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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The What Ifs, Part 2
Author Message
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 4 @ 3:18 PM ET
Not so sure about that, I'm wondering if Vegas doesn't just wait on the arbitrator's ruling.

LV requested a two-year award on Nate Schmidt at $950K & $1M. Player ask is $2.75M for one year.

- walleyeb1

Oh, I think LV will wait but Schmidt should be awarded close to the $2.75M - that pretty much is his value currently, but that also would probably be too much for the Hawks. At least, it would limit them a bit on any forward pick-ups they might want + the arbitration would likely only be for a year and Schmidt would be UFA after.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 4 @ 3:19 PM ET
Thank you for the data. (I guess saying thank you is allowed.)

When you look at the start of the season (injured/revolving new linemates?), his hot stretch (more consistent linemates and some urgency?), and the end of the season (when he took his foot off the gas?) it helps to view/assess his performance differently.

I think other factors beside age and mileage on his body were factors in his lower point total. I do not think his skills, strength, or stamina have diminished.

If he is healthy, plays regularly with Saad and Panik, and gets some good power play time I think he will be a point per game player with a big +/- this year.

- -Doh-

Remember that at the very end of the season Toews was once again playing with revolving linemates since Schmaltz was moved down to center Kane after Anisimov was injured.

All that said, I do think Toews' is still going to start slow (he did that even with Saad/Hossa) but not the same level as last season, and his PPG is still likely to be around .8 for the season as that seems realistic for his age/usage.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 4 @ 3:39 PM ET
Oh, I think LV will wait but Schmidt should be awarded close to the $2.75M - that pretty much is his value currently, but that also would probably be too much for the Hawks. At least, it would limit them a bit on any forward pick-ups they might want + the arbitration would likely only be for a year and Schmidt would be UFA after.
- L_B_R


Since Schmidt took it to arbitration Vegas gets to select the term (1 or 2 years) of the deal on the amount that arbitrator decides.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 4 @ 4:09 PM ET
Remember that at the very end of the season Toews was once again playing with revolving linemates since Schmaltz was moved down to center Kane after Anisimov was injured.

All that said, I do think Toews' is still going to start slow (he did that even with Saad/Hossa) but not the same level as last season, and his PPG is still likely to be around .8 for the season as that seems realistic for his age/usage.

- L_B_R


You could be correct. I think it will be between .9 and 1.0 PPG. That would not be uncharted territory for Toews when healthy and playing with good linemates.
08' .84
09' .84
10' .89
11' .95
12' .97
13' 1.02
14' .89
15' .81
16' .73
17' .81
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 4 @ 4:26 PM ET
I am still scratching my head at why Las Vegas GM George McPhee didn’t take three goalies, as it would seem that third one would have been any easy trade off.
The draft rules required the GKnights to take eight defenders, so they did.
As Bowman said at the draft RD are a bit difficult to find, so they have value.
Those LD they have well, I see three who have had to in the past play off hand on the right side, so it is probably less of an issue.
Most teams carry seven all year, right?
Having 11 defenders with one way contracts (10 now, 11 after the Nate Schmidt ruling) is a clear cut sign they lose someone they send down before opening day, and they probably try and line up trades for others IF they can get young forwards/defenders.
The wings want one.
The isles will want one
the Avs will want one
and who knows maybe the day after game one, the Hawks will get one….
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Aug 4 @ 4:40 PM ET
Here is some interesting data.

Last year the NHL hit a low in terms of Power Play Opportunities per team per game on average. At 2.99 PPO on average it was the lowest ever.

https://www.hockey-refere...ce.com/leagues/stats.html

PP% for the league was the highest it has been in the last 2 decades. (Maybe due to the faceoff rule changes?)

Would be nice to see the refs call the penalties more often, but just adds to the importance of 5v5 and decreases the importance of special teams.

- breadbag

Further points to zebras losing the peas in their whistles. PO even more egregious.

And the league has low-hanging fruit; to increase viewers. Easy dots connection.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 4 @ 4:49 PM ET
You could be correct. I think it will be between .9 and 1.0 PPG. That would not be uncharted territory for Toews when healthy and playing with good linemates.
08' .84
09' .84
10' .89
11' .95
12' .97
13' 1.02
14' .89
15' .81
16' .73
17' .81

- -Doh-


If we're just looking at goals:

Year. T. 5x5. PP. SH. OT

16-17. 21. 14. 6. 0. 1
15-16. 28. 13. 6. 4. 5
14-15. 28. 19. 6. 2. 1
13-14. 28. 20. 5. 3
12-13. 23. 19. 2. 2
11-12. 29. 23. 5. 1
10-11. 32. 20. 10. 1. 1
09-10. 25. 15. 9. 1

What's fallen off is the goals when the game is mostly played - and when your normal linemates - are most important - 5x5 goals - even in the short season - from around 20 plus per season to 13 and 14. (I didn't look for ATOI for the various strengths). PP goals hold, SHG and OTG are a crap shoot - but 5x5 is where he needs to come back, goal-wise.

Maybe Saad brings that part of his game back.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 4 @ 4:56 PM ET
I am still scratching my head at why Las Vegas GM George McPhee didn’t take three goalies, as it would seem that third one would have been any easy trade off.
The draft rules required the GKnights to take eight defenders, so they did.
As Bowman said at the draft RD are a bit difficult to find, so they have value.
Those LD they have well, I see three who have had to in the past play off hand on the right side, so it is probably less of an issue.
Most teams carry seven all year, right?
Having 11 defenders with one way contracts (10 now, 11 after the Nate Schmidt ruling) is a clear cut sign they lose someone they send down before opening day, and they probably try and line up trades for others IF they can get young forwards/defenders.
The wings want one.
The isles will want one
the Avs will want one

and who knows maybe the day after game one, the Hawks will get one….

- wiz1901


Maybe, just maybe, he's not the genius everyone made him out to be for two weeks before the expansion draft
Omahawk
Joined: 03.29.2013

Aug 5 @ 1:42 AM ET
I'm with you Wiz. Vegas grabbed mostly garbage. Shea Theodore was a gift. The Islanders trade was excellent for McPhee. But a lot of the other guys they took are awful.

They had an excellent draft and full marks for that. But this "side deal" shenanigans was somewhat ridiculous.

I give Ken Holland of Detroit credit. He said adamantly, no side deals. Take one of our exposed players and we will move on.

wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 5 @ 10:32 AM ET
I'm with you Wiz. Vegas grabbed mostly garbage. Shea Theodore was a gift. The Islanders trade was excellent for McPhee. But a lot of the other guys they took are awful.

They had an excellent draft and full marks for that. But this "side deal" shenanigans was somewhat ridiculous.

I give Ken Holland of Detroit credit. He said adamantly, no side deals. Take one of our exposed players and we will move on.

- Omahawk


Well, they wanted picks and in the next two years they added four 2nd rounders, two 3rd rounder and to 5th rounders and an extra 4th.
They really weren't looking to win now, but it is clear that abother couple teams might finish behind them.
they have to see seats. And they can't be a complete joke for the paying ticket holders who live there, and can't be a game to game team in the midst of a blowout.

and I also think they had lottle interest in drafting marquee names that when they had to be re-signed as serviciable "top line" players would start asking for that yop line money.

and the coaching staff never worked together and some never met each other!

but there were a few players I would have that they passed one where no deals where in place.
As a self proclaimed draft historian, Vegas got SO MUCH more than any other team, and the original expansion 1966-67 saw guys like geoff Powis as major gets and the six new clubbs basically signed old vets that were unattached from the old Western pro league to start with.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 5 @ 1:35 PM ET
Well, they wanted picks and in the next two years they added four 2nd rounders, two 3rd rounder and to 5th rounders and an extra 4th.
They really weren't looking to win now, but it is clear that abother couple teams might finish behind them.
they have to see seats. And they can't be a complete joke for the paying ticket holders who live there, and can't be a game to game team in the midst of a blowout.

and I also think they had lottle interest in drafting marquee names that when they had to be re-signed as serviciable "top line" players would start asking for that yop line money.

and the coaching staff never worked together and some never met each other!

but there were a few players I would have that they passed one where no deals where in place.
As a self proclaimed draft historian, Vegas got SO MUCH more than any other team, and the original expansion 1966-67 saw guys like geoff Powis as major gets and the six new clubbs basically signed old vets that were unattached from the old Western pro league to start with.

- wiz1901


Thought he could have put together a pretty decent team, and traded off guys to get those picks or more at the TDL when teams will pay more.

As far as the picks, not sure this was the best year to have 3 #1s, and a bunch of others, and not sure about next year.

I think I would have put together a team that could win some games, get off on the right foot, and swap some of those guys over the next 2 or 3 TDLs, and spread the extra picks out a bit.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 5 @ 2:36 PM ET
Arbitrator awards Nate Schmidt two years at a $2.25M AAV

https://twitter.com/fried...status/893902421679845376
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 5 @ 3:01 PM ET
Arbitrator awards Nate Schmidt two years at a $2.25M AAV


- walleyeb1

The cost is as expected (closer to Schmidt's ask) but the two years makes it more interesting and now he's an easier trade asset.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 5 @ 3:03 PM ET
As far as the picks, not sure this was the best year to have 3 #1s, and a bunch of others, and not sure about next year.
- vabeachbear


The key was to have them in the top 15 in 2017, where there seemed to be very listle difference or consensus on who you take at 5 and past...it could have been ANYBODY picked in any order this year, except I would have to think Foote would have been at best #15 (chosen 14) and Erik Brännström was Vegas reach who they liked more than most.
I would have called Juuso Välimäki #14 and Kristian Vesalainen at #15 (as my published mock draft showed).

I guess what I am saying is that with the top 15 picks this draft, you had the significant CHANCE of getting serviable NHLer player and the althought the upside was in question, they probably play if they dedicate themselves to trying to do so.

I think Vegas also though it terms of the top 15, so they only traded for the teams drafting there.

Not one can say right now which 2017 kid will actually be the best all around talent; I just have a feeling majority of the defenders are going to flatline unless they really work their tussies and raise their games.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 5 @ 3:14 PM ET
Nate Schmidt would be a great get for the hawks if the price was right.
He showed he could play in the third pairing with oprik, and then didn't whine when made a 7th with the Shattenkirk deal and came back and had a good playoff - enough to say at six foot, 190lbs. he can handle top four minutes.
It would be two years cost controlled for hawks.

It would stifle a younger guy's minutes, but you compete, right?

and the cost....I don't think those hawk-from-Vegas future consideratuions are him....
Hawkytalk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Frankfort, IL
Joined: 06.26.2012

Aug 5 @ 3:33 PM ET
Nate Schmidt would be a great get for the hawks if the price was right.
He showed he could play in the third pairing with oprik, and then didn't whine when made a 7th with the Shattenkirk deal and came back and had a good playoff - enough to say at six foot, 190lbs. he can handle top four minutes.
It would be two years cost controlled for hawks.

It would stifle a younger guy's minutes, but you compete, right?

and the cost....I don't think those hawk-from-Vegas future consideratuions are him....

- wiz1901


Just have to throw this out there. Jim Rose of ABC was just interviewed during the Cubs game in the booth with Kasper and Deshais. He said that the Blackhawks never lead in the series vs Nashville. That is incorrect. The Blackhawks were leading 2-0 after 2 periods in game 3 in Nashville. It never ceases to amaze me how inaccurate some of these sportscasters are, considering the GOBS of money these guys make. He was boasting about covering that series and how he expects a big comeback year for our Hawks. Hey Rose, do your homework before you make inaccurate comments on national TV.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Aug 5 @ 4:05 PM ET
Just have to throw this out there. Jim Rose of ABC was just interviewed during the Cubs game in the booth with Kasper and Deshais. He said that the Blackhawks never lead in the series vs Nashville. That is incorrect. The Blackhawks were leading 2-0 after 2 periods in game 3 in Nashville. It never ceases to amaze me how inaccurate some of these sportscasters are, considering the GOBS of money these guys make. He was boasting about covering that series and how he expects a big comeback year for our Hawks. Hey Rose, do your homework before you make inaccurate comments on national TV.
- Hawkytalk

Jim Rose, one of the worst "sportscasters" ever in ChiTown.

It would be best he sticks with hoops, only. Just like Haugh and pigskin. Yeah, that Haugh. The assclown who for years said the 'Hawks made a mistake in '10 keeping Hammer over Nemo.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 5 @ 4:08 PM ET
The cost is as expected (closer to Schmidt's ask) but the two years makes it more interesting and now he's an easier trade asset.
- L_B_R


Yeah that's why I figured Vegas would wait on the ruling, since Schmidt took it to arbitration they got to set the term.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 5 @ 4:25 PM ET
Add Islanders defensive prospect Doyle Somerby to the list of college prospects that intend to test the open market past August 15th. His agent, Brent Peterson, told Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe that there could be as many as five other teams could be interested in Somerby’s services. The 23-year-old stay-at-home rearguard has spent the past four years at Boston University and captained the team in his senior season.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 5 @ 6:08 PM ET
Add Islanders defensive prospect Doyle Somerby to the list of college prospects that intend to test the open market past August 15th. His agent, Brent Peterson, told Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe that there could be as many as five other teams could be interested in Somerby’s services. The 23-year-old stay-at-home rearguard has spent the past four years at Boston University and captained the team in his senior season.
- walleyeb1

If he plays a solid game as a stay-at-home defender, then he's definitely worth pursuing to at least develop in Rockford and maybe grow to play 3rd pair. At 6'5" Somerby would add some good size on the back end. IIRC, Krys is the only Hawks prospect to play for BU so maybe he has some leverage to persuade Somerby to consider the Hawks.

It could just be due to how the Harvard players are hunched over, but Somerby looks like Chara's size compared to them.

Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 5 @ 6:28 PM ET
Eklund rumor on the homepage so take it FWIW: Flyers would send Sanheim + 3rd rounder to Habs for Pacioretty. If Bowman could somehow keep the team cap compliant, would any of you trade one of our top prospects + 3rd rounder for Pacioretty to play LW with Kane? Of course, depends on the prospect.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Aug 5 @ 6:51 PM ET
Eklund rumor on the homepage so take it FWIW: Flyers would send Sanheim + 3rd rounder to Habs for Pacioretty. If Bowman could somehow keep the team cap compliant, would any of you trade one of our top prospects + 3rd rounder for Pacioretty to play LW with Kane? Of course, depends on the prospect.
- AEL_Fox

That doesn't make sense for either of those teams.

And if the Habs were looking for high quality d-prospects to trade for, then the Hawks don't have any in the quality/age range of Sanheim. It would take more thrown in from the Hawks, if that's even the basis of a return. MaxPac should pull in much more in general, though imo.
steve-hist-sdc
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 12.30.2016

Aug 5 @ 6:53 PM ET
Just have to throw this out there. Jim Rose of ABC was just interviewed during the Cubs game in the booth with Kasper and Deshais. He said that the Blackhawks never lead in the series vs Nashville. That is incorrect. The Blackhawks were leading 2-0 after 2 periods in game 3 in Nashville. It never ceases to amaze me how inaccurate some of these sportscasters are, considering the GOBS of money these guys make. He was boasting about covering that series and how he expects a big comeback year for our Hawks. Hey Rose, do your homework before you make inaccurate comments on national TV.
- Hawkytalk



I still love Danny Roan - he of the 'there are only 20,000 Hawk fans in Chicago and no one else cares about them' (paraphrased...) in the 80's to being all over them now - pathetic, and guys that were fans in the 80's probably remember dismissive attitudes like that.

Although my favorite sportscaster fail (another Chicago guy at the time - but working for ESPN), was doing a Canucks-Wings game (this was back when Bure was on the Nucks) - and made the comment 'could this be a preview of the SCF?' At the time Detroit was in the Western Conference ... so it was like - um, yeh ... no.
DK002
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Evanston, IL
Joined: 06.12.2012

Aug 5 @ 7:42 PM ET
Jim Rose, one of the worst "sportscasters" ever in ChiTown.

It would be best he sticks with hoops, only. Just like Haugh and pigskin. Yeah, that Haugh. The assclown who for years said the 'Hawks made a mistake in '10 keeping Hammer over Nemo.

- blackhawk24


Can't stand Rose either...nice enough guy...but stick to what you know Jim and its not hockey. What did ABC get like 12 Cub games this year so they could trumpet their nightly news and schedule...not to mention annoy the crap out of the announcers in the booth with the dropins...

...same with Haugh. Haugh seems obsessed right now with Cutler going to Miami to play for Gase...who cares.

Cubs need to get it together...still look out of sink - that game against the Dbacks the other day was brutal...and I mean CJ Edwards. Sox have the farm system now and can start bringing up guys slowly. Meanwhile with that fantastic Bears squad coming up here in the next few weeks...can't wait for puck drop.

Hawks still need defense and a LW for Kane. Be interested to see what Stan can do with Hossa's cap hit. Do the Hawks see how it goes and try to get two decent vets at the TDL with the money?
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Aug 5 @ 7:47 PM ET
Patrick Kane said he's been training with Ryan Hartman and Vinnie Hinostroza in Chicago this summer. #Blackhawks
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