Eklund: Bill Meltzer: Draft Data -- Risk/Reward of Picking Defensemen in 1st Round

Dearth?

Nowadays, there is often a death of quality blueliners available on the UFA market.

Dearth?
- wolfhounds

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dearth

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dearth
- bmeltzer

I think his point is you have a typo - death not dearth.

Then again, maybe having a dearth of dmen is death in the NHL these days

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dearth
- bmeltzer

Sorry, I wasn't clear...you wrote 'death' instead of 'dearth'. Also, good use of an under-appreciated word.

I do love the fact that you can strike gold in any round with defenseman, but it has to drive GMs and scouts crazy.

Quite a few current (and former) Flyers on that first round list. Mesz, how far you've fallen.

The one thing i have never understood about drafting defensemen in the first round is why Draft defensive defensemen that high? There is no real "premium" for defensive defensemen. They are traded for 2nd rounders at the trade deadline all the time.

Take Luke Schenn for example a 6th overall pick who was never projected to be more than a good defensive defenseman. What was there in his game that suggested that he'd ever be worth more than a 2nd round pick at the TDL at some time in the future?

The kid may live up to his potential someday but even if he does he'll never be worth a mid to high first round pick from someone.

I think his point is you have a typo - death not dearth.

Then again, maybe having a dearth of dmen is death in the NHL these days
- TheGreat28

Indeed it is

Personally, I wouldn't use a lottery pick on a defenseman when you can get a gem later in the draft. Most of the forwards picked in the top 5 become stars and some win cups, whereas you can get that "elite" defenseman later.

- There were 35 current defensemen picked higher than Karlsson throughout the years.
- 61 current defensemen picked higher than Subban
- 67 picked higher than Weber
- 69 picked higher than Keith
- 76 picked higher than Lidstrom
- 77 picked higher than Chara
- 78 picked higher than Letang
- 91 picked higher than Yandle

Amazing

Eklund: Bill Meltzer: Draft Data -- Risk/Reward of Picking Defensemen in 1st Round
- Eklund

Good blog.

Its clear why teams are so gun shy when it comes to drafting dmen high. Your chances of finding that franchise guy are much higher in round 1 and 2. But in hindsight you can also go through that list and say that a good 2/3 of those players drafted in the first round were picked too high and there were better prospects on the board at that time.

Teams don't let dmen go these days unless there is a reason and it shows the importance of drafting well these days.

I've often wondered Bill with all the scouts out there these days if anyone has attempted any sort of analysis of what "types" of players end up turning into impact dmen and identifying those traits that they had early on, and vice versa, what did scouts see in some of these guys that didn't necessarily translate at the higher levels?

Bill,

Nice read. Have to say though I disagree with a few things. Of course, it is very subjective. But overall I think, if two draft prospects are roughly rated the same, you pick for organizational need. Reaches are what kill teams long-term future but loading a team with all of your eggs in one basket isn't smart either.

Yes, assets can be traded, but just like the NFL has a draft chart that tells teams what they need to give up in order to move up in the draft, I think there is an unwritten hierarchy of positional value in the NHL. Something like:

1. Top-line (all-star) offensive-minded defenseman
2. Top-line (all-star) two-way defenseman
3. Top-line (all-star) center with both size and top 10 offensive skill
4. Top-line (all-start) winger with size and top 10 offensive skill

I just threw out the above and it's obviously not complete, but the point is that today offensive Dmen trump centers, centers trump wingers, wingers trump shut down D, etc.

So while it seems like a great idea to have G, B Schenn, Vinnie, Couts and Laughton in the system (not to mention Cousins), in order to get a Seth Jones, or Dougie Hamilton or OEL etc only G would bring in one straight up, and a package deal not including G would be substantial.

The one thing i have never understood about drafting defensemen in the first round is why Draft defensive defensemen that high? There is no real "premium" for defensive defensemen. They are traded for 2nd rounders at the trade deadline all the time.

Take Luke Schenn for example a 6th overall pick who was never projected to be more than a good defensive defenseman. What was there in his game that suggested that he'd ever be worth more than a 2nd round pick at the TDL at some time in the future?

The kid may live up to his potential someday but even if he does he'll never be worth a mid to high first round pick from someone.
- Flyers_01

Because, as some Flyers teams have shown us over the years, scoring five goals is great--unless the team also gives up six.

Also--


He was a defensive defenseman. He was taken 5th overall in 1982.

Personally, I wouldn't use a lottery pick on a defenseman when you can get a gem later in the draft. Most of the forwards picked in the top 5 become stars and some win cups, whereas you can get that "elite" defenseman later.

- There were 35 current defensemen picked higher than Karlsson throughout the years.
- 61 current defensemen picked higher than Subban
- 67 picked higher than Weber
- 69 picked higher than Keith
- 76 picked higher than Lidstrom
- 77 picked higher than Chara
- 78 picked higher than Letang
- 91 picked higher than Yandle

Amazing
- HabsRUs

I think there is a hole in your logic - kind of like not saving any money because you could win the lottery. Or I should double down on a 16 because the last time I hada 16 I got a five, and statistically it could happen again.

You can't look at the exception and make this the rule.

Bill, thinking a little more about your hypothesis, by considering every defenseman playing across every team in the league, you are giving equal weight to the best players on the best teams and the worst players on the worst teams. I tend to think that that could skew the analysis.

What you really want to know is:

1. How do the BEST teams construct their defense, either using record or statistical measures of defense.
2. If you take the top 50% of teams, what is percentage acquired through draft, trade, or ufa.
3. Of those acquired through the draft, what is the breakdown by round.
4. Of the players on these teams under 28 (or whatever number you are comfortable with), what percentage were acquired through the draft.

Frankly, I don't care about the rosters of teams like the Islanders, Blue Jackets and Oilers...I want to know how the Hawks, Kings, and Predators built their rosters when it comes to defense.

Because, as some Flyers teams have shown us over the years, scoring five goals is great--unless the team also gives up six.

Also--


He was a defensive defenseman. He was taken 5th overall in 1982.
- Moose_15

So you pick one player out of the last 30 years to refute his statement??

The one thing i have never understood about drafting defensemen in the first round is why Draft defensive defensemen that high? There is no real "premium" for defensive defensemen. They are traded for 2nd rounders at the trade deadline all the time.

Take Luke Schenn for example a 6th overall pick who was never projected to be more than a good defensive defenseman. What was there in his game that suggested that he'd ever be worth more than a 2nd round pick at the TDL at some time in the future?

The kid may live up to his potential someday but even if he does he'll never be worth a mid to high first round pick from someone.
- Flyers_01

I completely agree!

For the Flyers sake, I hope Samuel Morin develops his offensive game or else that will really be a questionable pick.

Because, as some Flyers teams have shown us over the years, scoring five goals is great--unless the team also gives up six.

Also--


He was a defensive defenseman. He was taken 5th overall in 1982.
- Moose_15

Stevens It was a different NHL then also he finished his career with 908 pts and played 1600+ games which seems like a stretch for any defensive defense man in today NHL with the amount of injuries and what not.

Because, as some Flyers teams have shown us over the years, scoring five goals is great--unless the team also gives up six.

Also--


He was a defensive defenseman. He was taken 5th overall in 1982.
- Moose_15

He did have seasons of over 70 points.....

Because, as some Flyers teams have shown us over the years, scoring five goals is great--unless the team also gives up six.

Also--


He was a defensive defenseman. He was taken 5th overall in 1982.
- Moose_15

He wasn't a defensive d-man. He was a two-way d-man, capable of playing anywhere on the ice.

So you pick one player out of the last 30 years to refute his statement??
- TheGreat28

No, but the logic is that ones drafted higher will have a higher chance of achieving their ceiling.

Because, as some Flyers teams have shown us over the years, scoring five goals is great--unless the team also gives up six.

Also--


He was a defensive defenseman. He was taken 5th overall in 1982.
- Moose_15

Scott Stevens was not a defensive specialist for his whole career, in fact he was an offensive dynamo at first before he went to the Devils and they adopted the trap system

Scott Stevens was not a defensive specialist for his whole career, in fact he was an offensive dynamo at first before he went to the Devils and they adopted the trap system
- TommyDeVito

I also find that most first ballot hall of famers could do more then just one thing. Niedermayer is another example. Guy wasn't just an offensive dynamo he was more then equipped to handle things on the defensive side of the puck and zone.

Because, as some Flyers teams have shown us over the years, scoring five goals is great--unless the team also gives up six.

Also--


He was a defensive defenseman. He was taken 5th overall in 1982.
- Moose_15

Ken Danyko and Scott Neidermeier say hello. Danyko was the most underrate damn of his era. The trap was made for that guy

Eklund: Bill Meltzer: Draft Data -- Risk/Reward of Picking Defensemen in 1st Round
- Eklund

unmentionned: Andrei Markov round 6/162 overall 1998

Are you still made because Weber isn't on your team?

It sounds like the underlying message is, "Patience doesn't pay." So, you want to pick on the Predators. Well, how's that lack of patience working for those Flyers?

Andrei Markov round6/162 overall in 1998. Not mentionned, just sayin.