Well then we're just gonna disagree, because as much as I like him, I don't think he's a perennial top-5 point producer who will play 80+ games.
- jmatchett383

So you don’t think he will finish top 5 specifically next season?

How many goalies were ahead of Hart on his list?
- NC Flyers Fan

Samsonov.

Samsonov.
- Sinisalo4vr

Not bad.

boom
- Scoob

It is a good point. But wouldn't having JVR on a long term deal allow Simmonds to be moved now since you have JVR under contract? Especially since your going to resign Koency to probably something in the 5 to 5.5AAV range.

Agreed. Interestly, my company sells forecasting software that works on probabilities. If we were to model G's potential point production, we'd factor in historically games played, points produced, some advanced metrics, etc. We would then forecast a distribution of all possible points he could produce, and the probability of each point value. Without getting into the math too much, we'd calculate probalisitic ranges - standard deviations away from the mean of the distribution.

Without actually building a model, looking at his historical data we would probably calculate the mean somewhere in the 70 - 75 range. That would be our forecast of what we'd expect him to produce. That would include potential games lost due to injury plus his historical production. If you are familiar with Bell curves, that would likely be the highest point in the curve, e.g. most probable.

If you picture that Bell curve and then think of the area that would be north of 100 points, there is probably < 5% probability that he reaches that again.

Sorry, maybe that was too much math before lunch
- TheGreat28

Sounds right up my alley, no time is bad time for math. I am a software developer and I have done extensive work with real-time systems that monitors and forecasts potential problems. So there is a reason why we tend to look at the situation the same.

It is a good point. But wouldn't having JVR on a long term deal allow Simmonds to be moved now since you have JVR under contract? Especially since your going to resign Koency to probably something in the 5 to 5.5AAV range.
- J35Bacher

I don't see Konecny getting that much.

A lot of people are concerned with signing Simmonds to a deal with significant term such as 5 years but I haven't heard any objections to Hextall signing 29 year old JVR to a 5 year 7M AAV deal.
- MJL

It's a valid point, and agree to an extent, but Simmonds would be 31 when entering the first season of his new deal so instead of running to age 34 like JVR it would run to age 36. Which is where the concern comes in for me.

It is a good point. But wouldn't having JVR on a long term deal allow Simmonds to be moved now since you have JVR under contract? Especially since your going to resign Koency to probably something in the 5 to 5.5AAV range.
- J35Bacher

No then the Flyers would have to trade for Brayden Schenn to replace Simmonds....

It's a valid point, and agree to an extent, but Simmonds would be 31 when entering the first season of his new deal so instead of running to age 34 like JVR it would run to age 36. Which is where the concern comes in for me.
- Fryman4

Good point.

So you don’t think he will finish top 5 specifically next season?
- NC Flyers Fan

No. I think the following players will score more points than him:

McDavid
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Malkin
Wheeler
Tavares
Marchand

Again, I hope I'm wrong, and injuries/suspensions could change things. I don't think last year was such an anomaly that he'll have a 20-point drop, but I don't see him breaking 100 again this year.

I don't see Konecny getting that much.
- MJL

I would hope for around 3-3.5M per. Depends how he performs this coming year.

Sounds right up my alley, no time is bad time for math. I am a software developer and I have done extensive work with real-time systems that monitors and forecasts potential problems. So there is a reason why we tend to look at the situation the same.
- Glak18

My thoughts exactly no bad time for math except maybe one.

It's a valid point, and agree to an extent, but Simmonds would be 31 when entering the first season of his new deal so instead of running to age 34 like JVR it would run to age 36. Which is where the concern comes in for me.
- Fryman4

I also think JvR plays less of a physical style, both ES and on the PP, that should create less wear and tear on his body.

Good point.
- MJL

JVR at age 32-34 could be great, could be OK, could be ugly. Same goes for Simmer at age 32-36 at least in my opinion. The window of time where he is older and you start to wonder if it will affect his play is larger, add onto that the added age of 35 and 36, and it gives me reason to be wary.

Which is why I am less concerned about the JVR contact than giving Simmer 5 years. Not saying I am dead set against Simmer at 5 years, but I am not crazy about it and would have some serious concerns about his level of play on the back end of that contract.

Edit: I think they will both be fine at age 32, even 33, it is just the arbitrary number I picked where I think it is valid to start being concerned about age and wear and tear.

I also think JvR plays less of a physical style, both ES and on the PP, that should create less wear and tear on his body.
- jmatchett383

Agreed

No. I think the following players will score more points than him:

McDavid
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Malkin
Wheeler
Tavares
Marchand

Again, I hope I'm wrong, and injuries/suspensions could change things. I don't think last year was such an anomaly that he'll have a 20-point drop, but I don't see him breaking 100 again this year.
- jmatchett383

Players I am not sure will. Wheeler just came off a career year as well. Marchand seems to have incredible points per game averages, but always falls short due to games played. Tavares is in a new situation, but there is nothing to prove he will score more because he has a better team around him, many times players have actually produced less points going into the same situation.

Sounds right up my alley, no time is bad time for math. I am a software developer and I have done extensive work with real-time systems that monitors and forecasts potential problems. So there is a reason why we tend to look at the situation the same.
- Glak18

You should put one of Bill's blogs into your system as soon as he posts it. Might make for a more pleasurable thread.

A lot of people are concerned with signing Simmonds to a deal with significant term such as 5 years but I haven't heard any objections to Hextall signing 29 year old JVR to a 5 year 7M AAV deal.
- MJL

Simmonds has more wear and tear and does not produce well at even strength. Not saying I wouldn't sign him for 5 years, but there's the reasoning

Players I am not sure will. Wheeler just came off a career year as well. Marchand seems to have incredible points per game averages, but always falls short due to games played. Tavares is in a new situation, but there is nothing to prove he will score more because he has a better team around him, many times players have actually produced less points going into the same situation.
- Glak18

I'm not going to drag this out, just saying I don't think Giroux will be a top-5 scorer and break 100 points this coming season. I would love to be wrong.

You should put one of Bill's blogs into your system as soon as he posts it. Might make for a more pleasurable thread.
- Scoob

I did, a couple years ago, as a beta test, results determined that everyone would get banned except MJL. Obviously I suck at my job.

A lot of people are concerned with signing Simmonds to a deal with significant term such as 5 years but I haven't heard any objections to Hextall signing 29 year old JVR to a 5 year 7M AAV deal.
- MJL

For me, it is an either / or, not a both.

There are two benefits of going JVR and foregoing Simmonds. First, you get one year of both, and then presumably have some option from the minors to replace Simmonds.

Two, as another poster said, JVR's deal kicks in now and less zero exposure when he is north of 35. Simmonds will be older at the end of the deal, assuming roughly the same length.

No. I think the following players will score more points than him:

McDavid
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Malkin
Wheeler
Tavares
Marchand

Again, I hope I'm wrong, and injuries/suspensions could change things. I don't think last year was such an anomaly that he'll have a 20-point drop, but I don't see him breaking 100 again this year.
- jmatchett383

No Crosby here?

A lot of people are concerned with signing Simmonds to a deal with significant term such as 5 years but I haven't heard any objections to Hextall signing 29 year old JVR to a 5 year 7M AAV deal.
- MJL

There's some merit to this though I think what also could be on the minds of some fans was last season's significant dip in numbers plus his injuries. Was last season simply a reflection of being injured and trying to play through it? If so, can he get healthy again for the majority of the term of a future contract?

I'm not going to drag this out, just saying I don't think Giroux will be a top-5 scorer and break 100 points this coming season. I would love to be wrong.
- jmatchett383

Considering he's only done it once, and only come close one other time, you can pretty much bet the farm that it won't happen this coming season.

I'm not going to drag this out, just saying I don't think Giroux will be a top-5 scorer and break 100 points this coming season. I would love to be wrong.
- jmatchett383

Oh I agree with you. Again there are other players not mentioned as well who could be added like Crosby or players who potentially have their career years. Just adding in commentary.