You must be new here.
- Aetherial

Judging by his sign up date...

OK. I'm starting to get the schtick here. Thanks everyone.

I figured you guys might enjoy one other prediction that my prof and I were bewildered about. Approximately 24% of NHL games go to OT. But Eklund has an extremely high percentage of his predictions going to OT. One night he predicted 8 out 10 games would go to OT, so 80%, which statistically would be extremely unlikely to ever happen. And then ZERO did. If you were building parameters around a statistical model you would restrict OT games to 24%, or something in that range, and then build in a method to disperse those more randomly as opposed to all of them happening on one night.

But I don't want to give away too many secrets on my thesis... Haha.
- uofcguy

Spoiler alert: nobody cares about your predictions.

Stay in school kid.
- Feds91Stammer

OK. I'm starting to get the schtick here. Thanks everyone.

I figured you guys might enjoy one other prediction that my prof and I were bewildered about. Approximately 24% of NHL games go to OT. But Eklund has an extremely high percentage of his predictions going to OT. One night he predicted 8 out 10 games would go to OT, so 80%, which statistically would be extremely unlikely to ever happen. And then ZERO did. If you were building parameters around a statistical model you would restrict OT games to 24%, or something in that range, and then build in a method to disperse those more randomly as opposed to all of them happening on one night.

But I don't want to give away too many secrets on my thesis... Haha.
- uofcguy

just don't pretend Corsi should be expressed to within hundredths of a percent accuracy.

Don't confuse correlation with causality.

You will be better than 96.345718323% of the hockey stats nerds who don't understand what their own numbers are telling them.

Oh and don't believe Travis Yost when he tells you that the first overall pick is worth 4, 7th rounders + 3, 4th rounders + 1 2nd rounder.

Just to be clear on three things.

1) Yes I am new here. Just started reading a few weeks as it relates to my thesis and signed up today to ask some questions on the results.

2) I'm not a kid. I'm 32 years old. Have a Commerce Degree. Worked for several years in corporate finance. Back in school getting my PHD in stats with an emphasis on sports management/analytics.

3) Also not some computer nerd who doesn't know anything about hockey. I played Midget AAA and had a try out with the Kamloops Blazers. I coach minor hockey in Calgary and my goal is to eventually land a job for a pro sports team. Not claiming to be the smartest person here, but I'm not naïve either.

Just to be clear on three things.

1) Yes I am new here. Just started reading a few weeks as it relates to my thesis and signed up today to ask some questions on the results.

2) I'm not a kid. I'm 32 years old. Have a Commerce Degree. Worked for several years in corporate finance. Back in school getting my PHD in stats with an emphasis on sports management/analytics.

3) Also not some computer nerd who doesn't know anything about hockey. I played Midget AAA and had a try out with the Kamloops Blazers. I coach minor hockey in Calgary and my goal is to eventually land a job for a pro sports team. Not claiming to be the smartest person here, but I'm not naïve either.
- uofcguy

Have you met Tanner?

just don't pretend Corsi should be expressed to within hundredths of a percent accuracy.

Don't confuse correlation with causality.

You will be better than 96.345718323% of the hockey stats nerds who don't understand what their own numbers are telling them.

Oh and don't believe Travis Yost when he tells you that the first overall pick is worth 4, 7th rounders + 3, 4th rounders + 1 2nd rounder.
- Aetherial

haha you speaking of this logic?



oh wait, this is better

Just to be clear on three things.

1) Yes I am new here. Just started reading a few weeks as it relates to my thesis and signed up today to ask some questions on the results.

2) I'm not a kid. I'm 32 years old. Have a Commerce Degree. Worked for several years in corporate finance. Back in school getting my PHD in stats with an emphasis on sports management/analytics.

3) Also not some computer nerd who doesn't know anything about hockey. I played Midget AAA and had a try out with the Kamloops Blazers. I coach minor hockey in Calgary and my goal is to eventually land a job for a pro sports team. Not claiming to be the smartest person here, but I'm not naïve either.
- uofcguy

Cool thanks Ek.

Just to be clear on three things.

1) Yes I am new here. Just started reading a few weeks as it relates to my thesis and signed up today to ask some questions on the results.

2) I'm not a kid. I'm 32 years old. Have a Commerce Degree. Worked for several years in corporate finance. Back in school getting my PHD in stats with an emphasis on sports management/analytics.

3) Also not some computer nerd who doesn't know anything about hockey. I played Midget AAA and had a try out with the Kamloops Blazers. I coach minor hockey in Calgary and my goal is to eventually land a job for a pro sports team. Not claiming to be the smartest person here, but I'm not naïve either.
- uofcguy

i work as an usher. u want me to put some gud words in for you?

Cool thanks Ek.
- BINGO!

Arizona over Tampa. My formula says so.

Just to be clear on three things.

1) Yes I am new here. Just started reading a few weeks as it relates to my thesis and signed up today to ask some questions on the results.

2) I'm not a kid. I'm 32 years old. Have a Commerce Degree. Worked for several years in corporate finance. Back in school getting my PHD in stats with an emphasis on sports management/analytics.

3) Also not some computer nerd who doesn't know anything about hockey. I played Midget AAA and had a try out with the Kamloops Blazers. I coach minor hockey in Calgary and my goal is to eventually land a job for a pro sports team. Not claiming to be the smartest person here, but I'm not naïve either.
- uofcguy

that right there was enough for me to hate you

i work as an usher. u want me to put some gud words in for you?
- DeflatedPucks

dats pure evil

that right there was enough for me to hate you
- 21peter

- gergeswillems

Just to be clear on three things.

1) Yes I am new here. Just started reading a few weeks as it relates to my thesis and signed up today to ask some questions on the results.

2) I'm not a kid. I'm 32 years old. Have a Commerce Degree. Worked for several years in corporate finance. Back in school getting my PHD in stats with an emphasis on sports management/analytics.

3) Also not some computer nerd who doesn't know anything about hockey. I played Midget AAA and had a try out with the Kamloops Blazers. I coach minor hockey in Calgary and my goal is to eventually land a job for a pro sports team. Not claiming to be the smartest person here, but I'm not naïve either.
- uofcguy

Just to be clear on one thing. Nobody gives a poop kid.

- 21peter

haha you speaking of this logic?



oh wait, this is better


- DeflatedPucks

Yeah, everyone here is pretty on to what Eklund is. For instance, when he predicts who a player will be traded to, he's right about 3% of the time, which would be the same a picking any one of 31 teams at random. His "sources" aren't true sources, and it's all just smoke and mirrors.
- jmatchett383

except unfortunately eklund isn't even at 3% =(

but on the positive note, eklund is doing one job right. making people feel better about themselves everyday by allowing people to bash his silly predictions. Everyone feels better, he makes money, win-win

I'm not quite sure what all the mathematical mumbo jumbo equates to however as a gambling aid or outcome predictor 60% win percentage makes you broke as a gambler. Be assured I can
pick as many winners by throwing darts at the wall.

Hi everyone. I’m a first time poster here. I’m doing a PHD in statistics with an emphasis on hockey analytics. Longer term goal is to get a job in the NHL, ideally with my hometown Flames!! Anyways, one thing we’re studying is whether experts can beat the house. So we’ve been studying sites like Bodog, and some of the content from “expert insiders” to see if they truly have an edge. Someone mentioned this website so I’m checking it out. But I’m extremely confused about how the results are tabulated?

For example, on March 14 his picks were 3-7, but then on the next day he reported going 4-6. The cumulative tally said 36-24 but it was really 35-25. We’ve triple-checked this so I’m guessing he either changed a prediction without notifying us readers, or he made a data entry error?

The next day he goes 3-3. So he states 39-27, although we think he’s 38-28.

Then comes the really strange occurrence that I’m trying to figure out. On March 16 (Saturday) he went 4-8, followed by 1-6 on March 17 (Sunday). So 38-28 becomes 43-42. That’s his true record. But even if we take his 39-27 as he stated, once you add 4-8 and 1-6 he should be at 44-41. Yet in his article today he’s claiming to be 40-32. It appears the 4-8 record on Saturday has been omitted from the cumulative tally, as well as yet another random loss on Sunday has been expunged from the record so 1-6 has become 1-5.

I’ve now reached the conclusion that there isn’t any mathematical model behind this simulator since errors like this would be unheard of. Instead it appears as if this entire simulator is being updated manually. That would also explain some of the other anomalies people have reported (ie teams playing 81 games, point totals not adding up correctly, etc...). I think my prof was trolling me suggesting that I look at this site. Haha.

For what its worth, being at 43-42 in this stage of the season is extremely poor. Statistically, after 1/3rd of a season (so 25-30 games in the NHL) you can start to infer the quality of each team. Ironically that's what Scotty Bowman always said...you can figure out after 30 games what kind of team you have. After that 30 game mark, simply betting on the team with a higher winning percentage would yield results of about 70% the rest of the way. So while Eklund is 43-42, betting on the favourites each night has resulted in 60-25.

Looking forward to an Oilers-Flyers Stanley Cup Final...
- uofcguy

Please god let this be a troll job

Please god let this be a troll job
- muffin_man

I hope so, it would be a good one

Look at the remaining schedule for the Wild. You’re going to tell me that they’re going to win more games than the Coyotes down the stretch? Unlikely says I. You bet your buns I’ll be there when the Wild come to town

Eklund: Crazy Weekend Brings Crazy New Projections. Do Matchups Matter? Buzz@1
- Eklund

Great call on Arizona beating Tampa, Ek.

Bolts won. Your logic is terrible. Philly isn't making the playoffs.



Goodnight

All these idiotic predictions are is Eklund's lame attempt to get clicks now that the trade deadline is passed and he can't convince even the dumbest here that teams are still talking trade. His "success" rate will always be about 50% because he's just guessing. No hockey knowledge whatsoever. Knowing Ek he'll be less than 50% because he tries to pick upsets to look smart but where he has no actual hockey knowledge he fails miserably every time.