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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Richards and Carter Revisited, Recalling Shero "Trade"
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PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 2 @ 1:57 PM ET
They can definitely end up (purposely/inadvertently) introducing some wicked biases into the lottery results.

Like the ad hoc rules for 2005... teams that didn't make the PO's or picked 1st-overall the previous three seasons were given extra balls in the lotto machine. If the Pens hadn't lost the OV lottery the previous summer, and/or the criteria had been expanded beyond the last 3 seasons, they could have conceivably ended up with just 1 ball vs 3. I'm sure they examined multiple scenarios and their resulting odds before settling on one -- I'm sure they weren't strangers to the fact that the Pens and Rangers were going to end up in the small group with the biggest odds under their scenario of choice.

- Tomahawk


But they didn't do anything behind the scenes secretly. I still don't think the nhl tried to help Pitt and NY specifically. I think they were just trying to balance the league like they always have since the lockout
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 2 @ 1:58 PM ET
But see, if NYI spits the bit this year, it's gonna be hard for him to miss Buffalo. Doesn't mean it can't be done, but man, the math is definitely in their favor.
- AllInForFlyers


I don't know exactly how it works, but unless both Buffalo and NYI finish 2nd/3rd worst, I think the worst team still has the odds.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 2 @ 1:58 PM ET
But see, if NYI spits the bit this year, it's gonna be hard for him to miss Buffalo. Doesn't mean it can't be done, but man, the math is definitely in their favor.

Edmonton looks like they could be ugly, too

- AllInForFlyers

NYI are moving to Brooklyn you say. hmmmm.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 2 @ 2:00 PM ET
TSN doing their Flyers "Off-Season Game Plan" today. Feel free to rip apart:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=453780
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 2 @ 2:00 PM ET
Exactly

Isles fans ripped the guy because he wasn't a #1 dman, even though they kept trying to use him as one. Flyers fans give Coburn the same crap. Expecting him to be a dominant #1 guy is just foolish. OTOH he is a mobile, solid top pair guy with a bit of skill and he will get physical now and then as well. You may not like him, but there is not a team in the NHL that wouldn't be thrilled to have him in their top 4 and most would have him on their top pair.

That's why I laugh when I hear people whine "but what if Morin turns out to be just a bigger, meaner version of Coburn?" Good lord folks, if Morin can be a bigger meaner version of Coburn, you just found your #1 shutdown/PK guy for the next decade and change!

- BiggE


Yeah. I think Amac was overpaid, but he's not as bad as the general Corsi numbers would indicate. I just don't want the Flyers to think he can play on the top pair. He needs to be sheltered a bit and not overused
Steelmanpa
Joined: 08.31.2008

Jun 2 @ 2:00 PM ET
They can definitely end up (purposely/inadvertently) introducing some wicked biases into the lottery results.

Like the ad hoc rules for 2005... teams that didn't make the PO's or picked 1st-overall the previous three seasons were given extra balls in the lotto machine. If the Pens hadn't lost the OV lottery the previous summer, and/or the criteria had been expanded beyond the last 3 seasons, they could have conceivably ended up with just 1 ball vs 3. I'm sure they examined multiple scenarios and their resulting odds before settling on one -- I'm sure they weren't strangers to the fact that the Pens and Rangers were going to end up in the small group with the biggest odds under their scenario of choice.

- Tomahawk

It is done in private and the results are then announced, correctl?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 2 @ 2:02 PM ET
Just like the Flyers got Leino for "nothing." It wasn't truly nothing, but OKT + a 5th is almost nothing. Sorry if this is what sparked the Ville talk.

There's other examples, the most outrageous being the Hawks getting Patrick Sharp for nothing.

- jmatchett383


Pot stirrer
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 2 @ 2:03 PM ET
Let's see if McDavid ends up in Buffalo or Edmonton.
- mayorofangrytown


He'll end up in Vancouver
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 2 @ 2:04 PM ET
NYI are moving to Brooklyn you say. hmmmm.
- mayorofangrytown


Absolutely, but they gave the pick to Buffalo -- jmatchett's right in that the worst team has the best odds, but right now, it's tricky to see how McDavid dodges Buffalo and Edmonton, if they're both brutal, and still avoid Florida and a Nashville, too
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 2 @ 2:04 PM ET
TSN doing their Flyers "Off-Season Game Plan" today. Feel free to rip apart:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=453780

- jmatchett383


Not too far off.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 2 @ 2:04 PM ET
NYI are moving to Brooklyn you say. hmmmm.
- mayorofangrytown


Unless something crazy happens, the Islanders have a 0% chance of getting McDavid
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 2 @ 2:05 PM ET
He'll end up in Vancouver
- PhillySportsGuy



You think they're going to be intentionally bad, or just regular bad with a Kesler move?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 2 @ 2:06 PM ET
TSN doing their Flyers "Off-Season Game Plan" today. Feel free to rip apart:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=453780

- jmatchett383



Not a single mention of trading for Shea Weber, Bobby Ryab or needing Ryan Miller... that Cullen ain't so bad.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 2 @ 2:07 PM ET
Unless something crazy happens, the Islanders have a 0% chance of getting McDavid
- PhillySportsGuy

Something crazy you say... Well let us all pay attention shall we?
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 2 @ 2:08 PM ET
Not a single mention of trading for Shea Weber, Bobby Ryab or needing Ryan Miller... that Cullen ain't so bad.
- Tomahawk


Ha! I don't love his Power Polls, but the offseason tracker gets stronger each year.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 2 @ 2:08 PM ET
Not a single mention of trading for Shea Weber, Bobby Ryab or needing Ryan Miller... that Cullen ain't so bad.
- Tomahawk


He did have B Schenn resigning at $1.5M, though. And eating $2.25M of Vinny, which seems high.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 2 @ 2:10 PM ET
Ha! I don't love his Power Polls, but the offseason tracker gets stronger each year.
- AllInForFlyers


I think his power polls are at least based on some statistical measure, as opposed to most where they group teams in groups of 5 and use a dart board.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 2 @ 2:10 PM ET
But they didn't do anything behind the scenes secretly. I still don't think the nhl tried to help Pitt and NY specifically. I think they were just trying to balance the league like they always have since the lockout
- PhillySportsGuy



I don't buy into the part of the conspiracy that has Bettman hand-picking the ping pong balls out of the machine... but I do believe that the financial health of the league, specific franchise considerations and potential growth were probably factored into the equation in 2005, in addition to good old fashioned parity concerns.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 2 @ 2:10 PM ET
I find it almost beyond the realm of belief to think that owners such as Ed Snider, James Dolan, Geoff Molson, etc would allow the league to rig the draft in favor of certain teams.

I doubt any threat from the NHL would silence them. Ed Snider, with the backing of Comcast/NBC is more powerful than the NHL if he wants to be. And add in those other big time owners...the NHL wouldn't stand a chance.

The only reason those owners toe any line is because they wish to.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 2 @ 2:12 PM ET
He did have B Schenn resigning at $1.5M, though. And eating $2.25M of Vinny, which seems high.
- jmatchett383



Didn't even realize there was a capgeek roster attached... yeah, Handzus and $1.5M for Schenn is curious.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 2 @ 2:12 PM ET
You think they're going to be intentionally bad, or just regular bad with a Kesler move?
- AllInForFlyers


Bad enough to miss the playoffs but good enough to rig the lottery
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 2 @ 2:13 PM ET
Yeah. I think Amac was overpaid, but he's not as bad as the general Corsi numbers would indicate. I just don't want the Flyers to think he can play on the top pair. He needs to be sheltered a bit and not overused
- PhillySportsGuy



He's been steadily sub-par at driving play, irrespective of teammates, team, competition, usage and tactics. The way he looked in the Rangers series was very disconcerting.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 2 @ 2:16 PM ET
I think his power polls are at least based on some statistical measure, as opposed to most where they group teams in groups of 5 and use a dart board.
- jmatchett383


They are, but for some reason, it feels like the injury factor might be a little loose at times. Granted, i don't see his math, but there are times when it gets a little funky when the same caliber of players are hurt but the rankings don't appear to reflect that with some wide variances, at times
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jun 2 @ 2:16 PM ET
Not a single mention of trading for Shea Weber, Bobby Ryab or needing Ryan Miller... that Cullen ain't so bad.
- Tomahawk


but he still thinks mason is a question. i suppose that's fair...but not really. he was great after the acquisition in 2013, and had a very good season this year, including the playoffs.

he's not a 2nd year player, and the flyers have a good team in front of him, despite the holes and team needs.

shut up, scott cullen.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 2 @ 2:18 PM ET
He's been steadily sub-par at driving play, irrespective of teammates, team, competition, usage and tactics. The way he looked in the Rangers series was very disconcerting.
- Tomahawk


Just gotta protect him, play him with Schenn and hope for,the best...gotta hope Schenn takes a step forward. That just needs to happen.
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