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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: HHOF, Pirri, Latta, Prospects, Alumni and More
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jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 28 @ 12:05 PM ET
He isn't, so it's a moot point.
- MikesPillBottle

But its not a moot point at all..

When Simmer signed his deal the value of contracts was completely differen.t
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 28 @ 12:05 PM ET
Hey guys, just read a fantastic POV article from the Players Tribune by Pascal Laberge.

Might be my favorite prospect to pull for. Do yourselves a favor and read it. Awesome stuff.

http://www.theplayerstrib...-victoriaville-nhl-draft/
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 28 @ 12:05 PM ET
Means nothing to you, means something to me. Agree to disagree.
- Glak18



History of contract negotiations in the NHL is what my opinion is based on. RFA negotiations with good players frequently last into the Summer.
sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

Jun 28 @ 12:05 PM ET
i would offer sheet seth jones 1000 times before i thought about offer sheeting trouba
- YuenglingJagr


amen
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 28 @ 12:06 PM ET
What would you pay?

I would refuse to pay somebody a big contract after one true breakout year. I'd rather go to arbitration and risk losing him as a UFA, instead of signing him and it being another poopty contract.

I would love to keep the guy long term if he plays like he did last season, its not even the points its the consistent effort. If he wants that let him prove it for one more year, because last season was the first time he did so.

- flyer_nutter


That's exactly what should happen -- this player screams "prove it one more year, that you are what you did in 2015-2016."

There's a reason why these tools exist in the CBA -- if Schenn comes in at 60 points again, you're gonna have to pay him the 5/5-plus. If he comes in at 45 points and has the lengthy droughts, you look at him for what that means: $4.5 million or move him.

This should not be difficult. If Schenn is talking crazy on AAV and term, make his ass prove it for another year. Beat him in arbitration -- this should not be an issue of hurting Schenn's feelings if he's asking for more than $5 million
MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jun 28 @ 12:06 PM ET
Salaries escalate and rise. What a similar player was worth 4 years ago, is different than what that player is worth today.
- MJL


In a free market without any controls over players and without a salary cap, sure they do.

The cap in 2012-13 was 70.2mil. The cap for the upcoming season will be 73mil.

4 years and only an increase of 2.8 million. That doesn't leave a lot of room for the type of salary growth you're implying.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 28 @ 12:06 PM ET
What would you pay?

I would refuse to pay somebody a big contract after one true breakout year. I'd rather go to arbitration and risk losing him as a UFA, instead of signing him and it being another poopty contract.

I would love to keep the guy long term if he plays like he did last season, its not even the points its the consistent effort. If he wants that let him prove it for one more year, because last season was the first time he did so.

- flyer_nutter


Schenn is worth a multi year deal for around 5M a year.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 28 @ 12:07 PM ET
He isn't, so it's a moot point.
- MikesPillBottle


It's not moot. Can't compare deals signed 4 years ago to today.
MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jun 28 @ 12:07 PM ET
But its not a moot point at all..

When Simmer signed his deal the value of contracts was completely differen.t

- jak521


No, it is. The cap has barely changed.

jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 28 @ 12:08 PM ET
You also told me that Columbus would drop down and get more assets over taking a center.

not everything works they way you think.

If Schenn was looking for money around the 5 million range I have a feeling this deal would be done. Teams would like to know what money they have and allocated where for FA so they can plan.

- J35Bacher


I still think Columbus is stupid for not trading down and/or taking the Finn.
MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jun 28 @ 12:09 PM ET
It's not moot. Can't compare deals signed 4 years ago to today.
- MJL


We most certainly can within a salary cap era.

sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

Jun 28 @ 12:10 PM ET
He will be 1 year closer to UFA with the option to take to the team to arbitration for his final RFA year. Flyers have significantly more leverage now.

His development has been consistent and he proved last season he is a legitimate top 6 scoring forward. 4 goals and 7 assists isn't going to change that. Now is the time to pay him what he's worth. Don't wait until his agent has the leverage to add a million or two to that cap hit.

- Baxter27


what does this mean?

one year of scoring 59 points makes you a legitimate top 6 forward? since when? i remember a guy scoring 21 points in 19 playoff games one year, having 53 points the following season, and subsequently getting a 6 year deal worth an AAV of 4.5 million.

his name was Ville Leino. yea he was 26 when he came here, and his 53 point season came two years after schenn, but it sets a precedence. do you think the sabres regret shelling out that money after only one good year?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 28 @ 12:10 PM ET
In a free market without any controls over players and without a salary cap, sure they do.

The cap in 2012-13 was 70.2mil. The cap for the upcoming season will be 73mil.

4 years and only an increase of 2.8 million. That doesn't leave a lot of room for the type of salary growth you're implying.

- MikesPillBottle


Contract negotiations are fir individual players and at that point the upper limit is not a variable for the player. Salary growth is based on what comparable players received in recent deals. Each new deal Helps set the market.
MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jun 28 @ 12:11 PM ET
Schenn will sign a 2 year deal for no more than 4.2 million. Book mark this page.

Or he will be traded, naturally.

No point in arguing about it anymore. Let's all give our opinions on what he'll get and let the future determine who was right.
sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

Jun 28 @ 12:11 PM ET
But Schenn is 24...thought of being core, MDZ has never been. When a team AND player think highly of each other, they get a deal done, no if/ands or buts. Name the last Flyer to have their negotiations get strung along this far...80/20 he is no longer a Flyer by season's end.
- Glak18


i know this has been said ad nauseum, but Hexy was with LA when they traded Schenn. Usually a guy who was stated on many occasions as the best player not in the NHL, tends not to be traded. I bet Hexy knows something and if he doesnt get his price, you guys are right, he's either traded or has to accept the QO, or sits.
hammer32
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 02.05.2009

Jun 28 @ 12:12 PM ET
Add jultz to the Ufa list. A RH puck mover I'd have interest. Another mdz special
- Just5

I'm from Edm and watched this guy for 4 years awful no keep in mind he was playing top D mins 23-24 vs being very sheltered in Pitt playing 8-10 mins and weaker match ups he is a great skater but makes some awful give away mistakes and has a horrible shot from the point couldn't break glass but yet he was our PP specialist IMO he's not worth even 2.5 mil per but someone will give him a few mil prob.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jun 28 @ 12:12 PM ET
I still think Columbus is stupid for not trading down and/or taking the Finn.
- jmatchett383



I was surprised they didn't move down.

I was also surprised Vancouver took a defender but I actually think it was a smart pick for them. Build from the back
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 28 @ 12:12 PM ET
Offer sheet breakdown:

Less than $1,239,226 Nothing
Over $1,239,226 to $1,877,615 Third-round pick
Over $1,877,615 to $3,755,233 Second-round pick
Over $3,755,233 to $5,632,847 First and third-round picks
Over $5,632,847 to $7,510,464 First, second and third-round picks
Over $7,510,464 to $9,388,080 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $9,388,080 Four first-round picks


Any interest in an OS to Trouba? Does WPG definitely match if its 7 years at the highest value in the bolded part?

- J35Bacher


Are you sure Trouba accepts it? Part of the issue with the offer sheet is that, if the player demands an insane amount to stay in a place he doesn't like, and signs an offer sheet for less from somewhere else, he runs the risk of taking less to keep playing the same place.

It's why the Weber OS worked. He was fine with either Philly or Nashville, he wanted the pay day. With Trouba, if he doesn't want to stay in Winnipeg for under $7M, then he won't sign an offer sheet for less than $7M.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 28 @ 12:12 PM ET
Schenn will sign a 2 year deal for no more than 4.2 million. Book mark this page.

Or he will be traded, naturally.

No point in arguing about it anymore. Let's all give our opinions on what he'll get and let the future determine who was right.

- MikesPillBottle


Three years, 4.5/4.75/5 per, for an AAV of 4.75. They buy one year of UFA and then see what he is heading into the final year, decide whether to extend him or move him
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jun 28 @ 12:17 PM ET
MJL is right in a way. Teams try to avoid arbitration for that one instance when a player gets a bigger reward then you want.

Kind of like Neimi after the cup. He got a sizable award and the Blackhawks either had to accept it, release him for nothing or trade him.

They couldn't trade him because no one wanted him at that cap hit so he was released.

You don't want to get into a situation where you have no control.
MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jun 28 @ 12:17 PM ET
Three years, 4.5/4.75/5 per, for an AAV of 4.75. They buy one year of UFA and then see what he is heading into the final year, decide whether to extend him or move him
- AllInForFlyers


I bookmarked the page. Would be better if everyone would guess the contract. Those who refuse to give specifics and play around in the gray area to play devils advocate on every issue be damned.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 28 @ 12:17 PM ET
We most certainly can within a salary cap era.
- MikesPillBottle



Cap started in 2005. Let's use deals signed then!
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 28 @ 12:19 PM ET
MJL is right in a way. Teams try to avoid arbitration for that one instance when a player gets a bigger reward then you want.

Kind of like Neimi after the cup. He got a sizable award and the Blackhawks either had to accept it, release him for nothing or trade him.

They couldn't trade him because no one wanted him at that cap hit so he was released.

You don't want to get into a situation where you have no control.

- J35Bacher


No. "No control" is when you give a player a multi-year deal at a number you don't like when you can take him to arbitration and win.

This is not Filip Forsberg we're talking about. Brayden Schenn is not going to win an arbitration case where he asks for more than $5 million. It's not gonna happen -- it will not happen

All this hand-wringing -- the numbers aren't there! You cannot be afraid of these players and using the CBA!
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 28 @ 12:19 PM ET
Cap started in 2005. Let's use deals signed then!
- MJL


Ryan McDonagh's contract should be used as a measuring stick for top-pair, #1 defensemen.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jun 28 @ 12:19 PM ET
Are you sure Trouba accepts it? Part of the issue with the offer sheet is that, if the player demands an insane amount to stay in a place he doesn't like, and signs an offer sheet for less from somewhere else, he runs the risk of taking less to keep playing the same place.

It's why the Weber OS worked. He was fine with either Philly or Nashville, he wanted the pay day. With Trouba, if he doesn't want to stay in Winnipeg for under $7M, then he won't sign an offer sheet for less than $7M.

- jmatchett383



That would be on him if he signed or didn't.

Just a thought.

I know probably far fetched but is Schenn a possible OS target?

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