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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: A Look at Flyers Draft Prep, Scouting and Development
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TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

May 1 @ 1:05 PM ET
Burmistrov is not a sure bet to come back to the NHL and Armia couldn't crack Buffalo's line up. I wouldn't move the Schenns to free up cap space. I am not averse to moving them; I would just want more to do it.
- aflyerpower8


Jsaq tweeted that Burmistrov announced he is interested in coming back to the NHL.

I like Armia though. His production hasn't caught up to his skill yet, but he's got some talent. Funny, everyone seems to love Rantanen. Armia has as much upside.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 1:06 PM ET
Great read Bill
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 1:08 PM ET
What would the Jets have to give up to get the Schenn brothers?

Realistic trade offers please...

- TheUltimateJet


2nd rounder
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

May 1 @ 1:08 PM ET
I'd probably make that deal. Honestly, I think Luke is a 4/5 dman at best and perhaps just a generic 3rd pair guy. With that in mind, you are really only giving up B. Schenn for the 2 Jets. You add skill, youth and get some cap relief.
- BiggE


I actually think of Luke as a 3/4. I think with the right partner he can get back to the level of play when he first came here. Confidence is a big factor with him. Stick him with a vet and then leave him there.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 1 @ 1:13 PM ET
Joel Armia and Burmistrov for the Schenns? I would want at least one guaranteed NHLer if I was trading away two.
- aflyerpower8


Swap Petan in for Armia and I'd do it.

But do you think the Jets would really have interest in the Schenns? They seem stacked on D, and pretty much set at C for the time being.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 1:13 PM ET
Epic blog.

The part about how # of picks impacts strategy was particularly interesting.

- Tomahawk


Yup , I've never thought about that angle before
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 1 @ 1:15 PM ET
Earlier this season, a Western Conference NHL scout raised the bar even higher, saying that Sanheim's first post-draft season reminded him of the early progression of eventual two-time Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith.


I've been looking at Keith's early years closely recently, and it seems like with a birthday of 7/6/83 he was eligible to be drafted in 2001 as he turned 18 less than a month after the 2001 draft. Then after his 18-year old season at Michigan State (41 games, 15 points) where he was listed as being 6'0", 173 pounds:

http://www.msuspartans.co.../duncan_keith_124496.html

He was taken late in the 2nd round in 2002 by Chicago.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/draft.php?year=2002

His 19 year old season was spent mainly in the WHL where he produced 60 points in 56 total games for Kelowna.

His 20 and 21 year old seasons were in the AHL, producing 53 points in 168 total games.

The HF prospectus top 20 prospects from September 2004, has Keith listed as their 19th best prospect, partly due to concerns about his size. It's possible he would have played in the NHL in 04-05, but of course that season was lost to the lockout. So his NHL debut did not happen till he was 22.

http://www.hockeysfuture....ackhawks_top20_prospects/

My takeaway from all this is that the early progression of Duncan Keith is more similar to Gostisbehere than it is to Sanheim.
arichardson22
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

May 1 @ 1:17 PM ET
All 9 Picks for McDavid
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 1:18 PM ET
I've been looking at Keith's early years closely recently, and it seems like with a birthday of 7/6/83 he was eligible to be drafted in 2001 as he turned 18 less than a month after the 2001 draft. Then after his 18-year old season at Michigan State (41 games, 15 points) where he was listed as being 6'0", 173 pounds:

http://www.msuspartans.co.../duncan_keith_124496.html

He was taken late in the 2nd round in 2002 by Chicago.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/draft.php?year=2002

His 19 year old season was spent mainly in the WHL where he produced 60 points in 56 total games for Kelowna.

His 20 and 21 year old seasons were in the AHL, producing in 53 points 168 total games.

The HF prospectus top 20 prospects from September 2004, has Keith listed as their 19th best prospect, partly due to concerns about his size. It's possible he would have played in the NHL as 04-05, but of course that season was lost to the lockout. So his NHL debut did not happen till he was 22.

http://www.hockeysfuture....ackhawks_top20_prospects/

My takeaway from all this is that the early progression of Duncan Keith is more similar to Gostisbehere than it is to Sanheim.

- Feanor


My guess is there are a bunch of busts that have been on this trajectory before. Right now it looks good which is good enough right now for me
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

May 1 @ 1:18 PM ET
What would the Jets have to give up to get the Schenn brothers?

Realistic trade offers please...

- TheUltimateJet


If I'm calling the shots?

They can trade us the rights to Burmistrov and a Teemu Selanne jersey in vintage Jets blue for me, personally.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 1 @ 1:22 PM ET
My guess is there are a bunch of busts that have been on this trajectory before. Right now it looks good which is good enough right now for me
- Just5


Can you think of any 6'3" or taller defensemen who scored at a point per game in the CHL in their 18 year old seasons and went on to be busts?
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 1 @ 1:35 PM ET
Joel Armia and Burmistrov for the Schenns? I would want at least one guaranteed NHLer if I was trading away two.
- aflyerpower8

Their 1st and Burmistrov. We can throw in a Kimmo pick conditional to Burmi signing. Take Svechnikov with the Jets pick.

Sounds like a steal for us but I really don't think Burmi is going to go at full trade value.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 1:41 PM ET
Can you think of any 6'3" or taller defensemen who scored at a point per game in the CHL in their 18 year old seasons and went on to be busts?
- Feanor


Jonathan Blum. He's 6'2" if that counts. 64 pts in 63 GP at 18 and 66 pts in 51 GP as 19 yoa in whl. Not that there are many
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 1 @ 1:43 PM ET
Can you think of any 6'3" or taller defensemen who scored at a point per game in the CHL in their 18 year old seasons and went on to be busts?
- Feanor


Guess you could dig back in time for Cam Barker or Bobby Sanguinetti, but it's just really not that common for big 18-yo dmen to score ppg in their D or D+1 year.
benjichronic
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 09.22.2014

May 1 @ 1:58 PM ET
Vancouver's blog is talking about radim vrbata being on the trade block to get younger up front. Would anyone be interested in trading for a guy like him? He statistically had one of his best seasons. Two problems that immediately jump out- he's 33, and he plays RW. he is a skilled player, not too fast, good with the puck, he can pass, and he can shoot.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 1 @ 1:59 PM ET
Vancouver's blog is talking about radim vrbata being on the trade block to get younger up front. Would anyone be interested in trading for a guy like him? He statistically had one of his best seasons. Two problems that immediately jump out- he's 33, and he plays RW. he is a skilled player, not too fast, good with the puck, he can pass, and he can shoot.
- benjichronic


No
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 1 @ 2:02 PM ET
Sanheim will be anchoring the top pair of a playoff Flyers team next season

Fact
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 1 @ 2:02 PM ET
Vancouver's blog is talking about radim vrbata being on the trade block to get younger up front. Would anyone be interested in trading for a guy like him? He statistically had one of his best seasons. Two problems that immediately jump out- he's 33, and he plays RW. he is a skilled player, not too fast, good with the puck, he can pass, and he can shoot.
- benjichronic


As for any productive veteran who is available, it would depend on what hey want in return. He makes 5 mil per so that also scares me somewhat, but it is also only for one more season.

Interesting.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 2:05 PM ET
Vancouver's blog is talking about radim vrbata being on the trade block to get younger up front. Would anyone be interested in trading for a guy like him? He statistically had one of his best seasons. Two problems that immediately jump out- he's 33, and he plays RW. he is a skilled player, not too fast, good with the puck, he can pass, and he can shoot.
- benjichronic


Sure send vinny
benjichronic
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 09.22.2014

May 1 @ 2:07 PM ET
As for any productive veteran who is available, it would depend on what hey want in return. He makes 5 mil per so that also scares me somewhat, but it is also only for one more season.

Interesting.

- MBFlyerfan


The 5 mil is what mostly makes me say probably not. Even if it is for only one more season, if he does stay productive, he asks for another 5 mil contract, or he asks for more than that. Then you have a 35 year old on your hands that could take a turn for the worst at any moment, for 6 mil a year until the guy is 39 Yeesh, the more I think about it what an awful trade idea....
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 1 @ 2:18 PM ET
The 5 mil is what mostly makes me say probably not. Even if it is for only one more season, if he does stay productive, he asks for another 5 mil contract, or he asks for more than that. Then you have a 35 year old on your hands that could take a turn for the worst at any moment, for 6 mil a year until the guy is 39 Yeesh, the more I think about it what an awful trade idea....
- benjichronic




Yeah, regardless, I am not giving up picks or prospects to deal for him, even if he is still productive and has only one year left on his 5 million deal.

Its seems that he would be a good rental prospect in a deal for Vancouver during next season. They would probably get more for him in that situation.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

May 1 @ 2:23 PM ET
There's something ironic about that question coming from you.
- tangent_man


of course there is. that's exactly why i posted it.
manvanfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: MB
Joined: 01.21.2012

May 1 @ 2:31 PM ET
It's really not worth leaving your own board to post something that stupid here.
- Feanor


the 7th for a 3rd line centre and a 5/6 D with a brutal contract. For a game changer like buff. Man, to say you overvalue your players is an understatement.
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

May 1 @ 2:33 PM ET
Did we hire Babcock yet?
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

May 1 @ 2:34 PM ET
Sanheim will be anchoring the top pair of a playoff Flyers team next season

Fact

- PhillySportsGuy

I love the enthusiasm. Hope you're right. Although, considering its a fact, I guess I'll be pre-ordering my playoff tix.
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