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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The What Ifs, Part 2
Author Message
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 10 @ 5:21 PM ET
Sorry, but there is nothing conservative about predicting every single player on Hawks defense to double their goal production from last year.
- Antilles

Point taken. I didn't provide context. My angle was that last year's blueliners under performed and those like Keith and Seabrook are expected to rebound while the youngsters are expected to improve with experience and age. So my projections were conservative in terms of Keith and Seabrook rebounding to some degree, not necessarily to prior peak levels. As for the youngsters, projections are modest increases, not huge jumps in production. For example, I could see Forsling eventually being a 10+ goal scorer from the backend but not for another few years.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Aug 10 @ 5:21 PM ET
IMHO, as much as it would be nice to keep realms of society separate, it's quite difficult to tease apart politics from sports just as much as it's quite difficult to tease apart economics from sports. They're going to intersect whether or not we want them to.

Also, the NHL's stance on this issue is the league putting their money where their mouth is. If they value and respect diversity in all its forms, then they have to take a genuine stand when those values are threatened. Kudos to them.

- AEL_Fox


Hogwash. Respecting diversity would mean respecting both those who view gender as determined by chromosomes, and those who view it as determined by brain chemistry. The league is just making a financial decision to pick sides to avoid angering the side more likely to protest and give them PR problems.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 10 @ 5:32 PM ET
Hogwash. Respecting diversity would mean respecting both those who view gender as determined by chromosomes, and those who view it as determined by brain chemistry. The league is just making a financial decision to pick sides to avoid angering the side more likely to protest and give them PR problems.
- Antilles


Why are there sides at all?
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Aug 10 @ 5:33 PM ET
Point taken. I didn't provide context. My angle was that last year's blueliners under performed and those like Keith and Seabrook are expected to rebound while the youngsters are expected to improve with experience and age. So my projections were conservative in terms of Keith and Seabrook rebounding to some degree, not necessarily to prior peak levels. As for the youngsters, projections are modest increases, not huge jumps in production. For example, I could see Forsling eventually being a 10+ goal scorer from the backend but not for another few years.
- AEL_Fox


Individually, each projection is plausible. Projecting all of them to happen in one year is a best case scenario.

I'd also point out, Seabrook has been into double digits just once in his entire career. Keith has just once in the last 7 seasons. Could they both be next year, sure they are still very good players. But I have to disagree that projecting both Seabrook to have the second best season of his career & Keith to have his second best season since 09/10 is conservative.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 10 @ 5:34 PM ET
Hogwash. Respecting diversity would mean respecting both those who view gender as determined by chromosomes, and those who view it as determined by brain chemistry. The league is just making a financial decision to pick sides to avoid angering the side more likely to protest and give them PR problems.
- Antilles

While I agree with your ultimate conclusion (I think businesses rarely, if ever, do the right thing apart from their business interests), there is a logic on the side of the decision:

The law would adversely affect those transgender, forcing them into situations that go against their natures, while satisfying those who view only the results of their chromosomes and their birth certificates.

No law - allowing them to use the facilities corresponding to their natures still allows one to respect the right of both sides to their opinion without allowing one side to discriminate against the other.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Aug 10 @ 5:48 PM ET
While I agree with your ultimate conclusion (I think businesses rarely, if ever, do the right thing apart from their business interests), there is a logic on the side of the decision:

The law would adversely affect those transgender, forcing them into situations that go against their natures, while satisfying those who view only the results of their chromosomes and their birth certificates.

No law - allowing them to use the facilities corresponding to their natures still allows one to respect the right of both sides to their opinion without allowing one side to discriminate against the other.

- StLBravesFan


I agree, most laws on the issue are endorsing one form of thought or the other.

My point is that the NHL, by endorsing one form of thought over another, is not embracing diversity, it's in fact doing the opposite. It's picking a side; and picking the one least likely to negatively effect the bottom line.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 10 @ 5:50 PM ET
I agree, most laws on the issue are endorsing one form of thought or the other.

My point is that the NHL, by endorsing one form of thought over another, is not embracing diversity, it's in fact doing the opposite. It's picking a side; and picking the one least likely to negatively effect the bottom line.

- Antilles


Again... why are there different sides? It boggles my mind that this is even an issue in the U.S.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 10 @ 6:01 PM ET
Why are there sides at all?
- BINGO!



Because that's life. Pick a subject and you'll get different points of views.
matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Aug 10 @ 6:02 PM ET
I agree, most laws on the issue are endorsing one form of thought or the other.

My point is that the NHL, by endorsing one form of thought over another, is not embracing diversity, it's in fact doing the opposite. It's picking a side; and picking the one least likely to negatively effect the bottom line.

- Antilles


Like many issues, this isn't about thoughts. We are all free to think whatever we want to think. The NHL (& previously the NBA WRT North Carolina) isn't taking a position on what people think or what people's opinions are. To their credit, they are taking positions on how people in our free society are being treated. These are cases of government trying to legislate individual identity.

(My apologies for getting into politics but this NHL related too.)

I've heard the arguments in favor of such bills that women don't feel safe in a public bathroom with a trans woman. 1) a trans woman is not the same as a rapist dressed up as a woman to gain entry into a woman's bathroom to perpetrate a crime, that is still illegal. 2) just look at pictures of trans men (born biologically female) and tell me that would feel more safe to them.

Bills like these are purely attempts to make discrimination legal.

I applaud the NHL for taking the stand it has.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 10 @ 6:06 PM ET
Individually, each projection is plausible. Projecting all of them to happen in one year is a best case scenario.

I'd also point out, Seabrook has been into double digits just once in his entire career. Keith has just once in the last 7 seasons. Could they both be next year, sure they are still very good players. But I have to disagree that projecting both Seabrook to have the second best season of his career & Keith to have his second best season since 09/10 is conservative.

- Antilles

Again, good point. Maybe I'm just hoping Ulf will have a big impact on the blueliners and not just how they play defense

Seriously, though, the reality is that Keith and Seabrook likely will score in the 5-10 range and would be hard pressed to get 10+. So Keith may repeat at 6 but I do expect Seabrook to do better than 3.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 10 @ 6:07 PM ET
Because that's life. Pick a subject and you'll get different points of views.
- walleyeb1


I just think it's odd how passionate some people are that they shouldn't share a bathroom with a person with different genitalia. It's bizarre.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 10 @ 6:08 PM ET
Again, good point. Maybe I'm just hoping Ulf will have a big impact on the blueliners and not just how they play defense

Seriously, though, the reality is that Keith and Seabrook likely will score in the 5-10 range and would be hard pressed to get 10+. So Keith may repeat at 6 but I do expect Seabrook to do better than 3.

- AEL_Fox


I don't think Seabrook's production will see much of a bump, if any. Would expect Ulf will help him adapt to being a bit less mobile than he used to be. He should become more effective at shutting down the opposition than he was last year.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 10 @ 6:09 PM ET
Like many issues, this isn't about thoughts. We are all free to think whatever we want to think. The NHL (& previously the NBA WRT North Carolina) isn't taking a position on what people think or what people's opinions are. To their credit, they are taking positions on how people in our free society are being treated. These are cases of government trying to legislate individual identity.

(My apologies for getting into politics but this NHL related too.)

I've heard the arguments in favor of such bills that women don't feel safe in a public bathroom with a trans woman. 1) a trans woman is not the same as a rapist dressed up as a woman to gain entry into a woman's bathroom to perpetrate a crime, that is still illegal. 2) just look at pictures of trans men (born biologically female) and tell me that would feel more safe to them.

Bills like these are purely attempts to make discrimination legal.

I applaud the NHL for taking the stand it has.

- matt_ahrens


Yep.

The Canes opposed it when it came into N.C., and I'm glad the Stars are doing the same
35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Aug 10 @ 7:00 PM ET
I'm already missing Hossa.
steve-hist-sdc
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 12.30.2016

Aug 10 @ 7:06 PM ET
Point taken. I didn't provide context. My angle was that last year's blueliners under performed and those like Keith and Seabrook are expected to rebound while the youngsters are expected to improve with experience and age. So my projections were conservative in terms of Keith and Seabrook rebounding to some degree, not necessarily to prior peak levels. As for the youngsters, projections are modest increases, not huge jumps in production. For example, I could see Forsling eventually being a 10+ goal scorer from the backend but not for another few years.
- AEL_Fox


Not sure how Keith 'underperformed' (at least offensively) seeing as he had the third most points in a season in his career, and Seabrook has only ever had one season where he scored more than 10 goals in the NHL.

Since my expectation is that scoring overall will be down this coming season for the Hawks (not hugely- but still down), and it would involve spreading the wealth around (hopefully) more than the past couple of seasons - that itself should have a flow on effect to all of the Defensemen scoring numbers.

Otoh - that doesn't mean all that much as far as if a Defenseman is an effective player - it is more about what is their role.

And finally ... come on ... goal stats for D? If everyone is doing their job, the optimal situation for a guy shooting from the point is through traffic. Sometimes it finds the back of the net - but most others it can deflect off of someone, sometimes on your own team (which means their goal -your assist) ... and if you shoot as a D outside of shooting through traffic - usually it ends up as a save (if it is even on net in the first place -which it isn't always ... sometimes the wingers occasionally can pressure a D to take shots faster than a D guy wants ... wingers ... they never get any credit - nm that I play wing ... otoh ... nm that I play D when I am not playing W ... but that isn't the point - the point is - is that in the NHL it is like whatever I have done ... on warp speed -still - that is what you do and how D is quantified as effective - not an arbitrary set of figures - and it never ever is goals anyway -for any position. Team game... assist means team scored ... it counts the same as a goal in terms of gauging the team.
Hank_Greenberg
Joined: 09.30.2015

Aug 10 @ 7:47 PM ET
Because that's life. Pick a subject and you'll get different points of views.
- walleyeb1


matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Aug 10 @ 8:01 PM ET

- Hank_Greenberg



yes it is
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Aug 10 @ 8:13 PM ET
Q has been pretty much fine with shots against being high for a few seasons, though. Part of why Crawford should be considered so good is because he sees a good amount of high danger shots.
- L_B_R


Your point about Crawford really hit home for me during the 2015 Cup Final. TB had a lot of great looks and was firing from up the slot. I think it was Marty Biron who identified the same on the NHL Network after Game 3 or 4...High quality chances.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Aug 10 @ 8:27 PM ET
Your point about Crawford really hit home for me during the 2015 Cup Final. TB had a lot of great looks and was firing from up the slot. I think it was Marty Biron who identified the same on the NHL Network after Game 3 or 4...High quality chances.
- Al


he stoned stamkos at least 4-5 times in that series...he was outstanding...but don't dare say that around the craw "haters"...they just can't handle it
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Aug 10 @ 8:29 PM ET
Bears one minute in and a pick 6. Should be a good hockey season.
hocktock
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Over by dere.
Joined: 07.15.2015

Aug 10 @ 8:44 PM ET
Yep.

The Canes opposed it when it came into N.C., and I'm glad the Stars are doing the same

- BINGO!


Reach down between your legs, then you know which toilet to use.

Until they allow women to play they can shut up.
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Aug 10 @ 9:22 PM ET
Reach down between your legs, then you know which toilet to use.

Until they allow women to play they can shut up.

- hocktock



I'll take it a step further.....you are what you are born with (or without).
If there is some other explanation, then EVERYTHNG I learned in school is WRONG!
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 10 @ 9:30 PM ET
Reach down between your legs, then you know which toilet to use.

Until they allow women to play they can shut up.

- hocktock

Biology isn't that simple. Also don't know why you're telling women to shutup - these bathroom laws are not a woman issue specifically.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Aug 10 @ 9:34 PM ET
Biology isn't that simple. Also don't know why you're telling women to shutup - these bathroom laws are not a woman issue specifically.
- L_B_R


Trub with a TD pass. Interesting......
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 10 @ 9:48 PM ET
Biology isn't that simple. Also don't know why you're telling women to shutup - these bathroom laws are not a woman issue specifically.
- L_B_R


I may be wrong but I think hocktock was saying the NHL should shut up until they let women play. Either way I'd rather stick to talking hockey.
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