Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Thoughts on Hiring a 26 Year-Old "Analytics" Guy to be an NHL GM
Author Message
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 5 @ 2:01 PM ET
With no pressure of ever winning a cup, I'd say it's a guaranteed success too
FourFeathers773
Joined: 12.02.2011

May 5 @ 2:01 PM ET
It's ground-breaking stuff.

Off the top of my head, I can barely think of any NHL GM that hasn't played at least 1000 hockey games.




STAN BOWMAN
VICE PRESIDENT / GENERAL MANAGER
Stan Bowman is in his 15th season with the Blackhawks and his first as Senior Vice President/General Manager, having been promoted to the position on Jan. 26, 2016. Bowman was originally named the ninth General Manager in Blackhawks history on July 14, 2009, after eight years in the Blackhawks Hockey Operations Department.

Bowman led the Blackhawks to their sixth Stanley Cup championship on June 15, 2015, becoming the first GM to win three titles in the salary cap era. In 2010, Bowman became the youngest GM in National Hockey League history to guide an organization to the championship, as the team ended a 49-year title drought. During his time at the helm of the Hockey Operations Department, Bowman has secured the Blackhawks’ core talent with long-term contract extensions, rebuilt the club’s prospect depth with multiple acclaimed draft classes and re-signed Head Coach Joel Quenneville to a contract extension.

Bowman and his father, Senior Advisor to Hockey Operations Scotty Bowman, are part of an elite group, becoming the 10th father-son GM tandem in the history of the NHL and just the fourth pair to have each of their names inscribed on the Stanley Cup.

Bowman originally joined the Blackhawks in 2000 and spent four seasons as Special Assistant to the General Manager before being promoted to Director of Hockey Operations, a role he served in for two years (2005-07). In his most recent role as Assistant General Manager, Bowman attended to the day-to-day administration of the Blackhawks Hockey Operations Department, including all CBA-related matters, such as contract negotiations, free agency, salary arbitration and player movement and assignment. He also tracked the progress of the Blackhawks prospects by working closely with the staff of the club’s minor-league affiliate in Rockford while assisting with player evaluation, prospect development and professional and amateur scouting.

Bowman was named to Crain’s Chicago Business “40 under 40” Class of 2010. The prestigious announcement is given out to 40 business executives under the age of 40 in Chicago each year and recognizes the tremendous accomplishments of the individuals chosen. He was inducted into the Chicagoland Sports Hall of Fame on Sept. 16, 2015.

Bowman was selected as a manager for Team North America at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, alongside Peter Chiarelli. In that role, he will help select the playing roster, coaching and support staff, as well as oversee tournament preparations and management, for the team comprised of U23 players from Canada and the United States.

Bowman graduated from the University of Notre Dame in 1995 with degrees in finance and computer applications. When he arrived at the Blackhawks in 2000, Bowman worked extensively on financial budgets and developed programs to track player movement and player evaluation. He was born in Montreal, where his father was coaching at the time.

Bowman and his wife, Suzanne, have two sons, Will and Camden, and a daughter, Graycen.

- Atomic Wedgie


A LOT of those hockey decisions come with recommendations or input from scotty bowman and barry smith
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

May 5 @ 2:03 PM ET
It's ground-breaking stuff.

Off the top of my head, I can barely think of any NHL GM that hasn't played at least 1000 hockey games.

- Atomic Wedgie


Add to Stan Bowman: Tim Murray, Dean Lombardi, Chuck Fletcher, Ray Shero, Jeff Gorton, Pierre Dorion, Doug Armstrong, Lou Lamoriello... and that's just guys with 0 professional experience. Brad Treliving, Peter Chiarelli, Jarmo Kekalainen, David Poile, and Ken Holland all with little to no NHL playing experience. But don't let facts distract from Tanner's narrative.
shack67
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: NS
Joined: 07.05.2015

May 5 @ 2:09 PM ET
Well Jim, the yotes have done exactly what you've been saying all along that they should do. And it's eating these guys up inside. They all sound like jealous children. You should be getting props not ridicule. Cheers
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:15 PM ET
I'm not going to get into a discussion of the merits of analytics with you for the 80th time, because it never goes anywhere. However, I would like to discuss this point. It seems a bit unfair, and can be painted in a light that it was the right move no matter what the outcome is.

That was not my point, at all.

So, if Chayka is a success, then everyone who is in favor of analytics can point to him and proclaim that analytics is the correct way to analyze a hockey team.

On the other hand, if he is "a disaster," then everyone who is in favor of analytics can chalk it up to other circumstances, like cash flow, interaction with other GMs, bad player pool to start with, etc.

How is this not contradictory to everything I write and believe? You seem to think that I would spin this in my favor no matter what happened. But, everything I try to write about is basically about using what information you have and making the best decisions. If - and it's not really possible, but - if this blows up and it turns out analytics are stupid and do not work, and there is definitive proof of it, I would change my mind. When new information comes in, you need to always change your mind.

However, had they hired a "standard" GM and he failed, the analytics community would be bashing it, saying they should have gotten an analytics guy instead.

I'd like to liken it to Michael Vick's first preseason game with the Eagles. If he played well, then it was clearly a sign that the signing was good. If he played poorly, it was okay, he was just a veteran getting ready for the season.

I get that they're in a "What have we got to lose?" mode, so they can only go from bad to slightly more bad at the worst, but it seems that, using the view you have taken, his tenure will be a success no matter whether the team flourishes or flounders.

- jmatchett383


All I was trying to say was that the Coyotes are already at a significant competitive disadvantage, and so they have nothing to lose by trying something new. That isn't to say that there's a built in excuse or whatever disingenuous thing you're trying to say I'm saying.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

May 5 @ 2:16 PM ET
For those of you keeping score:

- Coyotes first try to hire Dubas.

- Dubas turns down offer, citing that he's not nearly experienced enough to actually be a GM at the NHL level.

- Coyotes then hire their (at best) second choice, which logic would tell is us not as capable as Dubas.

Hmmmmmm...
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

May 5 @ 2:16 PM ET
Well Jim, the yotes have done exactly what you've been saying all along that they should do. And it's eating these guys up inside. They all sound like jealous children. You should be getting props not ridicule. Cheers
- shack67


Just because someone does what you want them to does not mean it's the right/wise thing to do. It just means they think like you do in that aspect.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

May 5 @ 2:17 PM ET
Well Jim, the yotes have done exactly what you've been saying all along that they should do. And it's eating these guys up inside. They all sound like jealous children. You should be getting props not ridicule. Cheers
- shack67


He should be getting props for what? Saying things like "I'll believe a 26 year old GM when I see it." and "I would be shocked, frankly, if Jackson isn't the next Coyotes GM. But if he isn't, and they give it to Chayka, then I will be both shocked and delighted"??

Tanner getting another prediction wrong isn't eating anyone up. People are just mocking his usual failure to pay attention to statistics that don't fit his narrative of how much he cares about statistics.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:17 PM ET
Basically you are saying anyone can be a GM if you surround him/her with the right people. I mean seriously, if Chayka steps aside and I become the GM it's practically the same thing!!!!
- The-O-G


Also not what I am saying.

I am saying that Chayka clearly has skills that are in demand and which, given the way the wind is blowing, it makes sense to develop and implement.

But then again, it is sort of what I'm saying, I guess, because any smart person who is a good communicator and good at sifting through data would make a fine GM if they surrounded themselves with the right people. I mean, if you look at any major company CEO, odds are they got their by being a CEO in a completely unrelated business.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

May 5 @ 2:18 PM ET
All I was trying to say was that the Coyotes are already at a significant competitive disadvantage, and so they have nothing to lose by trying something new. That isn't to say that there's a built in excuse or whatever disingenuous thing you're trying to say I'm saying.
- James_Tanner


Well if I misunderstood your wording, then I apologize.

I still think that the analytics community (not necessarily you) will spin this in a way that puts him/analytics in a positive light no matter how things work out. Still seems like a no-lose scenario for the community.
FourFeathers773
Joined: 12.02.2011

May 5 @ 2:19 PM ET
So they make Maloney the sacrificial lamb then give tippet a promotion and 5 year extension

Makes sense
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:22 PM ET
analytic guys dont care about winning championships
- James Tanner 2016 -

- DDM-Coga



I never said that, or implied it.

The point is to obviously win. But winning only matters on a visceral, emotional level and is an outcome, not a process, and so it's not good evaluating to give more credit to someone who has won.

For example, Bruce Boudreau is statistically worth adding a top six scoring forward, in terms of his impact on a team. There are lots of coaches who have won Cups who do not have his impact.

There are tons of great players who never won a Cup who are better than tons of players who have won.

All I was saying - and I'm confident all smart people would agree - is that evaluations based on who won a championship are poor. As a fan, player or whatever, I want to win championships. But as an evaluate and analyst, it's pretty important to understand the role luck and injuries play in who ultimately wins.
Newgod77
Boston Bruins
Location: IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

May 5 @ 2:22 PM ET
So the coyotes are going to value players who take 40' wrist shots now. Good stuff.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

May 5 @ 2:23 PM ET
Well if I misunderstood your wording, then I apologize.

I still think that the analytics community (not necessarily you) will spin this in a way that puts him/analytics in a positive light no matter how things work out. Still seems like a no-lose scenario for the community.

- jmatchett383

This is not just directed at Tanner, because there is a number of people with similar opinions, but when you day things like Championships are a bad way to measure success.....how can you ever lose?

Finishing last is considered smart, championships don't measure success.....what exactly measures failure?
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:23 PM ET
I personally am hoping he trades OEL in the first 6 months on the job.
That would be the best Tanner blog of all time

- DDM-Coga


I've even written before that this wouldn't be such a crazy move. You have one amazing players and zero good players on defense. It makes sense to at least see what he's worth.

Ultimately, I would probably keep him, but trading players who's peaks do not coincide with your team's peak is probably always at least something you should consider.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

May 5 @ 2:24 PM ET
So the coyotes are going to value players who take 40' wrist shots now. Good stuff.
- Newgod77

As we speak, Jason Blake is rummaging around in his garage to try to find his skates.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:24 PM ET
"You don't get mocked for trying to look beyond the traditional beliefs, Tanner.

You get mocked for your dogmatic adherence to what you read on a spreadsheet, while completely dismissing all other opinions.

It's hilariously ironic that you look down your nose at others for failing to consider other possibilities, yet at the same time refuse to consider that Gardiner might not be a superstar.

I can't wait for the first phone call between Lou and Chayka." quote from above not working

-----

This is exactly right. Analytics are very useful - but ignoring all the human aspects and the little details that go into every millisecond a player is no the ice is absurd.

- Njuice


People fail to realize that literally no one does this. People who are pro-analytics look way more into other things than people who are anti-analystics look into stats, and this I guarantee.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:27 PM ET
This is so misguided its not funny.

Maloney was made the scapegoat for a franchise with bad management and ZERO financial stability.

Maloney was able to turn the Vermette and Yandle trades into gold, not to mention turn around bring back Vermette months later. He got a former 1st round pick for Boedker. And he was able to get financial flexbility for the clubs bottom line by acquiring the Pronger contract

Problem is management and the league handcuffed Maloney by

A) have less than desirable pieces to trade and get value for. Everything he basically had worth trading for anything he did move, and for good returns. OEL the only exception and they obviously shouldnt trade him. Hard to bolster the franchise when the current roster is mostly crap

B) making Arizona completely undesirable to sign quality free agents. NOBODY wants to go to arizona willingly that wasnt already there or just looking for a continuation contract to stave off retirement. There is has been no stability of the franchise staying there in recent years and these players dont want to move their family to a place that they will have to leave in a year. Not to mention players know this team is in the gutter, TRYING to rebuild, and wont be competitive for some time. They also know they are broke and wont have the resources to bring in more talent to surround them and complete a playoff/cup competitive roster. If you are a desirable player, why sign in a dead end in the desert?

Yet this was all Maloneys fault. Brilliant!

- hawkeytalkman


Maloney was not made a scapegoat.

Don Maloney isolated himself from ownership and Tippett and the analytics department. He made moves that made no sense (bailing on Gormley, Trading Gagner for Grossmann, re-signing Vermette, giving away Stephen Elliott and John Scott, etc.) and which were not popular with the people who he was isolating himself from.

His best trade, Yandle for Duclair, is one I have heard from multiple people that ownership forced him to make and which he did not want to.


Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

May 5 @ 2:29 PM ET
People fail to realize that literally no one does this. People who are pro-analytics look way more into other things than people who are anti-analystics look into stats, and this I guarantee.
- James_Tanner

It's the same old straw man argument with you, Tanner.

Nobody under the age of 90 is "anti-analytics."

We are anti-viewing analytics to the exclusion of all other reason.

Not to mention anti-dismissing anyone who disagrees with you as not being intelligent enough to understand "advanced statistics."
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:29 PM ET
James what moves do you foresee the new GM making at the draft and free agency?

Has it ever come out what info he provided to Maloney that was largely ignored?

- rinaldo


I see the Coyotes going after a partner for OEL, and addressing their defense in general. But with so few players signed for next year, it's really wide open what they'll do. I expect them to pursue speed, puck moving ability and players who've shown the ability to drive possession.

As for what specifically Maloney ignored, one can only guess.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:31 PM ET
Great article James.

As a 24 year old man myself trying to navigate his ways up in the corporate world, this is a great story. I can only imagine what Chayka has already dealt with and will have to continue to deal with in regards to his age and where he has come from, but at the end of the day, the NHL is a bottom line business. If he can get results using whatever his limited budget and resources are, I'm sure that will all fade away in time. Best of luck to him

P.S.

Who should the Yotes pick defense wise with their first pick?

- PVL29


Thanks and best of luck. I don't know who they should pick as I really havne't studied up on all the non-top 3 guys yet.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:34 PM ET
Ok I stand corrected.

However, it's still a gimmick at best for a franchise that's becoming more laughable with all its issues around the club. Off the ice and on.

IMO the single most important role a General Manager has, is to build from within, to draft and develop a talented core of players. What does this kid know about talent evaluation and drafting 18 year old kids? Amateur scouting. Pro scouting. What does he know about managing a salary cap? The CBA? What does he know about trading for the right NHL player to complement his group without some guy, with more experience than he's been alive, bending him over?

- LeftCoaster


Like I said in the article, the moves of "experienced" GMs are more often than not terrible. Chayka gives you the chance to build a team using new methods of analysis. Personally, once he has some clout, I could see him doing away with scouting, or at least doing less of it, as people have measured scouts recommendations vs. predictive model recommendations and scouts are too biased in general to be more than occasionally effective. The rest isn't stuff he has to know inside out, I mean, everyone has people they rely on and the Coyotes are preaching a more collaborative approach.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 5 @ 2:35 PM ET
I seem to be detecting a spike in corsi in a certain zone for me
- hawkeytalkman


the D-zone
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:37 PM ET
Add to Stan Bowman: Tim Murray, Dean Lombardi, Chuck Fletcher, Ray Shero, Jeff Gorton, Pierre Dorion, Doug Armstrong, Lou Lamoriello... and that's just guys with 0 professional experience. Brad Treliving, Peter Chiarelli, Jarmo Kekalainen, David Poile, and Ken Holland all with little to no NHL playing experience. But don't let facts distract from Tanner's narrative.
- Antilles


Whether or not every single guy is an ex-player is beside the point. Most are, and it's few who don't have some kind of family connection to the game.

I was not trying to say this is the first example of a guy getting into the NHL without some form of nepitism or inside access, but you have to admit that that is the norm, and so it is significant that he has not only done so, but done it at the age of 26.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

May 5 @ 2:38 PM ET
Well Jim, the yotes have done exactly what you've been saying all along that they should do. And it's eating these guys up inside. They all sound like jealous children. You should be getting props not ridicule. Cheers
- shack67


Hey man, it's much appreciated, but you know how hockeybuzz can be, so i'm not too hurt by the vague insults of people who aren't even making a slight effort to understand what I'm trying to say.

Thanks though.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next