Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Garner: FBQ: Giving Credit, Shipping Players, Picking Winners
Author Message
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Nov 8 @ 3:03 PM ET
I have said it many times....is he all that much worse than Josi or Brodin? I would guess he would be just as heralded if he were partnered up with Weber or Suter.
- Jeropotato

This totally could be it.

Seems like josi is playing fantastic hockey. But admittedly I don't see a ton of him to say if it's mostly weber.

As far as Brodin- he's the man.
I've liked him from the start. So polished right off the bat. I don't think he's a far better passer than mm, but he's ridiculously strong positionally and powerful edge to edge. He's so tough to beat.
But when he doesn't play with suter, he gets softer matchups (unlike marincin) and when he is paired with suter, he's got one of the most dependable and quality partners in the game. (Again, unlike mm)

Good post

TheNugeIsHuge
Edmonton Oilers
Location: McJesus, AB
Joined: 01.09.2013

Nov 8 @ 3:06 PM ET
Edmonton sits at a 51.1% CF. Some head scratcher coaching decisions as for deployment but defensive execution and a lack of a vet C seem like the problem to me, not coaching. If Schultz is on your top pair, your simply not going to win many hockey games.

Get Eakins a top pairing and 2 Cs with more than a combined 60 games of experience, then see how he does
Jeropotato
Season Ticket Holder
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 01.03.2013

Nov 8 @ 3:06 PM ET
Update:

It turns out I had to take a massive dump after all. I was fine when I Walked out of Smitty's but by the time I stepped into the Rona next door I had a turtle head poking out.

whipper334
Calgary Flames
Location: The man they call Reveen!!
Joined: 01.06.2010

Nov 8 @ 3:09 PM ET
Update:

It turns out I had to take a massive dump after all. I was fine when I Walked out of Smitty's but by the time I stepped into the Rona next door I had a turtle head poking out.


- Jeropotato

Jeropotato
Season Ticket Holder
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 01.03.2013

Nov 8 @ 3:11 PM ET

- whipper334

What? You don't like Rona?
Dangles13
Edmonton Oilers
Location: MB
Joined: 02.08.2011

Nov 8 @ 3:12 PM ET
Edmonton sits at a 51.1% CF. Some head scratcher coaching decisions as for deployment but defensive execution and a lack of a vet C seem like the problem to me, not coaching. If Schultz is on your top pair, your simply not going to win many hockey games.

Get Eakins a top pairing and 2 Cs with more than a combined 60 games of experience, then see how he does

- TheNugeIsHuge


If there was an actual NHL defensive corp here than I would easily blame Eakins, he doesn't always do the right thing but what can he do?
whipper334
Calgary Flames
Location: The man they call Reveen!!
Joined: 01.06.2010

Nov 8 @ 3:26 PM ET
What? You don't like Rona?
- Jeropotato

Jeropotato
Season Ticket Holder
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 01.03.2013

Nov 8 @ 3:42 PM ET
If there was an actual NHL defensive corp here than I would easily blame Eakins, he doesn't always do the right thing but what can he do?
- Dangles13

Exactly. He's a poop coach.....but he's coaching a poop team so ....
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 8 @ 3:51 PM ET
I couldn't agree more. Petry may be our best defender but he far from being a top pairing defender and that is a recipe for disaster.
- Dangles13

Big difference between top pairing and #1.

He's good enough to play on a top pairing IF we had a real #1
DarthYoda
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Golden, BC
Joined: 04.27.2010

Nov 8 @ 3:59 PM ET
Ummmm.....pretty sure wrestling was fake in the 70's and 80's too....
- Jeropotato

ummmmmm (frank) you potato, I was a wrestler in the 80's I went by the name of The Infamous El Burrito. My closer was the Cheesy Beef and Beaner and I ended many a mans career with that. Don't tell me the broken legs and fractured vertebrae I gave to other wrestlers and the broken pelvises I gave to the adoring female groupies, called Hot Tamales, weren't real man.....the nightmares I have tell me they were.......
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Nov 8 @ 4:01 PM ET
I think everyone agree that the special teams have suffered since (and perhaps because of) Eakins. Maybe some of the Eakins haters can tell me what has changed under him.

I'm a hockey fan, but not so much a hockey analyst.
OilHorse
Edmonton Oilers
Location: EKolb..ChiRef..Dnozzlesupreme, BC
Joined: 10.12.2010

Nov 8 @ 4:04 PM ET
ummmmmm (frank) you potato, I was a wrestler in the 80's I went by the name of The Infamous El Burrito. My closer was the Cheesy Beef and Beaner and I ended many a mans career with that. Don't tell me the broken legs and fractured vertebrae I gave to other wrestlers and the broken pelvises I gave to the adoring female groupies, called Hot Tamales, weren't real man.....the nightmares I have tell me they were.......
- DarthYoda


W

T

F

???
OilHorse
Edmonton Oilers
Location: EKolb..ChiRef..Dnozzlesupreme, BC
Joined: 10.12.2010

Nov 8 @ 4:06 PM ET
Big difference between top pairing and #1.

He's good enough to play on a top pairing IF we had a real #1

- Morris


I see Petry as a 2/3.

The team has the dmen to cover the 4-7 slots.

Just get a guy to fill the #1.
Dangles13
Edmonton Oilers
Location: MB
Joined: 02.08.2011

Nov 8 @ 4:17 PM ET
Big difference between top pairing and #1.

He's good enough to play on a top pairing IF we had a real #1

- Morris


Maybe a good partner would help, he makes a lot of boneheaded plays and he his leading this team in giveaways.
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Nov 8 @ 4:33 PM ET
I think everyone agree that the special teams have suffered since (and perhaps because of) Eakins. Maybe some of the Eakins haters can tell me what has changed under him.

I'm a hockey fan, but not so much a hockey analyst.

- Morris
check sur

something I found on oilrig.com

1. The Oilers’ power play under Krueger enjoyed an unprecedentedly good run of shooting. Good enough for 1st and 2nd in the league.
2. Despite this, the Eakins’ year, lamentable as it is, actually managed to produce more unblocked shot attempts per 60 than either of the Krueger years.
3. During the Krueger years, the Oilers managed their remarkable shooting percentage while producing among the league’s worst in terms of unblocked shot attempts.
4. For reference, during the Krueger years, the elite power play teams managed c. 75 FF/60
5. Based on FF/60, the Oilers of recent vintage have absolutely not had anything like a good power play, including under Krueger.

The problem with looking at the power play in terms of efficiency and shooting percentage is that it lulls you into the mysteries of a fickle lover. Shooting percentage (as those who have watched Jordan Eberle or Nail Yakupov with any rigor are no doubt aware), especially on the power play, can vary widely from year to year.

The Oilers today are the same as they were before and during Krueger’s tenure: unable to reliably generate unblocked shot attempts on the power play. The story of the Krueger years is not “radically improved power play” but rather “exceptionally lucky power play.” Until the Oilers find a way to radically improve their shot generation abilities with the man advantage they are doomed to wait on luck, a mistress unlikely to strike thrice.

There has been a lot made of the recent hiring of assistant coach Craig Ramsay, who is said to be taking over the Oilers’ power play. As we wait to see what he comes up with, let’s be clear about a few things:

1. The power play was ghastly under Eakins (26th in FF/60)––the league worst 13 short handed goals against does not help matter.

2. The power play under Eakins was no worse, however, than it was under Krueger. It was, in fact, marginally better.

3. As Ramsay casts about for power play models of success, the last thing he should do is hone in what Krueger did. That kind of luck does not come with a blueprint. He should look to what San Jose has been doing for the past 5 years instead (they just happen to be the number one team in FF/60 five years in a row).

The Blinders of Narratives

Part of the project of advanced stats is to trouble the stories we tell about hockey with reality and all its thorns. Bringing luck into the conversation accomplishes two things: it strips away factors that are beyond an individual’s control and it lays bare the narratives that are build upon illusory foundations.

Accounting for luck, we can say Krueger constructed a poor power play that was unlikely to repeat its apparent success if he remained head coach. We can also see that results (i.e., the power play efficiency rate) are far less reliant upon an individual’s actions. Or, we can see that the Agent-Centered Model is deeply flawed.
Yeti1181
Referee
Edmonton Oilers
Location: I'm AWESOME, AB
Joined: 07.27.2012

Nov 8 @ 4:35 PM ET
Give up the insults
Oilers4Life14
Detroit Red Wings
Location: ON
Joined: 03.06.2013

Nov 8 @ 4:48 PM ET
Give up the insults. And dont forget to read the COC!!!!!!!!!!!
- Yeti1181


Fixed, for accuracy.
Dangles13
Edmonton Oilers
Location: MB
Joined: 02.08.2011

Nov 8 @ 4:52 PM ET
check sur

something I found on oilrig.com

1. The Oilers’ power play under Krueger enjoyed an unprecedentedly good run of shooting. Good enough for 1st and 2nd in the league.
2. Despite this, the Eakins’ year, lamentable as it is, actually managed to produce more unblocked shot attempts per 60 than either of the Krueger years.
3. During the Krueger years, the Oilers managed their remarkable shooting percentage while producing among the league’s worst in terms of unblocked shot attempts.
4. For reference, during the Krueger years, the elite power play teams managed c. 75 FF/60
5. Based on FF/60, the Oilers of recent vintage have absolutely not had anything like a good power play, including under Krueger.

The problem with looking at the power play in terms of efficiency and shooting percentage is that it lulls you into the mysteries of a fickle lover. Shooting percentage (as those who have watched Jordan Eberle or Nail Yakupov with any rigor are no doubt aware), especially on the power play, can vary widely from year to year.

The Oilers today are the same as they were before and during Krueger’s tenure: unable to reliably generate unblocked shot attempts on the power play. The story of the Krueger years is not “radically improved power play” but rather “exceptionally lucky power play.” Until the Oilers find a way to radically improve their shot generation abilities with the man advantage they are doomed to wait on luck, a mistress unlikely to strike thrice.

There has been a lot made of the recent hiring of assistant coach Craig Ramsay, who is said to be taking over the Oilers’ power play. As we wait to see what he comes up with, let’s be clear about a few things:

1. The power play was ghastly under Eakins (26th in FF/60)––the league worst 13 short handed goals against does not help matter.

2. The power play under Eakins was no worse, however, than it was under Krueger. It was, in fact, marginally better.

3. As Ramsay casts about for power play models of success, the last thing he should do is hone in what Krueger did. That kind of luck does not come with a blueprint. He should look to what San Jose has been doing for the past 5 years instead (they just happen to be the number one team in FF/60 five years in a row).

The Blinders of Narratives

Part of the project of advanced stats is to trouble the stories we tell about hockey with reality and all its thorns. Bringing luck into the conversation accomplishes two things: it strips away factors that are beyond an individual’s control and it lays bare the narratives that are build upon illusory foundations.

Accounting for luck, we can say Krueger constructed a poor power play that was unlikely to repeat its apparent success if he remained head coach. We can also see that results (i.e., the power play efficiency rate) are far less reliant upon an individual’s actions. Or, we can see that the Agent-Centered Model is deeply flawed.

- hugefemale dog77


I read the first 1 or 2 lines but yeah we should fire Eakins and hire the Katz kid to coach.
whipper334
Calgary Flames
Location: The man they call Reveen!!
Joined: 01.06.2010

Nov 8 @ 4:55 PM ET
Give up the insults
- Yeti1181

Shut it!!
Dangles13
Edmonton Oilers
Location: MB
Joined: 02.08.2011

Nov 8 @ 5:00 PM ET
Fixed, for accuracy.
- Oilers4Life14


You do realize it is against the C.O.C. to correct another poster, and you must respect the refs.
Oilers4Life14
Detroit Red Wings
Location: ON
Joined: 03.06.2013

Nov 8 @ 5:10 PM ET
You do realize it is against the C.O.C. to correct another poster, and you must respect the refs.
- Dangles13


deadsector
Edmonton Oilers
Location: sherwood park, AB
Joined: 01.08.2013

Nov 8 @ 5:15 PM ET
you fail to note that the sabers beat the sharks. So frankly I think on a back to back night it's understandable they were trailing having said that they won so who cares. and there were plenty of high quality shots buffalo has good goaltending something we don't seem to ever get.
OilHorse
Edmonton Oilers
Location: EKolb..ChiRef..Dnozzlesupreme, BC
Joined: 10.12.2010

Nov 8 @ 5:23 PM ET
Give up the insults
- Yeti1181


appreciate removing those posts
Yeti1181
Referee
Edmonton Oilers
Location: I'm AWESOME, AB
Joined: 07.27.2012

Nov 8 @ 5:25 PM ET
appreciate removing those posts
- OilHorse

Liar.
whipper334
Calgary Flames
Location: The man they call Reveen!!
Joined: 01.06.2010

Nov 8 @ 5:27 PM ET
Gio for the Norris!!!!! Get on board guys! You D suck so you may as well cheer for one in Alberta at least.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next