So I'm the only one who sticks up for Calgary. I say they hustle, they carry themselves well and have a battle tested goalie, but the only thing that is said (incorrectly) is that I've only seen them once.

Where's the love FlameNation?
- Ed Stein

(A front row seat has been reserved for you on the Flame's bandwagon.)


(Edit: And a shoutout to Todd for giving us a blog today. )

(A front row seat has been reserved for you on the Flame's bandwagon.)

- itwasin

We would give you Stampede tickets…..but I think we already gave all of them away on hypothetical trades.

If Gio sucked I would say so, like I did yesterday about Ryan Miller...who sucks.
- Matt_Henderson

Miller's been decent overall, but yeah he's a streaky guy. He'll have a string of games where he's mediocre, but when he's on his game he's definitely one of the best goalies in the league.


I guess it means the Canucks team overall is pretty damn solid if they're 3rd in the West a quarter into the season with a sucky goalie.


But no more VAN-EDM games for a long time now.

The other thing is that Giordano is playing out of his mind and would win the Norris if it was awarded a month and a half into the season. The thing is, while he's a great player, he isn't actually the best defensemen in the NHL and as his play goes back to his normal level, the so will the Flames

Not sure why this isn't Gio's normal? He outpaced a lot of perennial Norris candidates last year in less games played due to injury.

The other thing is that Giordano is playing out of his mind and would win the Norris if it was awarded a month and a half into the season. The thing is, while he's a great player, he isn't actually the best defensemen in the NHL and as his play goes back to his normal level, the so will the Flames

Not sure why this isn't Gio's normal? He outpaced a lot of perennial Norris candidates last year in less games played due to injury.
- scubasteve

Yeah, at this point he's an elite NHL d-man.

The other thing is that Giordano is playing out of his mind and would win the Norris if it was awarded a month and a half into the season. The thing is, while he's a great player, he isn't actually the best defensemen in the NHL and as his play goes back to his normal level, the so will the Flames

Not sure why this isn't Gio's normal? He outpaced a lot of perennial Norris candidates last year in less games played due to injury.
- scubasteve

thats just classic james for you, classic dumbass

The other thing is that Giordano is playing out of his mind and would win the Norris if it was awarded a month and a half into the season. The thing is, while he's a great player, he isn't actually the best defensemen in the NHL and as his play goes back to his normal level, the so will the Flames

Not sure why this isn't Gio's normal? He outpaced a lot of perennial Norris candidates last year in less games played due to injury.
- scubasteve

You see, you can't just spring these things on media types without warning. Media types enjoy feeling secure in their ways, and require a great deal of warning as to when a player is going to be really good. Generally, it's best if they're notified prior to that player making the NHL. They like it when a player they were expecting to be good is really good. It makes them happy, and they feel safe and secure. Even if a player they're expecting to be good turns out to be not that good, they can live with that. At least they know they were prepared.

But as soon as a player suddenly goes from okay at best to really freakin good while they're already in the NHL, they can be startled easily, and their first instinct is denial. They got no warning at all with Gio. They weren't told he was going to be the best defenceman in the game. There were some rumblings last season, but at this point in his career it's far too late for people to be willing to prepare themselves for that kind of thing. So denial it is. Giordano is not the player who is playing hockey this season. Giordano is the player who was playing hockey five seasons ago. He's okay, but nothing worth writing home about.

Miller's been decent overall, but yeah he's a streaky guy. He'll have a string of games where he's mediocre, but when he's on his game he's definitely one of the best goalies in the league.


I guess it means the Canucks team overall is pretty damn solid if they're 3rd in the West a quarter into the season with a sucky goalie.


But no more VAN-EDM games for a long time now.
- Nucker101

I'd agree with this. Vancouver is looking pretty good right now. I thought Miller was playing pretty good. The only thing I don't like is the term of his deal.

The experience of the flames centers is actually kinda funny:

Monohan - Sophomore
Ganlund - Rookie
Jooris - Rookie
Bouma - fourth year (however only 140 games)

Haha....so the best reasons why the Flames won't make the playoffs are based on advanced statistics? Thanks for the insight fellas!!

Also no mention about how they've been plagued by injuries but are STILL winning.

I'm not saying they will make the playoffs buts that's some poor analysis fellas. Step your games up!
- The-O-G

"everyone's wrong but me"

"everyone's wrong but me"
- TheNugeIsHuge

I'm sure the advanced stats prove that your level of being right is unsustainable and you'll regress soon to being wrong more often than not

Common sense would dictate that you don't comment on a team you never watch.

If Edmonton for examples sake, shoots 30 times from the deep perimeter, and Calgary shoots 15 times from the slot, who has a better chance to win that game?

Advanced stats are useful but flawed. They should support opinions not dictate. Stick to NJ, your thoughts on the Flames are a waste of time.
- IggyOnly

The example used above demonstrates the disconnect going on with people who don't understand the point of using shots as a proxy for goals.

While the example could occur in any given game, it is an actual impossibility that that situation could occur more than occasionally. Given a large enough set of data, the team that outshoots the other team will have had the better and more frequent chances. Yes, there are weird games, but the reason they're weird is because they rarely ever happen.

Stats are not meant to be conclusive. Even given a massive sample size, anomalies will occur. Teams who "shouldn't" succeed will succeed. It doesn't make this kind analysis useless as some would have you believe.

Still, people always point to one example - "Colorado made the playoffs" as proof the whole thing is flawed. But it's not. That's the equivalent of saying a guy is on pace for 82 goals because he scored in the first game.

Stats are an indicator. They are not meant to predict the future as much as give you a more educated understanding of the past. However, once you do understand the past, you now have a much better chance of guessing correctly about the future. You're still guessing because anything can happen.

However, there is rock solid data that says over enough time possessing the put correlates with winning that at this point saying "advanced stats are dumb" is a lot like arguing the earth is flat, global warming is a myth or 2+2= 11. If that's your take, you're welcome to it, but why not just spend an hour or two and educate yourself'? The term "advanced" is thrown around pretty loosely, this isn't physics.

And what's with you guys ripping me about what I said about Giordano? I called him a star, I just said he wasn't the best defenseman in hockey. Everyone knows he's good and has been for years. No one who isn't biased for the Flames/related to him thinks that he is the best D in the NHL going forward.

You don't just suddenly wake up 10 years into your career and become the best player in hockey. Yeah, he is excellent, but if you can't admit he's playing over his head, you're not being honest. Hell, he could even win the Norris. But is he going to start a three year reign as the NHL's best defenseman? No, because unless Shea Weber retires tomorrow, this is a ridiculous conversation to be having.


In closing, the Flames could very well make the playoffs - just, given their penchant for having the puck for a considerable amount of time less than their opponents, it is extremely unlikely.

But not impossible.

You see, you can't just spring these things on media types without warning. Media types enjoy feeling secure in their ways, and require a great deal of warning as to when a player is going to be really good. Generally, it's best if they're notified prior to that player making the NHL. They like it when a player they were expecting to be good is really good. It makes them happy, and they feel safe and secure. Even if a player they're expecting to be good turns out to be not that good, they can live with that. At least they know they were prepared.

But as soon as a player suddenly goes from okay at best to really freakin good while they're already in the NHL, they can be startled easily, and their first instinct is denial. They got no warning at all with Gio. They weren't told he was going to be the best defenceman in the game. There were some rumblings last season, but at this point in his career it's far too late for people to be willing to prepare themselves for that kind of thing. So denial it is. Giordano is not the player who is playing hockey this season. Giordano is the player who was playing hockey five seasons ago. He's okay, but nothing worth writing home about.


- TheBold

Giordano has been a star in the NHL for several seasons. You aren't making any sense. There are degrees between "he's the best" and "he's a complete loser." No one is making an extreme argument.

Sure, he can play this way for the rest of the season, it's just unlikely given all the data and every thing we know about him, his team, the league, the other players, etc etc etc.

I'd like it if he rocked the establishment and became a Jose Bautista like success story at an advanced athletic age. These things happen, they are just so rare that it makes more sense to believe in demonstrable tendencies than a complete long-shot.

I hope he keeps it up, but it's likely that by the end of the season that we're back to talking about Weber, Doughty, Hedman, Pietrangelo, PK, Eriksson, OEL, Keith, Suter and Chara.....Now, Giordano has been at the back end of that group for several years, and certainly he's outplaying all of them currently, but while not impossible, the chances of him continuing to be even in the top five of that list seem remote at best.

You don't just suddenly wake up 10 years into your career and become the best player in hockey.
- James_Tanner

but he can do basically what St.louis did at an older age. Find his stride and peak in a system that suits his skill set.

its all clicking, so he's able to achieve more. A player in the wrong system will hit less then his potential most times. A player in the right system can actually perform better, if the players around him are feeling the same. Thats basically whats going on in calgary right now. The team is bought in, and some of the key skillsets fit in perfectly as well. So people are able to reach their max.

You can use the sedins as an example of this, last year. wrong system. players skillsets did not match. huge underperformance. Or edmonton as a whole. team make up and role players that fit a system(Sutter taught us well on this on a coaching level), can win you cups. But sometimes its not a match.

I said I watched them for the full 65 minutes. It isn't the first time I've seen the Flames play. I watch many games and flip channels. One of my favorite perks of the job is I get to write off the Center Ice package.

So I'm the only one who sticks up for Calgary. I say they hustle, they carry themselves well and have a battle tested goalie, but the only thing that is said (incorrectly) is that I've only seen them once.

Where's the love FlameNation?
- Ed Stein

I liked what you wrote Tim and Adam were fair. The others tried too hard to blame our success on a few players, really it is a team effort getting us wins (as you saw the other night).

One issue I have is: You guys ask a question about the Flames and don't include the Flames blogger in the analysis (yet 2 Oilers bloggers )

Colin's one of the more respected writers on this site, and it seems like a mistake not to involve him on a discussion about a team he has extensive knowledge on...


Edit:

Another thing that had us upset about the "regression" argument was the fact that not one writer mentioned how decimated our forwards are. I know Backlund, Stajan, and Colbourne might not be big time players for other teams around the league but still.

Imagine if your team lost: Their 1C (and best possession player), 3C (but excellent defensive centre), and 2 top 6 wingers...Yet they still won games???

For perspective lets say Pitsburgh lost: Crosby, Kunitz, Hornqvist, and Sutter. It would be headline news if that team was still winning, yet they'd still have superstars like Malkin and Letang on the team.

bottom line.

I don't think flames fans are worried about if they make it or not. The success of the team is a perk to how well the rebuild is going.

I just hope that management doesn't buy into the hype and focuses on the plan, and not the playoffs.

As the great porkins said: "stay on target"

The example used above demonstrates the disconnect going on with people who don't understand the point of using shots as a proxy for goals.

While the example could occur in any given game, it is an actual impossibility that that situation could occur more than occasionally. Given a large enough set of data, the team that outshoots the other team will have had the better and more frequent chances. Yes, there are weird games, but the reason they're weird is because they rarely ever happen.

Stats are not meant to be conclusive. Even given a massive sample size, anomalies will occur. Teams who "shouldn't" succeed will succeed. It doesn't make this kind analysis useless as some would have you believe.

Still, people always point to one example - "Colorado made the playoffs" as proof the whole thing is flawed. But it's not. That's the equivalent of saying a guy is on pace for 82 goals because he scored in the first game.

Stats are an indicator. They are not meant to predict the future as much as give you a more educated understanding of the past. However, once you do understand the past, you now have a much better chance of guessing correctly about the future. You're still guessing because anything can happen.

However, there is rock solid data that says over enough time possessing the put correlates with winning that at this point saying "advanced stats are dumb" is a lot like arguing the earth is flat, global warming is a myth or 2+2= 11. If that's your take, you're welcome to it, but why not just spend an hour or two and educate yourself'? The term "advanced" is thrown around pretty loosely, this isn't physics.

And what's with you guys ripping me about what I said about Giordano? I called him a star, I just said he wasn't the best defenseman in hockey. Everyone knows he's good and has been for years. No one who isn't biased for the Flames/related to him thinks that he is the best D in the NHL going forward.

You don't just suddenly wake up 10 years into your career and become the best player in hockey. Yeah, he is excellent, but if you can't admit he's playing over his head, you're not being honest. Hell, he could even win the Norris. But is he going to start a three year reign as the NHL's best defenseman? No, because unless Shea Weber retires tomorrow, this is a ridiculous conversation to be having.


In closing, the Flames could very well make the playoffs - just, given their penchant for having the puck for a considerable amount of time less than their opponents, it is extremely unlikely.

But not impossible.
- James_Tanner

Well first, read my comment again. You went on a lecture against a point I didn't make. I stated that advanced stats are useful but can't stand alone to support an analysis on a team (as you attempt to do).

Second, for your point about a Dman coming into his prime at 31 (by the way, your ignoring how good he has been for the past few years once again illustrating your lack of knowledge regarding the Flames) look at Kiprusoff. He was ~29 when he took over in Calgary and was arguably the best (or close to) for the next 3 years. Let me guess, this doesn't count because he was a goalie?

Hahaha! So if the Flames do make the playoffs will the Stat Geeks come out & say Stats is an Analytical tool to show what has happened during a given sample size & has no foundation of being a predictor of performance? Stick your PDO up your arses & here's why:

Your Honor (Ed) & Ladies & Gents of the Jury(the rest of you & I emphasize ladies)

Exhibit 1: Elite numbers of the top pairing defencemen is not an anomaly. The stats supported Gio & Brodie last year in the 2nd half. In fact, had Gio not got injured last November, he was in the running for Canada's Olympic team. After the Oly break, that top pairing killed it. In addition, when Gio, Brody & Backlund were on the ice together, the possession numbers were elite in the NHL. Please note, this win streak has occurred when their top Possession Centreman has been injured. How does this support regression?

Exhibit 2: Compare the stats on where the shots are coming from to last year from the forward group. I think you will find unenlightening result. Could it be that the Flames are taking fewer shots hence dragging down the Corsi in favour of waiting to get that shot from a better position, hence the increased shooting percentages. Could this stat not be from the fact that the Flames players are better coached & finding success in what they are being taught & executing.

Exhibit 3: Flames have had their share of injuries but when their AHL players are called up & inserted in the lineup, they are performing as well or if not better than the player they are replacing. Interesting to note that the majority of the key injuries so far has been in the forwards. Flames prospects coming in are not 18-19 year olds just drafted. They are College players with very good NHLE numbers that are 20-21-22 years old. They are not getting overwhelmed & we still have many more champing at the bit that are ready as well in Arnold, Knight, Agostino & so on. 4 years ago Flames were ranked one of the worst in Hockey Futures, today they are 2nd. Don't be so surprised when rookies & sophomores are having success in the NHL with the Flames.

Exhibit 4: Last year the Flames goalies save percentages were way below league average, in fact Matt, well, they kinda look like the Oilers goalies save percentages today. Ramo in the last half of last year improved his percentages back up to closer than league average. This year Hiller was unreal & Ramo was over league average as well. Hiller has regressed back down already since the first 10 games & I don't see why the Stats community would think it is not possible for the Flames to maintain league average or just above league average goaltending from our goaltending tandem.

In conclusion: I think if you at all fair when giving these predictions that some of you have based on a 20 game sample size, is that the first 10 game sample size was very unattainable, but the 2nd sample size for games 11 thru 20 are causing that Corsi to rise "up" to the mean. PDO is useless in predicting because of 2 things, players are human beings & performance is affected by other factors & the parity in the league. It's a fine line between playoff teams & non playoff teams. Matt, seeing Oilers have converted to a Stat Organization, how do the Stat geeks account for the fact that the Oilers haven't beaten a Western Conference team yet but the Buffalo Sabres, whom I would dare say according to most Oiler fans & followers are totally inferior team to the Oilers have beaten both Anaheim & San Jose quite soundly. Stat geeks, explain that puppy??
- Kevin R

Well thanks for not addressing anything said on the previous two pages regarding analytics and the flames tanner. some very good point were made. instead you ramble on about gio as if he has come out of nowhere the guy has been playing great hockey for this team for years. Most of his time he's been overshadowed by guys like bouwmeester, phaneuf and Robyn regher. The fact that he's doing so well as the number one is a shock to nobody in Calgary. hea been getting better year over year Since he first made the team. Maybe not to the tune of a ten game point streak but you get my point.

OEL for Norris? Isn't he playing like crap? Could've sworn I heard that. Oh and didn't Giordano finish in like sixth place last year in Norris voting? On a bottom five team no less.

Giordano has been a star in the NHL for several seasons. You aren't making any sense. There are degrees between "he's the best" and "he's a complete loser." No one is making an extreme argument.

Sure, he can play this way for the rest of the season, it's just unlikely given all the data and every thing we know about him, his team, the league, the other players, etc etc etc.

I'd like it if he rocked the establishment and became a Jose Bautista like success story at an advanced athletic age. These things happen, they are just so rare that it makes more sense to believe in demonstrable tendencies than a complete long-shot.

I hope he keeps it up, but it's likely that by the end of the season that we're back to talking about Weber, Doughty, Hedman, Pietrangelo, PK, Eriksson, OEL, Keith, Suter and Chara.....Now, Giordano has been at the back end of that group for several years, and certainly he's outplaying all of them currently, but while not impossible, the chances of him continuing to be even in the top five of that list seem remote at best.
- James_Tanner

By what "advanced metric" has he ever been trailing OEL? Yikes... Not to mention Eriksson...? K..a..r..l..s..s..o..n. Pass the bottle.

By what "advanced metric" has he ever been trailing OEL? Yikes... Not to mention Eriksson...? K..a..r..l..s..s..o..n. Pass the bottle.
- IggyOnly

Exactly my point. OEL is considered better than Giordano because OEL is supposed to be better than Giordano. And Tanner, seeing as you missed my point, I'll make it again. Giordano hit "normal" prime years as a steady, 2/3 defenceman, and a good one at that. He did all the little things, and played with a lot of heart. He was the kind of guy any team wanted to have, just not as a #1. And so everyone closed the book on Gio, because he was at an age where most players stop improving. I don't care if that's correct 99 out of 100 times, because it only takes one time to be wrong about Gio.

This guy, if you've been watching him, is a fundamentally different player now than he was at age 28. His play style is different, his awareness is different, his confidence is different and his knowledge and understanding of the game is different. These aren't fluxional changes that go with the player's mood, they are parts of his game which have evolved over time. It's illogical to assume that Giordano will suddenly change his game back to what it was. The fundamental flaw in your reasoning is that Gio's success this season is based on PDO or puck luck or something which isn't sustainable. The fact is, the things that have changed in Gio's game over the last few years aren't things that are likely to be reversed until his body breaks down.

Are you guys just realizing how much of a joke this james guy is?
I'll put it this way, last year he wrote a rant blog about how ovi should've gotten MVP votes...

Hey guys, new here, but been on this site a while and this article really made me want to make an acc. Based on what these guys (writers) have to say about the flames, i don't think they've seen many games, or little to none. The flames HAVE been playing above par (or where they should be) but disciplined hockey which can continue with the goaltending and defense we've had.

Despite all of our injuries our forwards have been managing to get many scoring chances, imagine how much better we'll look when Colborne and Raymond are back. I really think Jooris and Granlund could very well stay put until all 5-6 regulars are back

[quote=Flamesfan_34]

And even then. Granlund and Jooris have earned their full-time spots on this club. They may have to shift to the wing like Colborne did, but they're here to stay, IMO.

Are you guys just realizing how much of a joke this james guy is?
I'll put it this way, last year he wrote a rant blog about how ovi should've gotten MVP votes...
- FLAM3SFAN

Didn't he also spend half the summer telling anyone that would listen that the yotes were a lock for a playoff spot.

Didn't he also spend half the summer telling anyone that would listen that the yotes were a lock for a playoff spot.
- PoketheBear

Ya probably, and then when anyone questions him he attacks them in the comments

"The defense and goaltending of the Coyotes aren't just playoff worthy, they match up favorably against every single Stanley Cup Contender."
Direct quote from him from the summer