Screw Kenny, Stop helping him out!
AA was a freaking gift already, not to mention the Green "deal"
taking salary back?

Screw Kenny, Stop helping him out!
AA was a freaking gift already, not to mention the Green "deal"
taking salary back?
- StargateSG1

AA didn’t produce. 1 goal and 1 assist in 9 games in EDM. He had looks with McDavid. Now he has to be qualified at 3M. Getting anything for Green was a bonus. He hit IR pretty quick there. Not a homer, but Yzerman has 2 second round picks and Kenny has to negotiate a new deal with a player who has held out before. He wants more than 3...

Hey, NJ fans are livid about the Ruff hiring! Lav and Gallant were better choices, but did they want to go there after all???

Hey, NJ fans are livid about the Ruff hiring! Lav and Gallant were better choices, but did they want to go there after all???
- HenryHockey

That is nuts!

After recording the same amount of goals and only one more point in the last 2 years bertuzzi is likely somewhere around 80-90% in his development as he has only just completed his 3rd full year and the coaching staff/team likely held him back just a bit.

I don’t think that until a player hits their late 20’s can you pin point development on age. It’s more a basis of year to year improvement. In Calgary for example we have Sam Bennett and Andrew mangiapane both 24 years old. Bennett just finished his 5th full season and in each of those he’s hovered around 25-30 points, he is likely all he ever will be. Mangiapane who just finshed his 2nd year (68 games this year 44 last year) seems to be progressing and most fans believe he has a good amount of unlocked potential left to hit. Sure he probably got a boost playing a top six role this year versus ahl/4th line last year but if he hadn’t developed he likely wouldn’t be good enough to earn that spot.
- RedC21

Study after study after study after study consistently finds that skaters, on average, peak between 22-25.

https://www.sbnation.com/...-stats-rates-age-analysis

https://hockey-graphs.com...s-for-nhl-skaters-part-2/

https://model284.com/my-m...nday-hockey-aging-curves/

To take your example of Mangiapane, it's not like him only having two seasons of NHL experience is exceptional, either. Case in point: this season there were 99 NHL rookie skaters who played at least 11 games, with a median age of 22. Mangiapane's age during his rookie season? 22.

That all being said, I think we're talking about slightly different things here -- namely what's possible versus what's probable.

Do some skaters continue to improve meaningfully after turning 24/25 years old? Sure. Not everyone follows the exact same curve. There are exceptions. Some peak a little later. And some peak super duper early. Bennett may have peaked at 20. It happens.

But at the same time I would say that you generally shouldn't project that a 24-25 year old is still going to improve significantly (or at all), even if it's still very early in his NHL career. Fans have a tendency to estimate how much "untapped potential" a player has more on the basis of how long they've been in the NHL than by how old they are, but that doesn't seem to really have much statistical support.

This part is more my conjecture, but I continue to suspect that most of the time when we see a player "peak" statistically at a later age -- say 27-29 -- it's probably not because he got significantly more talented after age 23-25, but more likely that he was underappreciated and underutilized before.

Coincidentally I think this is also why the conventional wisdom that defensemen and goalies peak later than forwards is probably false. Defensive skills are much more difficult to evaluate than scoring skills, and goaltenders require thousands and thousands of shots faced before their stats stabilize. I suspect that it isn't so much that these players peak later as it is that it just takes longer for us to be able to identify who the truly good ones are with significant confidence.

Study after study after study after study consistently finds that skaters, on average, peak between 22-25.

https://www.sbnation.com/...-stats-rates-age-analysis

https://hockey-graphs.com...s-for-nhl-skaters-part-2/

https://model284.com/my-m...nday-hockey-aging-curves/

To take your example of Mangiapane, it's not like him only having two seasons of NHL experience is exceptional, either. Case in point: this season there were 99 NHL rookie skaters who played at least 11 games, with a median age of 22. Mangiapane's age during his rookie season? 22.

That all being said, I think we're talking about slightly different things here -- namely what's possible versus what's probable.

Do some skaters continue to improve meaningfully after turning 24/25 years old? Sure. Not everyone follows the exact same curve. There are exceptions. Some peak a little later. And some peak super duper early. Bennett may have peaked at 20. It happens.

But at the same time I would say that you generally shouldn't project that a 24-25 year old is still going to improve significantly (or at all), even if it's still very early in his NHL career. Fans have a tendency to estimate how much "untapped potential" a player has more on the basis of how long they've been in the NHL than by how old they are, but that doesn't seem to really have much statistical support.

This part is more my conjecture, but I continue to suspect that most of the time when we see a player "peak" statistically at a later age -- say 27-29 -- it's probably not because he got significantly more talented after age 23-25, but more likely that he was underappreciated and underutilized before.

Coincidentally I think this is also why the conventional wisdom that defensemen and goalies peak later than forwards is probably false. Defensive skills are much more difficult to evaluate than scoring skills, and goaltenders require thousands and thousands of shots faced before their stats stabilize. I suspect that it isn't so much that these players peak later as it is that it just takes longer for us to be able to identify who the truly good ones are with significant confidence.
- Sven22

General speaking I would say I’m in agreement that at 25 a majority players are at or near their peak while the few may bloom early or later.

I was just adding that year to year progression also plays a part. My mangiapane example was based off of him doubling his goals/points in his second year while only playing 24 more games. I think the hope among flames fans is that he’ll develop another year or 2 and finish off maybe as 60 point player at best but likely 50-60. But if he plateaus at what he is now than that is what it is, but he hasn’t showed signs of plateauing yet. I wasn’t by any mean suggesting that he was going to keep developing until he was a top line player.

As far as D and G’s go, I wouldn’t say that they necessarily peak later but in a similar way it takes longer to develop the skill sets required for this positions.

When players are on offence there are set plays, guys generally know where to be and what their teammates are going to do. When your playing defence it’s a lot harder because you have no idea what the other team is going to do. You have to know where to be without the puck to counter whatever decision the opposing team may make. Goalies generally speaking have to be able to predict what will happen before it does, and be able to stop a shot faster and harder than they’ll see anywhere else. The only way to acquire these skills is through experience, and doing so at the most fast paced/skilled level takes time.

There will be zero interest in that trade in Detroit. It would take much more than JP to get the Wings to take on Neal and Russel's contract. I would not do it even if it we were only giving up Glendening. JP is just as likely to be another Yakupov as he is a bonafide NHL winger.

There will be zero interest in that trade in Detroit. It would take much more than JP to get the Wings to take on Neal and Russel's contract. I would not do it even if it we were only giving up Glendening. JP is just as likely to be another Yakupov as he is a bonafide NHL winger.
- Iago

Yeah, too much term, now if the Oil would retain $1.75M on Neal or include Kassian instead of Russel, then you would have something!

There will be zero interest in that trade in Detroit. It would take much more than JP to get the Wings to take on Neal and Russel's contract. I would not do it even if it we were only giving up Glendening. JP is just as likely to be another Yakupov as he is a bonafide NHL winger.
- Iago

Yeah. Gotta throw in their 2020 1st to make it happen.

Yeah. Gotta throw in their 2020 1st to make it happen.
- Feds91Stammer

Since Toronto had to give up a first just to get rid of Marleau's 1 year contract, even a first isn't enough for me to agree to take on Neal's 3 years. And then Russells on top of that ? Let's start with 1st's in 2020 and 2021 + JP - with the Wings returning a 7th.