Trevor Shackles: Bold Predictions for 2019-20 5 bold predictions for the Senators this season

I think Hainsey will have a very good year helping the younger DMen emerge as a solid NHL group.

But, of all the veterans, it is Pageau who gets the most attention. He becomes both a public and dressing room presence helping to stabilize the Sens.

My prediction is he scores 25 goals.

the only one in there I would call "bold" would be Batherson as a ROTY candidate.

that's not me poopting on him, I do feel he'll have a hell of a year........that's more me looking at some of the other rookies, the situations they're in, and thinking it unlikely that Batherson will keep up.

Hughes in NJ, better team, better linemates, more talented player

Kakko in NYR, same as above

Makar in Col, that kid is gonna light it up on an insanely talented team

Cody Glass in Vegas, I think he'll make the team this year, and I think he'll tear it up....I could see him on a line with Stone, and if so, he'll kill it.

frost, Suzuki, Q. Hughes, zadina, etc, etc

hell, even Bransstrom could make Ottawa and I think he'd have a better shot.

I know you're not saying he'll win it........I'm just pointing out that it's likely the most far fetched point in your blog

I do agree with trading Tierney, you could probably get a pretty solid return for him.....solid 2nd/3rd line center, still young....reminds me of that guy that the leafs got along with Barrie (can't remember his name)

My bold prediction for Tierney? I gets a 2 year extension and becomes one of the players exposed for Seattle. Pageau is traded at the deadline because he will be too expensive to be a 4th line center, especially for a budget franchise like Ottawa.

I also kind of expect for Anisimov to move to the LW position by season's end with all of our center depth.

Great TSN article (Yost) on performance regression for players signing long term deals extending beyond their peak production years.

https://www.tsn.ca/the-pe...-into-their-30s-1.1351451

Sens have a minor irritant with the BobbyRyan contract. He can be easily bought out next summer. But overall they have stumbled into a brilliant situation that enables them to pay top dollar to players coming off entry level deals consistent with the new model emerging for player contracts.

Chabot and others will get their money at a young age. It is crazy to pay top money to most players where their contract extend beyond age 30. There are some exceptions. Yost touches on them.

He does not discuss one huge item. Players who are poor technical skaters (Bobby Ryan) see their game fall apart once they lose that top step from their stride. On the other hand, great technical skaters (Patrice Bergeron and Patrick Marleau) are able to use their superior skating skills to play through to their upper 30's. Jury is still out but do not be surprised if Mark Stone has a serious fall off half way through the new deal he just signed. More certain that Karlsson (due to injury) will never regain the full range of his best game due to his loss of acceleration.

Much rather move on from Pageau than Tierney. Right now Tierney is their second best, if not best center.

Great TSN article (Yost) on performance regression for players signing long term deals extending beyond their peak production years.

https://www.tsn.ca/the-pe...-into-their-30s-1.1351451

Sens have a minor irritant with the BobbyRyan contract. He can be easily bought out next summer. But overall they have stumbled into a brilliant situation that enables them to pay top dollar to players coming off entry level deals consistent with the new model emerging for player contracts.

Chabot and others will get their money at a young age. It is crazy to pay top money to most players where their contract extend beyond age 30. There are some exceptions. Yost touches on them.

He does not discuss one huge item. Players who are poor technical skaters (Bobby Ryan) see their game fall apart once they lose that top step from their stride. On the other hand, great technical skaters (Patrice Bergeron and Patrick Marleau) are able to use their superior skating skills to play through to their upper 30's. Jury is still out but do not be surprised if Mark Stone has a serious fall off half way through the new deal he just signed. More certain that Karlsson (due to injury) will never regain the full range of his best game due to his loss of acceleration.
- spatso

Not a bad post. I think great players are able to adjust their game when their skating falls. Some guys just flop. Alfie was never a great skater and adjusted his game as he got older. Brett Hull is probably the best example of a crap skater but was able to play for generations.

I think teams have to give a little to get a little sometimes. If you have to overpay a guy for 4 years of his contract but you got a cup or even two during the whole contract, I think that is worth it.

To sign a guy to a contract after his prime to build your team around is probably a mistake.

I think there is give and take with contacts like this. Some will work out fine for great players. Some will work out for some years of the contract for good players. And some will just fall flat mainly due to not being able to adjust their game with their body. Really hard to know which player will go which way. Skating is a good guide but not always the case.

Players who are poor technical skaters (Bobby Ryan) see their game fall apart once they lose that top step from their stride. On the other hand, great technical skaters (Patrice Bergeron and Patrick Marleau) are able to use their superior skating skills to play through to their upper 30's. Jury is still out but do not be surprised if Mark Stone has a serious fall off half way through the new deal he just signed. More certain that Karlsson (due to injury) will never regain the full range of his best game due to his loss of acceleration.
- spatso

I've raised this issue before in the context of Jason Spezza, who has never been a good technical skater. To this day, there continues to be negativity shown towards the team about the Spezza trade. Many believe the Senators should have gotten back a better trade package than Chiasson, Paul and a 2nd, but most accounts have suggested there were few offers on the table. And as it turns out, teams were very right to be wary of a long-term deal for Spezza, because his production has dropped off a cliff over the past 2 seasons.

In fact, when the Senators were trading Spezza, they were actually dealing with a player with 1 year left on their existing contract, and just 3 years left in terms of a meaningful career. Dallas wisely contained the risk by only signing him to a 4-year extension, but even so they wasted a huge amount of money over the past 2 seasons with only 26pts/27pts to show for a $7.5M/yr investment. Imagine if he'd signed even just a 6-year extension from the Senators, how bad it would be to still have Spezza on your books right now at $7M+ for the next 2 seasons? He's quite literally signed to a 1/10 that amount for 2019/20, to play a disposable depth role on what might be his last NHL contract.

I've raised this issue before in the context of Jason Spezza, who has never been a good technical skater. To this day, there continues to be negativity shown towards the team about the Spezza trade. Many believe the Senators should have gotten back a better trade package than Chiasson, Paul and a 2nd, but most accounts have suggested there were few offers on the table. And as it turns out, teams were very right to be wary of a long-term deal for Spezza, because his production has dropped off a cliff over the past 2 seasons.

In fact, when the Senators were trading Spezza, they were actually dealing with a player with 1 year left on their existing contract, and just 3 years left in terms of a meaningful career. Dallas wisely contained the risk by only signing him to a 4-year extension, but even so they wasted a huge amount of money over the past 2 seasons with only 26pts/27pts to show for a $7.5M/yr investment. Imagine if he'd signed even just a 6-year extension from the Senators, how bad it would be to still have Spezza on your books right now at $7M+ for the next 2 seasons? He's quite literally signed to a 1/10 that amount for 2019/20, to play a disposable depth role on what might be his last NHL contract.
- khawk

A+

Nobody fell off the back of the wagon harder than Dany Heatley. He had an incredible shot but near the end he was so slow afoot that he was not able to get into the attack zone to tee up his shot.

There are probably some fans who think the Sen's would still be contenders today if Spezza, Heatly and Alfredsson formed the first line. Teams need to start asking for a discount on any contract years after age 30. There will be a few exceptions but only in very special circumstances.

However I am a big fan of role players (eg Cullen) who give you quality veteran minutes when it really matters at a very reasonable cost.

I predict that if deployed correctly and with goaltending that hopefully approaches league average, the Sens make the playoffs. The east could be quite tight for bubble teams and given how lightly other teams may take them, they may back in. Combine that with the competition for spots and the lack of respect chip on their shoulders, they have a chance, a slim one but why not.
I know for the rebuild to be complete they need to embrace the tank but building a winning culture may go further to attract and retain the quality prospects they have. Who knows, after E.M. gets his expansion $ he may yet contribute himself by blowing out of town to seal the deal.

Jesus... as if this wouldn't have landed squarely on their heads last season.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-de...million-lawsuit-1.1355026

2019/20 is already looking up!

My breakout predictions:
Anthony Duclair has a break out season with 27 goals and 50 points.
Wolanin becomes a solid top 4 Dman with over 35 points.
Batherson has a great rookie season with 22g, 35a for 57 points.
Pageau, now fully recovered from his injury, re-establishes himself as a high end defensive 3C and gets traded for 2 second rounders in the new year.

Good grief, why do people here keep want to trade Pageau - he seems to be well-liked by the crowd and does decent steady work on the ice. Is it that he's expensive? I didn't think so but haven't checked his present contract.

Sens finish ahead of Habs.

Good grief, why do people here keep want to trade Pageau - he seems to be well-liked by the crowd and does decent steady work on the ice. Is it that he's expensive? I didn't think so but haven't checked his present contract.
- Panzer_IVA

Well, he does make $3.1M, and is an impending UFA. I'd suggest that any of Pageau, DeMelo, Boedker, Tierney, Hainsey, Ennis, and Anderson are fair game at the trade deadline, and you might even see some older prospects like Balcers, Paul, and Chlapik start to be dangled. More specific to Pageau, there were apparently teams interested at the last trade deadeline, but I'm sure they were comparative low-ball offers given the difficult season he had.

Good grief, why do people here keep want to trade Pageau - he seems to be well-liked by the crowd and does decent steady work on the ice. Is it that he's expensive? I didn't think so but haven't checked his present contract.
- Panzer_IVA

he's a pending UFA and will likely ask for north of 4.5 to 5 mil.

With guys like White, Brown, Norris, whoever we draft next draft, etc.....either ready now, or soon to be ready, Pageau will likely be a 4th line option at best as they try to get more ice for their prospects.

Pageau has value to a contending team...he is a very good 3rd liner and can play up in the top 6 when required. he's very good defensively, kills penalties, can even play on the PP if required. if Ottawa can get a 2nd rd pick for him at the deadline.....HELL YES they should do it, hightly unlikely he's coming back anyways.

Sens finish ahead of Habs.
- Aetherial

hope not

Sens finish ahead of Habs.
- Aetherial

Oh dear god no.

Sens finish ahead of Habs.
- Aetherial

Premature miscalculation. Calm yourself!