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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Hagg, WJC Showcase and more
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NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 27 @ 12:06 PM ET
No. I think the following players will score more points than him:

McDavid
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Malkin
Wheeler
Tavares
Marchand

Again, I hope I'm wrong, and injuries/suspensions could change things. I don't think last year was such an anomaly that he'll have a 20-point drop, but I don't see him breaking 100 again this year.

- jmatchett383


We’ll have to wait and see. I am personally raising the bar. 100 or + and top 5.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 27 @ 12:07 PM ET
No Crosby here?
- bulet13


No, I think Crosby and Giroux are both 6-10 types. Then again, people said Crosby and the Pens had their window closed 3 years ago, so who knows with that guy.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jul 27 @ 12:09 PM ET
I did, a couple years ago, as a beta test, results determined that everyone would get banned except MJL. Obviously I suck at my job.
- Glak18


lol
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 27 @ 12:09 PM ET
No, I think Crosby and Giroux are both 6-10 types. Then again, people said Crosby and the Pens had their window closed 3 years ago, so who knows with that guy.
- jmatchett383


If you look at history, I don't know for fact because I am not looking at the numbers currently, there tends to be an alternate between Crosby and Malkin. When one does better it's because the other is injured or some other reason.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jul 27 @ 12:11 PM ET
No, I think Crosby and Giroux are both 6-10 types. Then again, people said Crosby and the Pens had their window closed 3 years ago, so who knows with that guy.
- jmatchett383


Interesting that you think Malkin will score more. Is it because he sometimes gets more talented wingers?
arichardson22
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Jul 27 @ 12:18 PM ET
A lot of people are concerned with signing Simmonds to a deal with significant term such as 5 years but I haven't heard any objections to Hextall signing 29 year old JVR to a 5 year 7M AAV deal.
- MJL


You do bring a Valid and good point. I think the main difference between extending Simmer and signing JVR is JVR is a LW, a position we have been weak at. We also needed a goal scorer which JVR is known to be. On top of this, Simmonds plays a much more physical game as well as takes more damage being the net front guy. Plus, Simmonds ES play has been decent and JVR shined with limited 3rd line minutes and still put up a lot of goals. I guess with the addition of JVR, some of the logic can be we don’t need another aging winger who has a high cap hit with long term
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 12:22 PM ET
Sounds right up my alley, no time is bad time for math. I am a software developer and I have done extensive work with real-time systems that monitors and forecasts potential problems. So there is a reason why we tend to look at the situation the same.
- Glak18



Fortunately for me, I'm in pre-sales so I only need to understand the statistics, not actually build models. Basically, I'm not a math geek, I just play on on TV
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Jul 27 @ 12:34 PM ET
Ok, now it makes sense. Don't see it happening though. I think Panarin is looking forward to being a UFA and I wouldn't want to have to massively overpay him to extend with us. I'd rather have Jake at 8.25 per than Panarin at 10.5 or so which is what it would likely take to get him to sign an extension.
- BiggE



BUMP
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 12:35 PM ET
No. I think the following players will score more points than him:

McDavid
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Malkin
Wheeler
Tavares
Marchand

Again, I hope I'm wrong, and injuries/suspensions could change things. I don't think last year was such an anomaly that he'll have a 20-point drop, but I don't see him breaking 100 again this year.

- jmatchett383


MacKinnon is another player that could potentially regress back towards the mean. Not sure I agree on Wheeler or Marchand. Hall and Barzal are interesting choices. It will be interesting to see Barzal without Tavares. At first I was reluctant to put Hall above Giroux in potential points, but with Hischier having a year of experience under his belt, Hall could very well sustain his level of production.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 27 @ 12:36 PM ET
We’ll have to wait and see. I am personally raising the bar. 100 or + and top 5.
- NC Flyers Fan


From your lips to God's ears!
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 12:45 PM ET
JVR at age 32-34 could be great, could be OK, could be ugly. Same goes for Simmer at age 32-36 at least in my opinion. The window of time where he is older and you start to wonder if it will affect his play is larger, add onto that the added age of 35 and 36, and it gives me reason to be wary.

Which is why I am less concerned about the JVR contact than giving Simmer 5 years. Not saying I am dead set against Simmer at 5 years, but I am not crazy about it and would have some serious concerns about his level of play on the back end of that contract.

Edit: I think they will both be fine at age 32, even 33, it is just the arbitrary number I picked where I think it is valid to start being concerned about age and wear and tear.

- Fryman4



I agree with that it's just that there has not been any concern posted concerning JVR and a potential decline with age.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 12:47 PM ET
Simmonds has more wear and tear and does not produce well at even strength. Not saying I wouldn't sign him for 5 years, but there's the reasoning
- bulet13



Can you quantify the wear and tear? I disagree with the narrative that Simmonds is not a good producer at 5 on 5. Put him with the right players that he can build chemistry with and he will produce at 5 on 5.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 27 @ 12:49 PM ET
For me, it is an either / or, not a both.

There are two benefits of going JVR and foregoing Simmonds. First, you get one year of both, and then presumably have some option from the minors to replace Simmonds.

Two, as another poster said, JVR's deal kicks in now and less zero exposure when he is north of 35. Simmonds will be older at the end of the deal, assuming roughly the same length.

- TheGreat28



I see the biggest difference is LW versus RW. That's the bigger need.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jul 27 @ 12:54 PM ET
1.) If you thought Tavares was ever coming here, you are probably delusional. I am very interested to see the reaction to Tavares when he goes back to the Island.

2.) I can't see Giroux putting up 100 again, but I don't think that's so bad if he's still around a PPG player.

Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 27 @ 12:58 PM ET
From Toronto's newest blog:

Wayne Simmonds – LW-RW, Philadelphia Flyers

Simmonds has been a top-level power forward for seven seasons in Philadelphia, but his goal total dipped to 24 last year and his usually energetic play declined because of nagging injuries.

The Flyers signing van Riemsdyk to a five-year, $35 Million contract could be an indicator that GM Ron Hextall is hesitant to commit to the 29-year-old long-term and with Claude Giroux, Jacob Voracek and van Riemsdyk making $7 Million or more, there may not be room for another pricey forward contract.

The Scarborough, ON native would give the Leafs more offense along with a physical presence in their top six, something that was a contributing factor in their first round loss to Boston.

- mikeinbuffalo


Now I am not saying it will happen NOR am I advocating trading Simmonds, I am just asking if he did get traded then what would the Flyer fans expect in return?

Off-Limits:
Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Gardiner

Players Flyers DO NOT want:
Hyman, Brown, Marleau, Leivo, Ennis, Hainsey

Typical Leafs fan would say "Some turd prospect like Bracco and a 7th". Not happening.

Ok let's have some fun without fighting

What do YOU want in return for Simmonds?
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jul 27 @ 1:07 PM ET
Brayden Schenn

Go

- jmatchett383



Brayden Schenn is. If you disagree with me, well I am sorry but you just are.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 27 @ 1:15 PM ET
From your lips to God's ears!
- TheGreat28


Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:16 PM ET
No one is taking my bait....


five4fighting10
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Cherry Hill, NJ
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jul 27 @ 1:22 PM ET
No one is taking my bait....



- Glak18

Not suggesting any specific package, but a couple names that interest me are Timothy Liljegren and Andreas Johnsson. And I could never say no to someone with the last name Kapanen.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 27 @ 1:26 PM ET
No one is taking my bait....



- Glak18


My brain got stuck on....it’s not fun to think of trading Simmonds.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:31 PM ET
Not suggesting any specific package, but a couple names that interest me are Timothy Liljegren and Andreas Johnsson. And I could never say no to someone with the last name Kapanen.
- five4fighting10


Yeah these are the only names I can think of, obviously in no way a straight up trade. It would have to be some combo of players or picks as well. Also in order of want.

Timothy Liljegren (RHD)
Andreas Johnsson (LW)
Rasmus Sandin (LHD)
Kasperi Kapanen (RW)
Carl Grundström (LW)
Andreas Borgman (LHD)
Dmytro Timashov (LW)
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 27 @ 1:37 PM ET
Yeah these are the only names I can think of, obviously in no way a straight up trade. It would have to be some combo of players or picks as well. Also in order of want.

Timothy Liljegren (RHD)
Andreas Johnsson (LW)
Rasmus Sandin (LHD)
Kasperi Kapanen (RW)
Carl Grundström (LW)
Andreas Borgman (LHD)
Dmytro Timashov (LW)

- Glak18


Liljegren and Kapanen sound exciting if I am not thinking about what is going the other way.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 27 @ 1:40 PM ET
Liljegren and Kapanen sound exciting if I am not thinking about what is going the other way.
- NC Flyers Fan


If I am trading Simmonds to Toronto, 2 of the top 4 are coming back.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:41 PM ET
Liljegren and Kapanen sound exciting if I am not thinking about what is going the other way.
- NC Flyers Fan


Neither player really makes me jump for joy though. Liljegren is a RH, but he still has a lot of developing to do. Kapanen would be a nice add, but I feel his ceiling is more bottom 6 and wouldn't expect him to be a scorer like his dad.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 27 @ 1:42 PM ET
If I am trading Simmonds to Toronto, 2 of the top 4 are coming back.
- jmatchett383


I would probably do Johnsson/Grundstrom and a 1st, but that is only if the Flyers really feel they won't be able to keep Simmonds.
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