John Jaeckel: The What Ifs, Part 2

Nice Blog JJ. Yup, any 4 of those 10 will implode the season. I would be relegated to have to watch reality TV with my wife...

Nice Blog JJ. Yup, any 4 of those 10 will implode the season. I would be relegated to have to watch reality TV with my wife...
- riozzo

Always appreciate you, rio

I still think Rutta is going to be about as good as kempny last year which the hawks made a mistake not playing him the last 6 weeks of the season in leu or Roz (never played in the playoffs) Campbell and JO. Would kempny with 25 more games under his belt would have been better then all 3 of those guys vs Nashville's size and speed? I think yes and we would all agree he could not have been any worse. Also Rutta is 6'3" 210 and can skate for his size so if the theme is get bigger and faster he needs to get on the ice early and often. We need Kempny to be better and Rutta be as good as kempny. Forsling is fine but he is neither Big not fast. Which is not what we are going for.

Great job JJ!! 10 for 10 on the potential pitfalls. My biggest concern is with our defensive depth and Q's lack of patience with young defensemen. I have a feeling if we can get a solid number 5 defenseman via the Hossa "recapture" who can slot up into the top 4 if needed and if, at worst, we average out some of the 10 positives from your previous blog and some of the 10 negatives here, we just might surprise some teams come playoff time (assuming we make it).

Thanks for another great write-up. It helps during these hockey dog days!!

I think Tommy Wingles will make a "character impact" for the team on and off the ice. I think he will become a favorite to some fans. Hoping he could step up defensively and lay a big hit every night.

It is funny how fans thought Toews and Ovi were better then crosby. Now you cant give them away with their contracts. I always knew toews was the must overrated player in NHL history.

It is funny how fans thought Toews and Ovi were better then crosby. Now you cant give them away with their contracts. I always knew toews was the must overrated player in NHL history.
- hanleyaj

So anyway......

Great blog JJ!

The season is too long to think that some form of all of your points won't happen. Sharp will go into a funk, some sort of injury, d-men look lost. The question is, how do the new guys get through the rough patches... and I think the acquisitions of Saad and Sharp were instrumental in this since they've been through it.

It is funny how fans thought Toews and Ovi were better then crosby. Now you cant give them away with their contracts. I always knew toews was the must overrated player in NHL history.
- hanleyaj

Fake news. Sad!

So anyway......

Great blog JJ!

The season is too long to think that some form of all of your points won't happen. Sharp will go into a funk, some sort of injury, d-men look lost. The question is, how do the new guys get through the rough patches... and I think the acquisitions of Saad and Sharp were instrumental in this since they've been through it.
- CanOCorn

If everything JJ wrote a couple of days ago happens - and nothing from today's blog happens - Hawks win the Cup.

If nothing from two days ago happens - and everything from today - Hawks are drafting in the lottery next June.

But most likely - a couple of things from each post happen - like with all teams (and someone could do similar blogs on every team) - which means Hawks likely make the tournament - and we'll have to see what happens then.

It is funny how fans thought Toews and Ovi were better then crosby. Now you cant give them away with their contracts. I always knew toews was the must overrated player in NHL history.
- hanleyaj

Hmmm...what is the old saying? "Opinions are like a$$holes, everyone has one" - it's just that yours is a little "bigger" than most.

All valid points John, as were the 10 good things from the previous post. There are a lot of legitimate concerns, with, in my opinion, the d-corps at the top of the list.

It is funny how fans thought Toews and Ovi were better then crosby. Now you cant give them away with their contracts. I always knew toews was the must overrated player in NHL history.
- hanleyaj

Word of advice, if you're going to come here and talk trash, make sure you spell correctly. You kind of lose all credibility when you don't.

It is funny how fans thought Toews and Ovi were better then crosby. Now you cant give them away with their contracts. I always knew toews was the must overrated player in NHL history.
- hanleyaj

But just because sometimes some things need a more thorough deconstruction:

Tell me how many NHL players (in history) have won:

3 Cups
WJC Gold
Olympic Gold
Selke Trophy
Conn Smythe

I don't think Toews is better than Crosby. They are kind of different players. But even then . . . Sidney has made a statement the last couple of years without question.

But to say Toews is the most overrated player in history is, well, not supported by facts.

Unfortunately, a lot of what Toews has done in his career has not always shown up on the scoresheet.

To wit, when Mike Babcock was asked in 2010 who his besrt forward was on the Canadian Olympic Team (which won Gold), he said, point blank:

"Whoever's playing with Toews."

That's not an overrated player, that's really more like an underrated player. Granted that was 7 years ago when Toews was arguably at the peak of his game, not to mention 2015, when he took the Hawks on his back and basically carried them through the last two games of a Western Conference Final series they were losing.

I can name a LONG list of much more overrated players in NHL history, starting with OV.

Two subpar seasons notwithstanding, his body of work speaks for itself. And he's only 29, Ace.

Like your last post, a good analysis.

The "hard miles" theory certainly doesn't seem to have hurt the Penguins - since 2008-09 (when the Hawks first made the post-season and the Pens won their first Cup), each team has played 22 rounds in the tournament - with (just in the last 5 years, since the Hawks begain their 3-year run) the Pens playing in 14 and the Hawks in 13 rounds.

Didn't seem to bother the Pens the last two seasons. And - the Hawks had a long off-season (not cut short by much for those who played in whatever tournament happened last September) last summer - didn't seem to provide enough rest for April, 2017 play.

Perhaps there are more important issues than "hard miles" and such.

And - Forsberg not being ready if Crawford goes down - I'm not sure this is really different from the Darling days - if Crawford had gone down completely in 2015, would Darling have been able to carry the team to a title? Or - would Darling have been better than Crawford in the last two post-seasons? Darling still hasn't performed as a full time number one yet - we think he can, but can he?

Not to change the subject (altho I will), this article in today's Trib about how European soccer is recognizing an un-tapped market - for talent and marketing dollars - and is trying to capture it:

http://www.chicagotribune...e-met-20170801-story.html

Why don't Bettman an the owners and their marketing geniuses think about untapped markets and how to monetize them? Seems like it's dribs and drabs, but no concerted and coordinated effort.

But just because sometimes some things need a more thorough deconstruction:

Tell me how many NHL players (in history) have won:

3 Cups
WJC Gold
Olympic Gold
Selke Trophy
Conn Smythe

I don't think Toews is better than Crosby. They are kind of different players. But even then . . . Sidney has made a statement the last couple of years without question.

But to say Toews is the most overrated player in history is, well, not supported by facts.

Unfortunately, a lot of what Toews has done in his career has not always shown up on the scoresheet.

To wit, when Mike Babcock was asked in 2010 who his besrt forward was on the Canadian Olympic Team (which won Gold), he said, point blank:

"Whoever's playing with Toews."

That's not an overrated player, that's really more like an underrated player. Granted that was 7 years ago when Toews was arguably at the peak of his game, not to mention 2015, when he took the Hawks on his back and basically carried them through the last two games of a Western Conference Final series they were losing.

I can name a LONG list of much more overrated players in NHL history, starting with OV.

Two subpar seasons notwithstanding, his body of work speaks for itself. And he's only 29, Ace.
- John Jaeckel

I think what people mean by that was 3 years ago people were saying he was the best player in the league. I think that was a reach, and He will be the highest paid player for 3 years until Mcdavids contract starts and I think we would all agree he has played allot more like a solid #1 C (7 mil) then a top 3 like he is paid. I know you can say he did not have good linemates But when you say that you could also say that without hossa and SAAD (who produce at a similar rate without him) He cannot produce. the Great ones elevate who ever they play with Mcdavid, Kane, Crosby have all done it. Teows has not really done it. that said he has had a great 10 year run when you look at the body of work, and will go down as one of the all-time best hawks.

So maybe either Cup Finals or not make the playoffs?

Toews was basically crowned the next Messier - Especially with so much success at that young age. And then rather than continue to get better as he rolled through his 20s (like Kane) he just kind of plateaued.

Whatever. Its a dumb argument. Crosby is probably the best all around hockey player of this "era" and two years of lingering brain pain wasn't as big of a bump as I thought it would be for him. In the 8 years hes been healthy the Pens have made it to the finals 4 times and won 3. That's kind of good. Helps having Malkin who is certainly the second best player in the league. But we also saw what bad coaching did to those guys as well.

Also, Ovi is probably the best goalscorer ever which is pretty cool. Plenty of great players who have never won a Cup.

Anyhoo - How Toew's back holds up I think is an important question. I still think how they choose to play is the biggest factor. If they casually march up the ice like they've done the past two years its going to be an ugly year - I don't care how many points they accumulate.

If they push the puck up the ice with pace and disrupt the neutral zone with the athletes they have, even with the roster they have now, I think they can outscore enough of the teams they play against and be entertaining enough to watch. I really think its more than just names on a sheet right now.

A lot of unknowns going into the season. It's either going to work or not or somewhere in-between. The players and coaches brought in are expected to change how this team plays after getting embarrassed against the Preds. It will be interesting to see if it works.

And well, Buffalo is close to Toronto so Sabres fans can at least visit the Stanley Cup.

"The coaching staff must therefore, bite the bullet—and give lots of TOI to a Kempny, allow Murphy to make some initial mistakes, display patience in achieving a new chemistry on the third and fourth lines. And more."

This, I think.
That's what the regular season is for, no? Wasn't smash a wild card? They went to the final.
Until we start to play and see what we got, all the newcomers, in my mind, are Ryan Garbutts.

To AHL seasoning. Hoorah!

P. S. Hey J.j., I don't always praise your blogs as "great blog " and such as I assume you know, that's why I'm here. Great blog btw. Not too negative after all. Just "what if" factual.

Bring on the season.

Good, sober assessment JJ.
That being said, the point that worries me most is "the bug bites" point and how you expounded on it. The core has been remarkably healthy from 2010 forward. (The only disclaimer would be that many, if not most of the core played through injuries until last year). Last year, Toews, Keith, Hammer and Crow all missed chunks of games.

The positive coming out of this point is they all had a much longer off season going into October this year. If they come in healthier, the 'Hawks stand a chance to develop the chemistry necessary to put together a serious playoff run.

Let's do it again, boys!!

If you were a betting man, which way do you lean for the Blackhawks on your posts JJ? Good season or bad season?

I see them getting into playoffs and possibly losing once again in first round.

I'm sure most of us are penciling in Forsberg as the backup goalie (me included), but is he 100% a lock or could Berube have a strong camp and take the spot forcing Forsberg to start in Rockford? Just wondering. I know Forsberg has the stronger profile and has won the AHL's Calder Cup so my money is still on him to backup Crawford.