You can make a stat say anything you want it to say, for the most part! That's part of the problem!

- MJL

true. i know some may not like this answer, but sometimes what is necessary to provide clarity for some stats is.... another stat.

in order to really look and see if that plus minus means much, you need to then look at it in conjunction with things such as offensive zone/defensive zone splits, strength of opposition in opponents, and lastly supplement it with watching the action

Trade for a number 1 Dman before the deadline:

PHI: WEBER
NSH: Lecavalier (NTC) , Read, Morin, Laugton + 1st
(and we retain 2M on Vinny 4.5 caphit)


or

PHI: Voynov
LA: Read, Morin, Gustafsson + 1ST
- Chris48

come again?

I can't speak for everyone, but I feel it has a place. I think it should be used along with a variety of other methods.
- PhillySportsGuy

Again, not one person who is pro-stats on this board has ever said that they should be the only form of analysis and most "stats people" fully agree that they should only be a part of analysis.

However, as soon as somebody makes a post using stats...the stats get attacked as being out of context or faulty.

Trade for a number 1 Dman before the deadline:

PHI: WEBER
NSH: Lecavalier (NTC) , Read, Morin, Laugton + 1st
(and we retain 2M on Vinny 4.5 caphit)


or

PHI: Voynov
LA: Read, Morin, Gustafsson + 1ST
- Chris48

Way too much for Voynov and not enough for Weber.

Again, not one person who is pro-stats one this board has ever said that they should be the only form of analysis and most "stats people" fully agree that they should only be a part of analysis.

However, as soon as somebody makes a post using stats...the stats get attacked as being out of context or faulty.
- Jsaquella

Because hockeys stats have so many variables. People will always be able to play devil's advocate with them.

Way too much for Voynov and not enough for Weber.
- PhillySportsGuy

the substitution of laughton for gus, as well as being saddled with VL, is all that separates voynov from weber?

It's not that tricky. Get a fairly large sample size, and look at several different sets of stats. You can't just use one game where the winning team got out shot & out Corsi'd. You can't just use a three game stretch to truly analyze a player's performance.

In the example given today, Tomahawk used data that was taken from a sample size that included 30 teams each playing between 57 or 60 games. That's not some strange context, it's a large sample size that shows trends over a 5 month period.

Yet the immediate reaction wasn't to respond to what the stats showed, it was yet another attack on their validity.

Far too many people will attack the stats that don't agree with their opinions rather than look at what those stats are telling us. If somebody shows me a stat that disagrees with a point I'm making, I'm going to look at what that stat is saying, rather than immediately call the stat faulty.
- Jsaquella

Not one single poster stated that the chart that Tomahawk posted wasn't valid. All that was said is that Corsi or Fenwick isn't going to determine if the Flyers make the playoffs or not. And I responded by posting the CorsiFor and FenwickFor numbers of recent games as an example. And I think it's safe to say that since overall for the Season the Flyers are at 48.9% CorsiFor and 47.7 FenwickFor, that the Flyers aren't a great team in either category, and that hasn't stopped them from being in a playoff spot to this point.
But at the same time, I don't think that anyone doubts that if the Flyers would do a better job in both metrics, they'd stand a better shot at staying in that position. But it wouldn't be a guarantee of anything. That's all anyone has said.


Stating that the Flyers Corsi or Fenwic numbers is going to be a factor in making the playoffs is one thing. Stating that it's going to be very difficult because of Corsi and Fenwick to make the playoffs, is another thing.

Because hockeys stats have so many variables. People will always be able to play devil's advocate with them.
- PhillySportsGuy

Again, rather than looking at what the stats used tell us, people resort to making criticisms against the stats themselves, or point to context, without taking a second to actually look at that context.

There are variables, but rather than look into those variable, someone with a burning need to be right will simply attack the numbers and ignore the trends they show.

Again, not one person who is pro-stats on this board has ever said that they should be the only form of analysis and most "stats people" fully agree that they should only be a part of analysis.

However, as soon as somebody makes a post using stats...the stats get attacked as being out of context or faulty.
- Jsaquella

From my point of view, the stats only get attacked when they are used out of context. That is the holy grail and the fatal flaw of all analytics. But it happens time and time again.

what would you guys objectively value matt read at?

yes i know another blowfest on read from me but i cant stand this back and forth anymore. dont you guys know youre supposed to be my source of procrastination!

Trade for a number 1 Dman before the deadline:

PHI: WEBER
NSH: Lecavalier (NTC) , Read, Morin, Laugton + 1st
(and we retain 2M on Vinny 4.5 caphit)


or

PHI: Voynov
LA: Read, Morin, Gustafsson + 1ST
- Chris48

The first deal falls about 1.5M short of working Cap wise.

The first deal falls about 1.5M short of working Cap wise.
- MJL

the fact thats the issue you find with it makes me chortle

the fact thats the issue you find with it makes me chortle
- stayinthefnnet

I'm a Cap guy always have been. Pull back Laughton and I might make it.

I'm a Cap guy always have been. Pull back Laughton and I might make it.
- MJL

really? i think VL needs to be replaced with a legitimate front line young NHL player.

From my point of view, the stats only get attacked when they are used out of context. That is the holy grail and the fatal flaw of all analytics. But it happens time and time again.
- MJL

A guy posts a table that covers trends over 2/3rd of a season and you come back with a one game example...and you're going to accuse others of using stats out of context.

Prime example of being tiresome. The only context in which you seem willing to accept stats is when they agree with your opinion. When somebody has a differing opinion, you attack the numbers, or offer a completely out of context stat in return.

It's really sort of sad. You make demands of others that you're not willing to meet yourself, asking for data to prove a point and rarely offering any of your own outside of CBA topics, or when you do, you are far more guilty of abuse of context than the person you are attacking.

Personally, I find you to be tiresome and a bore, one that always needs to win the argument, even if it's simply a case of having more willingness to argue. So please take no offense when I simply ignore you in the future.

I give you credit, but you'd have better luck moving an 18 wheeler by tying it to a 3 year old's tricycle than getting some of these people to admit they could be wrong or that statistical analysis is something more than voodoo or horsepoop. It's obvious you're not watching the games and just throwing numbers out there.

But hey, the last four teams to win the Stanley Cup admit they use analytics, and what do they know compared to a bunch of folks avoiding their jobs on a hockey website?
- Jsaquella

Is that what they are saying? I will respectfully disagree with this characterization of the discussion.

the fact thats the issue you find with it makes me chortle
- stayinthefnnet

Any proposal for weber will need to include Couturier and/or B Schenn. They won't trade him for late first rounders and top 9 forwards and top 4 defenseman. They will want at least one impact prospect with huge upside.

A guy posts a table that covers trends over 2/3rd of a season and you come back with a one game example...and you're going to accuse others of using stats out of context.

Prime example of being tiresome. The only context in which you seem willing to accept stats is when they agree with your opinion. When somebody has a differing opinion, you attack the numbers, or offer a completely out of context stat in return.

It's really sort of sad. You make demands of others that you're not willing to meet yourself, asking for data to prove a point and rarely offering any of your own outside of CBA topics, or when you do, you are far more guilty of abuse of context than the person you are attacking.

Personally, I find you to be tiresome and a bore, one that always needs to win the argument, even if it's simply a case of having more willingness to argue. So please take no offense when I simply ignore you in the future.
- Jsaquella

WHo is arguing that puck possession isn't a key to success in the NHL?

Any proposal for weber will need to include Couturier and/or B Schenn. They won't trade him for late first rounders and top 9 forwards and top 4 defenseman. They will want at least one impact prospect with huge upside.
- PhillySportsGuy

exactly. how a trade for weber somehow forgot to include either coots, schenn, voracek, or simmonds. lord. the VL addition is closer to being a burden to take back rather than a chip of value.

Okay now before this gets out of hand and an all out fight. Walk away.

Okay not before this gets out of hand and an all out fight. Walk away.
- ob18

Thank you. Was about to start flagging posts.

Is that what they are saying? I will respectfully disagree with this characterization of the discussion.
- MBFlyerfan

It's an exaggeration, but so is the non stop complaining about context and failings of stats every single time somebody uses them to serve as an example or to better define an opinion.

exactly. how a trade for weber somehow forgot to include either coots, schenn, voracek, or simmonds. lord. the VL addition is a burden to take back rather than a chip of value.
- stayinthefnnet

FTFY

It's an exaggeration, but so is the non stop complaining about context and failings of stats every single time somebody uses them to serve as an example or to better define an opinion.
- Jsaquella

I feel like you're complaining about one individual rather than several of us.

FTFY
- PhillySportsGuy

yeah. i mean if were just throwing out ideas, ill take jordan eberle from the oil for despres, and matt read from you guys for a pair of second rounders. (frank). they dont have any you say?