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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The What Ifs, Part 2
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TyCamScore
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.09.2010

Aug 4 @ 10:43 AM ET
The pissing an moaning about Seabrook's contract has gotten so overblown this past season. He barely got a 1m raise from his last one. What is 1m going to get us? By the time the term is a problem and hes too old, Our window will likely be shut and it won't matter. Sure, he could have take 5 years instead of 8... but we'd still be smashed up against the cap right now, and it would be any better for 4 more years. Seabrook is NOT the problem.
- JRoenick97


Optimistically hoping over here that he comes out and proves everyone wrong.

The dude is dedicated AF to his career and this game.

#7 doesn't need to read zone entry stats floating, a guy of his calibre and IQ knows he was getting torched and (purely speculating) is doing everything he can to remedy that.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 4 @ 10:51 AM ET
Optimistically hoping over here that he comes out and proves everyone wrong.

The dude is dedicated AF to his career and this game.

#7 doesn't need to read zone entry stats floating, a guy of his calibre and IQ knows he was getting torched and (purely speculating) is doing everything he can to remedy that.

- TyCamScore


Players shouldn't be reading stats like that anyway. If anything it'll frustrate them and they'll focus on the wrong things. Coaches and GMs, on the other hand, should look at them over long term trends and adjust systems/personnel usage accordingly.
TyCamScore
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.09.2010

Aug 4 @ 10:57 AM ET
We're less than 60 days away from training camps and I'm still confused what Vegas is doing.

Current Dmen heading into camp if nothing changes:

Garrison
Sbisa
Stoner
McNabb
Merrill
C. Miller (RD)
Engelland (RD)
Theodore
Schmidt (will be signed soon)
Hunt & Reinhert (AHL bound)


That makes 9 regulars with only 2 RD. You drafted that many D George and only 2 can play the right-side? Strange.

I know it's been brought up, but the more I think about it, the more I'm liking that Jon Merrill fellow on that list. He and Murphy are also familiar with each other and could be the start of a solid, young duo moving forward for the Hawks.


TyCamScore
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.09.2010

Aug 4 @ 10:58 AM ET
Players shouldn't be reading stats like that anyway. If anything it'll frustrate them and they'll focus on the wrong things. Coaches and GMs, on the other hand, should look at them over long term trends and adjust systems/personnel usage accordingly.
- BINGO!


Agree. Unfortunately social media probably gets the best of them. It's hard to escape it.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Aug 4 @ 11:05 AM ET
We're less than 60 days away from training camps and I'm still confused what Vegas is doing.

Current Dmen heading into camp if nothing changes:

Garrison
Sbisa
Stoner
McNabb
Merrill
C. Miller (RD)
Engelland (RD)
Theodore
Schmidt (will be signed soon)
Hunt & Reinhert (AHL bound)


That makes 9 regulars with only 2 RD. You drafted that many D George and only 2 can play the right-side? Strange.

I know it's been brought up, but the more I think about it, the more I'm liking that Jon Merrill fellow on that list. He and Murphy are also familiar with each other and could be the start of a solid, young duo moving forward for the Hawks.

- TyCamScore

Schmidt goes to arbitration today. He could end up being cut loose.
TyCamScore
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.09.2010

Aug 4 @ 11:27 AM ET
Schmidt goes to arbitration today. He could end up being cut loose.
- JRoenick97


Eeeek. That would be a big fail by George. Kid has some serious skill.

I think with that process though, both parties are forced to agree to a deal (either 1 or 2 years) which is determined by an arbitrator - no?
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Aug 4 @ 11:32 AM ET
Toews not ranked as a Top 5 Center in the Western Conference. Shows just how far his game has fallen off in the last 2 years, and everyone has taken notice. Hopefully Jonathan Toews realizes this too.
Assman22
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 04.13.2012

Aug 4 @ 11:33 AM ET
We're less than 60 days away from training camps and I'm still confused what Vegas is doing.

I know it's been brought up, but the more I think about it, the more I'm liking that Jon Merrill fellow on that list. He and Murphy are also familiar with each other and could be the start of a solid, young duo moving forward for the Hawks.

- TyCamScore


Yep, getting Merrill or McNabb would be a huge boost to the blueline depth. Butcher too.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Aug 4 @ 11:37 AM ET
Seabrook didn't sign until a year after Saad was gone.
- JRoenick97


Correct but I was trying to point out what a Extra million in hard cap can mean.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 4 @ 11:39 AM ET
Schmidt goes to arbitration today. He could end up being cut loose.
- JRoenick97


Schmidt's hearing was yesterday, so the 48 hour clock is running. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Vegas might just wait for the arbitration ruling.
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Aug 4 @ 12:12 PM ET
Toews not ranked as a Top 5 Center in the Western Conference. Shows just how far his game has fallen off in the last 2 years, and everyone has taken notice. Hopefully Jonathan Toews realizes this too.
- EnzoD


Where was the ranking?
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 4 @ 12:23 PM ET
Can any of the "Stat Pros" on this blog take a snap shot of Toews goals, assists, +/- during the stretch of games where he was scoring at a high rate and then compare that to other players during the same time frame. I believe that was from mid December until late March.

I would be interesting to see how he matched up.

The slow start could have been related to an injury during the World Cup, new linemates, or his traditional slow starts. However if his numbers during the "hot stretch" were among the league leaders it would indicate that his skills have not diminished and the lower overall number can be attributed to other factors and not that he is past his prime.

I do not think he was a league leader during the "hot stretch" but I think that the numbers and his leadership skills and character would indicate he is still a genuine #1 center and a huge asset to the team.

It would be great if we could avoid the "Yes, but he is still far over paid" from this discussion. I think we have beaten that horse to death many times over. This is not a salary cap question.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Aug 4 @ 12:26 PM ET
I think you are, at least...close with this group, or some variation of it. And even though a few questions...it is NOT terrible, a hole or two to improve, but not terrible.

The defence concerns me more. I see the question marks of Kempny, Forsling, Murphy and any of the 5-6 guys really. Outside of Keith and Seabrook there are a LOT of unknowns. Not to mention at what level Keith and Seabrook will be.

To me, the back end is the REAL unknown. Could be OK....might be a sh-- show. The piece or pieces Stan can get with the Hossa $$$$ is really going to be key going forward!

- hawk35


I was focusing on the known quantities up front being much more known this time around offensively.

I get that the D probably has a few more questions, but I don't see Murphy as one of them. He has played 258 career games over 3.5 seasons. The first 1.5 of those seasons he was playing in the bottom pair, but since then has pretty much been the #3D for the Yotes. He has established that he is an NHL Dman and at 24 seems to be getting better year over year. He may need to adjust to the Hawks but he should be fine being in the top 4. What I think fans are going to appreciate is that he plays the body well. He had 200 hits last season in 77 games (Seabrook paced the Hawks with 111)

Seabrook 111 Hits in 79 GP
Kempny 76 Hits in 50 GP
Rozsival 47 Hits in 22 GP
Campbell 43 Hits in 80 GP
Keith 24 Hits in 80 GP
Hjalmarsson 23 Hits in 73 GP
TVR 22 Hits 58 GP
Forsling 16 Hits in 38 GP
Oduya 8 Hits in 15 GP

Not saying he will rack up 200 hits with the way the Hawks play, but he should add some of that physical play that was lacking a bit. I'd wager that a hit from Murphy has a bit more impact than from someone like Campbell or Oduya.

Rutta is a bit unknown but has experience against pros and might surprise in Chicago right away. A strong guy with size, a bit of offensive skill and a decent shot, he might find a home on PP. In his own end I think he isn't as physical as he could be but I've read he uses his stick and long reach well.

Kempny just needs to err on the side of caution a bit more. I think we mostly know what to expect from him. He seems like a 4-5D at this point and should be more comfortable with a year under his belt.

Forsling is maybe going to need more seasoning, but he has some real raw talent. If he puts it together, he could be really solid. I think it was clear why he was a stand out prospect last summer.

There are question marks, but I guess that will make it interesting. I'd rather see the question marks than the worn down D who can't skate anymore.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Aug 4 @ 12:36 PM ET
Can any of the "Stat Pros" on this blog take a snap shot of Toews goals, assists, +/- during the stretch of games where he was scoring at a high rate and then compare that to other players during the same time frame. I believe that was from mid December until late March.

I would be interesting to see how he matched up.

The slow start could have been related to an injury during the World Cup, new linemates, or his traditional slow starts. However if his numbers during the "hot stretch" were among the league leaders it would indicate that his skills have not diminished and the lower overall number can be attributed to other factors and not that he is past his prime.

I do not think he was a league leader during the "hot stretch" but I think that the numbers and his leadership skills and character would indicate he is still a genuine #1 center and a huge asset to the team.

It would be great if we could avoid the "Yes, but he is still far over paid" from this discussion. I think we have beaten that horse to death many times over. This is not a salary cap question.

- -Doh-


He still put up #1C numbers. His 0.81 PPG for the whole season was 16th among NHL C who played more than a handful of games. Once we came back from NHL scoring he was 11th in total points for C. Basically, at his low point in terms of production, he is performing like an average #1C while being better than average defensively. Where he lagged behind is PowerPlay Points and just overall goal scoring. He usually pots a handful more goals.

Edit: just to add, during his hot stretch which I believe was pretty much Feb 1st until the end of the season, he was tied for 7th in C scoring. 30 points in 29 games.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Aug 4 @ 12:44 PM ET
Can any of the "Stat Pros" on this blog take a snap shot of Toews goals, assists, +/- during the stretch of games where he was scoring at a high rate and then compare that to other players during the same time frame. I believe that was from mid December until late March.

I would be interesting to see how he matched up.

The slow start could have been related to an injury during the World Cup, new linemates, or his traditional slow starts. However if his numbers during the "hot stretch" were among the league leaders it would indicate that his skills have not diminished and the lower overall number can be attributed to other factors and not that he is past his prime.

I do not think he was a league leader during the "hot stretch" but I think that the numbers and his leadership skills and character would indicate he is still a genuine #1 center and a huge asset to the team.

It would be great if we could avoid the "Yes, but he is still far over paid" from this discussion. I think we have beaten that horse to death many times over. This is not a salary cap question.

- -Doh-


From 12/15 to 3/1, Toews was 9th in scoring (6th for Cs) with 34 (12-22) points and +7 in 32 games. People ahead of him were:

Mikael Granlund: 15-26-41pts +19
Patrick Kane: 19-21-40pts +9
Brad Marchand: 19-21-40pts +10
Nicklas Backstrom: 11-28-39pts +10
Brent Burns: 14-24-38pts +16
Mark Scheifele: 12-25-37pts +9
Sidney Crosby: 13-21-34pts (tied) +6
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 12-22-34pts (tied) +14
35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Aug 4 @ 12:55 PM ET
Optimistically hoping over here that he comes out and proves everyone wrong.

The dude is dedicated AF to his career and this game.

#7 doesn't need to read zone entry stats floating, a guy of his calibre and IQ knows he was getting torched and (purely speculating) is doing everything he can to remedy that.

- TyCamScore

Quoted for its awesomeness.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 4 @ 1:21 PM ET
We're less than 60 days away from training camps and I'm still confused what Vegas is doing.

Current Dmen heading into camp if nothing changes:

Garrison
Sbisa
Stoner
McNabb
Merrill
C. Miller (RD)
Engelland (RD)
Theodore
Schmidt (will be signed soon)
Hunt & Reinhert (AHL bound)


That makes 9 regulars with only 2 RD. You drafted that many D George and only 2 can play the right-side? Strange.

I know it's been brought up, but the more I think about it, the more I'm liking that Jon Merrill fellow on that list. He and Murphy are also familiar with each other and could be the start of a solid, young duo moving forward for the Hawks.

- TyCamScore
Theodore can go down to the AHL since he's waiver exempt so they only really need to move one of those other guys before the season starts. I'm sure they'd prefer to move two and keep Theodore up, but there's no rush.

Merrill is who I've wanted for a while but McNabb would be good as well though he is UFA after this season so he could potentially only be a rental. The top 3 on that list are not worth the cap space, even with salary retained. Schmidt will probably be awarded a decent contract via arbitration so he may be out of the Hawks price range too.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Aug 4 @ 1:35 PM ET
From 12/15 to 3/1, Toews was 9th in scoring (6th for Cs) with 34 (12-22) points and +7 in 32 games. People ahead of him were:

Mikael Granlund: 15-26-41pts +19
Patrick Kane: 19-21-40pts +9
Brad Marchand: 19-21-40pts +10
Nicklas Backstrom: 11-28-39pts +10
Brent Burns: 14-24-38pts +16
Mark Scheifele: 12-25-37pts +9
Sidney Crosby: 13-21-34pts (tied) +6
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 12-22-34pts (tied) +14

- JRoenick97


Out of morbid curiosity, I looked at the beginning of the season until he took off (10/10 to 12/14). He was 211th in scoring with 4-8-12 points in 22 games and +2.

To finish out the season, he was 87th in scoring form March 2 to the end of the season. 5-7-12 and -2 in 18 games.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 4 @ 2:04 PM ET
There are question marks, but I guess that will make it interesting. I'd rather see the question marks than the worn down D who can't skate anymore.
- breadbag

Totally agree because the coaching staff can further develop question marks into exclamation points but can't do much with someone who is just at the end of their rope due to age and declining physical ability. It's a lot easier to get excited about the potential of question marks than it is about someone who no longer has potential.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Aug 4 @ 2:04 PM ET
Here is some interesting data.

Last year the NHL hit a low in terms of Power Play Opportunities per team per game on average. At 2.99 PPO on average it was the lowest ever.

https://www.hockey-refere...ce.com/leagues/stats.html

PP% for the league was the highest it has been in the last 2 decades. (Maybe due to the faceoff rule changes?)

Would be nice to see the refs call the penalties more often, but just adds to the importance of 5v5 and decreases the importance of special teams.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Aug 4 @ 2:10 PM ET
Totally agree because the coaching staff can further develop question marks into exclamation points but can't do much with someone who is just at the end of their rope due to age and declining physical ability.
- AEL_Fox


I think it is good to have someone who is young and hungry to win too vs a guy who has a cup or two and might be thinking (another one would be nice, but ....)

Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 4 @ 2:22 PM ET
I think it is good to have someone who is young and hungry to win too vs a guy who has a cup or two and might be thinking (another one would be nice, but ....)


- breadbag

More Vin Diesels and less Danny Glovers.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 4 @ 2:39 PM ET
Theodore can go down to the AHL since he's waiver exempt so they only really need to move one of those other guys before the season starts. I'm sure they'd prefer to move two and keep Theodore up, but there's no rush.

Merrill is who I've wanted for a while but McNabb would be good as well though he is UFA after this season so he could potentially only be a rental. The top 3 on that list are not worth the cap space, even with salary retained. Schmidt will probably be awarded a decent contract via arbitration so he may be out of the Hawks price range too.

- L_B_R


Not so sure about that, I'm wondering if Vegas doesn't just wait on the arbitrator's ruling.

LV requested a two-year award on Nate Schmidt at $950K & $1M. Player ask is $2.75M for one year.

-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 4 @ 2:48 PM ET
Out of morbid curiosity, I looked at the beginning of the season until he took off (10/10 to 12/14). He was 211th in scoring with 4-8-12 points in 22 games and +2.

To finish out the season, he was 87th in scoring form March 2 to the end of the season. 5-7-12 and -2 in 18 games.

- JRoenick97



Thank you for the data. (I guess saying thank you is allowed.)

When you look at the start of the season (injured/revolving new linemates?), his hot stretch (more consistent linemates and some urgency?), and the end of the season (when he took his foot off the gas?) it helps to view/assess his performance differently.

I think other factors beside age and mileage on his body were factors in his lower point total. I do not think his skills, strength, or stamina have diminished.

If he is healthy, plays regularly with Saad and Panik, and gets some good power play time I think he will be a point per game player with a big +/- this year.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 4 @ 2:50 PM ET
From 12/15 to 3/1, Toews was 9th in scoring (6th for Cs) with 34 (12-22) points and +7 in 32 games. People ahead of him were:

Mikael Granlund: 15-26-41pts +19
Patrick Kane: 19-21-40pts +9
Brad Marchand: 19-21-40pts +10
Nicklas Backstrom: 11-28-39pts +10
Brent Burns: 14-24-38pts +16
Mark Scheifele: 12-25-37pts +9
Sidney Crosby: 13-21-34pts (tied) +6
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 12-22-34pts (tied) +14

- JRoenick97


Well done. Thank you.
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