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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Thoughts on Hiring a 26 Year-Old "Analytics" Guy to be an NHL GM
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Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

May 5 @ 4:10 PM ET
Best of luck to this young fellow. I'd like to see what his first splash in Arizona will be. If this kid knows his stuff I can see some of the old boys getting swindled trying to take advantage of him.

I also believe realistically he will not be running things much different from some of the other successful clubs. It will provide some confirmation of models that are already being followed.

Problem is, he does not have the money to accelerate his rebuild via the maple leafs method. And this will be a rebuild. Domi, Duclair, OEL and your goalie who showed some promise this year do not a championship make.

- MarkStoned


Every team has a stat guy, not too much swindling will be happening IMO

You draft proper..develop proper and sign the right UFA's.

rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

May 5 @ 4:15 PM ET
The point you don't seem to be grasping is one of perspective. If Avs and Yotes pass on a guy, since they suck, and he can't make their team, it might seem that he isn't worth a look.

Furthermore, he probably has a "reputation" after getting in a fight with management and could be seen as "difficult" which happens a lot in hockey.

I am not arguing that this is the case, I'm arguing that it's a good possibility.

Perception plays a massive part in scouting and team building, and one way to get better is to look at things like this and see if you can't score some bargains.

As a 21 year old puck moving defenseman with enough upside to be a first round pick just a few years ago, I wouldn't necessarily give up on him. It's entirely possible that he does suck. But a team dressing three of the worst D in hockey shouldn't be bailing on guys.

- James_Tanner

I am grasping everything just fine.

1. Don’t agree with that at all. Because those 2 teams passed on them others will? That’s garbage and I highly doubt any team is run that way. That’s why they have their own staff to evaluate. As I said when a team like Arizona cuts you I actually look harder at the guy and give him the benefit of the doubt.

2. Agree on the 2nd paragraph. That happens.

3. No proof at all it is a good possibility. Though I guess you can argue it.

4. Of course you have to score bargains. Obviously no other team thought it was worth even a flier to look at him. that speaks volumes to me.

5. You may not give up him which is fine. Others have. Plenty of players have been left for dead a few years after they are drafted and never play again; just not good enough. Maybe just maybe they realized they made a mistake and cut their losses. Maybe he gets it together. Doubt it though.

13sundin13
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 06.29.2006

May 5 @ 4:38 PM ET
It is an important move because it's an indication that the NHL is moving in a different direction. But he has yet to prove that "analytics guys" are able to translate their data and theoretical projections into consistent real world success. No doubt advanced stats are a great resource, but nobody has yet to prove that experience and game knowledge is something of the past.

Personally I think experience will always be a big part of NHL management because it's a big part of every business so to say it doesn't matter in favour of analytics is incorrect. I'm really looking forward to seeing what Chayka can do.
Njuice
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.21.2013

May 5 @ 5:17 PM ET
It is an important move because it's an indication that the NHL is moving in a different direction. But he has yet to prove that "analytics guys" are able to translate their data and theoretical projections into consistent real world success. No doubt advanced stats are a great resource, but nobody has yet to prove that experience and game knowledge is something of the past.

Personally I think experience will always be a big part of NHL management because it's a big part of every business so to say it doesn't matter in favour of analytics is incorrect. I'm really looking forward to seeing what Chayka can do.

- 13sundin13


You were right, you need to use both. I'm a number nerd but i would never put a number nerd who never played at least AAA hockey at the helm of my team. Unless of course that person rad up on Hockey strategies, skills, systems and coached their way up. If you don't know what puck support means our the value of heart and effort than you are doomed. This kid played junior A so he gets it.
JKSoule
Joined: 04.22.2015

May 5 @ 5:27 PM ET
During the GM meetings, they discuss what's good and bad about the game and make changes.. To me this signing is a direction that could put non hockey players into roles that influence the game in one way or another.. Do you want to talk about boring hockey? Talk to an analytical guy! Or watch the players that dominate the analytics.. Ussually pretty boring too!
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

May 5 @ 5:47 PM ET
90+ comments later...just cancel the coyotes
Fan101
New York Islanders
Location: United States, NY
Joined: 07.08.2007

May 5 @ 6:26 PM ET
Brian Cashman became Yankees GM at age 30 so not totally unprecedented. Being 26 does make him not far removed from his players and prospects.

If it doesn't work out, could make for a great movie. Maybe the debut for Justin Bieber's acting career. Isn't he Canadian?
tomburton99
New York Rangers
Location: NYR distrust, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2009

May 5 @ 6:36 PM ET
Brian Cashman became Yankees GM at age 30 so not totally unprecedented. Being 26 does make him not far removed from his players and prospects.

If it doesn't work out, could make for a great movie. Maybe the debut for Justin Bieber's acting career. Isn't he Canadian?

- Fan101

Brian Cashman sucks. Terrible example. Look at the teams he built after he didn't have Paul O'Neil, Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams as base when they picked and scouted by Gene Michael's staff.
GERBE!!!75PTS
San Jose Sharks
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA
Joined: 02.11.2009

May 5 @ 7:54 PM ET
Austin Matthews is already a leaf
Vanoxy
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov!!!!
Joined: 06.26.2014

May 5 @ 11:24 PM ET
Brian Cashman sucks. Terrible example. Look at the teams he built after he didn't have Paul O'Neil, Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams as base when they picked and scouted by Gene Michael's staff.
- tomburton99



Theo Epstein would have been a better example. Just 28 when he took over, revamped the Red Sox roster and won a championship 2 years later.

Although both The Yanks and Sox are way different than The Yotes. The first 2 have unlimited budgets vs a shoestring budget in AZ.
Aerchon
Joined: 10.14.2011

May 6 @ 12:02 AM ET
All analytics are useless out of context. Aka useless without watching each and every game possible in the league.

Traditional stats and new age analysis.

Weak goaltending. Puck luck. There is just too many variables to arbitrarily use any combination of analytics.

Eakins was a huge analytics guy and over used them to the detriment of the team.

I will be curious how/if this has any effect to the on ice product.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 6 @ 8:36 AM ET
If this guy truly is an analytics first guy, then he won't be a very good GM. If uses analytics with the proper weight, and instead is an actual hockey guy, who has added analytics, and is willing to listen to council from more experienced hockey professionals, then he has a shot at it.

I got a kick out of the comments on experience in the bog. Name a few experienced guys who were unsuccessful, and then state "who cares about experience" while ignoring the countless of successful experienced guys.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 6 @ 8:52 AM ET
Like I said in the article, the moves of "experienced" GMs are more often than not terrible. Chayka gives you the chance to build a team using new methods of analysis. Personally, once he has some clout, I could see him doing away with scouting, or at least doing less of it, as people have measured scouts recommendations vs. predictive model recommendations and scouts are too biased in general to be more than occasionally effective. The rest isn't stuff he has to know inside out, I mean, everyone has people they rely on and the Coyotes are preaching a more collaborative approach.
- James_Tanner


I don't think there could be a better example of how much you overvalue analytics, and quite frankly don't understand the role they have. All of the other Western Conference teams hope that is true, because if the Coyotes do away with scouting, or do less of it, they won't have to worry much about the coyotes. I wonder what people have been doing the measuring? It's like listening to the ads for one vacuum cleaner company that shows how much better their product is! Science, despite your beliefs, is not absolute.
rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

May 6 @ 9:31 AM ET
I hope this guy can develop a model that measures heart and a balls to the wall type of play/attitude.

If the guy is smart and no reason to believe he isn't he will utilize everyone around him and make good choices. they may not pan out but good choices. I have a hard time believing he will only use analytics to make moves for his team. that would be a death sentence.
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