People who are pro-analytics look way more into other things than people who are anti-analystics look into stats, and this I guarantee.
- James_Tanner

I can't argue with this, but I have a reason that I (personally) don't look into stats.

It's because some people force-feed them down your throat and post them ad nauseum that I don't have to look into them to know what the stats say, I can just read it on a message board. I understand how they're complied (in a nutshell) and what they mean, but I don't have to look into them because people post them for me.

Like people who say things like "Keith Yandle is a top-3 NHL defenseman." I didn't need to look at the stats to verify that, I accepted that, analytically, he was, even though I disagreed with the conclusion.

For those of you keeping score:

- Coyotes first try to hire Dubas.

- Dubas turns down offer, citing that he's not nearly experienced enough to actually be a GM at the NHL level.

- Coyotes then hire their (at best) second choice, which logic would tell is us not as capable as Dubas.

Hmmmmmm...
- Atomic Wedgie

Don't read one thing into what Dubas said. It's not like he's going to say the truth, "I am not going to take a job in Arizona when I am pretty much a 99% lock to replace Lou when he retires."

the D-zone
- YuenglingJagr

This is not just directed at Tanner, because there is a number of people with similar opinions, but when you day things like Championships are a bad way to measure success.....how can you ever lose?

Finishing last is considered smart, championships don't measure success.....what exactly measures failure?
- sbroads24

You measure success by being competitive every year.

Who is more successful, the St.Louis Blues who've made the Playoffs in, I think, all but one or two seasons out of twenty years, or the Carolina Hurricanes who fluked their way into the cheapest Stanley Cup ever?

I know it matters when you win. And maybe fans shouldn't care if a team loses because of bad luck. But, if you want to make decisions that are better than the other team, you need to take winning out of your evaluation processes.

It's just like why we value shots more than goals. Yes, goals are awesome and you need to score them to win, but they come about in all sorts of random ways. In order to evaluate who is a better player, you need to look at more than just goals. Was he the world's luckiest 30 goal scorer ever? Someone literally has to have that title, so you better look at his other stats and find out if it's him before you allot too much of your cap to him.

It just blows my mind that people continually think I am/ we are just using one stat to rate players when we are not the once making reductive evaluations. People say advanced stats are BS, and mock Corsi, and yet, all they look at is goals, assists, +/- and time on ice. We look at a dozen. Maybe more.

The argument of reductive people seems to be that we are reductive and, frankly, I find that confusing.

Don't read one thing into what Dubas said. It's not like he's going to say the truth, "I am not going to take a job in Arizona when I am pretty much a 99% lock to replace Lou when he retires."
- James_Tanner

It's a fantastic story that you guys love to repeat over and over.

You have absolutely nothing to back up this feeling, but hey, keep saying it.

You know who else was guaranteed the GM duties?

Bill Watters.

It's a fantastic story that you guys love to repeat over and over.

You have absolutely nothing to back up this feeling, but hey, keep saying it.

You know who else was guaranteed the GM duties?

Bill Watters.
- Atomic Wedgie

Oh god, Bill Watters is literally the worst.

It's a fantastic story that you guys love to repeat over and over.

You have absolutely nothing to back up this feeling, but hey, keep saying it.

You know who else was guaranteed the GM duties?

Bill Watters.
- Atomic Wedgie

Also, dont rule out the possibility of bringing in Izodman from Tampa Bay if he decides to leave after his deal is up.

The Babcock and Shanahan connection is pretty strong with Stevie (also Team Canada based out of Toronto in general). Everyone thinks he will go back to Detroit, but if Holland remains stubborn and refuses to step aside as GM, could open the door for the captain to go to Tronna

Oh god, Bill Watters is literally the worst.
- James_Tanner

That's not what his mom tells him.

Also, dont rule out the possibility of bringing in Izodman from Tampa Bay if he decides to leave after his deal is up.

The Babcock and Shanahan connection is pretty strong with Stevie (also Team Canada based out of Toronto in general). Everyone thinks he will go back to Detroit, but if Holland remains stubborn and refuses to step aside as GM, could open the door for the captain to go to Tronna
- hawkeytalkman

Here it comes, Toronto front office:

Shanahan: President
Lou: SVP of Hockey Ops
Yzerman: General Manager, VP of Hockey Operations
Dubas: Assistant General Manager
Babcock: Head Coach

Tronna rebuilds, everyone swims in money

Best of luck to this young fellow. I'd like to see what his first splash in Arizona will be. If this kid knows his stuff I can see some of the old boys getting swindled trying to take advantage of him.

I also believe realistically he will not be running things much different from some of the other successful clubs. It will provide some confirmation of models that are already being followed.

Problem is, he does not have the money to accelerate his rebuild via the maple leafs method. And this will be a rebuild. Domi, Duclair, OEL and your goalie who showed some promise this year do not a championship make.

You measure success by being competitive every year.

Who is more successful, the St.Louis Blues who've made the Playoffs in, I think, all but one or two seasons out of twenty years, or the Carolina Hurricanes who fluked their way into the cheapest Stanley Cup ever?

I know it matters when you win. And maybe fans shouldn't care if a team loses because of bad luck. But, if you want to make decisions that are better than the other team, you need to take winning out of your evaluation processes.

It's just like why we value shots more than goals. Yes, goals are awesome and you need to score them to win, but they come about in all sorts of random ways. In order to evaluate who is a better player, you need to look at more than just goals. Was he the world's luckiest 30 goal scorer ever? Someone literally has to have that title, so you better look at his other stats and find out if it's him before you allot too much of your cap to him.

It just blows my mind that people continually think I am/ we are just using one stat to rate players when we are not the once making reductive evaluations. People say advanced stats are BS, and mock Corsi, and yet, all they look at is goals, assists, +/- and time on ice. We look at a dozen. Maybe more.

The argument of reductive people seems to be that we are reductive and, frankly, I find that confusing.
- James_Tanner

I think my biggest beef with how players are analyzed is how we can extrapolate ones performance over years to either make someone look better, or worse.

Kadri is a perfect example. You are 100% correct, he was unlucky this season. Shot at an incredibly low %. However if he were on a team that was competing for the cup, or playoffs no one should care about what should have happened, only what actually did.

Now again, I'm not saying you can only judge a player based on the current season, it's obvious to suggest he will produce more next year, however saying he DID have a good year is what I have an issue with.

Same with Sutter when he scored 21 last year. Was it lucky? Sure, does that mean we bury a guy because he had a career year? No

Here it comes, Toronto front office:

Shanahan: President
Lou: SVP of Hockey Ops
Yzerman: General Manager, VP of Hockey Operations
Dubas: Assistant General Manager
Babcock: Head Coach

Tronna rebuilds, everyone swims in money
- hawkeytalkman

I do not want Yzerman anywhere near the Leafs. I'd almost rather have Bill Watters.

Maloney was not made a scapegoat.

Don Maloney isolated himself from ownership and Tippett and the analytics department. He made moves that made no sense (bailing on Gormley, Trading Gagner for Grossmann, re-signing Vermette, giving away Stephen Elliott and John Scott, etc.) and which were not popular with the people who he was isolating himself from.

His best trade, Yandle for Duclair, is one I have heard from multiple people that ownership forced him to make and which he did not want to.
- James_Tanner

you just cant let go with gormley. good stuff. So when the avs bail on him, they already have really, then what's the excuse?

so if the new GM quantifies that gormley isn't a good nhl dman will you then believe it?

I do not want Yzerman anywhere near the Leafs. I'd almost rather have Bill Watters.
- James_Tanner

Its a good thing youre a coyotes blogger then

I do not want Yzerman anywhere near the Leafs. I'd almost rather have Bill Watters.
- James_Tanner

Mike Gillis is available

you just cant let go with gormley. good stuff. So when the avs bail on him, they already have really, then what's the excuse?

so if the new GM quantifies that gormley isn't a good nhl dman will you then believe it?
- rinaldo

It's not whether or not Gormley is a good defenseman. He might not have the chops for the NHL.

My problem was and is that Maloney basically punted him because he got injured. I see no need for a team think on D to bail on a 21 yr old 1st round pick who played well before his injury.

I've even written before that this wouldn't be such a crazy move. You have one amazing players and zero good players on defense. It makes sense to at least see what he's worth.

Ultimately, I would probably keep him, but trading players who's peaks do not coincide with your team's peak is probably always at least something you should consider.
- James_Tanner

The case for trading OEL makes sense in full rebuild mode. Their top other players are Domi, Duclair, Dvorak, Strome so if they can turn OEL into younger A+ assets it could be a good idea. Would they trade OEL for Rielly and say Connor Brown? As a Leafer I would pass. But if coyotes want to win in 3 years that type of deal might make sense.

People fail to realize that literally no one does this. People who are pro-analytics look way more into other things than people who are anti-analystics look into stats, and this I guarantee.
- James_Tanner

Nobody except for you of course. See: Every comment about Kadri this season.

It's not whether or not Gormley is a good defenseman. He might not have the chops for the NHL.

My problem was and is that Maloney basically punted him because he got injured. I see no need for a team think on D to bail on a 21 yr old 1st round pick who played well before his injury.
- James_Tanner

ok he gave up on him. In his eyes he determined he cant cut it. So he made a choice to move him. Clearly his value around the league was next to nothing based on the return.

The avs then waived him and he wasn't claimed. So maybe Maloney was right no?

Is it also possible he was moved for other reason and Arizona had to move on? Neitherof us know that answer.

ok he gave up on him. In his eyes he determined he cant cut it. So he made a choice to move him. Clearly his value around the league was next to nothing based on the return.

The avs then waived him and he wasn't claimed. So maybe Maloney was right no?

Is it also possible he was moved for other reason and Arizona had to move on? Neitherof us know that answer.
- rinaldo

It's important to know how these things work: Arizona cuts ties with him, allegedly they didn't like how he dealt with his injury, and then Colorado does too. Even though both teams are run by inept old-school people who shouldn't be running hockey teams, he starts to get a reputatation and people are like "if AZ and COL cut him, he must suck."

Now, he might very well suck. But that is how these things tend to work, so he might not.

It's important to know how these things work: Arizona cuts ties with him, allegedly they didn't like how he dealt with his injury, and then Colorado does too. Even though both teams are run by inept old-school people who shouldn't be running hockey teams, he starts to get a reputatation and people are like "if AZ and COL cut him, he must suck."

Now, he might very well suck. But that is how these things tend to work, so he might not.
- James_Tanner

you really believe that don't you? wouldn't it be the opposite as both franchises haven't done anything in how long?

So then why did all other 29 team pass on him when he was on waivers? are they also run by inept old-school people who shouldn't be running hockey teams?

give your head a shake, he turned out to be a bad draft pick and bust. that's it. it happens.

you really believe that don't you? wouldn't it be the opposite as both franchises haven't done anything in how long?

So then why did all other 29 team pass on him when he was on waivers? are they also run by inept old-school people who shouldn't be running hockey teams?

give your head a shake, he turned out to be a bad draft pick and bust. that's it. it happens.
- rinaldo

just curious, did you read his line after the part you bolded?

Don't read one thing into what Dubas said. It's not like he's going to say the truth, "I am not going to take a job in Arizona when I am pretty much a 99% lock to replace Lou when he retires."
- James_Tanner

And on top of that the Leafs said Arizona never asked permission to talk to Dubas and Dubas said nobody from Arizona talked to him. That was another media made up story because TSN and Rogers have nothing better to do.

But I do believe that Dubas is happy with the Leafs, why not stick with a team that in 2-3 years when he becomes GM will be amazing. He'll already have put his stamp on the team and he'll have a ton of assets to work with.

just curious, did you read his line after the part you bolded?
- mehetmet

yep, what am I missing?

you really believe that don't you? wouldn't it be the opposite as both franchises haven't done anything in how long?

So then why did all other 29 team pass on him when he was on waivers? are they also run by inept old-school people who shouldn't be running hockey teams?

give your head a shake, he turned out to be a bad draft pick and bust. that's it. it happens.
- rinaldo

The point you don't seem to be grasping is one of perspective. If Avs and Yotes pass on a guy, since they suck, and he can't make their team, it might seem that he isn't worth a look.

Furthermore, he probably has a "reputation" after getting in a fight with management and could be seen as "difficult" which happens a lot in hockey.

I am not arguing that this is the case, I'm arguing that it's a good possibility.

Perception plays a massive part in scouting and team building, and one way to get better is to look at things like this and see if you can't score some bargains.

As a 21 year old puck moving defenseman with enough upside to be a first round pick just a few years ago, I wouldn't necessarily give up on him. It's entirely possible that he does suck. But a team dressing three of the worst D in hockey shouldn't be bailing on guys.