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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Next Year Will Look Very Similar to this Year
Author Message
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 9 @ 4:55 PM ET
If Bowman’s comments are to be taken as the true path they intend to follow, then it is code for “tank and let the smoke clear after next season”.

It is the only way back, and I applaud them if this is indeed what the plan is.

A poor season this year and next ensures two better than what we have been accustomed to first round picks. Couple that with moving some players for more picks and refining who stays and who goes from the younger player group will ultimately bring into focus where the real missing parts are.

But behind it all must be a direction for what kind of team they want to be. This to me may be the most important thing to resolve. It is clear to me anyway that a team built purely around skill and speed is not enough. There must be a balance that includes size, grit, and above all, the abandonment of perimeter and one and done rush hockey.

So lets all raise a glass to a horrible finish to the next two seasons, and hope a new and effective identity and plan for the future are in the works.

- Return of the Roar

I agree with this perspective wholeheartedly.

1) Draft well in the next two summers and see if 1-2 are not only sure-fire NHLers but are able to step in sooner rather than later into key roles.
2) Identify who from the 25 and under set are worth building around; jettison those who aren't building blocks for draft picks and/or new prospects.
3) Bank on the current youngsters like Saad, Murphy, Debrincat, Schmaltz, Hayden, etc. to grow and reach their potential.
4) Determine the status of the veterans like Toews and Seabrook in terms of health and see if custom workouts and off-season regimens can get them back on track to be solid contributors.
5) Redefine the core based on 1-4 above.
6) Strive for balance as you said: good mix of speed, skill, and finesse with power, grit, and pushback.

Someone else mentioned it, but I could live with this season and next being growth years (i.e. no playoffs) if it leads to a new wave of championship caliber play for another run of 6-8 seasons starting in 2019-20.

Of course, the veteran core will be older and quite possibly further regressed if they don't right their respective ships so that could play a factor in whether a restock and reload will pay dividends once we hit the 2020's.
WiscoReg
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.28.2017

Feb 9 @ 4:59 PM ET
Glad any businesses you’re involved in have good things automatically happen.

In all companies I’ve been associated with (and, as a CPA who use to be in public practice I’ve been involved with many) - large and small - even with excellent external factors - things don’t happen unless people inside make them happen.

- StLBravesFan



You're acting as if McD reinvented the wheel and is a gift to this organization. He is a savvy marketing guy, but back to the original point I was making in that he stepped into a gift wrapped situation and did logical moves that 90% of sports management already had in place at their respective teams and the hawks did not do to their archaic management systems of dollar bill. Having generational teams that went on to win 3 cups is an easy sell in any facet of blackhawk business. As a CPA I would think you would know how a superior product comparative to your competition is a difference maker in any industry, let alone the intensified niche market of professional sports. We can agree to disagree tho and get back to things that matter like potential player movement. Cheers
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 9 @ 5:03 PM ET
I don't agree with you that these players have hit their ceiling already. I am actually pretty confident that Schmaltz, Cat, and Kampf will actually get better...and I think Hayden also will get better...
- ToewsdNKanefusd

I'd have to agree. To me the keepers of the youngsters currently on the team are Saad, Schmaltz, Debrincat, Hayden, Kampf, Murphy, and Forsling. They may very well be a young nucleus to build around. I'm on the fence with Duclair, Hartman, and Hinostroza. All 3 definitely have the talent but there could be other prospects coming up the ranks who could be better (i.e. Sikura, Highmore, Soderlund) and make 91, 38, and 48 trade assets to fill other needs.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Feb 9 @ 5:06 PM ET
Maybe they clear salary and sign Karlasson. That would be neat. Probably more realistic than most of the trades proposed.
PepinoPamplemousse
Carolina Hurricanes
Joined: 01.18.2009

Feb 9 @ 5:08 PM ET
Maybe they clear salary and sign Karlasson. That would be neat. Probably more realistic than most of the trades proposed.
- fattybeef

Clear salary how?

How could they possibly clear enough to fit the $12 million Karlsson is going to demand under the cap?
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Feb 9 @ 5:22 PM ET
stanbow translation...

-we like our team and aging expensive under performing core
-we like it so much that the remaining of the season will be preseason for next year
-we like our team so so much that maybe edm can catch us and we can get closer to top 3 pick
-yes and Q and I will be back because we are so excited about what we have here

John McDonough
Joined: 11.30.2017

Feb 9 @ 5:29 PM ET
Know why I was brought here? To make money for Rocky Wirtz. Have you seen the difference in franchise value pre-me to today? That's right I'm not going anywhere. This fan base has the luxury of a short memory. We have been so successful that it's our past success that is our greatest enemy. Have there been mis-steps? Absolutely. Show my an organ-i-zation that hasn't and I'll show you one that has won more cups than we have in the past 8 years. It's your right to nitpick past trades and completely ignore the context for them. That is easy trap to fall into, I do it. A fall from the heights we were at was inevitable. The structure of the cap combined with it being basically stagnant is perfectly designed to screw successful teams because players expect to be paid for bringing that success.

All that said there are aspects to this collapse that are not acceptable. There will probably be changes that are more drastic than initially anticipated. But 3 cups in 6 years does buy a certain amount rope. It remains to be seen who gets hung with it.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 9 @ 5:32 PM ET
Glad any businesses you’re involved in have good things automatically happen.

In all companies I’ve been associated with (and, as a CPA who use to be in public practice I’ve been involved with many) - large and small - even with excellent external factors - things don’t happen unless people inside make them happen.

- StLBravesFan


Agree. Some lower level workers think management has minimal or no impact on an organization. Crazy.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 9 @ 5:32 PM ET
Glad any businesses you’re involved in have good things automatically happen.

In all companies I’ve been associated with (and, as a CPA who use to be in public practice I’ve been involved with many) - large and small - even with excellent external factors - things don’t happen unless people inside make them happen.

- StLBravesFan


Agree. Some lower level workers think management has minimal or no impact on an organization. Crazy.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Feb 9 @ 5:39 PM ET
I don't agree with you that these players have hit their ceiling already. I am actually pretty confident that Schmaltz, Cat, and Kampf will actually get better...and I think Hayden also will get better...
- ToewsdNKanefusd


I think you are right. DeBrincat, Forsling, Schmaltz, Duclair, Hayden, Kampf, Hartman, and Hinostroza are all 23 and under right now. Case by case it can vary but most players really start to hit their stride between age 23-25 and peak out between 27-29 years old.

I think DeBrincat will get better, Schmaltz should too as he gets stronger. Hayden should as he matures further because he is looking like a really sturdy puck protecting forward.

Just my personal feeling, but I don't expect we'll see any big improvement from Duclair, Hartman, and Hinostroza, but who knows.

Hard to say, but glad to see the team has some younger guys that are starting to step into bigger roles. We could really see Schmaltz, Hayden, Kampf take the even more PK time I think.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Feb 9 @ 5:40 PM ET
Agree. Some lower level workers think management has minimal or no impact on an organization. Crazy.
- -Doh-


I wonder how much money the Cubs have lost since McDonough left? I'm sure they are barely making a profit, hahaha, when Theo came in and the Cubs started winning its raining money on the north side,.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Feb 9 @ 5:53 PM ET
This x1000. Stan's already franked this team up enough. The last thing I want him doing is making major moves to try to fix it. As far as the Danault trade which everyone is bringing up. It's not just that he gave away a quality young center - he also handed the Habs a 2nd round pick from this season and got hot garbage instead of the defenseman he so badly needed since the summer (Stan's summer of suck tour 2015) before when his priority out of the gate was that's right Hawks fans - resigning Rundblad. Also Bowman's telling you its going to be much of the same next season...that's because he locked the core guys into those highpriced deals and then gave them all NMCs. His drafting record also has to be a concern - Jeff Osborn over on The-Rink.com (JJ's new site) just did a two part series on that...Yikes.
Come on DK. New talking points please. I get it, Stan has completely ruined the franchise and you don't like him cause you're a Dale guy and all three Cups can be attributed to Dale and blah blah blah, Summer of suck, blah blah blah. Seriously, come on dude, something new or what would you do going forward? Who do you keep who do you trade?

As far as McD - the problem is he's got to stick his nose in hockey ops. . Anyone could have done what McD did. Put the games on TV check. Ramp the frank out of the marketing dept. Rehire Foley, make nice with the Hawks Alumni. It was a no brainer. No question McD is a genius at what he does. He's the man that invented the fan convention for goodness sake. The thing is though if you didn't have that core of players nothing happens. The biggest concern is his man crush on Scotty which is clouding his judgment in regard to Stan. Proof please? It's all hearsay. JJ heard it from one of his sources. Means it could be true or it could be total bullpoop...so in other words, it means nothing. But let's stop posting as if it were fact.

Q's a HOF coach - and he's going to get paid what 13 mildo over the next two seasons whether you have him on the bench or not. I would think you make him reshuffle the coaching deck and get Adam Oates in here to fix the PP. Meanwhile the PK is still #6 in the league. The other question being asked has Q lost the room...sure all coaches have a shelf life - but it seems that the younger players seem to be doing most of the scoring (still isn't enough of it). While your core guys aren't getting it done. 19 with his 4th in 23 games last night...wow.

- DK002
I agree Q is a HOF coach. I couldn't tell you if he's lost the room. But when Q keeps searching for "consistency" but ices a new lineup every night, maybe his expiration date is in the rearview and it's time for a new voice. I have no issue with them exploring trades for the Core and rebuilding. As they say, it's easier to change the coach than 20 some odd players.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 9 @ 5:54 PM ET
I think you are right. DeBrincat, Forsling, Schmaltz, Duclair, Hayden, Kampf, Hartman, and Hinostroza are all 23 and under right now. Case by case it can vary but most players really start to hit their stride between age 23-25 and peak out between 27-29 years old.

I think DeBrincat will get better, Schmaltz should too as he gets stronger. Hayden should as he matures further because he is looking like a really sturdy puck protecting forward.

Just my personal feeling, but I don't expect we'll see any big improvement from Duclair, Hartman, and Hinostroza, but who knows.

Hard to say, but glad to see the team has some younger guys that are starting to step into bigger roles. We could really see Schmaltz, Hayden, Kampf take the even more PK time I think.

- breadbag

Regarding the bolded, I had the same reply to ToewsdNKanefusd. I think Duclair, Hartman, and Hinostroza are good young players to have at least in the short term, and hopefully resigned to reasonable bridge deals. Just not sure if I would consider them to be in a long-term core of youth to build around given there may be up-and-coming prospects like Sikura, Highmore, and Soderlund who could supplant the former and the team would need to make room for the latter which means players like 91, 38, and 48 could become expendable.

Like you said, though, you never know. Duclair, Hartman, and Hinostroza could take their game to a new level and state their case to be amongst the youth core to build around.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Feb 9 @ 6:03 PM ET
Regarding the bolded, I had the same reply to ToewsdNKanefusd. I think Duclair, Hartman, and Hinostroza are good young players to have at least in the short term, and hopefully resigned to reasonable bridge deals. Just not sure if I would consider them to be in a long-term core of youth to build around given there may be up-and-coming prospects like Sikura, Highmore, and Soderlund who could supplant former and the team would need to make room for the latter which means players like 91, 38, and 48 could become expendable.

Like you said, though, you never know. Duclair, Hartman, and Hinostroza could take their game to a new level and state their case to be amongst the youth core to build around.

- AEL_Fox


I think for now, it is like you said about signing them to reasonable contracts.
ikeane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Joined: 11.04.2005

Feb 9 @ 6:10 PM ET
In response to Chunks's port:

Don't forget about Franson in Rockford. I say Franson and Wingels for one of Toronto's youngsters (I have no idea who, I just really like the way Toronto lays) and a pick
.

Josh Leivo? See if he is the second coming of Panik
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Feb 9 @ 6:20 PM ET
Nothing earth shattering, but just another data point.

NHL.com lists 282 Dmen that have played in the NHL this season and Keith is the 14th oldest and Seabrook is the 30th oldest.

90% D of the league is younger than our big names on the back end. If you look at Dmen with at least 20 points, Keith is the oldest in the NHL.

The torch will need to be passed soon. Depending where the Hawks draft, they might want to even trade an asset to move up and pick higher. The UFA market for D is slim pickings and the Euro's they've brought in on D have been okay, but not top pair material so far.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Feb 9 @ 6:20 PM ET
In response to Chunks's port:

Don't forget about Franson in Rockford. I say Franson and Wingels for one of Toronto's youngsters (I have no idea who, I just really like the way Toronto lays) and a pick
.

Josh Leivo? See if he is the second coming of Panik

- ikeane


Funny you say that... I mentioned a Franson for Leivo trade on twitter a few days ago.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Feb 9 @ 6:24 PM ET
In response to Chunks's port:

Don't forget about Franson in Rockford. I say Franson and Wingels for one of Toronto's youngsters (I have no idea who, I just really like the way Toronto lays) and a pick
.

Josh Leivo? See if he is the second coming of Panik

- ikeane


Franson and Wingels for a 2018 second. Toronto has two second round picks, theirs and San Jose's. We can even make it a conditional second, Toronto gets the better of the two.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 9 @ 6:46 PM ET
I know there are some who hope that Toews and Seabrook just retire early. While I personally am not in that camp, I did think of another player Vincent Lecavalier who was elite for most of his career but regressed quite quickly around his 10th year in the NHL and retired a few seasons ago. So I am only sharing this just as food for thought, not because I think Toews and Seabrook are beyond improvement and should hang up the skates soon.

Lecavalier was an elite forward for most of his time in Tampa Bay and I often felt he retired a tad early (he's 37 now so he retired around age 34-35). He had a gradual decline but still solid years with the Lightning before playing with the Flyers and Kings in his final 3 years when he showed a massive dropoff in productivity. In 14 seasons, he ended up with 800+ points in a little over 1,000 games and one Stanley Cup.

Seabrook is in his 13th season (age 32) and Toews in his 11th (age 29). Are they in the same downward trajectory like Lecavalier was in his last 3 years before retiring? Maybe, who knows, but I have faith that they can rebound. I believe Toews and Seabrook need to evolve and redefine themselves as to how they can still be strong contributors to the Hawks. Yeah, I know, their salaries suck and handcuff the team. Salaries aside, if Toews is truly no longer a 1C or even 2C, then he could evolve to be a stellar 3C, and Seabrook could evolve from a Top-2 defender to a solid 3rd pair d-man who plays sheltered minutes.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Feb 9 @ 6:52 PM ET
If pitt offered a 1st for AA along with either Haglin or cole plus a good prospect

what about if Toronto offered for Keith for 1st, Timothy Liljegren and travis McDermott a kapanen and martin 2.5 for 3 more years.

- kmw4631


Why is it that fans think AA is valued really highly by other teams? A 1st plus more? Never going to happen. Maybe a 2nd. Also you want to trade with a team that may miss out on the play-offs or get beat out early so the pick isn’t really low.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Feb 9 @ 6:53 PM ET
I know there are some who hope that Toews and Seabrook just retire early. While I personally am not in that camp, I did think of another player Vincent Lecavalier who was elite for most of his career but regressed quite quickly around his 10th year in the NHL and retired a few seasons ago. So I am only sharing this just as food for thought, not because I think Toews and Seabrook are beyond improvement and should hang up the skates soon.

Lecavalier was an elite forward for most of his time in Tampa Bay and I often felt he retired a tad early (he's 37 now so he retired around age 34-35). He had a gradual decline but still solid years with the Lightning before playing with the Flyers and Kings in his final 3 years when he showed a massive dropoff in productivity. In 14 seasons, he ended up with 800+ points in a little over 1,000 games and one Stanley Cup.

Seabrook is in his 13th season (age 32) and Toews in his 11th (age 29). Are they in the same downward trajectory like Lecavalier was in his last 3 years before retiring? Maybe, who knows, but I have faith that they can rebound. I believe Toews and Seabrook need to evolve and redefine themselves as to how they can still be strong contributors to the Hawks. Yeah, I know, their salaries suck and handcuff the team. Salaries aside, if Toews is truly no longer a 1C or even 2C, then he could evolve to be a stellar 3C, and Seabrook could evolve from a Top-2 defender to a solid 3rd pair d-man who plays sheltered minutes.

- AEL_Fox


Assuming they can become what you say - you can’t put salaries aside - because if you pay your 3C and your 5/6D $16MM+, how do you add a true top-line-Center and a top-pairing defenseman (especially with Keith approaching 35) and stay within the cap?
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 9 @ 7:02 PM ET
Assuming they can become what you say - you can’t put salaries aside - because if you pay your 3C and your 5/6D $16MM+, how do you add a true top-line-Center and a top-pairing defenseman (especially with Keith approaching 35) and stay within the cap?
- StLBravesFan

Very true. That's why I'm not a capologist even as an arm-chair fan.
frafra
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 10.21.2011

Feb 9 @ 7:06 PM ET
Why is it that fans think AA is valued really highly by other teams? A 1st plus more? Never going to happen. Maybe a 2nd. Also you want to trade with a team that may miss out on the play-offs or get beat out early so the pick isn’t really low.
- Z3Hawk



well...anisimov is a good center, signed for a few years. what have the Hawks had to pay for 4 month rentals in years past? I don't think it is unreasonable for people to think that Anisimov could fetch a 1st +.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Feb 9 @ 7:12 PM ET
I have seen Dahlstrom a few times so I believe that i have a good idea what kind of game he brings. I feel like coaches will think, hey, got a skill guy here who can skate and play the game well.....maybe I can use him on my third pair as a puck mover. And Z3 + Worth the Cup bloggers are going to be very skeptical of more weak sisters patrolling the blue line!

So he skates fluid, skates smooth and will carry puck or join rush. He unloads a hard shot which never is wild, but is on net. His downside is that he absolutely is not wanting to check or throw an elbow. He has good size and you are left muttering, would you hit him, check him. What a wussy.

Perhaps he is just another version of what Gus offers. Perhaps his ceiling is as a third pair puck mover. As I have pointed out in p previous posts the past few months, we have a few whom could hold that spot and whom do you like best. Your favorite flavor. Snuggerud and Krys could be next in line to get consideration, maybe a look depending if they progress with the defensive side and both prepare at Rockford.

Of course we are lookiing for a Jokiharju and a Forsling might turn out to have a bigger upside but it is a process and it takes time.

Some others are oversea or as freshmen collegiate we do not expect them to turn pro soon. I am really intrigued by three, maybe four of these guys. But we are wasting time talking about them until they turn pro. Again just want to impress upon you that i see players like Dahlstrom possibly as third pair type. He was ab AHL alk star this season and his improved play this season has earned him a cup of coffee. Samuelson will no doubt be instructing him. I sure hope Z3, for one, has seen wiz comments and understands the new age dman concept so prevalent throughout hic key nowadays. Quest ion is, can the particular player execute plays and can his weaknesses be marginalized

- jhawk59


I don’t need “wiz” or anyone else to teach me about how defence is played so please stop talking this nonsense. A D-Man can’t do anything with the puck if he doesn’t possess the puck. Can’t skate it out. Can’t crisply pass. Can’t do anything. The key thing is to be able to get the puck - to have the puck. Do you follow this? A great D-Man aggressively challenges for the puck, aggressively fights for the puck and aggressively wins puck battles. Then and only then do the other attributes even come into play.

Keith won Norris Trophies because he was the whole package starting with the fact that he was ( and actually still is ) very tough on the puck. I posted earlier that a D-Man who is not tough on the puck borders on useless. I take that back. A D-Man who is not tough on the puck does not border on uselessness but is simply useless.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 9 @ 7:21 PM ET
well...anisimov is a good center, signed for a few years. what have the Hawks had to pay for 4 month rentals in years past? I don't think it is unreasonable for people to think that Anisimov could fetch a 1st +.
- frafra

I don't think it's unreasonable either. IIRC, the analogy for Anisimov garnering a 1st rounder comes from Hanzal netting the same last year.
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