Could they not indicate that his peers are not having great years, and he is relatively better? I.e. he is having a good year on a bad team?
- zopust

That's exactly what is happening.

It's misleading because on the actual underlying individual stats, Doughty is having the stronger year (58.2 CF% vs 52.8 CF% for Gardiner) - it's just that Doughty's CF / CA / CD RelTM is lower due to the fact that LA is so very, very good from a Corsi perspective, ranked #1 in the league. Whereas Gardiner's high CF / CA / CD RelTM is in large part due to the fact that the rest of the Leafs are so bad.

It's tough to compare the players on that basis because the teams are so different - for example, if Gardiner were traded to the Kings and put up the same numbers, he'd actually have a negative CF / CA / CD RelTM as his numbers are lower than the team average.

What I see is Tanner providing evidence for his argument, and a bunch of people saying "Gardiner Sux".
- RogerRoeper

Saying Gardiner is not near the quality of player Doughty is does not mean I am saying Gardiner sucks.

Just means Tanner is wrong (again).

PS: Gardiner sucks.

Like each referee calls a game differently, even though they are suppose to abide by the same rules, many of these stats have a level of subjectivity by the person recording each event.

I have stated from the start, these stats are nothing more than directional, which should be used as a starting point of a discussion rather than the whole discussion.

There is value in these stats, but time and time again, Tanner has proven in his "analysis" that they are often not a true overall indication of the value/worth of a player.

Be a statshead all you want, but poke your head out of the numbers once and a while to catch a whiff of reality, too.
- Mashadar

yeah, kind of what i was getting at

AEG selected by Glendale to run the Gila Monster Arena.

No details released.
- Atomic Wedgie

if the yotes plan on staying locally, i could see them being interested in signing a 4-6 deal while a new arena is built.

i suspect AEG will be looking for a longer term commitment.

James, the metrics you used that show Jake is having the better season are all relative to their team mates, are they not?

Could they not indicate that his peers are not having great years, and he is relatively better? I.e. he is having a good year on a bad team?

As an example, if these advanced stats were available in the 70's, would Guy Lapointe, Serge Savard and Larry Robinson all have huge CF/CA/CD relative to their team mates?

Which then begs the question... the best player on a bad team vs a mediocre player on a great team... which is truly better?
- zopust

Its a good question. I can only speculate on the answer. I believe the way these stats were drawn up and this chart put together was to make it easier to compare players across different teams.

So yes, I guess playing on a good team its hard to be better by comparison, but by the same token, you also get a very significant bump from playing with better players. The Leafs don't have a Lucic, Toffoli, Gaborik, Kopitar group of forwards and they sure as hell don't have a Jake Muzzin. So while it's probably harder for Doughty to be better than his good teammates, Gardiner also plays on a team with Matt Hunwick, Tyler Bozak and Dion Phaneuf is his partner.

Its a good question. I can only speculate on the answer. I believe the way these stats were drawn up and this chart put together was to make it easier to compare players across different teams.

So yes, I guess playing on a good team its hard to be better by comparison, but by the same token, you also get a very significant bump from playing with better players. The Leafs don't have a Lucic, Toffoli, Gaborik, Kopitar group of forwards and they sure as hell don't have a Jake Muzzin. So while it's probably harder for Doughty to be better than his good teammates, Gardiner also plays on a team with Matt Hunwick, Tyler Bozak and Dion Phaneuf is his partner.
- James_Tanner

So you are using stats you don't quite 100% understand to try to make your point.

Makes sense.

Holy poop I'm dying at the irony of you accusing people of being condescending without reading first... Well that, and your claim to use "facts and evidence" when in reality you just cherry pick what suits your argument and ignore the rest.

Just to remind everyone of why Tanner is so amusing...

http://www.hockeybuzz.com...p?thread_id=132362&page=5
- TheMaritimer

Don't be a jerk and I will happily converse with you. Right or wrong, I always am willing to discuss what I write. You cannot seem to get over yourself long enough to discuss what you are so certain is correct.

Interesting point
- HB77

And shot, attempted shots, missed shots, blocked shots, etc are at the mercy of the in arena data collection teams that work for the NHL. Some arenas are more generous, other are very stringent, end of the day, its humans using the good old eye test to collect this data of what is a shot, missed shot, etc.

It probably averages out among all 30 arenas, but thats why shot based metrics are more of a tool of defining a players ability, not a definition.

What I see is Tanner providing evidence for his argument, and a bunch of people saying "Gardiner Sux".
- RogerRoeper

Amen brother.

It's tough to compare the players on that basis because the teams are so different - for example, if Gardiner were traded to the Kings and put up the same numbers, he'd actually have a negative CF / CA / CD RelTM as his numbers are lower than the team average.
- TheMaritimer

Hence the difficulty in using these numbers to compare players.

I saw Brian Burke on Tim & Sid saying that advanced stats will never tell you if a player would be willing to block a shot with his face. He's bang on... and as I've read from other people posting today, hockey is too fluid a game to break down into instances or events. Even metrics as standard as Power Play %, Penalty Kill %, and Faceoff winning % offer an interesting view, but they don't mean a team will/won't be successful.

But... it does give us something else to take our attention away from doing actual work during the day!

Hence the difficulty in using these numbers to compare players.

I saw Brian Burke on Tim & Sid saying that advanced stats will never tell you if a player would be willing to block a shot with his face. He's bang on... and as I've read from other people posting today, hockey is too fluid a game to break down into instances or events. Even metrics as standard as Power Play %, Penalty Kill %, and Faceoff winning % offer an interesting view, but they don't mean a team will/won't be successful.

But... it does give us something else to take our attention away from doing actual work during the day!
- zopust

This.

Don't be a jerk and I will happily converse with you. Right or wrong, I always am willing to discuss what I write. You cannot seem to get over yourself long enough to discuss what you are so certain is correct.
- James_Tanner

Except you decided to completely ignore his previous post which blows up your argument.

And shot, attempted shots, missed shots, blocked shots, etc are at the mercy of the in arena data collection teams that work for the NHL. Some arenas are more generous, other are very stringent, end of the day, its humans using the good old eye test to collect this data of what is a shot, missed shot, etc.

It probably averages out among all 30 arenas, but thats why shot based metrics are more of a tool of defining a players ability, not a definition.
- DDM-Coga

Actually, it probably doesn't.

If your home team guy is off, it screws half of your data points.

Gardiner's a decent defenseman but the Warrior chart is misleading in that it might make people who don't understand the underlying measures think Gardiner is better.

Doughty puts up superior ice time, goals, assists and points.
Gardiner puts up superior CF60 RelTM, CA60RelTM and CD60 RelTM (all stats measured relative to teammates).

LA is currently ranked #1 in the league with a team 54.8% CF, a full 3.5% ahead of the Leafs. It's no surprise that Gardiner shows superior CF60 / CA60 / CD60 RelTm to Doughty because Gardiner plays on a team that has some really poopty players on it. Likewise, it's really tough for Doughty to put up great numbers because his team is so very, very good from a Corsi perspective.

If you compare them directly I think you get a better idea of how dominant each is - Doughty is rocking an ungodly 58.2 CF% at 5v5, good for fifth overall in the league and first amongst defensemen, minimum 500 mins played. (Coincidentally, LA players occupy the top 7 spots leaguewide in that statistic, and 8 of the top 10). Meanwhile, you have Gardiner sitting at a respectable 52.8 CF%, good for 108th overall and 35th amongst defensemen. All of a sudden he's not looking quite on par with Doughty...
- TheMaritimer

if the yotes plan on staying locally, i could see them being interested in signing a 4-6 deal while a new arena is built.

i suspect AEG will be looking for a longer term commitment.
- Tumbleweed

I don't really see AEG as having much leverage.

Actually, it probably doesn't.

If your home team guy is off, it screws half of your data points.
- Atomic Wedgie

Fair point, but I meant more of averaging out as a whole among the level of consistency across the league. Some teams will be hurting more than others based on skewed data

I know Roy complains about the Pepsi Centers shot counters, doesnt believe they are the are consistent and hand out shots too generously for both sides

So yes, I guess playing on a good team its hard to be better by comparison, but by the same token, you also get a very significant bump from playing with better players. The Leafs don't have a Lucic, Toffoli, Gaborik, Kopitar group of forwards and they sure as hell don't have a Jake Muzzin. So while it's probably harder for Doughty to be better than his good teammates, Gardiner also plays on a team with Matt Hunwick, Tyler Bozak and Dion Phaneuf is his partner.
- James_Tanner

I don't think anyone would put Hunwick, Bozak or Phaneuf in the same category as the Kings players you listed there, but agree to disagree there.

I agree with the significant bump... but that's overall, not relative. Sure Doughty gets a bump, but so do they by playing with him... so his relative numbers aren't as overwhelming. If you produced those stats for the 2014 Canadian Olympic team, there's bound to be a future hall-of-famer who sucked hard compared to his future hall-of-famer team mates. But it doesn't mean he sucks...

In Gardiner's defense, I think he is perfect for a Babcock system. Great skater, good vision, good size. From what I have seen, the Leafs are playing in a new system which doesn't suit their current players. I believe they will get there, and that Gardiner and especially Rielly will thrive. It took the Wings years to develop their system, but once it was in place, they can turn over the players and still be successful, akin to the Devils in their heydays, the Pats and the Steelers in the NFL, etc.

As a Sens fan, I hope the Leafs and the Sens can get back to the glory days of the 2000's and we'll finally get a shot to best the Buds in the playoffs.

Interesting point
- HB77

Hey hb77 have to give you credit for being dead on about the Habs. Early in the season when they were being anointed by the media and fan base you thought they were grossly overrated and would come crashing back to earth. Props to you man.

Except you decided to completely ignore his previous post which blows up your argument.
- HealthyScratch6

I don't see how getting completely eviscerated by TheMaritimer again is going to help Tanner's credibility...

I don't see how getting completely eviscerated by TheMaritimer again is going to help Tanner's credibility...
- AxlRose91

I think TheMaritimer should get some help with his Tanner fetish. He claims to be a teacher or professor and then he throws words like stupid and moron out there. Real classy.

Until I see Gardiner play the same role or even remotely close to the same role as Doughty, I can't fathom putting them in the same category.

One literally plays half of the game, in all situations, and consistently plays against the top lines, and consistently performs as one of the best in the league.

Also, why doesn't Doughty have the same amount of "highlights" as Jake Gardiner when it comes to doing ridiculously dumb things? Is it possible that Gardiner is just more prone to it, and that's just another reason why they aren't comparable ?

While I think that advanced stats show that Gardiner is not as bad as most think (quite underrated), I also think that they are flawed in giving an accurate picture of a players overall value. Many on here have given great examples where the advanced stats do not show the full players value and I highly doubt there is a single hockey fan that believe Gardiner and Doughty are in the same league.

I 100% belive if Gardiner were playing for the Kings, Caps, Hawks, etc....that he would be much more highly regarded. Vice versa, if Doughty were a Leaf, I fully believe he would not viewed the same way. Call it Leaf hatred, call it playing for a lousy hockey team or call it somewhere in the middle....

I don't think anyone would put Hunwick, Bozak or Phaneuf in the same category as the Kings players you listed there, but agree to disagree there.

I agree with the significant bump... but that's overall, not relative. Sure Doughty gets a bump, but so do they by playing with him... so his relative numbers aren't as overwhelming. If you produced those stats for the 2014 Canadian Olympic team, there's bound to be a future hall-of-famer who sucked hard compared to his future hall-of-famer team mates. But it doesn't mean he sucks...

In Gardiner's defense, I think he is perfect for a Babcock system. Great skater, good vision, good size. From what I have seen, the Leafs are playing in a new system which doesn't suit their current players. I believe they will get there, and that Gardiner and especially Rielly will thrive. It took the Wings years to develop their system, but once it was in place, they can turn over the players and still be successful, akin to the Devils in their heydays, the Pats and the Steelers in the NFL, etc.

As a Sens fan, I hope the Leafs and the Sens can get back to the glory days of the 2000's and we'll finally get a shot to best the Buds in the playoffs.
- zopust

Cheers to that. I so miss the hate.

Until I see Gardiner play the same role or even remotely close to the same role as Doughty, I can't fathom putting them in the same category.

One literally plays half of the game, in all situations, and consistently plays against the top lines, and consistently performs as one of the best in the league.

Also, why doesn't Doughty have the same amount of "highlights" as Jake Gardiner when it comes to doing ridiculously dumb things? Is it possible that Gardiner is just more prone to it, and that's just another reason why they aren't comparable ?
- sbroads24

By dumb things, I would imagine you mean giveaways? Because ultimately that is what dumb things tend to lead to, in which case turn into goals.
Just an FYI, Doughty has 65 compared to Gardiner's 49.

I am not defending Gardiner as a a better hockey player - just speaking directly to your comment about "dumb things".

Yawn