Ottawa has to play "Elite" before you call them "Elite". Same with Seguin and Hamilton.

This is really important. In dealing for Kessel Burke said it was because the Leafs were ready to contend. They were not and they finished second from the bottom and the Bruins grabbed Seguin. If nothing else, you expect your GM to be able to realistically assess his own talent and player needs. On this count Burke failed miserably.

I believe Burke was fired for some form of personal misconduct. But, I also believe, had the Leafs made the playoffs his situation would have been more secure.

I like Nonis.
- spatso

Why even quote Burke and take it seriously? He does nothing but spew B.S. Who cares what he said? He got a 21 year-old future superstar in that trade. This wasn't a deal for a 33 year-old UFA. Kessel has helped the Leafs and will continue to.

There's actually a Calgary guy who came up with some possession stat (Where that's all that matters) and he came up with the conclusion Calgary is a better team than the Leafs

You're right, the main publications pick the Leafs as a solid up-and-coming team.
- RogerRoeper

There is no doubt the guys who practice the dark arts of hockey analytics say the Leaf key numbers are not looking very good for next season. In particular, they believe that MacArthur and Grabovski were huge losses and Clarkson simply does not compute well in hockey analytics.

But hockey is played on the ice, not on a calculator. Intangibles like toughness and character cannot be computed in the same way as possession and shot differentials. In terms of the Atlantic Division I believe the Leafs are stronger than Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo and both Florida teams. I think Boston may be a tired team and like most other Stanley Cup finalists from past years they will be very slow coming out of the gate. I believe the Senators are the most talented team in the Atlantic, they are also the youngest in the NHL and what is not often discussed they are a huge, very physical team.

But the Leafs always match up well with the Sens. And, the Sens are very young and Karlsson and Spezza have to demonstrate they are healed from injury and we also need to see if Bobby Ryan fits into the Sens possession style game.

I can see the Leafs and Senators fighting all season for the Atlantic Division lead. I think Boston and Detroit fight for the third spot with Boston securing it down the stretch (Detroit is too old, and the law of unintended consequences suggests the move to the East may prove highly problematic, especially in the second half of the season). Montreal start the season looking like they did against Ottawa in the playoffs. They will be very bad. But, there will be great entertainment in watching the Michel Therrien post game melt downs (we will see real tears). But the highlight will be hearing Therrien explain that it is Paul MacLean's fault that the Habs did not get any respect in their 5-0 loss to the St Louis Blues.

I think Burke and the Kessel deal look much better now in everyone's eyes now than the day he was fired. The team getting to the playoffs and Kessel looking like a true star in those playoffs turned things around.

The criticism over the Kessel trade has been proven to be premature. Very premature.
- RogerRoeper

I think your trying to change definitions in a way that revises meaning. Most people believe that Kessel has demonstrated he is a superb hockey player. It is okay to like Kessel but still hate the trade.

I think Burke conceded many times that he would not have done the Kessel deal if he had known the Leafs were going to be a draft lottery team the following year.

There may be some truth that the Kessel trade looks better now than it did after year 1 or year 2 or year 3 but have you forgotten how brutal and painful each of those years were? Do you forget the anguish of the Tyler vs Tyler draft where everyone was so keen to ridicule the Leafs? Would you like to go back and ever do that again?

There is no doubt the guys who practice the dark arts of hockey analytics say the Leaf key numbers are not looking very good for next season. In particular, they believe that MacArthur and Grabovski were huge losses and Clarkson simply does not compute well in hockey analytics.

But hockey is played on the ice, not on a calculator. Intangibles like toughness and character cannot be computed in the same way as possession and shot differentials. In terms of the Atlantic Division I believe the Leafs are stronger than Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo and both Florida teams. I think Boston may be a tired team and like most other Stanley Cup finalists from past years they will be very slow coming out of the gate. I believe the Senators are the most talented team in the Atlantic, they are also the youngest in the NHL and what is not often discussed they are a huge, very physical team.

But the Leafs always match up well with the Sens. And, the Sens are very young and Karlsson and Spezza have to demonstrate they are healed from injury and we also need to see if Bobby Ryan fits into the Sens possession style game.

I can see the Leafs and Senators fighting all season for the Atlantic Division lead. I think Boston and Detroit fight for the third spot with Boston securing it down the stretch (Detroit is too old, and the law of unintended consequences suggests the move to the East may prove highly problematic, especially in the second half of the season). Montreal start the season looking like they did against Ottawa in the playoffs. They will be very bad. But, there will be great entertainment in watching the Michel Therrien post game melt downs (we will see real tears). But the highlight will be hearing Therrien explain that it is Paul MacLean's fault that the Habs did not get any respect in their 5-0 loss to the St Louis Blues.
- spatso

Considering it's incredibly flawed who cares?? Totally unproven, terribly flawed and unreliable.

They were wrong last year.

There is no doubt the guys who practice the dark arts of hockey analytics say the Leaf key numbers are not looking very good for next season. In particular, they believe that MacArthur and Grabovski were huge losses and Clarkson simply does not compute well in hockey analytics.

But hockey is played on the ice, not on a calculator. Intangibles like toughness and character cannot be computed in the same way as possession and shot differentials. In terms of the Atlantic Division I believe the Leafs are stronger than Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo and both Florida teams. I think Boston may be a tired team and like most other Stanley Cup finalists from past years they will be very slow coming out of the gate. I believe the Senators are the most talented team in the Atlantic, they are also the youngest in the NHL and what is not often discussed they are a huge, very physical team.

But the Leafs always match up well with the Sens. And, the Sens are very young and Karlsson and Spezza have to demonstrate they are healed from injury and we also need to see if Bobby Ryan fits into the Sens possession style game.

I can see the Leafs and Senators fighting all season for the Atlantic Division lead. I think Boston and Detroit fight for the third spot with Boston securing it down the stretch (Detroit is too old, and the law of unintended consequences suggests the move to the East may prove highly problematic, especially in the second half of the season). Montreal start the season looking like they did against Ottawa in the playoffs. They will be very bad. But, there will be great entertainment in watching the Michel Therrien post game melt downs (we will see real tears). But the highlight will be hearing Therrien explain that it is Paul MacLean's fault that the Habs did not get any respect in their 5-0 loss to the St Louis Blues.
- spatso

Possession isn't being computed.... their in lies the flaw (part of it) of corsi and the possession stats.

I think your trying to change definitions in a way that revises meaning. Most people believe that Kessel has demonstrated he is a superb hockey player. It is okay to like Kessel but still hate the trade.

I think Burke conceded many times that he would not have done the Kessel deal if he had known the Leafs were going to be a draft lottery team the following year.

There may be some truth that the Kessel trade looks better now than it did after year 1 or year 2 or year 3 but have you forgotten how brutal and painful each of those years were? Do you forget the anguish of the Tyler vs Tyler draft where everyone was so keen to ridicule the Leafs? Would you like to go back and ever do that again?
- spatso

Wrong. He's said repeatedly he'd do it again.

I think your trying to change definitions in a way that revises meaning. Most people believe that Kessel has demonstrated he is a superb hockey player. It is okay to like Kessel but still hate the trade.

I think Burke conceded many times that he would not have done the Kessel deal if he had known the Leafs were going to be a draft lottery team the following year.

There may be some truth that the Kessel trade looks better now than it did after year 1 or year 2 or year 3 but have you forgotten how brutal and painful each of those years were? Do you forget the anguish of the Tyler vs Tyler draft where everyone was so keen to ridicule the Leafs? Would you like to go back and ever do that again?
- spatso

What do they say about who wins the trade??? The team that got the best play......... without question Kessel is. It's not even close.

People thought that both players were going to turn out better than Kessel, it's not looking good for that coming to fruition.

"But, let's be honest. Except for the strategic error of dealing for Kessel (nobody disputes Kessel is a great player) Burke did a first class job. Yet, as you suggest, he raised expectations and sometimes did not think when reporters put a microphone in front of him.

I believe he will be back in the NHL sooner than many expect.

First, he has to be a serious contender to replace Sather when he retires.

Second, if the Flyers stumble out of the gate, Snyder will go outside the Flyer culture (Hextall is not ready). Burke and Snyder is a match made in heaven.

Third, my long shot, a rehabilitated Burke is a natural fit in Ottawa to replace a retiring Bryan Murray"

Wow! Little did I think my projection on Burke getting back on top would come so soon. Did not think Calgary. But it makes great sense.

http://www.ottawasun.com/...ly-talking-to-brian-burke

Considering it's incredibly flawed who cares?? Totally unproven, terribly flawed and unreliable.

They were wrong last year.
- burn

Obviously a lot of people do care. They are now using advanced analytics on HNIC and TSN to discuss projected performance of teams and individual players.

I am not a fan but more and more people are jumping into the analytics game.

Possession isn't being computed.... their in lies the flaw (part of it) of corsi and the possession stats.
- burn

If I could make a small suggestion. You might want to use the bold feature less when you are responding. If I read what you wrote it appears like your agreeing with what I said about the weakness of analytics. But, if I read what your saying just in the context of the emboldened portion of the text it is highly confusing.

I agree with your statement but I am not sure of the meaning as I don't understand how it fits with what I said.

If I could make a small suggestion. You might want to use the bold feature less when you are responding. If I read what you wrote it appears like your agreeing with what I said about the weakness of analytics. But, if I read what your saying just in the context of the emboldened portion of the text it is highly confusing.

I agree with your statement but I am not sure of the meaning as I don't understand how it fits with what I said.
- spatso

It's not my fault you cannot understand simple English.

I bolded your use of possession, and said that posession isn't being computed by corsi (even though that's what they say they do) and their in Lies the flaw of such analytics.

Can't get simpler than that.

It's not my fault you cannot understand simple English.

I bolded your use of possession, and said that posession isn't being computed by corsi (even though that's what they say they do) and their in Lies the flaw of such analytics.

Can't get simpler than that.
- burn

But possession is a metric that is computed. Is your issue more about how to offset possession and Corsi? I am not a big fan of advanced analytics. I don't really grasp your interpretation. Are you saying if possession was factored into Corsi the resulting index would have more meaning?

It seems to me the only statistic that really matter is the final score. Shots for and against give you the best indication of who carried the play and who likely had better goaltending.

I don't dispute that other calculations might be really insightful in terms of how the game is played on the margins but for the most part those statistics will mirror the final score, shots for and against, goaltending quality.

Sounds like some kind of deal is done and Burke is headed to Calgary. He will do a good job!

But possession is a metric that is computed. Is your issue more about how to offset possession and Corsi? I am not a big fan of advanced analytics. I don't really grasp your interpretation. Are you saying if possession was factored into Corsi the resulting index would have more meaning?

It seems to me the only statistic that really matter is the final score. Shots for and against give you the best indication of who carried the play and who likely had better goaltending.

I don't dispute that other calculations might be really insightful in terms of how the game is played on the margins but for the most part those statistics will mirror the final score, shots for and against, goaltending quality.
- spatso

Flawed and incorrect.

Corsi is a measure of possession, and its flawed.

But possession is a metric that is computed. Is your issue more about how to offset possession and Corsi? I am not a big fan of advanced analytics. I don't really grasp your interpretation. Are you saying if possession was factored into Corsi the resulting index would have more meaning?

It seems to me the only statistic that really matter is the final score. Shots for and against give you the best indication of who carried the play and who likely had better goaltending.

I don't dispute that other calculations might be really insightful in terms of how the game is played on the margins but for the most part those statistics will mirror the final score, shots for and against, goaltending quality.
- spatso

This is what corsi says and it's not accurate. That's the point. It's terribly flawed from start to finish.

Flawed and incorrect.

Corsi is a measure of possession, and its flawed.
- burn

not exactly

not exactly
- senstroll

How so?

I think your trying to change definitions in a way that revises meaning. Most people believe that Kessel has demonstrated he is a superb hockey player. It is okay to like Kessel but still hate the trade.

I think Burke conceded many times that he would not have done the Kessel deal if he had known the Leafs were going to be a draft lottery team the following year.

There may be some truth that the Kessel trade looks better now than it did after year 1 or year 2 or year 3 but have you forgotten how brutal and painful each of those years were? Do you forget the anguish of the Tyler vs Tyler draft where everyone was so keen to ridicule the Leafs? Would you like to go back and ever do that again?
- spatso

This has never happened. Not once.

And who cares who ridiculed the Leafs? Most were wrong. Geeze, I had people tell me it's the worst trade ever because Jared Knight alone would be better than Kessel. People embarrassed themselves.

This has never happened. Not once.

And who cares who ridiculed the Leafs? Most were wrong. Geeze, I had people tell me it's the worst trade ever because Jared Knight alone would be better than Kessel. People embarrassed themselves.
- RogerRoeper

Your just plain wrong. On multiple occasions Burke has conceded he did not expect to be giving up a 2nd overall and a 9th overall.

NBC Sports is just one of many that have documented some of Burke's more sanguine reflections on the matter. Read it carefully. He says he would do the trade again but he also clearly concedes that Boston and Chiarelli won the trade.

You seem to have put yourself in the position of arguing something in support of Burke that he, himself, has not believed for a long time. I think it is time for you to let it go.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcs...on-the-phil-kessel-trade/

Your just plain wrong. On multiple occasions Burke has conceded he did not expect to be giving up a 2nd overall and a 9th overall.

NBC Sports is just one of many that have documented some of Burke's more sanguine reflections on the matter. Read it carefully. He says he would do the trade again but he also clearly concedes that Boston and Chiarelli won the trade.

You seem to have put yourself in the position of arguing something in support of Burke that he, himself, has not believed for a long time. I think it is time for you to let it go.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcs...on-the-phil-kessel-trade/
- spatso

You're wrong.

Burke has said multiple times that he'd still do the deal.

Your just plain wrong. On multiple occasions Burke has conceded he did not expect to be giving up a 2nd overall and a 9th overall.

NBC Sports is just one of many that have documented some of Burke's more sanguine reflections on the matter. Read it carefully. He says he would do the trade again but he also clearly concedes that Boston and Chiarelli won the trade.

You seem to have put yourself in the position of arguing something in support of Burke that he, himself, has not believed for a long time. I think it is time for you to let it go.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcs...on-the-phil-kessel-trade/
- spatso

You're link doesn't prove what you are saying. It's utterly false.