Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Improving on Last Season's Benchmarks, Quick Hits

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Improving on Last Season's Benchmarks, Quick Hits
- bmeltzer

Happy Birthday, Bill. Thanks for all your work. Blogging every day and always great quality, you are a treat for Flyers fans. Hope you have a good one

Bill,

Looking to take my daughter to her first taste of in-person hockey action by heading down to rookie camp this weekend. Do you know what the Saturday/Sunday schedule looks like?

Happy Birthday, Bill. Thanks for all your work. Blogging every day and always great quality, you are a treat for Flyers fans. Hope you have a good one
- Jsaquella

Thank you, JS. I appreciate it!

First post in god knows when. Happy birthday Bill!

I think it's pretty evident that Hextall does not utilize analytics to make roster moves (see: Ryan White, Rinaldo extension). I think his thinking is flawed though. If you're going to use them to analyze players and the team within a game, then it would be reasonable to assume that, over the course of the season, you'll see certain players are hurting the team and others who are helping. If you used the same analysis on other teams, you'd see the same trend for their players. After all this, why would you not want to create a roster with the most valuable guys found from doing in-game statistical analysis?

Basically what I'm saying is that 1) his use of analytics will become a major factor in personnel decisions or 2) if it doesn't, he's missing using the tool.

Just my 2 cents.

Bill,

Looking to take my daughter to her first taste of in-person hockey action by heading down to rookie camp this weekend. Do you know what the Saturday/Sunday schedule looks like?
- jmatchett383

Will post schedule when I get it. I am returning to Philly from Texas on Saturday, so I won't get to cover rookie camp til Sunday.

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Improving on Last Season's Benchmarks, Quick Hits
- bmeltzer

Happy birthday Bill!!

Keep up the great work, your blogs are the highlight of my mornings!!

Happy Birthday, Bill. Thanks for all your work. Blogging every day and always great quality, you are a treat for Flyers fans. Hope you have a good one
- Jsaquella

Ditto.

First post in god knows when. Happy birthday Bill!

I think it's pretty evident that Hextall does not utilize analytics to make roster moves (see: Ryan White, Rinaldo extension). I think his thinking is flawed though. If you're going to use them to analyze players and the team within a game, then it would be reasonable to assume that, over the course of the season, you'll see certain players are hurting the team and others who are helping. If you used the same analysis on other teams, you'd see the same trend for their players. After all this, why would you not want to create a roster with the most valuable guys found from doing in-game statistical analysis?

Basically what I'm saying is that 1) his use of analytics will become a major factor in personnel decisions or 2) if it doesn't, he's missing using the tool.

Just my 2 cents.
- NickTheKid87

If only they'd had advanced stats in the 70's, we'd all know whether or not Bobby Orr, Bobby Clarke, Ken Dryden, Guy LaFleur, Mike Bossy, Phil Esposito, and Bernie Parent were players who helped or hurt their teams.

Will post schedule when I get it. I am returning to Philly from Texas on Saturday, so I won't get to cover rookie camp til Sunday.
- bmeltzer

Thanks. I tried looking on the Flyers' site, but all they had was the rookie camp invite list and info about the Caps game. Any info you can pass along would be appreciated.

And sorry, happy birthday!

If only they'd had advanced stats in the 70's, we'd all know whether or not Bobby Orr, Bobby Clarke, Ken Dryden, Guy LaFleur, Mike Bossy, Phil Esposito, and Bernie Parent were players who helped or hurt their teams.
- jmatchett383

We know they helped. I'm talking about the marginal guys like Rinaldo, White, Grossmann, etc. It's obvious that Giroux is going to make the team better. It also doesn't take statistics to see that Rosehill is god awful. A good supporting cast is what analytics could help build.

If only they'd had advanced stats in the 70's, we'd all know whether or not Bobby Orr, Bobby Clarke, Ken Dryden, Guy LaFleur, Mike Bossy, Phil Esposito, and Bernie Parent were players who helped or hurt their teams.
- jmatchett383

Yeah that Orr fella, great wheels and scored a ton of points, but his corsi was crap! Trade him for Moose Dupont immediately!!

We know they helped. I'm talking about the marginal guys like Rinaldo, White, Grossmann, etc. It's obvious that Giroux is going to make the team better. It also doesn't take statistics to see that Rosehill is god awful. A good supporting cast is what analytics could help build.
- NickTheKid87

The 2 guys you mentioned were Rinaldo and White, who are on a the same level, more or less, with Rosehill.

Must be reacting to AMac's corsi numbers.

Yeah that Orr fella, great wheels and scored a ton of points, but his corsi was crap! Trade him for Moose Dupont immediately!!
- BiggE

Well, +/- is overrated, and he takes too many offensive chances. He's a complete liability.

We know they helped. I'm talking about the marginal guys like Rinaldo, White, Grossmann, etc. It's obvious that Giroux is going to make the team better. It also doesn't take statistics to see that Rosehill is god awful. A good supporting cast is what analytics could help build.
- NickTheKid87

Rosehill is a strong candidate to be waived, unless they carry 14 forwards and even then he may be gone. White was signed to a 2-way deal that pays the league minimum at the NHL level, that would indicate they see him as the 13th forward at best.

Finally, Rinaldo's extension is below 900k so if his game does not reach the level they want it to, he will likely be traded or waived.

I think the trade of Hartnell for Umberger sends a much bigger message to the club than does signing White or extending Rinaldo.

Well, +/- is overrated, and he takes too many offensive chances. He's a complete liability.
- jmatchett383

Yeah, he's almost as bad as that Clarke kid. All he does is work hard, win faceoffs, kill penalties and pile up assists. He needs to shoot more and work on his possession numbers!

Yeah, he's almost as bad as that Clarke kid. All he does is work hard, win faceoffs, kill penalties and pile up assists. He needs to shoot more and work on his possession numbers!
- BiggE

Agreed. He's more or less a dime a dozen 4th liner with some skill. We need to trade him for a one-dimensional sniper, otherwise we'll be wasting Orest Kindrachuk's best years.

The 2 guys you mentioned were Rinaldo and White, who are on a the same level, more or less, with Rosehill.
- jmatchett383

Yet they'll get into way more games and get more minutes (at least Rinaldo will). It's not just limited to those guys either; plenty of players are better or worse than they may seem for one reason or another. Analytics are a tool and should be utilized to create the best possible team along with traditional evaluation methods.

Ill tell ya, all dem fancy numbers and scribbles tell me the Kings are a damned good team.

Rosehill is a strong candidate to be waived, unless they carry 14 forwards and even then he may be gone. White was signed to a 2-way deal that pays the league minimum at the NHL level, that would indicate they see him as the 13th forward at best.

Finally, Rinaldo's extension is below 900k so if his game does not reach the level they want it to, he will likely be traded or waived.

I think the trade of Hartnell for Umberger sends a much bigger message to the club than does signing White or extending Rinaldo.
- BiggE

I agree on the Umberger trade. I think part of that was motivated by analytics as well as finances. I'm not saying only use advanced stats because that would be folly. A big tool box makes it easier to build something strong.

Yet they'll get into way more games and get more minutes (at least Rinaldo will). It's not just limited to those guys either; plenty of players are better or worse than they may seem for one reason or another. Analytics are a tool and should be utilized to create the best possible team along with traditional evaluation methods.
- NickTheKid87

While I disagree to an extent, that's fine if you feel that way. However, the 2 examples you cited are, to me, pretty poor examples. You're talking about about a guy signed to a 2-way deal and a 4th line winger as clear evidence that our GM doesn't use analytics, while ignoring the Hartenll for Umberger trade (which, analytically, is an improvement). I don't think there is strong evidence for or against him using fancy stats.

While I disagree to an extent, that's fine if you feel that way. However, the 2 examples you cited are, to me, pretty poor examples. You're talking about about a guy signed to a 2-way deal and a 4th line winger as clear evidence that our GM doesn't use analytics, while ignoring the Hartenll for Umberger trade (which, analytically, is an improvement). I don't think there is strong evidence for or against him using fancy stats.
- jmatchett383

No, I said he doesn't use analytics for roster moves. Guys like White and Rinaldo are not the kind you want on your team if you are using analytics OR the eyeball test (unless we're talking about 2012-13 Rinaldo). These kinds of player don't fail the eyeball test for everyone though because of subjectivity but the do fail the analytics test every time. I think if he held advanced stats in as high a regard as he seems to say from time to time, he would have let Rinaldo walk after this year and not bothered with White. The Umberger deal is an exception. Other than that he really hasn't made enough moves. In that sense, my declaration may have been a bit premature but the point still stands.

No, I said he doesn't use analytics for roster moves. Guys like White and Rinaldo are not the kind you want on your team if you are using analytics OR the eyeball test (unless we're talking about 2012-13 Rinaldo). These kinds of player don't fail the eyeball test for everyone though because of subjectivity but the do fail the analytics test every time. I think if he held advanced stats in as high a regard as he seems to say from time to time, he would have let Rinaldo walk after this year and not bothered with White. The Umberger deal is an exception. Other than that he really hasn't made enough moves. In that sense, my declaration may have been a bit premature but the point still stands.
- NickTheKid87

Well, the end of your post is kind of my point. He's made 3 moves, really. One points to a better player analytically (Umberger > Hartnell), one points the other way (Rinaldo), and one is a player who will struggle to see NHL time (White). I don't think there's enough of a sample pool to say either he does or does not.

Also, not all roster moves should be driven simply by analytics, otherwise every NHL roster would look more or less the same, and no one would want to touch players like Ryan Suter or Shea Weber because of their negative Corsi Rel. numbers.