Jeremy Laura: Bertuzzi’s potential and Edmonton’s Albatross

How about a little bit of Kris Russell? Might as well add to your stable of overplayed, overpaid, defensively-inclined LD. His contract is only for 1 year, too

It would ta much more than JP to interest me to take on Neal's contract. JP might be a throw in, but not the main compensation coming back. I believe that his actual value around the league is much less than Holland wants or you believe, like maybe a 4th or 5th round pick.

I guess Bertuzzi has no potential because you do not mention it.

I guess Bertuzzi has no potential because you do not mention it.
- DuranDuran

Oh man, thanks for that. Half of my post got deleted! Let me see if I can find it

Ok, hopefully that fixed it

It would ta much more than JP to interest me to take on Neal's contract. JP might be a throw in, but not the main compensation coming back. I believe that his actual value around the league is much less than Holland wants or you believe, like maybe a 4th or 5th round pick.
- Iago

Agreed. He has not gained what they’d hoped in market value. GMs still say he’s a 3rd line winger until he proves otherwise

How about a little bit of Kris Russell? Might as well add to your stable of overplayed, overpaid, defensively-inclined LD. His contract is only for 1 year, too
- MaximumBone

As long as the side dishes are good, the actual species of albatross can vary greatly

It would ta much more than JP to interest me to take on Neal's contract. JP might be a throw in, but not the main compensation coming back. I believe that his actual value around the league is much less than Holland wants or you believe, like maybe a 4th or 5th round pick.
- Iago

A 4th or 5th round pick is a pretty glaringly negative evaluation. The guy produced at a 3rd line level in the NHL at age 19 and just finished a point per game season in the Finnish league. As an example, would the cost for a 22-year old prospect with similar non-NHL numbers be a 4th or a 5th? No, it wouldn't.

I'm willing to entertain that his value is as low as a 3rd but that's the lowest I could conceivably imagine. Hell, Buffalo gave up a 3rd for the ability to negotiate with Jimmy Vesey and then again to acquire him.

As long as the side dishes are good, the actual species of albatross can vary greatly
- Jeremy Laura

Spotted Richard.

Very well said. I would like to see JP come back and play. I’m not sure how much of this is “overvaluing” the asset, or KH establishing a firm stance. One more year and it will be figured out regardless

Spotted Richard.
- MaximumBone

That is hilarious. The grocery store across the street has a “British” section with all manner of foul feastings. As a kid going to England, my favorites were Orange Squash and canned anything. Getting used to some of the standards was a test my under developed palate was not prepared for. There is a shelf of nothing but the Richard of which you speak. A new FB game is going around. Make a royal name with Sir or Lady, a pet’s name, the last thing you ate and a recent purchase. Some poor dude probably bought some smoke pork butts and ate dessert”

Sir fluffy spotted Richard of smoked butts

Bertuzzi is what he is. There’s no more potential.

Bertuzzi is what he is. There’s no more potential.
- Feds91Stammer

I disagree, but I respect where you’re at. Good to hear from you Feds!

Great blog. Surprisingly unbiased and it seems like you did your homework.

I'm an Oilers fan FYI. If Kenny & Stevvy were thinking like you and I a deal would be done immediately following the post season.

If the cap was going up even a mill per year over the next 3 I would just say no thank you and keep Neal and Puljujärvi. But the Oilers need to sign Bear, Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, Nuge, and Yamamoto to deals in the next 3 years.

Puljujarvi can't be undervalued. He still is somewhat "likely" to end up much more than a third line winger. He does have hockey sense despite some of his detractors claims. He is big, strong, fast, and talented. He hasn't even really been used on the PP yet and still has decent nhl numbers despite playing a depth role with poor linemates on a poor team.

The Oilers need him to come back and play or get good to great return. Not a player is use for creating cap space under normal circumstances. But in this nhl it has to be considered.

A deal surrounding Neal and/or Russell with Puljujarvi being the sweetener would be good value for both teams. Both Neal and Russell are actually decent players just overpriced.

Neal, Russell, and Puljujärvi for Glendening and a pick would be my preference.

Great blog. Surprisingly unbiased and it seems like you did your homework.

I'm an Oilers fan FYI. If Kenny & Stevvy were thinking like you and I a deal would be done immediately following the post season.

If the cap was going up even a mill per year over the next 3 I would just say no thank you and keep Neal and Puljujärvi. But the Oilers need to sign Bear, Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, Nuge, and Yamamoto to deals in the next 3 years.

Puljujarvi can't be undervalued. He still is somewhat "likely" to end up much more than a third line winger. He does have hockey sense despite some of his detractors claims. He is big, strong, fast, and talented. He hasn't even really been used on the PP yet and still has decent nhl numbers despite playing a depth role with poor linemates on a poor team.

The Oilers need him to come back and play or get good to great return. Not a player is use for creating cap space under normal circumstances. But in this nhl it has to be considered.

A deal surrounding Neal and/or Russell with Puljujarvi being the sweetener would be good value for both teams. Both Neal and Russell are actually decent players just overpriced.

Neal, Russell, and Puljujärvi for Glendening and a pick would be my preference.
- Aerchon

I can’t tell you how much that means, thank you for that! Oilers are a modern day heart break. McDavid and Draisaitl remind me a bit of Crosby and Malkin. The task of constructing a great team seems like it should be easier than its been. Detroit is just at the starting gate, and can take on some tough contracts to build assets. Even taking on a contract for 4 years, as long as the return is right, will still fall in line with a timetable of getting Detroit to be a competitive club.

I disagree, but I respect where you’re at. Good to hear from you Feds!
- Jeremy Laura

He’s 25. He’s peaked as an NHL player. He’s a 20-30-50 guy and that’s very good.

He’s 25. He’s peaked as an NHL player. He’s a 20-30-50 guy and that’s very good.
- Feds91Stammer

Well laid out sir. I do think there is still more there, but you could well be right. Here’s hoping for the best but grateful to have a steady and hard working contributor that cares about this team

Well laid out sir. I do think there is still more there, but you could well be right. Here’s hoping for the best but grateful to have a steady and hard working contributor that cares about this team
- Jeremy Laura

To agree with Fed here, I think the only way you get more out of Bert is with better linemates. Possible but not likely before regressions naturally occur, especially for the player that will definitely be tasked with a very physical role in the Wings top 6.

Well laid out sir. I do think there is still more there, but you could well be right. Here’s hoping for the best but grateful to have a steady and hard working contributor that cares about this team
- Jeremy Laura

I'm just bumping around some threads, and I wanted to make a mention of the delightful personality of this writer. When you consider how disgraceful a few (one above all) of the bloggers on this site are, it is like a breath of fresh air to see someone this positive, friendly and considerate. You are a gentleman and a scholar good sir. Carry on!

Yeah 25 is pretty much peak performance for a typical NHLer. At the very least you should probably assume that they are already at least at 90 percent of their max level. It is highly unlikely for players to get a ton better after this age.

Late bloomers exist, although even then most of the time I suspect their “late blooming” has less to do with true skill improvement beyond their mid-20s and more to do with opportunity.

If a player has a sudden increase in statistical performance in their late 20s (or later) my default suspicion is usually not that they suddenly got better per se, but that it took longer for their coaches to recognize their talent and deploy them accordingly. (That, or they just got much better linemates.)

Larkin took a step back posting 19 goals and 34 assists in 7 games

If this were true, it wouldn't be a step back

Yeah 25 is pretty much peak performance for a typical NHLer. At the very least you should probably assume that they are already at least at 90 percent of their max level. It is highly unlikely for players to get a ton better after this age.

Late bloomers exist, although even then most of the time I suspect their “late blooming” has less to do with true skill improvement beyond their mid-20s and more to do with opportunity.

If a player has a sudden increase in statistical performance in their late 20s (or later) my default suspicion is usually not that they suddenly got better per se, but that it took longer for their coaches to recognize their talent and deploy them accordingly. (That, or they just got much better linemates.)
- Sven22

After recording the same amount of goals and only one more point in the last 2 years bertuzzi is likely somewhere around 80-90% in his development as he has only just completed his 3rd full year and the coaching staff/team likely held him back just a bit.

I don’t think that until a player hits their late 20’s can you pin point development on age. It’s more a basis of year to year improvement. In Calgary for example we have Sam Bennett and Andrew mangiapane both 24 years old. Bennett just finished his 5th full season and in each of those he’s hovered around 25-30 points, he is likely all he ever will be. Mangiapane who just finshed his 2nd year (68 games this year 44 last year) seems to be progressing and most fans believe he has a good amount of unlocked potential left to hit. Sure he probably got a boost playing a top six role this year versus ahl/4th line last year but if he hadn’t developed he likely wouldn’t be good enough to earn that spot.

Great blog. Surprisingly unbiased and it seems like you did your homework.

I'm an Oilers fan FYI. If Kenny & Stevvy were thinking like you and I a deal would be done immediately following the post season.

If the cap was going up even a mill per year over the next 3 I would just say no thank you and keep Neal and Puljujärvi. But the Oilers need to sign Bear, Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, Nuge, and Yamamoto to deals in the next 3 years.

Puljujarvi can't be undervalued. He still is somewhat "likely" to end up much more than a third line winger. He does have hockey sense despite some of his detractors claims. He is big, strong, fast, and talented. He hasn't even really been used on the PP yet and still has decent nhl numbers despite playing a depth role with poor linemates on a poor team.

The Oilers need him to come back and play or get good to great return. Not a player is use for creating cap space under normal circumstances. But in this nhl it has to be considered.

A deal surrounding Neal and/or Russell with Puljujarvi being the sweetener would be good value for both teams. Both Neal and Russell are actually decent players just overpriced.

Neal, Russell, and Puljujärvi for Glendening and a pick would be my preference.
- Aerchon

Where exactly is Puljujarvi going to play on the Wings? He's not bumping Mantha, Bertuzzi or Fabbri. Zadina showed enough that he deserves more time in the top 6. Svenchnikov is going to need to clear waivers to be sent down so he deserves a chance. Puljujarvi would likely end up on the 3rd line in Detroit too and end up playing with Filppula or Nielsen as his center which won't increase his offensive production.

"Neal, Russell, and Puljujärvi for Glendening and a pick"

I would say no thank you to this trade. Oilers would have to add a hell of lot more than Puljujarvi and Wings would not be adding any draft pick to take on bad contracts.

Personally i don't want any long term bad contract. 2 or 3 years max...anything over that would have to include a top end young player (not a Puljujarvi type) or prospect along with a 1st round pick. If teams don't want to pay that then they can keep their crappy long term contracts.

Neal, Russell, and Puljujärvi for Glendening and a pick would be my preference.

JP would have to have a deal in place before this goes forward, and the pick would be the Oil 4th that the Wings now have.