Ben Shelley: Analyzing the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet

I'd probably take the picks considering Carolina has lost some important players and the pick could become a mid rounder. If I were KK, I'd hate to go back to MTL and have to live up to that contract, even for a year.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that either team can extend him this season at a lesser cap. For what it's worth, my take is that KK, like everybody else, knows he isn't worth that money right now, but Carolina probably told him show me what you got.

I'd probably take the picks considering Carolina has lost some important players and the pick could become a mid rounder. If I were KK, I'd hate to go back to MTL and have to live up to that contract, even for a year.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that either team can extend him this season at a lesser cap. For what it's worth, my take is that KK, like everybody else, knows he isn't worth that money right now, but Carolina probably told him show me what you got.

Think of the $6.1M as a signing bonus and 1st year's salary. KK then gets signed in season for 5 x $4.25M to $4.5M. A much better contract for hopefully what he will be worth.

I agree! The 6.1 M is like a signing bonus of a beal they already have in place for an extention.

This also tells me that the Canes may believe there is a chance Trochek (UFA) won’t resign next summer! They may give KK his money! At the very least, they have an insurance policy!

The following summer, it’s Stall who’s a UFA. You can never have to many centers and the Canes don’t seem to like negotiating with UFAs.

If I’m the Habs I think I sign him and trade him next year!

I agree! The 6.1 M is like a signing bonus but I think he’d resign for a bit less than 4M because you have to factor in the 6.1 if they want to give him a bridge deal. KK could play the wing for a while.

This also tells me that the Canes may believe there is a chance Trochek (UFA) won’t resign next summer! At the very least, they have an insurance policy!

The following summer, it’s Stall who’s a UFA. You can never have to many centers and the Canes don’t seem to like negotiating with UFAs.

If I’m the Habs I think I sign him and trade him next year!
- andrest

I think KK burned the Montreal bridge and wants out of that pressure cooker.

I think KK burned the Montreal bridge and wants out of that pressure cooker.
- HenryHockey

It’s over for him long term in MTL. The question is do you take the pics or sign him and trade him in a year?

Here's my thoughts on this:

Big winner: KK - He gets a bigger contract this year than he was going to. He can force the hand of either team he plays with to want to take him to RFA next year and not qualify him so maybe he goes to UFA? (I think thats how it works?) If he DOES show he's worth it then good for him. He bet on himself and wins. I don't really see a downside for him here.

Habs: If they match they are in cap trouble for this year and possibly moving forward for qualifying him and having control beyond this year. If they take the picks, the 3rd round pick is a nice little edition but meh. The first round pick is a bigger gamble both ways. It could be a top 15 pick or a bottom pick in the late 20s. It's not a player they have in their system for a year let alone would be be ready for 2022/23? Unlikely unless it's a top 3 - 5 pick. It really hurts for their current window and core to lose KK.

Canes: Pretty decent play. They get the media attention during August for hockey which is big. They sign a guy who's shown he can play in the NHL so far for one year. Yeah it's an overpay but what other RFA would sign for that? Is a top pick in his draft? Or what other UFA would you sign for this money? Yes I get the letting Hamilton walk/Ned trade (but I've heard some people don't believe in him?) Anyway, the 3rd rounder doesn't matter. The first, aslong as it isn't a top 10 pick is a fine deal. Habs wouldn't draft anyone with it for a full year while KK shows what he's got. He's had 3 years of development already so the canes can insert him as a wing/center to see how he does moving forward.

All in all, I think it's a fine deal for Carolina but it could go horribly wrong should they give up a top pick.

Here's my thoughts on this:

Big winner: KK - He gets a bigger contract this year than he was going to. He can force the hand of either team he plays with to want to take him to RFA next year and not qualify him so maybe he goes to UFA? (I think thats how it works?) If he DOES show he's worth it then good for him. He bet on himself and wins. I don't really see a downside for him here.

Habs: If they match they are in cap trouble for this year and possibly moving forward for qualifying him and having control beyond this year. If they take the picks, the 3rd round pick is a nice little edition but meh. The first round pick is a bigger gamble both ways. It could be a top 15 pick or a bottom pick in the late 20s. It's not a player they have in their system for a year let alone would be be ready for 2022/23? Unlikely unless it's a top 3 - 5 pick. It really hurts for their current window and core to lose KK.

Canes: Pretty decent play. They get the media attention during August for hockey which is big. They sign a guy who's shown he can play in the NHL so far for one year. Yeah it's an overpay but what other RFA would sign for that? Is a top pick in his draft? Or what other UFA would you sign for this money? Yes I get the letting Hamilton walk/Ned trade (but I've heard some people don't believe in him?) Anyway, the 3rd rounder doesn't matter. The first, aslong as it isn't a top 10 pick is a fine deal. Habs wouldn't draft anyone with it for a full year while KK shows what he's got. He's had 3 years of development already so the canes can insert him as a wing/center to see how he does moving forward.

All in all, I think it's a fine deal for Carolina but it could go horribly wrong should they give up a top pick.
- Aaron_85

so basically it's a smart move, as long as Bergevin doesn't walk away...

“Habs: If they match they are in cap trouble for this year and possibly moving forward for qualifying him and having control beyond this year. If they take the picks, the 3rd round pick is a nice little edition but meh. The first round pick is a bigger gamble both ways. It could be a top 15 pick or a bottom pick in the late 20s. It's not a player they have in their system for a year let alone would be be ready for 2022/23? Unlikely unless it's a top 3 - 5 pick. It really hurts for their current window and core to lose KK.”

Another thing is they lost Danault, so this would be losing 2 key centers that this team had, if they choose to go with the picks. But, they now would have 2 first round picks, I think, for next years draft. Could they possibly put together a package with those 2 firsts for Eichel, if 100% healthy of course, or another big name player? It’s a pretty tough decision, but I don’t think any move Canadiens makes would be the wrong decision.

so basically it's a smart move, as long as Bergevin doesn't walk away...
- Pat1993

No I still thinks a good deal. I doubt it'll be a top 3 pick or top 10 pick. If I was Carolina I would do this everyday.

“Habs: If they match they are in cap trouble for this year and possibly moving forward for qualifying him and having control beyond this year. If they take the picks, the 3rd round pick is a nice little edition but meh. The first round pick is a bigger gamble both ways. It could be a top 15 pick or a bottom pick in the late 20s. It's not a player they have in their system for a year let alone would be be ready for 2022/23? Unlikely unless it's a top 3 - 5 pick. It really hurts for their current window and core to lose KK.”

Another thing is they lost Danault, so this would be losing 2 key centers that this team had, if they choose to go with the picks. But, they now would have 2 first round picks, I think, for next years draft. Could they possibly put together a package with those 2 firsts for Eichel, if 100% healthy of course, or another big name player? It’s a pretty tough decision, but I don’t think any move Canadiens makes would be the wrong decision.
- LAkings96

They moving Suzuki or caufield in that package? I would guess Buffalo would want a roster player in return. A young guy. Not Anderson.

They also dont have the cap space for another big named player. I think its a difficult position for the Canadiens.

No I still thinks a good deal. I doubt it'll be a top 3 pick or top 10 pick. If I was Carolina I would do this everyday.
- Aaron_85

the habs managed to grab a guy like Cole Caufield at #15, so you never know how this pick could come back and haunt you, especially if KK doesn't pan out in Carolina...

also if we're talking purely from a hockey perspective, I hope Waddell actually had some interest in Kotkaniemi and believes he has the potential to become an important part of his team, if Bergevin lets him walk. would be kinda sad if the move was uniquely out of spite, "in the name of vengeance" lol

the habs managed to grab a guy like Cole Caufield at #15, so you never know how this pick could come back and haunt you, especially if KK doesn't pan out in Carolina...

also if we're talking purely from a hockey perspective, I hope Waddell actually had some interest in Kotkaniemi and believes he has the potential to become an important part of his team, if Bergevin lets him walk. would be kinda sad if the move was uniquely out of spite, "in the name of vengeance" lol
- Pat1993

According to LeBrun, Canes tried trading for him the past week and couldn't. Even if they like KK as a player, they are gambling significantly on him improving to be worth his contract and acquisition assets. He's been a rather average player so far. If I were Bergevin I'd let him go and take the assets.

Whoever KK plays for, Montreal or Carolina he should be well surrounded. However I believe he has a better shot at success in Carolina because let's face it, not the same pressure at all. If he makes a mistake in Carolina, they won't talk about it for weeks down there. The other issue though for Carolina is what happens if KK under performs and gets outscored/hustled by a guy like Necas (who at this point is way better than KK and its not even close) who will be up for a raise next summer? How much will Necas want? Pretty sure it will be north of 6.1 million. The point is they set the salary bar within their own team!

KK wins this HUGE

If KK wants out of Montreal and Montreal matches, then get gets to be paid Big $$ year after year until he becomes an UFA. Just keep signing the QO that the Habs will HAVE to make every year

If Carolina gets him, they likely have a deal in place for an extension he can sign in January. ie: In the negotiating process, they agreed to some kind of 4 year 16 Million dollar deal. (This is an easy match for Bergy so this on it's face won't work. They give him 6.1 on a 1 year QO to get him out of Montreal, then in January, he signs a 3 year extension for 10 Million., and from KK's perspective he gets the same 16 million over 4 years. If Montreal matches and keeps him for 4 years, they will end up paying him at least 24.4 million. WIN WIN WIN

What is Carolina thinking? How to ruin your salary structure on a 3rd line player! There may be a tad of animosity in their dressing room this season!

That's not how Qualifying offers work. After next season, they'll have to qualify him at 6.1 or he will become a UFA. There's no 'next year we'll pay him 4 million.'

He makes 6.1 for this season and the next. This is where Carolina may have shot themselves in the foot.

Carolina finished 11th 2 years ago, 6th last year, and 3rd this year in the standings, they were taken out by the champion Lightning.

So trending says that this team should probably be a top 5 team in the league, yet there's this belief that their defense was downgraded and so was their goaltending...

To me, it's been mostly sideways. They lose Hamilton, they get DeAngelo and Bear. They lose Nedelkjovic, they get Andersen and Raanta... (edit: oh and Seattle poached a lot of roster players away from their competition and only took Geekie from these guys... a 13th forward basically... so they have this additional advantage)

If they get KK, it'll give them a depth player who's also a dagger in the line-up (scores unexpected goals like a Blake Coleman).

The picks they would lose would be a late first and a late third... MTL better consider that when they make this decision.

The offer was pure spite by the Hurricane's. Koke is only 21 and will soon take a huge jump in his game however the Caines don't need a center at this time and Koke isn't worth $6 mil.

My question is, what does BINGO think. Partly in jest yes, but I need to know his SK thoughts on this. Smart man for a flat lander.

Kotkaniemi isn't worth $6 million per year. That much is obvious.

But this is the route they chose to take, and if you actually want to nab a player with an offer sheet you're going to have to overpay them.

I also don't think they would have done this without already knowing what a long term extension for Kotkaniemi looked like. He'll be a real good player. Not exceptional, but with the right support a solid middle six player at worst going forward.

My question is, what does BINGO think. Partly in jest yes, but I need to know his SK thoughts on this. Smart man for a flat lander.
- Flamin_Irishmin

HEY. HOLD ON.

Personally I would have avoided all this and signed Hamilton instead, but there's no question that the team depth is a lot better.

Kotkaniemi will be fine either way. If the Habs match to try to save face, you chuckle and carry on. If they don't, hey, you've got a guy who struggled a bit last season but is only 21 and was third overall just a couple years ago.

They moving Suzuki or caufield in that package? I would guess Buffalo would want a roster player in return. A young guy. Not Anderson.

They also dont have the cap space for another big named player. I think its a difficult position for the Canadiens.
- Aaron_85

That’s where I guess the Habs would hope the 2 firsts would be enough for Buffalo to just take a top prospect and a mid 6 player instead of Suzuki or Cole. Agreed it, it would be extremely difficult to grab Eichel, but no other team, I believe, would be able to send 2 firsts in next years draft. But I was just using him as an example really. Being able to have an extra first as a trade bargain is always good thing, and just might help get the Habs a better player then KK.

They can sign an extension next year that can be multi years and end up being lower AAV than $6.1M. It doesn't need to be year to year contracts as an RFA.

Kotkaniemi isn't worth $6 million per year. That much is obvious.

But this is the route they chose to take, and if you actually want to nab a player with an offer sheet you're going to have to overpay them.

I also don't think they would have done this without already knowing what a long term extension for Kotkaniemi looked like. He'll be a real good player. Not exceptional, but with the right support a solid middle six player at worst going forward.
- BINGO!

I am blaming you for all this.