HockeyBuzz Hotstove: Hotstove: Will The Calgary Flames Make The Playoffs?

Haha....so the best reasons why the Flames won't make the playoffs are based on advanced statistics? Thanks for the insight fellas!!

Also no mention about how they've been plagued by injuries but are STILL winning.

I'm not saying they will make the playoffs buts that's some poor analysis fellas. Step your games up!

No love at all. Jeez. This team is finding ways to win with a number of key injuries. Nothing more dangerous than a team winning that doesn't know they are supposed to be losing. I'm not saying they are a lock but I'm certainly wouldn't be surprised at this point. Either way as a fan I'm excited about the progression. Just imagine when guys like Jooris or Monahan have another couple of seasons under their belt. Then put some of the other young talent into the fold and we should have some long term success.

If the Flames wanted to appease the nay sayers they could make a money ball type trade to boost their advance stats. Ryan O Reilly would be a good target but the price would be huge.

Haha....so the best reasons why the Flames won't make the playoffs are based on advanced statistics? Thanks for the insight fellas!!
- The-O-G

Haha, no kidding. If sports analysis and prediction was as easy as looking at a piece of paper, we'd all be "experts".

Absolutely - they certainly aren't the Oilers!!

Haha....so the best reasons why the Flames won't make the playoffs are based on advanced statistics? Thanks for the insight fellas!!

Also no mention about how they've been plagued by injuries but are STILL winning.

I'm not saying they will make the playoffs buts that's some poor analysis fellas. Step your games up!
- The-O-G

It's common sense. You can't get outshot by a decent margin regularly and win a lot of games over time. Just ask Colorado and Toronto.

Tonight's game should be interesting. Calgary barely touched the puck last time against the Hawks. Not sure how they won that one ! One stat that's interesting is Gaudreau 2nd in the league in takaways. He's got to be a big slow dmans worst nightmare.

This is how I look at it:

Todd Cordell: Doesn't Watch the flames play.
Ryan Wilson: Doesn't Watch the flames play.
Matt Henderson: Oiler Fan so it doesn't count
Ed Stein: Admitted he only watched the flames play once
James Tanner: Obviously doesn't watch the flames based on his comments on Gio.
Tim Chiasson: I agree with those comments
Adam French: I agree with those comments

I think it comes down to if the Calgary defence can stay healthy. We do not have the depth at defence to account for this. Specifically the way Calgary enters the offensive zone. There is always a dman jumping up in the rush for a 4-3 odd man rush. This really opens things up. I have never seen this type of coaching. And it is a blast to watch.

It's common sense. You can't get outshot by a decent margin regularly and win a lot of games over time. Just ask Colorado and Toronto.
- Todd.Cordell

But both of those teams sustained it enough to make the playoffs for a season, which was the question.

It's common sense. You can't get outshot by a decent margin regularly and win a lot of games over time. Just ask Colorado and Toronto.
- Todd.Cordell

Common sense would dictate that you don't comment on a team you never watch.

If Edmonton for examples sake, shoots 30 times from the deep perimeter, and Calgary shoots 15 times from the slot, who has a better chance to win that game?

Advanced stats are useful but flawed. They should support opinions not dictate. Stick to NJ, your thoughts on the Flames are a waste of time.

Haha, no kidding. If sports analysis and prediction was as easy as looking at a piece of paper, we'd all be "experts".
- Kzak99

Are we not?

One stat I'd like to see improved is Byron's shooting % on a breakaway. He seems to get one every game !

One thing that doesn't show up on these stats is speed. The Flames are a very fast team that feeds on turnovers. That's why they're winning.

This is how I look at it:

Todd Cordell: Doesn't Watch the flames play.
Ryan Wilson: Doesn't Watch the flames play.
Matt Henderson: Oiler Fan so it doesn't count
Ed Stein: Admitted he only watched the flames play once
James Tanner: Obviously doesn't watch the flames based on his comments on Gio.
Tim Chiasson: I agree with those comments
Adam French: I agree with those comments

I think it comes down to if the Calgary defence can stay healthy. We do not have the depth at defence to account for this. Specifically the way Calgary enters the offensive zone. There is always a dman jumping up in the rush for a 4-3 odd man rush. This really opens things up. I have never seen this type of coaching. And it is a blast to watch.
- tmurph

Would it shock you to know I think Gio should be leading the Norris AND Hart trophy debate?

Would it shock you to know I think Gio should be leading the Norris AND Hart trophy debate?
- Matt_Henderson

suck up

It's common sense. You can't get outshot by a decent margin regularly and win a lot of games over time. Just ask Colorado and Toronto.
- Todd.Cordell

Colorado is just not playing very good hockey right now. But Toronto one was obvious.

Flames are typically getting 2-3 breakaways per game right now. How do you explain that in advanced stats.

Example:
Flames completely outplayed Ottawa on Saturday. Shots were 25-25.

Ducks outplayed Flames for the first 35 minutes last game. Flames DOMINATED the ducks the next 30 mins. Ducks outshot flames 27-19.

Maybe watch tonights game. Last time the Hawks did dominate the flames and the flames somehow won. That has been the exception and not the rule.

Would it shock you to know I think Gio should be leading the Norris AND Hart trophy debate?
- Matt_Henderson

I'm just making fun of you. I do agree with your comments.

Haha....so the best reasons why the Flames won't make the playoffs are based on advanced statistics? Thanks for the insight fellas!!

Also no mention about how they've been plagued by injuries but are STILL winning.

I'm not saying they will make the playoffs buts that's some poor analysis fellas. Step your games up!
- The-O-G

You're...welcome?

Synergy is what got the 2004 Flames to the finals. It wasn't individuals. Is there a stat that measures synergy?
This year's team has unbelievable synergy probably due to several things including the "old guard" (Iginla, with all due respect) being broken up and enthusiastic and talented rookies all (mostly) buying into superb coaching. Add a bit of luck, no key injuries and here we are.
If you don't look beyond individuals, it'll never make sense.
Imo, the worst thing they could do is bring in some veteran that would screw up the great chemistry - or a serious injury to Hiller, Ramo, Gio or TJ (edit: or a Phaneuf thingy). Otherwise, why can't it continue?

Are we not?
- Cptmjl

Haha, we are.

Here's the thing about these advanced stats. Many of the advanced stats are being heavily affected by our first five games, which were exactly the kind of games we were expecting all year and the Flames were getting dominated night-in, night-out. In addition, most of these numbers are coming from a Flames team which features a handful of rookie replacements.

Now, if we fast forward to when this team is relatively healthy in a couple of weeks, we should see a team which is better able to generate possession. And at that point, the dice have no memory, so to speak. The fact that we were at one statistical extreme to begin the season does not mean that we have to then be at the other extreme for a while later in the season to return to the mean. What we can safely expect is that the Flames' PDO will fall, but their possession numbers will probably rise. And at this point, the Flames have put themselves in a great position to succeed. If they can be a few games above .500 in each of the three remaining quarters of the season, there's no reason they shouldn't make the playoffs.

In addition, the analytics don't tell the story of the kind of chances being generated. Take, for example, the Anaheim game. I'm sure that the Corsi and Fenwick numbers were slanted way against us through 40 minutes, because we weren't generating anything. But on the flipside, Anaheim didn't really get any great scoring opportunities. Then flip to the third period, where the Flames woke up, we generated a whole bunch of quality scoring opportunities. The goals that went in were on plays where goals should be going in. Yet I'm sure that the Corsi numbers weren't swung back onto our side.

suck up
- Cptmjl

If Gio sucked I would say so, like I did yesterday about Ryan Miller...who sucks.

i have no problem with people saying the flames won't make the playoffs. yes, their numbers as is look unsustainable for the entire year and there's a long ways to go.

the problem i have, personally, is with this segment:

"The other thing is that Giordano is playing out of his mind and would win the Norris if it was awarded a month and a half into the season. The thing is, while he's a great player, he isn't actually the best defensemen in the NHL and as his play goes back to his normal level, the so will the Flames.

Not to completely discount what Giordano is doing, because it's impressive, but what is more likely a) 31 year old very good defenseman suddenly becomes NHL's best or b) veteran star defenseman goes on hot streak where he's the best for a while.

Bottom line, Calgary will finish closer to the basement than the playoffs when its all over."

you're spending too much time fawning over the high end oilers talent and cursing eakins for not giving yakupov more pp time. Gio had 47 points in 64 games last year. 40 points in 47 games the year before that. he was a +12 on a team that finished 4th last. leading defensemen in scoring this year is no fluke, nor is his +9 and leadership that has helped turn tj brodie into the 4th leading scorer among dmen.

he's not just a norris front runner at the 1/4 point of the season, he's a hart trophy front runner. yeah, he's 31, and yeah, every franchise would rather have a webber/keith/subban/ etc. but he, this year, is among the best dman in the league. there is no player more valuable to a franchise than gio right now, as he's developing the mindset and identity for a team that was going nowhere and gave them direction. watch a game, and then watch 10. he's not playing out of his mind. he's playing exactly how he's played for more than two years.

If Gio sucked I would say so, like I did yesterday about Ryan Miller...who sucks.
- Matt_Henderson

up suck

You're...welcome?
- Matt_Henderson

but isn't there an advanced stat saying the flames are thrid at puck time in the 70% of all goals scored zone.

doesnt that counteract normal puck time stats ?

could that not account for there high shooting precntage?

If Gio sucked I would say so, like I did yesterday about Ryan Miller...who sucks.
- Matt_Henderson

His record disagrees