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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: 15 minutes of shame in the first period vs. Tampa Bay
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Buffalo--Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: 2 15/16, NY
Joined: 07.07.2010

Nov 6 @ 2:24 PM ET
Im not entirely sure of that. none of the wingers we have really strike me as "sniper" material.

It will eventually start going in for them but i think to get into that good/lucky quadrant we'll need one more.

- Sabresfan-365



Yeah I guess you're right. I hate to say it but Vanek would be applicable in this situation.
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Nov 6 @ 2:29 PM ET
I have no comeback for this. I can't possibly understand how any of that would confuse you
- Sabresfan-365


The confusing part, for me, is why anybody would keep track of a stat that morphs another stat now recognized by the entire hockey universe as so flawed as to be meaningless (+/-), and erodes the marginal significance of that flawed stat even more by moving it further away from any objective piece of datum (a goal), by linking it to a largely subjective piece of datum ("scoring chance").

And beyond keeping track of it, try to measure quality based on it.

But I spell Stamkos with only six letters.


MCGUIZZY
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bay Area, CA
Joined: 06.20.2012

Nov 6 @ 2:29 PM ET
Id like to see William Carrier get a shot sometime this season
sskkoo1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: You are all Weirdos, NY
Joined: 06.06.2012

Nov 6 @ 2:35 PM ET
Id like to see William Carrier get a shot sometime this season
- MCGUIZZY


I keep forgetting this kid is even in the organization, you never hear much about him. St. Louis moved up to get him so they must have seen something in him, and TM obviously saw something.
MCGUIZZY
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bay Area, CA
Joined: 06.20.2012

Nov 6 @ 2:46 PM ET
I keep forgetting this kid is even in the organization, you never hear much about him. St. Louis moved up to get him so they must have seen something in him, and TM obviously saw something.
- sskkoo1



Should have a good 2nd year he was one of the youngest player for the Amerks last year. Good size, skill and plays a power game. Could be a darkhorse call up. 4 points in 4 games so far and a plus 6..
sskkoo1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: You are all Weirdos, NY
Joined: 06.06.2012

Nov 6 @ 3:22 PM ET
Should have a good 2nd year he was one of the youngest player for the Amerks last year. Good size, skill and plays a power game. Could be a darkhorse call up. 4 points in 4 games so far and a plus 6..
- MCGUIZZY


I would also like to see Rhuwedel get some time up this year. I don't think he'll be very happy if we have him pegged for the AHL again next year and I could see a problem in resigning him. I'd like to see him get some NHL time and maybe increase his value come trade-deadline time.
MCGUIZZY
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bay Area, CA
Joined: 06.20.2012

Nov 6 @ 4:26 PM ET
I would also like to see Rhuwedel get some time up this year. I don't think he'll be very happy if we have him pegged for the AHL again next year and I could see a problem in resigning him. I'd like to see him get some NHL time and maybe increase his value come trade-deadline time.
- sskkoo1



Hes a trade chip as far as im concerned. I just dont see him getting a chance here at least not as a right hand shot. Franson signing basically sealed the deal on that. Perhaps if there are multiple injuries hel see time here but I dont see any other way
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Nov 6 @ 4:28 PM ET
Should have a good 2nd year he was one of the youngest player for the Amerks last year. Good size, skill and plays a power game. Could be a darkhorse call up. 4 points in 4 games so far and a plus 6..
- MCGUIZZY


Just curious do you think trading the big z was a mistake now O'Reilly is a stud and to think he's only 23 is just absolutely crazy I thought he be good but not this good I think we have a young Bergeron in our hands i see many selke trophy wins
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 6 @ 4:30 PM ET
The confusing part, for me, is why anybody would keep track of a stat that morphs another stat now recognized by the entire hockey universe as so flawed as to be meaningless (+/-), and erodes the marginal significance of that flawed stat even more by moving it further away from any objective piece of datum (a goal), by linking it to a largely subjective piece of datum ("scoring chance").

And beyond keeping track of it, try to measure quality based on it.

But I spell Stamkos with only six letters.

- Der Kaiser



I think it's because +/- doesn't give you the whole picture. Like in this example we know the sabres have had some difficulty scoring but by analyzing data like scoring chances we can develop a better understanding as to why that might be. You put that together with the chart that was posted earlier and it points to a lack of luck coupled with the need for another sniper.
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Nov 6 @ 4:32 PM ET
So Percy Harvin's going on IR well that was a waste of a year
MCGUIZZY
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bay Area, CA
Joined: 06.20.2012

Nov 6 @ 4:40 PM ET
Just curious do you think trading the big z was a mistake now O'Reilly is a stud and to think he's only 23 is just absolutely crazy I thought he be good but not this good I think we have a young Bergeron in our hands i see many selke trophy wins
- gerbe75pts



I wish we didnt have to trade him but i am very happy to have O'Reilly. So yea I think it was still a mistake to trade him because I believe he had really nice potential in a position of need. But Zad is still a year away and O'Reilly is someone ive wanted on this team for years and im happy hes here. I guess I just wished it didnt require Zad to get him
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Nov 6 @ 4:41 PM ET
Who's ever bright idea was to make the bills uniform all red should be tarred and feathered

Did he think we are the Patriots
sskkoo1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: You are all Weirdos, NY
Joined: 06.06.2012

Nov 6 @ 4:42 PM ET
Hes a trade chip as far as im concerned. I just dont see him getting a chance here at least not as a right hand shot. Franson signing basically sealed the deal on that. Perhaps if there are multiple injuries hel see time here but I dont see any other way
- MCGUIZZY


I agree, but I think he's a trade chip whose stock can increase by the deadline if we showcase him a bit. He didn't play bad the few times we'd called him up and he's solid at the AHL level. I really think he can be a teams low-cost 5-6 defensemen or insurance depth for a playoff run. I'd hate to see this kid mature in our organization for the past four years now and we just let him walk or put him on waivers. Tim Murray should maximize value at every opportunity since he has no problem paying steep prices for the guys he really wants.
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Nov 6 @ 4:44 PM ET
I wish we didnt have to trade him but i am very happy to have O'Reilly. So yea I think it was still a mistake to trade him because I believe he had really nice potential in a position of need. But Zad is still a year away and O'Reilly is someone ive wanted on this team for years and im happy hes here. I guess I just wished it didnt require Zad to get him
- MCGUIZZY


That is true but it sounds like Z is still acting like a child in Colorado maybe it was a good idea to pull the plug before it got out of control but I do agree we are very skinny on defense
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Nov 6 @ 4:49 PM ET
Who's ever bright idea was to make the bills uniform all red should be tarred and feathered

Did he think we are the Patriots

- gerbe75pts



The idea was to give the team a color it didn't already have. The only choice that fit the team's color scheme was red, unless you do a different shade of blue.
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Nov 6 @ 5:14 PM ET
Those Greg hardy pictures are pretty disgusting how could the Dallas Cowboys employ such a monster
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Nov 6 @ 5:17 PM ET
I think it's because +/- doesn't give you the whole picture. Like in this example we know the sabres have had some difficulty scoring but by analyzing data like scoring chances we can develop a better understanding as to why that might be. You put that together with the chart that was posted earlier and it points to a lack of luck coupled with the need for another sniper.
- Sabresfan-365



That's my whole point 365 - we don't need to go through all this homework to know what our eyes already tell us. The reason why they're not scoring is because the puck doesn't go into the net. If you want me to, I can break that data down into three separate categories - those where the opposing goalie stops it from going in; those where a shot occurs but misses the net; and those where the Sabres mishandle the puck and dont get a shot at all.

But I can already see that just watching the game; I don't need a bunch of "+/- 5 on 5 scoring chance" speadsheets for that.
feetontheair22
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Tampa doesn't suck, FL
Joined: 02.01.2011

Nov 6 @ 5:17 PM ET
Who's ever bright idea was to make the bills uniform all red should be tarred and feathered

Did he think we are the Patriots

- gerbe75pts


They are almost as bad as the Jets all greens....its not even Jets green..

they look like green plastic soldiers out there
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 6 @ 5:32 PM ET
That's my whole point 365 - we don't need to go through all this homework to know what our eyes already tell us. The reason why they're not scoring is because the puck doesn't go into the net. If you want me to, I can break that data down into three separate categories - those where the opposing goalie stops it from going in; those where a shot occurs but misses the net; and those where the Sabres mishandle the puck and dont get a shot at all.

But I can already see that just watching the game; I don't need a bunch of "+/- 5 on 5 scoring chance" speadsheets for that.

- Der Kaiser


True, especially in this case since we watch this team regularly. You would usually use this as way of trying to close the gap in differences between what your eyes show you and what basic stats tell you (i.e why is it that when i watch player x he's doing great things out there but his numbers aren't so good). The opposite is true too, helps point out confirmation bias (like with me and jake gardiner )

However my eyes didn't tell me that this team was the only one with no players in negative scoring chance differential which is huge (especially after the last two years). Same goes with the numbers on pysyk, girgs and mccabe and where they rank among other players. That's the other area where it can be useful, comparing with the competition which you presumably don't watch as often.

TLDR: It's a useful supplement but not a replacement. I just post this stuff because it can lead to good discussion.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Nov 6 @ 5:48 PM ET
Hadn't realized this till now but T-pegs has had his fair share business controversies

East Resources-Cattle Contamination

and recently JKLM using illegal chemicals in fracking resulting in water contamination.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Nov 6 @ 6:40 PM ET
That is true but it sounds like Z is still acting like a child in Colorado maybe it was a good idea to pull the plug before it got out of control but I do agree we are very skinny on defense
- gerbe75pts


ummm what? There is not one single report of that from people who cover the Avs (amateur or professional). Dont listen to garth like people. you are better than that.

Both Zads and Grigo have been pros in Denver
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Nov 6 @ 7:26 PM ET
True, especially in this case since we watch this team regularly. You would usually use this as way of trying to close the gap in differences between what your eyes show you and what basic stats tell you (i.e why is it that when i watch player x he's doing great things out there but his numbers aren't so good). The opposite is true too, helps point out confirmation bias (like with me and jake gardiner )

However my eyes didn't tell me that this team was the only one with no players in negative scoring chance differential which is huge (especially after the last two years). Same goes with the numbers on pysyk, girgs and mccabe and where they rank among other players. That's the other area where it can be useful, comparing with the competition which you presumably don't watch as often.

TLDR: It's a useful supplement but not a replacement. I just post this stuff because it can lead to good discussion.

- Sabresfan-365

I like Pysyk a lot, but I'd like to see if he can handle 20+ minutes a game.

He seems like one of the best 4-5 guys in the league based on his usage
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Nov 6 @ 8:18 PM ET
ummm what? There is not one single report of that from people who cover the Avs (amateur or professional). Dont listen to garth like people. you are better than that.

Both Zads and Grigo have been pros in Denver

- DDM-Coga


He's not ready
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Nov 6 @ 8:21 PM ET
ummm what? There is not one single report of that from people who cover the Avs (amateur or professional). Dont listen to garth like people. you are better than that.

Both Zads and Grigo have been pros in Denver

- DDM-Coga


why was he in the press box ? that was the usually thing in buffalo
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Nov 6 @ 8:24 PM ET
why was he in the press box ? that was the usually thing in buffalo
- gerbe75pts


He needed a break, with young players it helps to watch from a different view.

It was pretty well documented if you would have looked for it instead of assuming.
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