Ryan Wilson: Finding a new goalie: Linus Ullmark Finding a new goalie: Linus Ullmark

I wouldnt be mad if the Pens picked him up. Playing behind one of the worst teams in NHL history his metrics here are better than Jarry's haha

I wouldnt be mad if the Pens picked him up. Playing behind one of the worst teams in NHL history his metrics here are better than Jarry's haha
- MattStrat

With equally as small of a sample size. I wouldn't HATE if they did this, but I think they can do better.

Can someone explain to me how the quality, great and bad starts are quantified? Like is it his individual performance? the teams play? Quality of opponent factored in?

My first thought was that its individual performance over all of his starts....but if that were the case the %'s would have to add to 100%, no? For Ullmark its 33% (quality), 75%(great) and 77%(bad)

With equally as small of a sample size. I wouldn't HATE if they did this, but I think they can do better.
- Rinosaur

I think they can too...but a positive of this route is it doesn't cost assets and Hexburke seem like they want to keep more assets than spend now, which is obviously a reversal over O'le Jimmy Ruth.

Can someone explain to me how the quality, great and bad starts are quantified? Like is it his individual performance? the teams play? Quality of opponent factored in?

My first thought was that its individual performance over all of his starts....but if that were the case the %'s would have to add to 100%, no? For Ullmark its 33% (quality), 75%(great) and 77%(bad)
- MattStrat

A quality start is a game in which a goalie posts at least league avg save percent. Anything over 60% quality starts is considered good. It misses a lot of context in terms of shot difficulty faced but can give an idea of consistency for a goalie.

Last 2 seasons all strengths.

Jarry 11.78 gsaa in 72 games.

Ullmark 11.11 gsaa in 54 games.

So in theory Ullmark has produced a slightly better gsaa rate but is a marginal upgrade at best.

A quality start is a game in which a goalie posts at least league avg save percent. Anything over 60% quality starts is considered good. It misses a lot of context in terms of shot difficulty faced but can give an idea of consistency for a goalie.
- Feds91Stammer

Ok thanks for that...I'm still trying to wrap my head around why the total of those three %'s is 185% though haha

Last 2 seasons all strengths.

Jarry 11.78 gsaa in 72 games.

Ullmark 11.11 gsaa in 54 games.

So in theory Ullmark has produced a slightly better gsaa rate but is a marginal upgrade at best.
- Feds91Stammer

Does the team's play in front of a goalie factor into GSAA?...I think it does...if not, it must be considered.

My fear with Jarry is he's a mental midget now because of what happened this past post season...which may of happened because he's a mental midget in the first place....

Ullmark could have ice water in his veins...

Is Desmith not gonna be recognized? Is his injury serious enough not to give him a chance? Why not roll with these 2, then trade for someone at the deadline if they don't pan out?

I really do fear that Hextall will go after Risto. Just my random thought for the day.

Last 2 seasons all strengths.

Jarry 11.78 gsaa in 72 games.

Ullmark 11.11 gsaa in 54 games.

So in theory Ullmark has produced a slightly better gsaa rate but is a marginal upgrade at best.
- Feds91Stammer

Yeah, that's why I was saying I wouldn't HATE it if they got him, but I think they can do better.

I still like the idea of gambling on Bishop, but I have no clue what it would take to get him or if Dallas is even looking to move him out.

Ok thanks for that...I'm still trying to wrap my head around why the total of those three %'s is 185% though haha
- MattStrat

Those are percentiles. Higher is better. Those aren’t actual start percentages.

Does the team's play in front of a goalie factor into GSAA?...I think it does...if not, it must be considered.

My fear with Jarry is he's a mental midget now because of what happened this past post season...which may of happened because he's a mental midget in the first place....

Ullmark could have ice water in his veins...
- MattStrat

Yes gsaa factors in scoring chances and high dangers. It’s currently the best evaluation tool for a goalie imo.

Yeah, that's why I was saying I wouldn't HATE it if they got him, but I think they can do better.

I still like the idea of gambling on Bishop, but I have no clue what it would take to get him or if Dallas is even looking to move him out.
- Rinosaur

If healthy they have 3 goalies and his NMC would force them to protect him over Oettinger in the expansion draft. Don’t think it would cost a ton.

Last 2 seasons all strengths.

Jarry 11.78 gsaa in 72 games.

Ullmark 11.11 gsaa in 54 games.

So in theory Ullmark has produced a slightly better gsaa rate but is a marginal upgrade at best.
- Feds91Stammer

If you include playoffs, Jarry goes down about 7 or 8.

If you include playoffs, Jarry goes down about 7 or 8.
- Tojo.

And if you include 18/19 Ullmark drops about 6 or 7. I just tried to keep as much of an apples to apples comparison as possible.

Is Desmith not gonna be recognized? Is his injury serious enough not to give him a chance? Why not roll with these 2, then trade for someone at the deadline if they don't pan out?
- nateca444

The issue is they are both 1Bs at best and so is Ullmark. Pens need a legit number 1.

If healthy they have 3 goalies and his NMC would force them to protect him over Oettinger in the expansion draft. Don’t think it would cost a ton.
- Feds91Stammer

Good point.

The issue is they are both 1Bs at best and so is Ullmark. Pens need a legit number 1.
- Feds91Stammer

I think Andersen at the right price makes sense. It's pretty obvious now that he's not the reason TOR keeps choking. They're very capable choking without him.

I know you're not a fan, but I'd be in for a Jarry/Kuemper swap.

I think Andersen at the right price makes sense. It's pretty obvious now that he's not the reason TOR keeps choking. They're very capable choking without him.

I know you're not a fan, but I'd be in for a Jarry/Kuemper swap.
- Rinosaur

I mean there’s a lot of options that should be better than Jarry but how many of them are significant upgrades that can do it in the postseason? I also think the elite options should be highly considered because you should expect more regression from your older players.

Everybody is concerned about save percentage. If you give up 3 goals on 25 shots people are upset but if you give up 3 goals on 50 shots people are happy. The bottom line is you gave up 3 goals. If you team limits the shots against your percentage is always going to look bad. So what is the point?

I mean there’s a lot of options that should be better than Jarry but how many of them are significant upgrades that can do it in the postseason? I also think the elite options should be highly considered because you should expect more regression from your older players.
- Feds91Stammer

Elite for sure, but if any elite options come available I have to think there will be teams who'd be more aggressive with their offers than the Pens.

Everybody is concerned about save percentage. If you give up 3 goals on 25 shots people are upset but if you give up 3 goals on 50 shots people are happy. The bottom line is you gave up 3 goals. If you team limits the shots against your percentage is always going to look bad. So what is the point?
- broncohorvath

Seriously?

I really do fear that Hextall will go after Risto. Just my random thought for the day.
- Rinosaur

Nothing happens in a blanket, but there is a scenario where Risto could be a decent pickup. I look at him as a more physical (maybe a bit higher offensive upside) Matheson. So if you were to unload Matheson and bring in a steady LD to play with him it could be a good match.

I don't know what a deal looks like because I don't want to trade away a bunch of picks/prospects for him and you would need to move a significant contract with him.

I'd definitely trade Pettersson or Matheson for him straight up to get out from under those contracts.