It almost doesn't matter how the team wins the game as long as they keep doing it.

Shot's sure don't equal goals either. Edmonton and Montreal highest shot totals and lowest goal totals.
- manvanfan

Absolutely. This analysis could get way more in depth if we looked at shooting percentages and scoring chances instead of just looking at "shots". I guess what I'm trying to highlight here is player deployment. A good coach can only put his players in the best situations to succeed. He can't make the plays for them.

Do you think it was possible that the Canucks would score 6 goals and both Sedin's get zero points.
- Beatle_john

The Sedins drag the team down. It would have been 9-1 if they weren't playing.

Hey guys... I did a thing.

I wanted to do a quick check on possession numbers to see why Green is playing certain players so much (Sutter, for instance, led all forwards in even strength ice time last night but he has the worst possession numbers of any forward on the team).

I know a lot of you hate analytics, but stay with me. While I think Corsi is a relatively decent way to measure possession, I don't like it on it's own as it doesn't account for zone starts. So I took a look at the corsi numbers for the Canucks, but I adjusted them for Offensive Zone Start percentages and Face Off Win percentage. Theoretically, if you are starting most of your shifts in the ozone and gaining possession off the face off, you should have a good corsi percentage.

Here's the formula: Corsi%/(5on5 Ozone Start % + 5on5 FO %)

For the forwards, I used the 5on5 FO% for the regular centre on each line (Bo, Henrik, Sutter, Burmi). For Dmen, I used the team 5on5 FO%.

Here is what I found:

Name Adjusted Possession
Tanev 55.8
Sutter 51.6
Dorsett 51.1
Gagner 50.4
Stecher 50.0
Granlund 49.1
Burmi 48.0
Hutton 48.0
Horvat 48.0
Sven 47.4
Daniel 46.8
Del Zotto 46.8
Henrik 46.7
Virtanen 45.9
Boeser 45.1
Pouliot 44.7
Vanek 43.0
Guddy 41.9

Tanev, we all know, is a possession machine and an analytics darling. Gudbranson, well he's got his intangibles.

The guys that can drive possession, independently of where they are starting the shift, are getting the most ice time at evens from Green. Last night, Sutter, Granlund, and Dorsett played 16:42, 16:32, and 14:50 respectively. The next highest forward at even strength was Bo with 12:28. This makes sense, as the Sutter line was matched up against Ovechkin last night. If they can continue to drive possession like this against the other team's star players, it should bode well for the Canucks moving forward.

By contrast, the Sedins got less than 10 mintues at even strength last night, with the majority of their starts coming in Washington's zone. They have the highest unadjusted corsi on the team but it would seem that they lose possession more often than not.

Gagner seems to be a bit of an outlier here. His numbers suggest he drives possession, but Green played him under 10 minutes at even strength last night. Still... I don't think he's as bad as some people think (although certainly not worth his contract at this point)

Anyway, just a little food for thought on your Friday morning.

/end essay
- nucks_94

I stopped reading after corsi.

I wish I had access to some of the data that Mike Kelly uses, as I agree more with his stance on where the shots are coming from. He has a ranking of shots from the slots (shot quality), which I think is more valuable to track than all shots

Montreal Canadiens:
3rd in shot volume
27th in shot quality
31st in goals

Quality > Quantity.

— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) October 21, 2017

- WhiteLie

I totally agree. Even things as if the goalie is screened. (impossible to track). Highest shooting percentage last year was 10.5%. 9 teams right now shooting over that. TB and TML shooting at 13%.

Absolutely. This analysis could get way more in depth if we looked at shooting percentages and scoring chances instead of just looking at "shots". I guess what I'm trying to highlight here is player deployment. A good coach can only put his players in the best situations to succeed. He can't make the plays for them.
- nucks_94

Definitely. Tessier has a good blog today about Maurice's use of Matt Hendricks.

Is everyone drinking the kool-aid right now? I dont know where this "play the kids" narrative is coming from. Sven seems to be the only young player getting noticeably more icetime and some here dont consider him that young

Bo is averaging 2 seconds more per game than last season
Granlund 5 seconds more
Boeser nearly a minute less than last year
Virtanen 13 seconds less per game than last year

Basically, the 5 minute drop in icetime that the Sedin's are seeing is transferring over to Dorsett who has seen a 5 minute/game jump. Sedins still have the largest PP TOI, which has increased from last year
- WhiteLie

Because last year the average time on ice (ATOI) for forwards was lead by these four players, that's not happening this year, that's what I meant.

Henrik 19:02
Sutter 18:48
Eriksson 18:41
Daniel 18:23

Followed by Horvat, Granlund and Jannik Hansen.

FYI....this year it's...

Horvat
Sutter
Baertschi
Boeser

I stopped reading after corsi.
- Marwood

I stopped reading after corsi.
- Marwood

Hey, reading isn't for everyone.

Hey, reading isn't for everyone.
- nucks_94

I stopped reading after corsi.
- Marwood

I stopped reading after i did a thing.... usually that means bad things and i don't want to be an accomplice...

Because last year the average time on ice (ATOI) for forwards was lead by these four players, that's not happening this year, that's what I meant.

Henrik 19:02
Sutter 18:48
Eriksson 18:41
Daniel 18:23

Followed by Horvat, Granlund and Jannik Hansen.
- LeftCoaster

But the kids are still being played almost exactly the same amount. The difference between WD last year and TG this year is he is giving more of the Sedin minutes to 4th liners (largely because last year's 4th liners were Chaput/Megna/Skille/Gaunce).

I understand that you like to see different names at the top, but do we all forget the ribbing we were giving WD for giving Dorsett the most icetime when the team was down a goal? That was incompetence, but now that DD is burying his chances, we are all fine with it

The Sedins drag the team down. It would have been 9-1 if they weren't playing.
- Marwood

This is true.

Gagner looks about the same as he did in EDM>

But the kids are still being played almost exactly the same amount. The difference between WD last year and TG this year is he is giving more of the Sedin minutes to 4th liners (largely because last year's 4th liners were Chaput/Megna/Skille/Gaunce).

I understand that you like to see different names at the top, but do we all forget the ribbing we were giving WD for giving Dorsett the most icetime when the team was down a goal? That was incompetence, but now that DD is burying his chances, we are all fine with it
- WhiteLie

He's taken ice away from older players and spread it out amongst younger players. Boeser obviously wasn't available last year but the point is the team is not relying so heavily on one old line to score.

The team is made up of a largely different group but imo WD would be playing Boeser as much as Green is, Desjardin had no trust in younger players until they earned it. Green just put Boeser out after sitting for two games and boom he's 4th highest in average time on ice.

It's not really something to debate about, the Sedins playing less is what I'm most happy about. 73% of their zone starts are in the O zone, they just can't keep up anymore.

Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC 14m14 minutes ago
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Garrison (LV) on waivers today

Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC 14m14 minutes ago
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Garrison (LV) on waivers today
- VanHockeyGuy

GRIFFIN REINHART ON WAIVERS TOO! He's only 24 and would be free.


SCRAPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


and now he is off waivers?

Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC 8m8 minutes ago
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Apparently, that Reinhart move is incorrect. Garrison is on waivers.
8 replies 14 retweets 26 likes

NO! Going to miss out on a hometown boy.

But the kids are still being played almost exactly the same amount. The difference between WD last year and TG this year is he is giving more of the Sedin minutes to 4th liners (largely because last year's 4th liners were Chaput/Megna/Skille/Gaunce).

I understand that you like to see different names at the top, but do we all forget the ribbing we were giving WD for giving Dorsett the most icetime when the team was down a goal? That was incompetence, but now that DD is burying his chances, we are all fine with it
- WhiteLie

Maybe it's a question of quality instead of quantity of TOI?

Putting our young(ish) players on the ice in critical moments where before the usual suspects were sent out.

I don't know but it sure feels like the team is shifting away from the style of play we have come to expect.

GRIFFIN REINHART ON WAIVERS TOO! He's only 24 and would be free.


SCRAPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


and now he is off waivers?
- manvanfan

Bob McKenzie‏Verified account
@TSNBobMcKenzie
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VGK has put Jason Garrison on waivers. Griffin Reinhart not on waivers but going to CHI AHL on conditioning stint.

Bob McKenzie‏Verified account
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VGK has put Jason Garrison on waivers. Griffin Reinhart not on waivers but going to CHI AHL on conditioning stint.
- VanHockeyGuy

(frank) I SEE THAT NOW! (frank)!

Corey Pronman‏Verified account @coreypronman 21h21 hours ago
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3 goals 5 points for Elias. One of best SHL games I've ever seen from a teenager.

Tanev 2.0
https://twitter.com/corey...status/923915506691829762

Corey Pronman‏Verified account @coreypronman 14h14 hours ago
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New Jersey prospect Nikita Popugaev has left the WHL for Russia for personal reasons http://pgcougars.com/arti...tement-on-nikita-popugaev …
0 replies 3 retweets 8 likes

He's taken ice away from older players and spread it out amongst younger players. Boeser obviously wasn't available last year but the point is the team is not relying so heavily on one old line to score.

The team is made up of a largely different group but imo WD would be playing Boeser as much as Green is, Desjardin had no trust in younger players until they earned it. Green just put Boeser out after sitting for two games and boom he's 4th highest in average time on ice.

It's not really something to debate about, the Sedins playing less is what I'm most happy about. 73% of their zone starts are in the O zone, they just can't keep up anymore.
- LeftCoaster

This is only thing I disagree with. The Sedin/Loui icetime is going to Dorsett, Vanek, Gagner. The core "young guys" from last year are nearly the same, and I am including the 9 games Boeser had last year. Its nice that the kids are more visible this year and playing well, but I figure this honeymoon phase (as someone called it) with TG will come to an end soon

The Sedin drop off is scary, less minutes and more PP yet nothing happening

Maybe it's a question of quality instead of quantity of TOI?

Putting our young(ish) players on the ice in critical moments where before the usual suspects were sent out.

I don't know but it sure feels like the team is shifting away from the style of play we have come to expect.
- bloatedmosquito

I am not sure I can comment on quality. Someone was saying the Sedin's are getting the cushy O-Zone starts, and the top 6 PP icetimes among forwards are Sedin, Sedin, Baertschi, Vanek, Boeser, Gagner.

I do think the kids are more noticeable, and obviously are the point leaders. I just think its worth noting that numbers seem to suggest that TG relies on veterans as much as WD

https://www.pensionplanpu...yth-of-the-two-horse-race

This is a really really good article about EP. Written way back in May.

If you don't read it or can't read. Short version
So to recap, these numbers would ideally have better variable control, but I feel like they paint a decent general picture of the types of players these 3 will become:

Nico Hischier: approximately 62.64 points per 82 games at peak

Nolan Patrick: approximately 57.46 points per 82 games at peak (I have no doubt this number would be higher in a non-injury filled season)

Elias Pettersson: approximately 87.99 points per 82 games at peak

And while I will reiterate that I expect Patrick's career high to be better than that for the reasons I've described, if you have a sense of "what! that's it??" I will ask you to keep in mind that a recent 1st overall pick named Ryan Nugent Hopkins has a career high pts/82 of 57.4.

This is only thing I disagree with. The Sedin/Loui icetime is going to Dorsett, Vanek, Gagner. The core "young guys" from last year are nearly the same, and I am including the 9 games Boeser had last year. Its nice that the kids are more visible this year and playing well, but I figure this honeymoon phase (as someone called it) with TG will come to an end soon

The Sedin drop off is scary, less minutes and more PP yet nothing happening
- WhiteLie

Giving them enough rope to hang themselves perhaps. Hopefully that quality ice time isn't a directive from TL and Co.

Is everyone drinking the kool-aid right now? I dont know where this "play the kids" narrative is coming from. Sven seems to be the only young player getting noticeably more icetime and some here dont consider him that young

Bo is averaging 2 seconds more per game than last season
Granlund 5 seconds more
Boeser nearly a minute less than last year
Virtanen 13 seconds less per game than last year

Basically, the 5 minute drop in icetime that the Sedin's are seeing is transferring over to Dorsett who has seen a 5 minute/game jump. Sedins still have the largest PP TOI, which has increased from last year
- WhiteLie

I think TG is just trying to hold the kids- JV, BB (maybe even Stecher and Pouliot) back a little. Guessing they are receiving lots of coaching and video feed back on their play. TG always has some great lines in his pressers about playing the right way.

its been a nice October but a lot of games ahead of us. how often have we had a 4 game win streak over the last 5 years? this is fun.

I think TG is just trying to hold the kids- JV, BB (maybe even Stecher and Pouliot) back a little. Guessing they are receiving lots of coaching and video feed back on their play. TG always has some great lines in his pressers about playing the right way.

its been a nice October but a lot of games ahead of us. how often have we had a 4 game win streak over the last 5 years? this is fun.
- hillbillydeluxe

Last Year to start the season we were playoff bound.... don't be too disappointed if it all comes tumbling down.