I completely agree with your assessment about his fourth line projections, but I also think he underestimated the first line projection. Last year was Toews' worst as a goal scorer, and he netted 21. Having Saad on his LW, that should increase. Saad has averaged 26 a year for the last three years. Panik could regress, but I think playing all year with 19 and 20 will keep him about where he was last year.
- tvetter

He was trying to be conservative on the top 6, it looks like. Realistically though, that lower projection for those guys could be balanced out by the flexibility in the projection on the 3rd line with Schmaltz and Sharp. His projection is reasonable, but neither are as firm because Schmaltz is less of a shooter/goal scorer and it may take him a couple more years to come into that, and Sharp will be determined by his games played total.

Keith - Murphy
XXX - Seabrook
Forsling/Kempney/Rutta/whoever
- Slofire94

Watched a lot of games in the 2nd half when I had more time to do so. Kempny made big strides throughout the season and seemed to play with a leash on and feel like he was at times playing (when he had the puck in the D zone) to not do something wrong rather than using his instincts, making a mistake and thus learning from it. Offensively though, he would get up the ice and get to loose pucks with force as well as anyone in the league. I'm expecting a big sophomore season from Kempny and top 4 mins with Seabs.

Agreed.........but what if EK has a great start to the season ? Then the compensation would be higher at the TD than at the beginning of the season. It's a gamble either way. I'm just one who believes that this team MUST get off to a good start and not get too far behind by the November road trip. If that would happen, then the TD deals will cost even more to attempt to get back into the top 8 in the conference.
- Hawkytalk

There is no more circus trip...The first extended road trip they take is in December around Christmas.

This has to make one Patrick Kane a very annoyed man.

From SBNation


- pdx2ord

That's a damn good roster.

No, yet maybe slightly.

No, because right now, the salary cap mid-point is above the actual 50% of hockey related revenue that players get. Currency fluctuations are unlikely to push HRR high enough to effect the cap, it will just result in less of current player contracts being kept via escrow.

Maybe slightly, because if players stop losing so much of their paychecks to escrow, they may choose to use more of the 5% inflator than the ~3% of it they used this offseason.
- Antilles

thanks! I appreciate the analysis!

That's a damn good roster.
- BINGO!

Saad-Pavelski-Wheeler would be a handful.

Q has been pretty much fine with shots against being high for a few seasons, though. Part of why Crawford should be considered so good is because he sees a good amount of high danger shots.
- L_B_R

Crawford's ability to stop and battle in those high danger situations is IMO his biggest asset. He has been great!

Saad-Pavelski-Wheeler would be a handful.
- Quicky72

JVR-Kesler-Oshie would be a pain in the ass too. Seriously, that roster has a legit shot at gold.

Shame they won't get to try, though.

He was trying to be conservative on the top 6, it looks like. Realistically though, that lower projection for those guys could be balanced out by the flexibility in the projection on the 3rd line with Schmaltz and Sharp. His projection is reasonable, but neither are as firm because Schmaltz is less of a shooter/goal scorer and it may take him a couple more years to come into that, and Sharp will be determined by his games played total.
- L_B_R

You're both correct. I was conservative with the top 6 projections and in retrospect too liberal with the bottom 6 projections. That isn't to say things will even out. Overall, I don't think offense from the forwards will see a drastic fall off. Scoring distribution across lines may be more favorable if players are healthy and play up to their potential (big ifs of course).

You're both correct. I was conservative with the top 6 projections and in retrospect too liberal with the bottom 6 projections. That isn't to say things will even out. Overall, I don't think offense from the forwards will see a drastic fall off. Scoring distribution across lines may be more favorable if players are healthy and play up to their potential (big ifs of course).
- AEL_Fox

I think what could be interesting to watch in terms of individual scoring is who gets the opportunities on the PP with Panarin and Hossa gone. Panarin got premium PP time and a lot of focus in terms of setting up the one timer. Hossa was a figure on the 2nd unit and got decent time. Saad/Sharp will get some of that PP time but depending on how it shakes out maybe someone else gets a bump in opportunity to produce on the PP.

I think what could be interesting to watch in terms of individual scoring is who gets the opportunities on the PP with Panarin and Hossa gone. Panarin got premium PP time and a lot of focus in terms of setting up the one timer. Hossa was a figure on the 2nd unit and got decent time. Saad/Sharp will get some of that PP time but depending on how it shakes out maybe someone else gets a bump in opportunity to produce on the PP.
- breadbag

I imagine Sharp will resume his duties on the PP.

I think what could be interesting to watch in terms of individual scoring is who gets the opportunities on the PP with Panarin and Hossa gone. Panarin got premium PP time and a lot of focus in terms of setting up the one timer. Hossa was a figure on the 2nd unit and got decent time. Saad/Sharp will get some of that PP time but depending on how it shakes out maybe someone else gets a bump in opportunity to produce on the PP.
- breadbag

Remind me: during his first stint with the Hawks, Saad didn't get a lot of PP time, is that correct? I recall that being the case but maybe I'm not remembering correctly. I recall him barely getting any and then eventually get some minutes but wasn't a regular for whatever reason. That seemed to be the case with Panik last year as well.

Bottom line, Saad should be a given on the PP this time around. Sharp has experience so he should see plenty of time, too. Panik is a good option as well, and may by default get a regular role with Hossa and Panarin gone.

Remind me: during his first stint with the Hawks, Saad didn't get a lot of PP time, is that correct? I recall that being the case but maybe I'm not remembering correctly. I recall him barely getting any and then eventually get some minutes but wasn't a regular for whatever reason. That seemed to be the case with Panik last year as well.

Bottom line, Saad should be a given on the PP this time around. Sharp has experience so he should see plenty of time, too. Panik is a good option as well, and may by default get a regular role with Hossa and Panarin gone.
- AEL_Fox

Saad pretty much got 2nd unit time which was about 1.5 minutes per game in 12/13 and was just over 2 minutes in 14/15. He didn't really get more opportunity in Columbus. I think maybe his style of play is just a bigger difference maker 5v5 versus what some of the more finesse players can do with room to move the puck on the PP. Curious to see what role he gets this year.

Last year Panik was given opportunity similar to Saad on unit 2, but the Hawks PP chances were dominated by Kane/Panarin/Toews/AA, with Hossa getting 1:48 per game, Panik 1:38 and Schmaltz 1:02. I could see Sharp finding his way back to point on the PP, maybe depending how the Hawks feel about some of their new D on the PP.

Saad pretty much got 2nd unit time which was about 1.5 minutes per game in 12/13 and was just over 2 minutes in 14/15. He didn't really get more opportunity in Columbus. I think maybe his style of play is just a bigger difference maker 5v5 versus what some of the more finesse players can do with room to move the puck on the PP. Curious to see what role he gets this year.

Last year Panik was given opportunity similar to Saad on unit 2, but the Hawks PP chances were dominated by Kane/Panarin/Toews/AA, with Hossa getting 1:48 per game, Panik 1:38 and Schmaltz 1:02. I could see Sharp finding his way back to point on the PP, maybe depending how the Hawks feel about some of their new D on the PP.
- breadbag

Just to add to that thought about the D on the PP. Hawks D TOI/Game on the PP last year

Keith 3:09
Seabrook 2:41
Campbell 1:36
Forsling 0:56
TVR 0:32

With Campbell and TVR gone, there is opportunity for someone to play the point. Forsling seems likely to get some more minutes.

You're both correct. I was conservative with the top 6 projections and in retrospect too liberal with the bottom 6 projections. That isn't to say things will even out. Overall, I don't think offense from the forwards will see a drastic fall off. Scoring distribution across lines may be more favorable if players are healthy and play up to their potential (big ifs of course).
- AEL_Fox

How do you think the defense will do compared to last year? Murphy should be an improvement over Hammer, but the bottom 3...?

Just to add to that thought about the D on the PP. Hawks D TOI/Game on the PP last year

Keith 3:09
Seabrook 2:41
Campbell 1:36
Forsling 0:56
TVR 0:32

With Campbell and TVR gone, there is opportunity for someone to play the point. Forsling seems likely to get some more minutes.
- breadbag

Thanks for the PP TOI stats! Very helpful.

For the points, Keith and Seabrook are givens. My guess as to other point options are Forsling and Kempny (as far as blueliners); both have hard, accurate shots that neither are afraid to let loose.

Sharp may be an option at the point, too.

[quote=gnosox1986]
Re: Jared Cowen

Done.

the feet, recognition never bloomed.

How do you think the defense will do compared to last year? Murphy should be an improvement over Hammer, but the bottom 3...?
- tvetter

This is just my opinion, so again, anyone with advanced stats that tell a different story are welcome to inject those numbers to this conversation.

2016-17 GOALS - ACTUAL
Keith, 6
Hjalmarsson, 5
Campbell, 5
van Riemsdyk, 5
Seabrook, 3
Kempny, 2
Forsling, 2
Roszival, 1
Oduya, 1
TOTAL = 30

2017-18 GOALS - PROJECTED
Keith, 10
Seabrook, 10
Murphy, 5
Kempny, 5
Forsling, 5
Oesterle/Rutta, 5
Roszival, 0
TOTAL = 40

The projection is based on Keith and Seabrook bouncing back with stronger seasons and overall the projections are fairly conservative. It also depends who the actual 4-5-6 blueliners are and how many games they will play.

Who knows, if Forsling plays an entire season and gets PP time, he could reach 10 goals. Same with Kempny.

I've probably read each and every word concernibg Matt Duchene since the rumours mid season were about the discussions between the Blackhawks and the Avs...mind you they were preliminary and the was a phethora of weird combos going to Coloradq from Darling, Hammer,TvR, DeBrincat and minor pro defender(s) and prospects.

I could never put my finger on why Colorado would take the players mentioned but it is sorta odd that the three Hawk defenders are now gone.

The biggest negative for many teams on Duchene is they simply don't see him as a major impact stand alone player who can take things inot his hands and win games.
Even at the time, the avs were using him on the wing (both sides) to try and generate more offense, so I thought the only way the hawks would be interested would be as Toews wing that was missing.
And the other negative on Duchene is there are teams that don't think that he would be willing to stick around after these last two years of his contract (and no team can open NEW contract negotiations until that final 2018-19 season begins.
and the then there is the matter of whether he plays for about the same six million or decided the open market will get him a bump up.

But you know what?This player I was trying to see as a fit on the wing was one of the best overall faceoff men in the league last year.

I know Joe Sakic wants too much, but eventually this kid is going to move on, and he becomes and instant #1 in Carolina, and many teams IF they are willing to gamble he re-ups....

Watched a lot of games in the 2nd half when I had more time to do so. Kempny made big strides throughout the season and seemed to play with a leash on and feel like he was at times playing (when he had the puck in the D zone) to not do something wrong rather than using his instincts, making a mistake and thus learning from it. Offensively though, he would get up the ice and get to loose pucks with force as well as anyone in the league. I'm expecting a big sophomore season from Kempny and top 4 mins with Seabs.
- Assman22

Totally Agree. Q and Ulf have to allow Kempney and the other young D to play their games to their strengths. We all know that mistakes are made by every defenseman in every game. They will learn by their mistakes, just as Keith and Seabrook did in their youth. We are all just hoping that the addition of Ulf will be the big difference in puck movement and body checking, as opposed to the previous system advocated by Q and Kitch. Crawford better be ready to excel from the get-go or their start could be disastrous and put them behind the eight ball early. He will be a workhorse more than ever and his success just might dictate where the direction of this team will go. I know you can't win the SC in October and November, but the first 2 months will be extremely important to set the tempo for the entire year. It's going to be interesting that's for sure.

There is no more circus trip...The first extended road trip they take is in December around Christmas.
- ToewsdNKanefusd

Thank You......... totally forgot about that.

NHL to reassess hosting '18 draft in Dallas if bathroom bill becomes law
https://www.thescore.com/news/1348025
(via http://thesco.re/theScore_app )

Takin a knee on this one. Not sure why sports get political.

NHL to reassess hosting '18 draft in Dallas if bathroom bill becomes law
https://www.thescore.com/news/1348025
(via http://thesco.re/theScore_app )

Takin a knee on this one. Not sure why sports get political.
- hocktock

Not sure why this is a political issue in the first place.

NHL to reassess hosting '18 draft in Dallas if bathroom bill becomes law
https://www.thescore.com/news/1348025
(via http://thesco.re/theScore_app )

Takin a knee on this one. Not sure why sports get political.
- hocktock

IMHO, as much as it would be nice to keep realms of society separate, it's quite difficult to tease apart politics from sports just as much as it's quite difficult to tease apart economics from sports. They're going to intersect whether or not we want them to.

Also, the NHL's stance on this issue is the league putting their money where their mouth is. If they value and respect diversity in all its forms, then they have to take a genuine stand when those values are threatened. Kudos to them.

This is just my opinion, so again, anyone with advanced stats that tell a different story are welcome to inject those numbers to this conversation.

2016-17 GOALS - ACTUAL
Keith, 6
Hjalmarsson, 5
Campbell, 5
van Riemsdyk, 5
Seabrook, 3
Kempny, 2
Forsling, 2
Roszival, 1
Oduya, 1
TOTAL = 30

2017-18 GOALS - PROJECTED
Keith, 10
Seabrook, 10
Murphy, 5
Kempny, 5
Forsling, 5
Oesterle/Rutta, 5
Roszival, 0
TOTAL = 40

The projection is based on Keith and Seabrook bouncing back with stronger seasons and overall the projections are fairly conservative. It also depends who the actual 4-5-6 blueliners are and how many games they will play.

Who knows, if Forsling plays an entire season and gets PP time, he could reach 10 goals. Same with Kempny.
- AEL_Fox

Sorry, but there is nothing conservative about predicting every single player on Hawks defense to double their goal production from last year.