Hossa can't be LTIR until after the 1st day of the season and all rosters have to be at 20-24 players and under $75 K a day prior at the start of the day. So Vegas would have to send at least a few D men down that are not waiver exempt before we an LTIR Hossa

Yeah...people seem to forget that or gloss over it likes its no big deal. Having to wait on the LTIR hurts us. I think the team we have now is the team we start with....and Bowman uses the LTIR money at some point closer to the trade deadline.

Yeah...people seem to forget that or gloss over it likes its no big deal. Having to wait on the LTIR hurts us. I think the team we have now is the team we start with....and Bowman uses the LTIR money at some point closer to the trade deadline.
- onehundredlevel

I'm thinking and hoping that maybe the EK situation could happen sooner rather than later......... IF........ that's the guy that they feel can help Kane and AA on that 2nd line.

Obviously some salary retention by Buffalo would also determine who goes back to the Sabres. They are going to lose him at year end anyway so what is it going to take for SB to make this acquisition ? Then......... his contributions, attitude, and commitment to this team will determine his value in the off-season. It's a win win or lose lose scenario........kind of a first actually and a gamble if you think about it. I personally would love to see it. What a top 6 we could have !! Let the power of the CAPTAIN and the veteran locker room mold this guy into a force. JMO

From today NHL Radio...Season Look Ahead for the Blackhawks-
https://chirb.it/3Exq3b

I'm thinking and hoping that maybe the EK situation could happen sooner rather than later......... IF........ that's the guy that they feel can help Kane and AA on that 2nd line.

Obviously some salary retention by Buffalo would also determine who goes back to the Sabres. They are going to lose him at year end anyway so what is it going to take for SB to make this acquisition ? Then......... his contributions, attitude, and commitment to this team will determine his value in the off-season. It's a win win or lose lose scenario........kind of a first actually and a gamble if you think about it. I personally would love to see it. What a top 6 we could have !! Let the power of the CAPTAIN and the veteran locker room mold this guy into a force. JMO
- Hawkytalk

Oh, I agree with you...I prefer they are able to swing a deal right after Hoss goes on LTIR. I just don't think they will. I think they will wait until the trade deadline. I also think if you trade right after game one or two or three...you have to give up more to get a guy like Evander Kane....then you would have to give up at the deadline. Not sure on that....just spit balling.

[quote=walleyeb1]

A definite possibility.

I wonder if Bowman already has a deal with a depth defender or forward or maybe a trade for E.Kane or Duclair that cannot be acted on until day 2. I wonder if there is interest at the right price in defenders Beauchemin, Despres (if healthy), Kindl, Polak, Liles, Franson or LW's Vanek, Foligno, Duclair, Hudler or Centers Winnik, Mitchell (6'1" 205 and 55% FO), McClement (6'1" 205 and 50%+ FO for career).

Yeah...people seem to forget that or gloss over it likes its no big deal. Having to wait on the LTIR hurts us. I think the team we have now is the team we start with....and Bowman uses the LTIR money at some point closer to the trade deadline.
- onehundredlevel

Unless there is a deal basically agreed to already providing there are no curve balls from the NHL.

Oh, I agree with you...I prefer they are able to swing a deal right after Hoss goes on LTIR. I just don't think they will. I think they will wait until the trade deadline. I also think if you trade right after game one or two or three...you have to give up more to get a guy like Evander Kane....then you would have to give up at the deadline. Not sure on that....just spit balling.
- onehundredlevel

Agreed.........but what if EK has a great start to the season ? Then the compensation would be higher at the TD than at the beginning of the season. It's a gamble either way. I'm just one who believes that this team MUST get off to a good start and not get too far behind by the November road trip. If that would happen, then the TD deals will cost even more to attempt to get back into the top 8 in the conference.

Looking at last year's goal totals from forwards...

2016-17 SEASON - ACTUAL

Toews, 21
Schmaltz, 6
Panik, 22
1L TOTAL = 49

Panarin, 31
Anisimov, 22
Kane, 34
2L TOTAL = 87

Hartman, 19
Kruger, 5
Hossa, 26
3L TOTAL = 50

Kero, 6
Hinostroza, 6
Rasmussen, 4
Motte, 4
Tootoo, 2
Hayden, 1
Jurco, 1
Desjardins, 0
4L TOTAL = 24

FORWARD TOTALS = 210

...and comparing them to projected forward totals for the upcoming season...

2017-18 SEASON - PROJECTED

Toews, 20
Saad, 20
Panik, 20
1L TOTAL = 60 (+11)

LW, 15
Anisimov, 20
Kane, 35
2L TOTAL = 70 (-17)

Sharp, 15
Schmaltz, 15
Hartman, 20
3L TOTAL = 50 (no change)

Bouma, 10
Dauphin, 10
Wingels, 15
4L TOTAL = 35 (+11)

FORWARD TOTALS = 215 (+5)

These projections are conservative so these totals could be lower than what may play out. The totals also do not count any contributions from extra forwards like Hinostroza, Jurco, Tootoo, Kero, etc.

Is there any other forward besides Kane who can be a 30+ goal scorer like Panarin was? Saad has the best chance, IMHO, but he doesn't need to be for that trade to be of benefit to the Hawks as a whole. I don't think a 1 for 1 comparison is the issue either.

Overall, there may not be a drastic drop off in offensive production from the forwards. If anything, the output could be the same but distributed more evenly across all 4 lines. One way to view the Saad for Panarin trade is that it helps balance the lines which especially comes in handy during the playoffs. I'd much rather give the other team match-up problems against the Hawks than it is to have a single dynamo line like Panarin, Anisimov, and Kane formed the prior 2 seasons. Go ahead and stack your defense to stop Kane's line but Toews line or even the 3rd line is still going to sting you.

p.s. This is just a gross statistical analysis, so if there are advanced stats that tell a different story, by all means inject those numbers and arguments in to the conversation.

Is there any other forward besides Kane who can be a 30+ goal scorer like Panarin was? Saad has the best chance, IMHO, but he doesn't need to be for that trade to be of benefit to the Hawks as a whole. I don't think a 1 for 1 comparison is the issue either.

I liked your analysis. And I agree with above. Both great players. But I will take playoff Saad over playoff Panarin any day of the week. That was a good deal for us. We also are a bit concerned, and rightfully so, over our defense. But I thought last years defense was going to be the best we ever had...especially after getting Oduya back. So I am ok with going younger and faster there. What we will miss most of all will be Hoss. There is no replacing him.

Looking at last year's goal totals from forwards...
Bouma, 10
Dauphin, 10
Wingels, 15
4L TOTAL = 35 (+11)

FORWARD TOTALS = 215 (+5)

These projections are conservative so these totals could be lower than what may play out. The totals also do not count any contributions from extra forwards like Hinostroza, Jurco, Tootoo, Kero, etc.

p.s. This is just a gross statistical analysis, so if there are advanced stats that tell a different story, by all means inject those numbers and arguments in to the conversation.
- AEL_Fox

What stats are you using to project Bouma or Wingels scoring 10/15 goals respectfully?

The only time Bouma has gotten double digitals for goals was 3 seasons ago playing with a top 6 playmaker and had a sh% 3 times his normal rate - it's an outlier. He's had terrible shot generation his entire career, and he's been declining with age, so he's not likely to increase his goal production through volume over the last couple of years. Based on his career, the top end for his projected goals rate for a season would be .08 (7 goals) but more realistically base on a 3 year arc, it's about .05 (4 goals). His QOT will be lower on the Hawks than it was on the Flames too, though Idk if that matters since he was always the anchor on his line.

Somewhat similarly, Wingels hasn't hit double digits for goals in 4 seasons, though he's been pretty steady with his goals production over the years. Based on his career and the past 3 year arc, he might be able to produce G/GP rate of .09/.1 goals (so about his normal rate of 7/8 goals). Just to note, Wingels was not used in a checking line role in recent years - he played against low QOC with higher OZS%, so a change in those parameters likely means his goals will go down (his QOT would be lower as well if Bouma is his linemate).

There's not enough info on Dauphin to come up with an accurate projection, but he's not likely going to have a big enough impact on two generally bad to so-so 4th line producers to increase their goals. Individually I think he could be something really good, but it's hard to expect a rookie to influence two older, declining wingers at a huge rate. They could be a decent checking line, maybe, but expecting 35 goals from them might be setting the bar too high tbh.

What stats are you using to project Bouma or Wingels scoring 10/15 goals respectfully?

The only time Bouma has gotten double digitals for goals was 3 seasons ago playing with a top 6 playmaker and had a sh% 3 times his normal rate - it's an outlier. He's had terrible shot generation his entire career, and he's been declining with age, so he's not likely to increase his goal production through volume over the last couple of years. Based on his career, the top end for his projected goals rate for a season would be .08 (7 goals) but more realistically base on a 3 year arc, it's about .05 (4 goals). His QOT will be lower on the Hawks than it was on the Flames too, though Idk if that matters since he was always the anchor on his line.

Somewhat similarly, Wingels hasn't hit double digits for goals in 4 seasons, though he's been pretty steady with his goals production over the years. Based on his career and the past 3 year arc, he might be able to produce G/GP rate of .09/.1 goals (so about his normal rate of 7/8 goals). Just to note, Wingels was not used in a checking line role in recent years - he played against low QOC with higher OZS%, so a change in those parameters likely means his goals will go down (his QOT would be lower as well if Bouma is his linemate).

There's not enough info on Dauphin to come up with an accurate projection, but he's not likely going to have a big enough impact on two generally bad to so-so 4th line producers to increase their goals. Individually I think he could be something really good, but it's hard to expect a rookie to influence two older, declining wingers at a huge rate. They could be a decent checking line, maybe, but expecting 35 goals from them might be setting the bar too high tbh.
- L_B_R

You're probably right, I was over projecting the 4th line totals. I'll admit 30+ goals from that line is a big stretch. Without using advanced stats since that's not my forte, realistically though, I think they could net 25 if they're banging on all cylinders (and "they" could include a rotation of extra forwards like Hinostroza, Jurco, Kero, Tootoo, or Hayden).

From today NHL Radio...Season Look Ahead for the Blackhawks-
https://chirb.it/3Exq3b
- Al

Excellent work as usual, Al.

I liked your analysis. And I agree with above. Both great players. But I will take playoff Saad over playoff Panarin any day of the week. That was a good deal for us. We also are a bit concerned, and rightfully so, over our defense. But I thought last years defense was going to be the best we ever had...especially after getting Oduya back. So I am ok with going younger and faster there. What we will miss most of all will be Hoss. There is no replacing him.
- onehundredlevel

Agree. Put me in the camp of feeling more confident about the forwards (even with the LW on Kane's line as a question mark) than the defense. An experienced defender is the most pressing need, IMHO.

Without a 2LW, I do think Sharp starts there but is not the long-term solution for the whole season. Fortin could impress and have a crack at that role. Or Bowman could look elsewhere at an acquisition (i.e. E. Kane, Jenner, etc) but that could impact other parts of the lineup if the Hawk(s) being traded are current roster players.

From today NHL Radio...Season Look Ahead for the Blackhawks-
https://chirb.it/3Exq3b
- Al

Great stuff Al!

I used to work with Steve Kouleas... good cat.

Excellent work as usual, Al.
- Hank_Greenberg

Thanks!

Great stuff Al!

I used to work with Steve Kouleas... good cat.
- TyCamScore

Sharp guy and Nick is vg as well....
From today NHL Radio...Season Look Ahead for the Blackhawks-
https://chirb.it/3Exq3b

Looking at last year's goal totals from forwards...

2016-17 SEASON - ACTUAL

Toews, 21
Schmaltz, 6
Panik, 22
1L TOTAL = 49

Panarin, 31
Anisimov, 22
Kane, 34
2L TOTAL = 87

Hartman, 19
Kruger, 5
Hossa, 26
3L TOTAL = 50

Kero, 6
Hinostroza, 6
Rasmussen, 4
Motte, 4
Tootoo, 2
Hayden, 1
Jurco, 1
Desjardins, 0
4L TOTAL = 24

FORWARD TOTALS = 210

...and comparing them to projected forward totals for the upcoming season...

2017-18 SEASON - PROJECTED

Toews, 20
Saad, 20
Panik, 20
1L TOTAL = 60 (+11)

LW, 15
Anisimov, 20
Kane, 35
2L TOTAL = 70 (-17)

Sharp, 15
Schmaltz, 15
Hartman, 20
3L TOTAL = 50 (no change)

Bouma, 10
Dauphin, 10
Wingels, 15
4L TOTAL = 35 (+11)

FORWARD TOTALS = 215 (+5)

These projections are conservative so these totals could be lower than what may play out. The totals also do not count any contributions from extra forwards like Hinostroza, Jurco, Tootoo, Kero, etc.

Is there any other forward besides Kane who can be a 30+ goal scorer like Panarin was? Saad has the best chance, IMHO, but he doesn't need to be for that trade to be of benefit to the Hawks as a whole. I don't think a 1 for 1 comparison is the issue either.

Overall, there may not be a drastic drop off in offensive production from the forwards. If anything, the output could be the same but distributed more evenly across all 4 lines. One way to view the Saad for Panarin trade is that it helps balance the lines which especially comes in handy during the playoffs. I'd much rather give the other team match-up problems against the Hawks than it is to have a single dynamo line like Panarin, Anisimov, and Kane formed the prior 2 seasons. Go ahead and stack your defense to stop Kane's line but Toews line or even the 3rd line is still going to sting you.

p.s. This is just a gross statistical analysis, so if there are advanced stats that tell a different story, by all means inject those numbers and arguments in to the conversation.
- AEL_Fox

Interesting, though I think the 4th line projections are extremely optimistic, and predicting 15 goals from a player not on the roster in August is also a little questionable. Otherwise, all those seem like totally reasonable predictions.

But I wonder what the totals are if all of the forwards currently on the roster produce the same number of goals next year as they did last year. I'm guessing the Blackhawks would be short... 25-30 goals from last year? Blackhawks are counting far more on people to improve than they have in the past. They aren't alone, I know Blues are in a similar spot.

Interesting, though I think the 4th line projections are extremely optimistic, and predicting 15 goals from a player not on the roster in August is also a little questionable. Otherwise, all those seem like totally reasonable predictions.

But I wonder what the totals are if all of the forwards currently on the roster produce the same number of goals next year as they did last year. I'm guessing the Blackhawks would be short... 25-30 goals from last year? Blackhawks are counting far more on people to improve than they have in the past. They aren't alone, I know Blues are in a similar spot.
- Antilles

It is difficult to say if the Hawks will score more or less....up front they lost the following players who had the following goal per game over the last two seasons.

Panarin 0.38, Hossa 0.28, Kruger 0.04, Rassmussen 0.07, Desjardins 0.07 ~ combined 0.84 goals per game

They gained

Saad 0.34, Sharp 0.23, Wingels 0.10, Bouma 0.05, Dauphin 0.09 ~ combined 0.81 goals per game.

Player health and opportunity will be important, but the subtractions and additions are comparable in terms of ability to score goals. The questions might be...

Will Panik be a 20+ goal guy again?
Will Toews bounce back in goal scoring? He was about 4-5 goals lower than typical, but if his shooting% goes back to normal he is likely 25-30 goals again.
Will Hartman continue to an effective (or even better) 5v5 producer?
Schmaltz, will he shoot more? The kid has room to grow in the goal scoring dept.
Then there are the real wild cards, in terms of Hayden/DeBrincat/Fortin, etc... Very difficult to know if they will stick and produce, but the potential is there.

I don't think goal scoring will the issue for the Hawks, because they have the talent to score enough to be in the top 5-10 on that front, but they lost some good defensive forwards. The Hawks may struggle more in goal prevention and that could hurt their production in a roundabout way.

It is difficult to say if the Hawks will score more or less....up front they lost the following players who had the following goal per game over the last two seasons.

Panarin 0.38, Hossa 0.28, Kruger 0.04, Rassmussen 0.07, Desjardins 0.07 ~ combined 0.84 goals per game

They gained

Saad 0.34, Sharp 0.23, Wingels 0.10, Bouma 0.05, Dauphin 0.09 ~ combined 0.81 goals per game.

Player health and opportunity will be important, but the subtractions and additions are comparable in terms of ability to score goals. The questions might be...

Will Panik be a 20+ goal guy again?
Will Toews bounce back in goal scoring? He was about 4-5 goals lower than typical, but if his shooting% goes back to normal he is likely 25-30 goals again.
Will Hartman continue to an effective (or even better) 5v5 producer?
Schmaltz, will he shoot more? The kid has room to grow in the goal scoring dept.
Then there are the real wild cards, in terms of Hayden/DeBrincat/Fortin, etc... Very difficult to know if they will stick and produce, but the potential is there.

I don't think goal scoring will the issue for the Hawks, because they have the talent to score enough to be in the top 5-10 on that front, but they lost some good defensive forwards. The Hawks may struggle more in goal prevention and that could hurt their production in a roundabout way.
- breadbag

Well I hope your right but if Q holds true to form, he'll be strongly preaching "get back" defense....no chances, no pinching, no aggressive forecheck, etc....to try and keep the goals against in line, and that will limit our scoring changes.

The US Dollar dropped today. if it continues a downward trend, especially versus the Canadian Dollar, is that good news for the 2018-19 season salary cap going up significantly?

The US Dollar dropped today. if it continues a downward trend, especially versus the Canadian Dollar, is that good news for the 2018-19 season salary cap going up significantly?
- matt_ahrens

No, yet maybe slightly.

No, because right now, the salary cap mid-point is above the actual 50% of hockey related revenue that players get. Currency fluctuations are unlikely to push HRR high enough to effect the cap, it will just result in less of current player contracts being kept via escrow.

Maybe slightly, because if players stop losing so much of their paychecks to escrow, they may choose to use more of the 5% inflator than the ~3% of it they used this offseason.

This has to make one Patrick Kane a very annoyed man.

From SBNation

It is difficult to say if the Hawks will score more or less....up front they lost the following players who had the following goal per game over the last two seasons.

Panarin 0.38, Hossa 0.28, Kruger 0.04, Rassmussen 0.07, Desjardins 0.07 ~ combined 0.84 goals per game

They gained

Saad 0.34, Sharp 0.23, Wingels 0.10, Bouma 0.05, Dauphin 0.09 ~ combined 0.81 goals per game.

Player health and opportunity will be important, but the subtractions and additions are comparable in terms of ability to score goals. The questions might be...

Will Panik be a 20+ goal guy again?
Will Toews bounce back in goal scoring? He was about 4-5 goals lower than typical, but if his shooting% goes back to normal he is likely 25-30 goals again.
Will Hartman continue to an effective (or even better) 5v5 producer?
Schmaltz, will he shoot more? The kid has room to grow in the goal scoring dept.
Then there are the real wild cards, in terms of Hayden/DeBrincat/Fortin, etc... Very difficult to know if they will stick and produce, but the potential is there.

I don't think goal scoring will the issue for the Hawks, because they have the talent to score enough to be in the top 5-10 on that front, but they lost some good defensive forwards. The Hawks may struggle more in goal prevention and that could hurt their production in a roundabout way.
- breadbag

I was about to make a post on this. VERY important to the Hawks success (or lack there-of). We tend to look at Schmaltz and Hartman bringing what they brought last year. But, they are young, and hopefully improving. Same with Forsling and Kempny. Steps forward from 2-3 of these guys can go a LONG way in making our Hawks a contender again this year. Can you imagine if they were all 20% better AND we also added a LW or #4 D-man.....be some good.....

What stats are you using to project Bouma or Wingels scoring 10/15 goals respectfully?

The only time Bouma has gotten double digitals for goals was 3 seasons ago playing with a top 6 playmaker and had a sh% 3 times his normal rate - it's an outlier. He's had terrible shot generation his entire career, and he's been declining with age, so he's not likely to increase his goal production through volume over the last couple of years. Based on his career, the top end for his projected goals rate for a season would be .08 (7 goals) but more realistically base on a 3 year arc, it's about .05 (4 goals). His QOT will be lower on the Hawks than it was on the Flames too, though Idk if that matters since he was always the anchor on his line.

Somewhat similarly, Wingels hasn't hit double digits for goals in 4 seasons, though he's been pretty steady with his goals production over the years. Based on his career and the past 3 year arc, he might be able to produce G/GP rate of .09/.1 goals (so about his normal rate of 7/8 goals). Just to note, Wingels was not used in a checking line role in recent years - he played against low QOC with higher OZS%, so a change in those parameters likely means his goals will go down (his QOT would be lower as well if Bouma is his linemate).

There's not enough info on Dauphin to come up with an accurate projection, but he's not likely going to have a big enough impact on two generally bad to so-so 4th line producers to increase their goals. Individually I think he could be something really good, but it's hard to expect a rookie to influence two older, declining wingers at a huge rate. They could be a decent checking line, maybe, but expecting 35 goals from them might be setting the bar too high tbh.
- L_B_R

I completely agree with your assessment about his fourth line projections, but I also think he underestimated the first line projection. Last year was Toews' worst as a goal scorer, and he netted 21. Having Saad on his LW, that should increase. Saad has averaged 26 a year for the last three years. Panik could regress, but I think playing all year with 19 and 20 will keep him about where he was last year.

Well I hope your right but if Q holds true to form, he'll be strongly preaching "get back" defense....no chances, no pinching, no aggressive forecheck, etc....to try and keep the goals against in line, and that will limit our scoring changes.
- Hawkytalk

Q has been pretty much fine with shots against being high for a few seasons, though. Part of why Crawford should be considered so good is because he sees a good amount of high danger shots.