James Tanner: Thoughts on Hiring a 26 Year-Old "Analytics" Guy to be an NHL GM Coyotes Hire John Chayka

Even though this is your second blog today on the subject, it's still a terrible decision!

Even though this is your second blog today on the subject, it's still a terrible decision!
- LeftCoaster

The first one wasn't a blog. Just putting out the news that it happened.

The Coyotes are in a situation where they have everything to gain and nothing to lose. If Chayka is a disaster, then who cares? It’s not like they were already killing it and tore down everything good just to make a change.
- James_Tanner

I'm not going to get into a discussion of the merits of analytics with you for the 80th time, because it never goes anywhere. However, I would like to discuss this point. It seems a bit unfair, and can be painted in a light that it was the right move no matter what the outcome is.

So, if Chayka is a success, then everyone who is in favor of analytics can point to him and proclaim that analytics is the correct way to analyze a hockey team.

On the other hand, if he is "a disaster," then everyone who is in favor of analytics can chalk it up to other circumstances, like cash flow, interaction with other GMs, bad player pool to start with, etc.

However, had they hired a "standard" GM and he failed, the analytics community would be bashing it, saying they should have gotten an analytics guy instead.

I'd like to liken it to Michael Vick's first preseason game with the Eagles. If he played well, then it was clearly a sign that the signing was good. If he played poorly, it was okay, he was just a veteran getting ready for the season.

I get that they're in a "What have we got to lose?" mode, so they can only go from bad to slightly more bad at the worst, but it seems that, using the view you have taken, his tenure will be a success no matter whether the team flourishes or flounders.

Well, I guess Coyotes can be the leagues tester for analytic GM's.

Basically you are saying anyone can be a GM if you surround him/her with the right people. I mean seriously, if Chayka steps aside and I become the GM it's practically the same thing!!!!

James Tanner: Thoughts on Hiring a 26 Year-Old "Analytics" Guy to be an NHL GM
Coyotes Hire John Chayka
- James_Tanner

The true story is the 'Yotes are too cheap to hire a real GM, so they are using someone already on the payroll to save some cash.

analytic guys dont care about winning championships
- James Tanner 2016 -

this guy wasn't even their first choice apparently. Any thoughts on that James?

You forgot to mention that this will not change the perceived monetary value of player performance, thus creating an equal opportunity for this to blow up in Arizona's face. This is, indeed, a great thing for the NHL. The overuse and reliance on analytics will come to a screeching halt in the next 5 years if the Coyotes don't have success. The saving grace will be the new passing and skating statistics, which will prove that shot based stats were nothing but smoke for the real driving force of possession.

I'm not going to get into a discussion of the merits of analytics with you for the 80th time, because it never goes anywhere. However, I would like to discuss this point. It seems a bit unfair, and can be painted in a light that it was the right move no matter what the outcome is.

So, if Chayka is a success, then everyone who is in favor of analytics can point to him and proclaim that analytics is the correct way to analyze a hockey team.

On the other hand, if he is "a disaster," then everyone who is in favor of analytics can chalk it up to other circumstances, like cash flow, interaction with other GMs, bad player pool to start with, etc.

However, had they hired a "standard" GM and he failed, the analytics community would be bashing it, saying they should have gotten an analytics guy instead.

I'd like to liken it to Michael Vick's first preseason game with the Eagles. If he played well, then it was clearly a sign that the signing was good. If he played poorly, it was okay, he was just a veteran getting ready for the season.

I get that they're in a "What have we got to lose?" mode, so they can only go from bad to slightly more bad at the worst, but it seems that, using the view you have taken, his tenure will be a success no matter whether the team flourishes or flounders.
- jmatchett383

Haha great points! Tanner is already preparing for when Chayka crashes and burns, never to return to the NHL again

It's a real victory, this hiring is, to those of use who get mocked en masse for trying to look beyond the traditional beliefs about our sport that are ingrained in all of us and the way we think. You'd think this would end the mocking of things like Corsi, but I doubt it. Who cares anyway though, I guess. The important thing is that the Coyotes just did a really cool thing
- James_Tanner

You don't get mocked for trying to look beyond the traditional beliefs, Tanner.

You get mocked for your dogmatic adherence to what you read on a spreadsheet, while completely dismissing all other opinions.

It's hilariously ironic that you look down your nose at others for failing to consider other possibilities, yet at the same time refuse to consider that Gardiner might not be a superstar.

I can't wait for the first phone call between Lou and Chayka.

analytic guys dont care about winning championships
- James Tanner 2016 -
- DDM-Coga

Are we doing Anecdotes again???

I get that they're in a "What have we got to lose?" mode, so they can only go from bad to slightly more bad at the worst, but it seems that, using the view you have taken, his tenure will be a success no matter whether the team flourishes or flounders.
- jmatchett383

Don't worry - whatever ends up happening, Tanner will have statistics that prove he was a success.

Don't worry - whatever ends up happening, Tanner will have statistics that prove he was a success.
- Atomic Wedgie

I personally am hoping he trades OEL in the first 6 months on the job.
That would be the best Tanner blog of all time

"You don't get mocked for trying to look beyond the traditional beliefs, Tanner.

You get mocked for your dogmatic adherence to what you read on a spreadsheet, while completely dismissing all other opinions.

It's hilariously ironic that you look down your nose at others for failing to consider other possibilities, yet at the same time refuse to consider that Gardiner might not be a superstar.

I can't wait for the first phone call between Lou and Chayka." quote from above not working

-----

This is exactly right. Analytics are very useful - but ignoring all the human aspects and the little details that go into every millisecond a player is no the ice is absurd.

The experience of Don Maloney gave you a full season of Klaus Dahlbeck, Zbynek Michalek and Nick Grossmann as half an NHL team’s defense.

This is so misguided its not funny.

Maloney was made the scapegoat for a franchise with bad management and ZERO financial stability.

Maloney was able to turn the Vermette and Yandle trades into gold, not to mention turn around bring back Vermette months later. He got a former 1st round pick for Boedker. And he was able to get financial flexbility for the clubs bottom line by acquiring the Pronger contract

Problem is management and the league handcuffed Maloney by

A) have less than desirable pieces to trade and get value for. Everything he basically had worth trading for anything he did move, and for good returns. OEL the only exception and they obviously shouldnt trade him. Hard to bolster the franchise when the current roster is mostly crap

B) making Arizona completely undesirable to sign quality free agents. NOBODY wants to go to arizona willingly that wasnt already there or just looking for a continuation contract to stave off retirement. There is has been no stability of the franchise staying there in recent years and these players dont want to move their family to a place that they will have to leave in a year. Not to mention players know this team is in the gutter, TRYING to rebuild, and wont be competitive for some time. They also know they are broke and wont have the resources to bring in more talent to surround them and complete a playoff/cup competitive roster. If you are a desirable player, why sign in a dead end in the desert?

Yet this was all Maloneys fault. Brilliant!

Don't worry - whatever ends up happening, Tanner will have statistics that prove he was a success.
- Atomic Wedgie

Well championships are flukes, goalies are not part of teams, and faceoffs don't matter. So as long as they focus on the other parts of the game he will be a success!

This is so misguided its not funny.

Maloney was made the scapegoat for a franchise with bad management and ZERO financial stability.

Maloney was able to turn the Vermette and Yandle trades into gold, not to mention turn around bring back Vermette months later. He got a former 1st round pick for Boedker. And he was able to get financial flexbility for the clubs bottom line by acquiring the Pronger contract

Problem is management and the league handcuffed Maloney by

A) have less than desirable pieces to trade and get value for. Everything he basically had worth trading for anything he did move, and for good returns. OEL the only exception and they obviously shouldnt trade him. Hard to bolster the franchise when the current roster is mostly crap

B) making Arizona completely undesirable to sign quality free agents. NOBODY wants to go to arizona willingly that wasnt already there or just looking for a continuation contract to stave off retirement. There is has been no stability of the franchise staying there in recent years and these players dont want to move their family to a place that they will have to leave in a year. Not to mention players know this team is in the gutter, TRYING to rebuild, and wont be competitive for some time. They also know they are broke and wont have the resources to bring in more talent to surround them and complete a playoff/cup competitive roster. If you are a desirable player, why sign in a dead end in the desert?

Yet this was all Maloneys fault. Brilliant!
- hawkeytalkman

Also, watch some of the talent that Maloney brought into the pipeline start to develop nicely in 2-3 years and Tanner gives all credit to Chayka for a job well done and proving all the analytics doubters wrong

time stamp this post for the future. it will come in handy

James what moves do you foresee the new GM making at the draft and free agency?

Has it ever come out what info he provided to Maloney that was largely ignored?

"The reasons to believe going further than anyone else has yet to go with analytics might give you an edge over other teams are as follows"

Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to look more like?

Great article James.

As a 24 year old man myself trying to navigate his ways up in the corporate world, this is a great story. I can only imagine what Chayka has already dealt with and will have to continue to deal with in regards to his age and where he has come from, but at the end of the day, the NHL is a bottom line business. If he can get results using whatever his limited budget and resources are, I'm sure that will all fade away in time. Best of luck to him

P.S.

Who should the Yotes pick defense wise with their first pick?

The first one wasn't a blog. Just putting out the news that it happened.
- James_Tanner

Ok I stand corrected.

However, it's still a gimmick at best for a franchise that's becoming more laughable with all its issues around the club. Off the ice and on.

IMO the single most important role a General Manager has, is to build from within, to draft and develop a talented core of players. What does this kid know about talent evaluation and drafting 18 year old kids? Amateur scouting. Pro scouting. What does he know about managing a salary cap? The CBA? What does he know about trading for the right NHL player to complement his group without some guy, with more experience than he's been alive, bending him over?

If you’re smart enough to get where he has gotten himself, you’re smart enough to realize that you don’t know everything.

This and a decent amount of this blog pulled from the arguments to elect Donald Trump President.

Apparently, you can only really know the game if you've played it and there in lies the biggest discrepancy/grudge/sticking point between what we will have to call, for lack of a better term, the "Analytics Community" and the "Mainstream NHL Community."

John Chayka is the perfect guy to cross this divide then, because he is a guy who played hockey to Junior A and then started his own analytics company that led to him being hired to the NHL to head up the Coyotes' analytics department.
- James_Tanner

It's ground-breaking stuff.

Off the top of my head, I can barely think of any NHL GM that hasn't played at least 1000 hockey games.




STAN BOWMAN
VICE PRESIDENT / GENERAL MANAGER
Stan Bowman is in his 15th season with the Blackhawks and his first as Senior Vice President/General Manager, having been promoted to the position on Jan. 26, 2016. Bowman was originally named the ninth General Manager in Blackhawks history on July 14, 2009, after eight years in the Blackhawks Hockey Operations Department.

Bowman led the Blackhawks to their sixth Stanley Cup championship on June 15, 2015, becoming the first GM to win three titles in the salary cap era. In 2010, Bowman became the youngest GM in National Hockey League history to guide an organization to the championship, as the team ended a 49-year title drought. During his time at the helm of the Hockey Operations Department, Bowman has secured the Blackhawks’ core talent with long-term contract extensions, rebuilt the club’s prospect depth with multiple acclaimed draft classes and re-signed Head Coach Joel Quenneville to a contract extension.

Bowman and his father, Senior Advisor to Hockey Operations Scotty Bowman, are part of an elite group, becoming the 10th father-son GM tandem in the history of the NHL and just the fourth pair to have each of their names inscribed on the Stanley Cup.

Bowman originally joined the Blackhawks in 2000 and spent four seasons as Special Assistant to the General Manager before being promoted to Director of Hockey Operations, a role he served in for two years (2005-07). In his most recent role as Assistant General Manager, Bowman attended to the day-to-day administration of the Blackhawks Hockey Operations Department, including all CBA-related matters, such as contract negotiations, free agency, salary arbitration and player movement and assignment. He also tracked the progress of the Blackhawks prospects by working closely with the staff of the club’s minor-league affiliate in Rockford while assisting with player evaluation, prospect development and professional and amateur scouting.

Bowman was named to Crain’s Chicago Business “40 under 40” Class of 2010. The prestigious announcement is given out to 40 business executives under the age of 40 in Chicago each year and recognizes the tremendous accomplishments of the individuals chosen. He was inducted into the Chicagoland Sports Hall of Fame on Sept. 16, 2015.

Bowman was selected as a manager for Team North America at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, alongside Peter Chiarelli. In that role, he will help select the playing roster, coaching and support staff, as well as oversee tournament preparations and management, for the team comprised of U23 players from Canada and the United States.

Bowman graduated from the University of Notre Dame in 1995 with degrees in finance and computer applications. When he arrived at the Blackhawks in 2000, Bowman worked extensively on financial budgets and developed programs to track player movement and player evaluation. He was born in Montreal, where his father was coaching at the time.

Bowman and his wife, Suzanne, have two sons, Will and Camden, and a daughter, Graycen.