Trevor Shackles: Thursday Think Tank Thoughts on various things going on this week

Formenton!

Trevor Shackles: Thursday Think Tank
Thoughts on various things going on this week
- Trevor Shackles

Pffffft - that's nothing.

Ryan O'Reilly was willing to greet Sabres fans in a Tim Horton's drive-thru, even though he was pissed drunk.

Pffffft - that's nothing.

Ryan O'Reilly was willing to greet Sabres fans in a Tim Horton's drive-thru, even though he was pissed drunk.
- Atomic Wedgie

That's nothing compared to the time I stopped at a Dunkin Donuts and saw Phil Kessel walking around shaking everyone's hand. Then I realized he was "accidentally" popping his finger in everyones donuts so he could "replace" them with new ones...shortly after he disappeared.

Trevor Shackles: Thursday Think Tank
Thoughts on various things going on this week
- Trevor Shackles

what an bumhole, blocking all those people in that drive thru just so he could chat with a stranger.

Matt Duchene, stand up guy. I really hope he signs long term and from what I've seen out of Stone, Karlsson and Duchene, he's the most likely too.

Keep Thinking Tank....

Colorado really wants a high 1st round pick!

the Senators are at worst slightly above average.

Uh only two AHL teams finished below Belleville. You are one draft removed from that.

Twist it any way you want.

Matt Duchene, stand up guy. I really hope he signs long term and from what I've seen out of Stone, Karlsson and Duchene, he's the most likely too.
- Maverick1818

Pretty ironic, given that one of the main reasons he left Colorado was to see more playoff games.

Uh only two AHL teams finished below Belleville. You are one draft removed from that.

Twist it any way you want.
- Aetherial

Okay, we will.

Okay, we will.
- sportsdataguy

Chabot looks like he could be a top paring guy

Chabot looks like he could be a top paring guy
- Aetherial

he already would be if he played in Toronto

Uh only two AHL teams finished below Belleville. You are one draft removed from that.

Twist it any way you want.
- Aetherial

Yeah, because AHL success is a sure-fire indicator of prospect quality.

Should I be excited to see the Marlies' 5 leading scorers - Ben Smith, Andreas Johnsson, Chris Mueller, Miro Aaltonen, and Dmytro Timashov - lighting up the NHL for years to come?

Yeah, because AHL success is a sure-fire indicator of prospect quality.

Should I be excited to see the Marlies' 5 leading scorers - Ben Smith, Andreas Johnsson, Chris Mueller, Miro Aaltonen, and Dmytro Timashov - lighting up the NHL for years to come?
- Mr_Clean

Yeah, you're right, having just about the worst AHL team is definitely an indicator of above-average prospect depth.

he already would be if he played in Toronto
- sensarmy_11

Probably not quite yet, but it would be close.

Uh only two AHL teams finished below Belleville. You are one draft removed from that.

Twist it any way you want.
- Aetherial

Their farm system, dude.

Pretty ironic, given that one of the main reasons he left Colorado was to see more playoff games.
- sportsdataguy

"It was something I sat on for a long time. I wanted to wait and see how things panned out," Duchene said. "Last year when it happened, it was around the time I saw the writing on the wall in terms of the future of that franchise, in terms of the rest of my contract. We had a horrific year last year, and I could see a rebuild coming. It was something I've been a part of, multiple times, and I just couldn't do it."

The biggest issue with another rebuild? That Duchene has barely tasted playoff hockey, especially in comparison with John Tavares (24 playoff games) and Victor Hedman (65), the two players drafted ahead of him in 2009.

"I wanted to play playoff hockey. I have eight playoff games to my name right now. For me, that's not where I want to be at this point in my career," Duchene said about joining the Senators, who made the Eastern Conference finals in coach Guy Boucher's first season in 2016-17.

"I only have one shot at this. I get to play this game for however long my body lets me play it."

So, I had a chance to attend an event yesterday where there were a bunch of Sens fans in attendance. I was surprised that everyone seems remarkably content with the rebuild in tandem with the development of LeBretton.

All of them had much less anger towards Melnyk than what I do.

Most surprising to me was the general consensus that dealing Karlsson was not only good but a necessary step forward.

I heard something I had never heard before. Specifically, Karlsson does not have the support of the dressing room in the way it has been portrayed by the media. Stone, for example, is more likely to resign if Karlsson moves on.

These ideas are all new to me. I had not heard them before. Yet, there it was. A strong feeling that moving Karlsson is an essential step for improving the team.

So, I had a chance to attend an event yesterday where there were a bunch of Sens fans in attendance. I was surprised that everyone seems remarkably content with the rebuild in tandem with the development of LeBretton.

Most surprising to me was the general consensus that dealing Karlsson was not only good but a necessary step forward.
- spatso

You sure this wasn't the local chapter of the Leafs or Habs fan monthly meet?

I heard something I had never heard before. Specifically, Karlsson does not have the support of the dressing room in the way it has been portrayed by the media. Stone, for example, is more likely to resign if Karlsson moves on.
- spatso

That's not a surprise to me - Stone strikes me as this cohort's Chara: he probably wants more money, and more responsibility (i.e.: captaincy). No way the latter happens if Karlsson's still in town.

People are probably getting resigned to the fact that this franchise's star player ain't going to stay for various reasons. Moving him now BEFORE the season starts makes more sense on everyone's end but it hasn't happened yet. There needs to be stability before October, or that's all the reporters will be asking about between periods and after games. It'll just be a big distraction.

You sure this wasn't the local chapter of the Leafs or Habs fan monthly meet?

That's not a surprise to me - Stone strikes me as this cohort's Chara: he probably wants more money, and more responsibility (i.e.: captaincy). No way the latter happens if Karlsson's still in town.

People are probably getting resigned to the fact that this franchise's star player ain't going to stay for various reasons. Moving him now BEFORE the season starts makes more sense on everyone's end but it hasn't happened yet. There needs to be stability before October, or that's all the reporters will be asking about between periods and after games. It'll just be a big distraction.
- Panzer_IVA

they almost have to trade him before the season no? if he gets hurt long term this season he may walk for nothing..

they almost have to trade him before the season no? if he gets hurt long term this season he may walk for nothing..
- systemtool

There was a study done at the beginning of NHL free agency. It suggested that the way going forward would see smart teams let UFA's walk away rather than opt to be locked into aging players that could be upwards of 10 years beyond peak performance by the time their final contract expired (Toews, Kane, Shattenkirk, Tavares). The study also suggested that smart teams would lock younger players coming off entry level deals into maximum long term deals (McDavid, Eichel).

So, there is an asset management argument for keeping Karlsson for 2/3 of the season or even the full season and moving him for a modest return or just letting him walk away at the end of his current contract. The benefit under this model is avoiding an $11m cap hit for 7 or 8 years. As a fan it is hard to accept. But from an asset or sports management perspective it makes some sense (not unlike NBA).

I believe the delay in dealing Karlsson may not be the return (in terms of trade deal) but the inability of the other team (Tampa) to be able to satisfy the max demands that Karlsson has made. The media (Team 1200) discussed and tweeted that a deal was done with Tampa and an announcement was coming. It was reported in the Citizen and appeared to be sourcing the trade deal (Sergachev) directly to Dorion. It all fell apart a few days later and apologies were made all around.

Now, everybody (including the team), are guessing what is going to happen next. Karlsson has only made one comment. He said, he was disappointed by the lack of bonus dollars in the proposed contract. But we do not know if he was talking about the Ottawa or the Tampa offer. Since then, Karlsson refuses to say anything, Dorion refuses to say anything and Yzerman refuses to discuss the matter.

I think Ottawa did do a deal with Tampa. Pure guess on my part, I think the deal is still pending contract negotiations.

There was a study done at the beginning of NHL free agency. It suggested that the way going forward would see smart teams let UFA's walk away rather than opt to be locked into aging players that could be upwards of 10 years beyond peak performance by the time their final contract expired (Toews, Kane, Shattenkirk, Tavares). The study also suggested that smart teams would lock younger players coming off entry level deals into maximum long term deals (McDavid, Eichel).

So, there is an asset management argument for keeping Karlsson for 2/3 of the season or even the full season and moving him for a modest return or just letting him walk away at the end of his current contract. The benefit under this model is avoiding an $11m cap hit for 7 or 8 years. As a fan it is hard to accept. But from an asset or sports management perspective it makes some sense (not unlike NBA).

I believe the delay in dealing Karlsson may not be the return (in terms of trade deal) but the inability of the other team (Tampa) to be able to satisfy the max demands that Karlsson has made. The media (Team 1200) discussed and tweeted that a deal was done with Tampa and an announcement was coming. It was reported in the Citizen and appeared to be sourcing the trade deal (Sergachev) directly to Dorion. It all fell apart a few days later and apologies were made all around.

Now, everybody (including the team), are guessing what is going to happen next. Karlsson has only made one comment. He said, he was disappointed by the lack of bonus dollars in the proposed contract. But we do not know if he was talking about the Ottawa or the Tampa offer. Since then, Karlsson refuses to say anything, Dorion refuses to say anything and Yzerman refuses to discuss the matter.

I think Ottawa did do a deal with Tampa. Pure guess on my part, I think the deal is still pending contract negotiations.
- spatso

what kind of idiotic study says it's better to let players walk.

sure, maybe trading them is a better option than signing them long term depending on the situation your team is in, but letting super star players walk away for NOTHING is 100% the worst case scenario

There was a study done at the beginning of NHL free agency. It suggested that the way going forward would see smart teams let UFA's walk away rather than opt to be locked into aging players that could be upwards of 10 years beyond peak performance by the time their final contract expired (Toews, Kane, Shattenkirk, Tavares). The study also suggested that smart teams would lock younger players coming off entry level deals into maximum long term deals (McDavid, Eichel).

So, there is an asset management argument for keeping Karlsson for 2/3 of the season or even the full season and moving him for a modest return or just letting him walk away at the end of his current contract. The benefit under this model is avoiding an $11m cap hit for 7 or 8 years. As a fan it is hard to accept. But from an asset or sports management perspective it makes some sense (not unlike NBA).

I believe the delay in dealing Karlsson may not be the return (in terms of trade deal) but the inability of the other team (Tampa) to be able to satisfy the max demands that Karlsson has made. The media (Team 1200) discussed and tweeted that a deal was done with Tampa and an announcement was coming. It was reported in the Citizen and appeared to be sourcing the trade deal (Sergachev) directly to Dorion. It all fell apart a few days later and apologies were made all around.

Now, everybody (including the team), are guessing what is going to happen next. Karlsson has only made one comment. He said, he was disappointed by the lack of bonus dollars in the proposed contract. But we do not know if he was talking about the Ottawa or the Tampa offer. Since then, Karlsson refuses to say anything, Dorion refuses to say anything and Yzerman refuses to discuss the matter.

I think Ottawa did do a deal with Tampa. Pure guess on my part, I think the deal is still pending contract negotiations.
- spatso

This is a mona lisa of talking out of your ass. A true masterpiece

"It was something I sat on for a long time. I wanted to wait and see how things panned out," Duchene said. "Last year when it happened, it was around the time I saw the writing on the wall in terms of the future of that franchise, in terms of the rest of my contract. We had a horrific year last year, and I could see a rebuild coming. It was something I've been a part of, multiple times, and I just couldn't do it."

The biggest issue with another rebuild? That Duchene has barely tasted playoff hockey, especially in comparison with John Tavares (24 playoff games) and Victor Hedman (65), the two players drafted ahead of him in 2009.

"I wanted to play playoff hockey. I have eight playoff games to my name right now. For me, that's not where I want to be at this point in my career," Duchene said about joining the Senators, who made the Eastern Conference finals in coach Guy Boucher's first season in 2016-17.

"I only have one shot at this. I get to play this game for however long my body lets me play it."
- systemtool

Thank you for further establishing my point, those were the exact quotes I had in mind.

Maybe he somehow has guilty feelings for (in his mind) jinxing the team, but I don't see how he'd all of a sudden be changing his mind. Unless he now prefers being closer to home.