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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Buffalo Sabres 2016-17 Season Preview
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Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Oct 12 @ 10:40 PM ET
I know you don't like analytics, and I have never taken the time to try and understand them myself, but I think that is the kind of stat that will have an affect wins and losses over the course of time if it continues.
- rmiethaner



I don't like analytics because they don't tell anybody poop about the game.

The score in that game is 3-2 Blues. The reason the Hawks are so badly outshot is because they took 4 penalties in the 2d period and a 5th at the outset of the 3rd. I don't think that will continue all season, they they will consistently be outshot to that extent, or that it's safe to draw season long conclusions based on a single wierd period.
rmiethaner
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 10.04.2006

Oct 12 @ 10:40 PM ET
The Blues will win 5-2.

Three power play goals and two empty net goals.
chilliard77
Location: NY
Joined: 08.23.2011

Oct 12 @ 10:42 PM ET
I'm just focused on the Sabres tomorrow and overcoming the injuries.
rmiethaner
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 10.04.2006

Oct 12 @ 10:42 PM ET
I don't like analytics because they don't tell anybody poop about the game.

The score in that game is 3-2 Blues. The reason the Hawks are so badly outshot is because they took 4 penalties in the 2d period and a 5th at the outset of the 3rd. I don't think that will continue all season, they they will consistently be outshot to that extent, or that it's safe to draw season long conclusions based on a single wierd period.

- Der Kaiser



Very nice rebuttal, counselor.

That is fair.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 12 @ 10:46 PM ET
I don't like analytics because they don't tell anybody poop about the game.

The score in that game is 3-2 Blues. The reason the Hawks are so badly outshot is because they took 4 penalties in the 2d period and a 5th at the outset of the 3rd. I don't think that will continue all season, they they will consistently be outshot to that extent, or that it's safe to draw season long conclusions based on a single wierd period.

- Der Kaiser

They aren't analytics. They are shots. One of the most basic stats there is.

And It has little to do with "analytics", and mostly to so with the decreasing depth Chicago currently has, along with the aging Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell. Hossa too

Just from there 1st round exit last year, they are down

Ladd, Teruvainen, Shaw, and others.

They aren't the same Hawks. But by all means....
SABRES 89
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'm very Happy to be here. Las Vegas Via Buffalo N.Y.
Joined: 02.17.2007

Oct 12 @ 10:48 PM ET
The Blues will win 5-2.

Three power play goals and two empty net goals.

- rmiethaner

Special teams mean nothing.
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Oct 12 @ 10:50 PM ET
They aren't analytics. They are shots. One of the most basic stats there is.

And It has little to do with "analytics", and mostly to so with the decreasing depth Chicago currently has, along with the aging Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell. Hossa too

Just from there 1st round exit last year, they are down

Ladd, Teruvainen, Shaw, and others.

They aren't the same Hawks. But by all means....

- sbroads24


That would have been a better post than
"Down tons of shots playoffs impossible". Especially in a one goal game (at the time)
PS. They're** 1st round exit
rmiethaner
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 10.04.2006

Oct 12 @ 10:50 PM ET
They aren't analytics. They are shots. One of the most basic stats there is.

And It has little to do with "analytics", and mostly to so with the decreasing depth Chicago currently has, along with the aging Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell. Hossa too

Just from there 1st round exit last year, they are down

Ladd, Teruvainen, Shaw, and others.

They aren't the same Hawks. But by all means....

- sbroads24



I think that he made a fair point by pointing out that there may have been an increase in shots due to them always being shorthanded.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 12 @ 10:57 PM ET
I think that he made a fair point by pointing out that there may have been an increase in shots due to them always being shorthanded.
- rmiethaner

St. Louis took two penalties in the first to Chicago's 0 and still out shot them 9-6. The numbers are right there on nhl.com
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Oct 12 @ 11:00 PM ET
St. Louis took two penalties in the first to Chicago's 0 and still out shot them 9-6. The numbers are right there on nhl.com
- sbroads24


Lies.
rmiethaner
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 10.04.2006

Oct 12 @ 11:01 PM ET
I know it is just the first night of the season, but it is really nice to see all the goal scoring in these games.
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Oct 12 @ 11:03 PM ET
I know it is just the first night of the season, but it is really nice to see all the goal scoring in these games.
- rmiethaner

Don't you worry. Coaches and officials will put an end to that real quick.
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Oct 12 @ 11:09 PM ET
St. Louis took two penalties in the first to Chicago's 0 and still out shot them 9-6. The numbers are right there on nhl.com
- sbroads24

Chicago was winning after 1st period.

And there's the rub. All the analytics is based on a false premise that shots are the true measure of success, when the game and the league say goals - and more importantly points resulting from ties and wins - are the measure of success.

Chicago had a pp with 6 minutes left in the game: if the cashed it, the empty netters wouldn't have been there (probably) and the Hawks get a point despite being so badly outshot.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 12 @ 11:18 PM ET
Chicago was winning after 1st period.

And there's the rub. All the analytics is based on a false premise that shots are the true measure of success, when the game and the league say goals - and more importantly points resulting from ties and wins - are the measure of success.

Chicago had a pp with 6 minutes l
eft in the game: if the cashed it, the empty netters wouldn't have been there (probably) and the Hawks get a point despite being so badly outshot.

- Der Kaiser

And the best PP'S in the league score one out of 5 times. Another reason relying on special teams or thinking they are a big part of success is a myth.

Not to mention, when you have the puck, or are shooting the puck more, you tend to draw more penalties than you take
SABRES 89
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'm very Happy to be here. Las Vegas Via Buffalo N.Y.
Joined: 02.17.2007

Oct 12 @ 11:24 PM ET
The Hawks screwed themselves they had a great team and 2 players got greedy and now they are paying for it every year.
jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Nashville , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Oct 12 @ 11:27 PM ET
The Hawks screwed themselves they had a great team and 2 players got greedy and now they are paying for it every year.
- SABRES 89

Yeah but they have a lot of cups....
SABRES 89
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'm very Happy to be here. Las Vegas Via Buffalo N.Y.
Joined: 02.17.2007

Oct 12 @ 11:29 PM ET
Yeah but they have a lot of cups....
- jochfr

Sure they did then but how many you think they will get now ?
LandlordTom
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Ice girls, please, NY
Joined: 07.16.2011

Oct 12 @ 11:30 PM ET
we still have as many points as all but at least 7 teams so far! Good news. Thank God it's a team sport and one player being hurt does not dictate what will happen over 82 games.

Go Sabres!
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 12 @ 11:31 PM ET
Yeah but they have a lot of cups....
- jochfr

And that's the cycle. Draft great young players, build a deep team by using picks and cap space wisely, and when it's time to pay up, slowly decline.

They will be a 4 player team if they decide to pay Panarin
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Oct 12 @ 11:37 PM ET
And the best PP'S in the league score one out of 5 times. Another reason relying on special teams or thinking they are a big part of success is a myth.

Not to mention, when you have the puck, or are shooting the puck more, you tend to draw more penalties than you take

- sbroads24

I don't know if I would call it a myth, but you're right in the sense that 5 on 5 is the bigger factor. However, if you get two teams who equal to or close 5 on 5, then special teams absolutely makes a difference.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 12 @ 11:42 PM ET
I don't know if I would call it a myth, but you're right in the sense that 5 on 5 is the bigger factor. However, if you get two teams who equal to or close 5 on 5, then special teams absolutely makes a difference.
- buffalofan19

Sure, just like goal tending would also make the difference between two teams with similar 5 on 5 play, but that doesnt mean you should build your team around a goalie.

Chicago will struggle because there is a slim to none chance Kane repeats his year from last year, and because that team lacks the depth they had last year.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Oct 13 @ 12:25 AM ET
And the best PP'S in the league score one out of 5 times. Another reason relying on special teams or thinking they are a big part of success is a myth.

Not to mention, when you have the puck, or are shooting the puck more, you tend to draw more penalties than you take

- sbroads24


I'd like to see a deeper dive into PP. Like what's the SH%? How many PP minutes per a G versus how many 5v5 minutes per G. The PP stats are a bit misleading though, because if you have a PP for only 1 second that counts as a PP opportunity. And when you have overlapping penalties you might not even get a chance to get your PP out there and set up for your 1 opportunity that lasts 12 seconds.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Oct 13 @ 12:40 AM ET


That's pretty funny. I wonder how many guys knew it was him.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Oct 13 @ 12:53 AM ET
The Blues will win 5-2.

Three power play goals and two empty net goals.

- rmiethaner

special teams don't matter much
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Oct 13 @ 12:53 AM ET
ALRIGHT ALRIGHT ALRIGHT


GAME NIGHT
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