Jeremy Laura: Detroit through 40 games, here is how my predictions have looked so far

Sheeeee-EW!

Been a hard, hard season for sure. I don’t see 6/10 running out the season. The only thing to look forward to is what happens at the TDL. I just don’t see any big moves unless a salary dump team’s involved, a good role for the Wings honestly.

Now, that being said, this has been a season of some improvements, some surprises, and met expectations. No one would’ve guess a win v TB, the guys fought their asses off and accomplished that. Defensively, the PK isn’t embarrassing, but the GA is horrendous. Greiss has had zero to be happy about because the run support’s flown the coop. I’m surprised by the depth scoring, Zadina’s been a blessing, Ras seems to have found his stride, Smith’s proven to be a beast,Glennie has been the hotted at the dot, Larkin’s amazing, Mantha’s quietly had a very strong year.

The real upside is the development of the kids in Europe and the depth developing in the minors. The future looks really good. And I see a really strong draft year, especially if Detroit can be a dump team at the TDL. Think this is the year The Captain makes the true move to push the rebuild into high gear. Of course I have high hopes because that’s who I am. But the 9 Realms are aligning, and this doesn’t seem like Ragnorok.

To bad the Wings are not playing Montreal this year. Would be looking forward to another clean sweep of Le Habs!!

To bad the Wings are not playing Montreal this year. Would be looking forward to another clean sweep of Le Habs!!
- HenryHockey

I REALLY miss playing Montreal & Toronto. The Toronto home & home games were the BEST! When I was in elementary school, I took the train to Toronto then back to Detroit so I could be there for both games (only game I saw at the Olympia and the Maple Leaf Gardens...). Greatest memory of grade school....well, that and my first...nah, ain't gonna share THAT here 🤣🤣🤣

Hope we finally break this whole 'Rona thing and get back to normal this Fall....

Sheeeee-EW!

Been a hard, hard season for sure. I don’t see 6/10 running out the season. The only thing to look forward to is what happens at the TDL. I just don’t see any big moves unless a salary dump team’s involved, a good role for the Wings honestly.

Now, that being said, this has been a season of some improvements, some surprises, and met expectations. No one would’ve guess a win v TB, the guys fought their asses off and accomplished that. Defensively, the PK isn’t embarrassing, but the GA is horrendous. Greiss has had zero to be happy about because the run support’s flown the coop. I’m surprised by the depth scoring, Zadina’s been a blessing, Ras seems to have found his stride, Smith’s proven to be a beast,Glennie has been the hotted at the dot, Larkin’s amazing, Mantha’s quietly had a very strong year.

The real upside is the development of the kids in Europe and the depth developing in the minors. The future looks really good. And I see a really strong draft year, especially if Detroit can be a dump team at the TDL. Think this is the year The Captain makes the true move to push the rebuild into high gear. Of course I have high hopes because that’s who I am. But the 9 Realms are aligning, and this doesn’t seem like Ragnorok.
- mcmastermike1968

Agreed on Europe. Berggren and Seider jumped off the page for sure. Just under a week left until TDL. I don’t know if competing teams are hoping prices will go down for salary dump/retention or what. TB has been fairly transparent regarding the complete lack of space. The are 4 or 5 teams that can eat a good chunk of salary, but they won’t do it on the cheap.

Speaking of kids in Europe, one we haven't talked about much but is quietly having himself a really really good year: Albert Johansson.

He's 20, played second pair minutes this season for Färjestad, and his 5-on-5 scoring rate per 60 was very nearly as good as Seider's. Not as good at driving possession but still above average in that department, especially for a player so young.

I am hopeful he could also be a really solid NHLer within the next few years.

Agreed on Europe. Berggren and Seider jumped off the page for sure. Just under a week left until TDL. I don’t know if competing teams are hoping prices will go down for salary dump/retention or what. TB has been fairly transparent regarding the complete lack of space. The are 4 or 5 teams that can eat a good chunk of salary, but they won’t do it on the cheap.
- Jeremy Laura

A lot of people were saying The Captain would dance w/TB for trades all day long; he's done nothing. And I don't fault him for it, generally speaking. There must be some sort of gentlemen's agreement for him not to pilfer their prospects.... At some point, though, I think something's going to have to happen. We'll see. IF a cap-strapped team wants to throw caution to the wind.....

On another note, am wondering if the league financials end up butting against the CBA....Escrow, salary deferments, etc... Something there has to give so the league can be sustainable. I'd think MOST arenas will have fans next season, but ticket & concession prices will have to be astronomical to TRY to make up some of the losses....I went back and re-looked your posts on financials, I just can't fathom the amounts being thrown around. Something here has to give as well....

Speaking of kids in Europe, one we haven't talked about much but is quietly having himself a really really good year: Albert Johansson.

He's 20, played second pair minutes this season for Färjestad, and his 5-on-5 scoring rate per 60 was very nearly as good as Seider's. Not as good at driving possession but still above average in that department, especially for a player so young.

I am hopeful he could also be a really solid NHLer within the next few years.
- Sven22

See, you bring up "..,next few years." As we get closer to the draft, I'm waiting to see if The Captain can snag another 1st, maybe later round....and grab a G prospect. "...few years." of development along with the younger kids, and all of a sudden; BAM! the cupboard is stocked and we have a really strong G from this draft ready to content along with the rest of the kids....

See, you bring up "..,next few years." As we get closer to the draft, I'm waiting to see if The Captain can snag another 1st, maybe later round....and grab a G prospect. "...few years." of development along with the younger kids, and all of a sudden; BAM! the cupboard is stocked and we have a really strong G from this draft ready to content along with the rest of the kids....
- mcmastermike1968

I’m honestly not too concerned about goaltending. There’s always starting caliber goalies available. The key is not locking into one goalie long term.

I’m honestly not too concerned about goaltending. There’s always starting caliber goalies available. The key is not locking into one goalie long term.
- Feds91Stammer

Yes! And the added caveat that Griess is coming around as well. However I would swap Bernier to the Avs for Johansson or Miska + a 6th to bolster depth.

A lot of people were saying The Captain would dance w/TB for trades all day long; he's done nothing. And I don't fault him for it, generally speaking. There must be some sort of gentlemen's agreement for him not to pilfer their prospects.... At some point, though, I think something's going to have to happen. We'll see. IF a cap-strapped team wants to throw caution to the wind.....

On another note, am wondering if the league financials end up butting against the CBA....Escrow, salary deferments, etc... Something there has to give so the league can be sustainable. I'd think MOST arenas will have fans next season, but ticket & concession prices will have to be astronomical to TRY to make up some of the losses....I went back and re-looked your posts on financials, I just can't fathom the amounts being thrown around. Something here has to give as well....
- mcmastermike1968

I basically get 3 responses to the financial posts I do. 1 - owners are rich, they’ll just keep getting more money, it doesn’t matter

2 - nothing’s going to happen, everything will be fine

3 - how on earth can the league keep going?

The hard reality right now is accepting where the league is. The salary cap right now is based on the league high finances around 2018 of 5 billion. The CBA says that 2.5 has to go to the owners. Based on that high water market, nearly three billion went to players (based on escrow around 12%). Last season, the league made 3.5 million in the regular season, and nearly three went to salaries. That would mean that the players needed to pay back 1.25 billion in Escrow (almost 50%), but they locked in at 20%. Based on that, there is still about 1.5 billion shortfall. It was added to during the playoffs for a total of 2 billion +. This year, with no fans, there is a loss of at least 1.6 billion just from the tickets. Now, the players are making 80% (72%, but 8% being refunded). Based on that, an additional 250 million in lost ticket revenue because of the players being payed 9 more games than being played. Go back to the original 5 billion dollars the cap is based on, and realize that this season’s revenue could end up at 2 billion or less. You now have owners in some markets who haven’t had ticket revenue in over a year (an average of 1.7 million per game, which will add up to as high as 120 million. That is 40 million more than the salary cap. Some teams are close to defaulting on utilities and other bills.

Essentially, legally, the onus is on the players to repay the more than 5 billion in debt. If the league can’t get back about 3 billion, it would take more than three years at 100% escrow to pay that off. Obviously that’s not going to happen. And, players are locked in to 20% escrow through next year and then it drops to 6% for a couple years locked in. Owners across the board could end up a a half billion dollars in losses per team. 15-20 teams have a total net worth of less than 500 million. Some are worth 100 or less. Having debt 5x the size of your net worth at market height will make financing impossible. The league could float 1 or 2 teams where ownership backs out. But if 3-5 go under, it’s way too much to stomach.

Thanks for caring about this. Most just don’t seem to be concerned at all, and we may have another playoff bubble. That means 0 revenue again and could tack another half a billion or billion on to the debt.

Yes! And the added caveat that Griess is coming around as well. However I would swap Bernier to the Avs for Johansson or Miska + a 6th to bolster depth.
- HenryHockey

Yeah there’s just always options in UFA. Look at this summer. Mrazek. Driedger. Grubauer. Ullmark. Bernier. Raanta. Halak. Rask. Andersen.

Yeah there’s just always options in UFA. Look at this summer. Mrazek. Driedger. Grubauer. Ullmark. Bernier. Raanta. Halak. Rask. Andersen.
- Feds91Stammer

And Reimer, Rinne, Rittich, Soros among others. Stevie will let Picard go too. There will be a good selection to replace Bernier and Calvin if necessary.

I’m honestly not too concerned about goaltending. There’s always starting caliber goalies available. The key is not locking into one goalie long term.
- Feds91Stammer

Spot on. Every long term deal I see for a G turns out to be a disaster.

Erne?

Erne?
- HenryHockey

Danny Deke!

Sure is nice to see the home white sweaters tonight. I sure would like to know the genius who changed the whites to the road jerseys. So instead of seeing all the colours of the league now all you see is white on the road teams.

Sure is nice to see the home white sweaters tonight. I sure would like to know the genius who changed the whites to the road jerseys. So instead of seeing all the colours of the league now all you see is white on the road teams.
- saintdog44

Wings wore their "Santa suits" at home in the 60's, I can't remember if it was all the time though.

The wings wore the whites full time at home for as long as I can remember. I believe it was changed just a while ago. A real stupid change

The wings wore the whites full time at home for as long as I can remember. I believe it was changed just a while ago. A real stupid change
- saintdog44

They switched them in the 03/04 season. I can't remember the reason they gave. Probably something about the fans wanting to see their home colors.

They switched them in the 03/04 season. I can't remember the reason they gave. Probably something about the fans wanting to see their home colors.
- ShadowPiggy

If I recall correctly it was because so many teams had dark-colored alternate / third jerseys that they wanted to wear frequently at home. I seem to remember Mickey commenting over and over again (as is his wont) about how the Wings would always have to take both sets of equipment on long road trips because invariably at least one team on the trip was scheduled to wear their third jersey. Switching the home/road color scheme solved that problem for the traveling teams.

I still don't like it, especially as a fan of a team that basically doesn't do third jerseys unless dragged into it kicking and screaming. Would vastly prefer they switched back, but I get why they did it.

If I recall correctly it was because so many teams had dark-colored alternate / third jerseys that they wanted to wear frequently at home. I seem to remember Mickey commenting over and over again (as is his wont) about how the Wings would always have to take both sets of equipment on long road trips because invariably at least one team on the trip was scheduled to wear their third jersey. Switching the home/road color scheme solved that problem for the traveling teams.

I still don't like it, especially as a fan of a team that basically doesn't do third jerseys unless dragged into it kicking and screaming. Would vastly prefer they switched back, but I get why they did it.
- Sven22

Thanks Sven, I had a 32 year absence from watching hockey. I moved to a rural location in '76 where games were rarely televised. Then traveled a lot for work so I got out of the habit of watching hockey. So this piece of history was lost to me.

Okay be honest, who predicted Adam Erne would have more goals than Larkin this deep into the season?

Okay be honest, who predicted Adam Erne would have more goals than Larkin this deep into the season?
- Datsyuks_Dangle

Okay be honest, who predicted Adam Erne would have more goals than Larkin this deep into the season?
- Datsyuks_Dangle

Steve Yzerman lmao